Donald Trumps Approval Rating Among Republicans Is Far Less Impressive Than He Suggests New Poll Indicates
President Donald Trump has often touted his strong approval ratings among Republican voters in recent weeks. But, according to poll data released Tuesday, that support may be far less impressive than he makes it out to be.
The survey, conducted by The Washington Post, originally found that Donald Trumps approval rating among Republicans was about 85 percent. Those results were on par with similar polls done in recent months, including one by the Wall Street Journal and NBC News from July that found his approval rating among conservative voters was as high as 88 percent.
But then, the Posts split poll-takers who identified as Republican into three separate groups: people who strongly identify with the GOP, people who identify as Republican but not strongly and the remaining group who technically call themselves independents but say they lean toward the Republican Party. The results after these distinctions were made showed glaring discrepancies.
Trumps overall approval rating for those who identified as strongly Republican is an overwhelming 93 percent. But voters who identified themselves in this category make up less than 20 percent of Americans likely to vote in elections.
On Sunday, Trump tweeted that his approval ratings are very good and that they may even lead to a Red Wave this November.
Do not underestimate the UNITY within the Republican Party!
Donald J. Trump
Approval Ratings Of Past Presidents
When former-President Trump left office, his disapproval rate stood at fifty-seven percent, with 38.6 percent of the public supporting him. The highest approval rating Trump had while in office was in In April, Congress passed the CARES Act which distributed the first round of stimulus checks and bolstered unemployment benefits for the more than twenty-million workers who lost their jobs.
However, a few short months later, Donald Trumps approval rating took a nose dive to its lowest point in his presidency as he left office —in part as a result of the events on January 6th.
When former-president Obama was elected, he entered office with a historic approval rating of sixty-four percent. However, with the impacts of the financial crisis led this level of support to began to fall. Aside from a few peaks in popularity, the majority of Obamas term, the disapproval rate was above fifty percent. However, unlike Donald Trump, he left office with a net positive approval rate.
George W. Bush
Two Different Paths To 41%
President Biden and former president Trump dont have a lot in common. But, they share the inauspicious distinction of having the lowest approval ratings in modern history for a president 500 days into his first term. The fivethirtyeight.com tracker has Bidens net approval rating at a dismal -13.3, two points lower than Trumps -11 in June of 2018.
But, the paths they took to these dismal ratings are very different.
Trump began his presidency with little support from independents and some skepticism among his own base. By the 2018 midterm election, Trump had consolidated his base, but remained deeply unpopular with independent voters. Meanwhile, Biden started his tenure with strong support from his partisans and decent approval ratings among independent voters. But, Biden lost altitude with both in the late summer/early fall of last year and has yet to regain that support.
The question now is whether the different routes their subpar approval ratings can tell us anything about the likely outcome of the November midterm.
However, opinions of Trump among independents started low and remained low throughout Trumps first two years in office. Gallup polling from the spring of 2017 found Trumps job approval ratings among independents at an anemic 36 percent. By the summer of 2018 they stayed in that same range . By October, just 38 percent of independents approved of the job Trump was doing in office.
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Voxs German Lopez is here to guide you through the Biden administrations burst of policymaking. .
As for Trump, Bidens 42.9 percent approval rating right now is only slightly higher than Trumps 42 percent on the eve of the 2018 midterms, when Republicans lost 40 House seats.
The one potential silver lining for Biden is that the trajectory of Trumps numbers shows that some improvement in the second year is possible, albeit rare. Trumps approval rating hit its lowest point in 2017 but improved by about 5 points over 2018, which likely helped him avoid an even worse midterm defeat. It is possible that if conditions in the country improve, Bidens numbers could rebound.
Of course, things could also get worse.
A Majority Of Republicans Want Trump To Stay In Politics About Four
Overall, roughly three-in-ten Americans say Donald Trump should remain a major national political figure, while two-thirds say he should not. However, there are wide partisan divides on this question. About six-in-ten Republicans and Republican leaners say the former president should continue to play a major role in national politics, while nearly all Democrats and Democratic leaners say he should not.
The share of Republicans saying Trump should continue to be a major national political figure has declined slightly since September 2021 .
The 63% of Republicans who would like to see Trump remain a major figure include 39% who would like to see Trump run for president himself in 2024. The remainder say while they would like Trump to remain a national political figure, they would prefer he use his position to support another presidential candidate that shares his views.
Although Republicans and Republican leaners generally say Trump should remain a major national political figure, there are demographic differences within the GOP on this question.
Moderate and liberal Republicans are less likely than conservative Republicans to say Trump should remain on the national political stage .
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Bidens Support For A Haitian Dictator Is Solid Proof He Puts Politics Above Everything Else
How low can Joe go?
President Bidens job approval rating has once again plummeted, hitting a fresh record low of 31% as a majority of Democratic voters even admitted they would like him booted from the 2024 election, a new poll has found.
Fifty-four percent of Democrats said Biden should not mount a re-election run, compared to 40% who said the flailing leader should, a Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday shows.
Overall, a telling 71% of Americans oppose the 79-year-old commander-in-chief running for a second term.
In the year and a half since Biden entered the White House, his support in polls has been steadily shrinking.
The Q-poll shows that less than a third of Americans approve of the job he is doing, while 60% disapprove.
Among Democrats, that margin is 71% who approve versus 18% who disapprove. Among Republicans, its 94% versus 2%.
The presidents approval rating is in negative territory across all demographic groups except African Americans. More than half of the black community approve of his job performance, compared to 28% who disapprove.
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Bidens standing in the Hispanic community, however, is worrisome with just one in five Hispanics approving of his ability to lead. Seven in 10 disapprove.
Meanwhile, the poll also showed that just shy of two-thirds of Americans are against former President Donald Trump running in 2024.
Poll: Trump’s Approval Rating Remains Stable Ahead Of Gop Convention
WASHINGTON President Donald Trump’s overall job approval rating and voters’ assessments of his handling of the coronavirus pandemic have remained stable this summer, according to data from the NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Tracking Poll, despite a spike in the number of virus cases and a rising death toll.
Ahead of the Republican National Convention, which began Monday, it’s good news for the president that his base of supporters shows no signs of leaving him.
Among American adults, Trump has averaged a 44 percent job approval rating in the tracking poll from those who either “strongly” or “somewhat” approve of his overall job performance. Approval for his handling of the coronavirus is similar, at 43 percent.
In the newest available data, 45 percent of American adults strongly or somewhat approve of the president’s job performance, while 54 percent somewhat or strongly disapprove. Forty-four percent of adults strongly or somewhat approve of his handling of the pandemic, while 54 somewhat or strongly disapprove.
However, the president’s approval ratings have consistently been lower than those of governors across the country. This week’s data show that 56 percent of adults strongly or somewhat approve of their governors’ handling of the pandemic. Forty-one percent of adults somewhat or strongly disapprove.
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The U.S. is nearing 180,000 coronavirus deaths.
He later added, “Hopefully, we’ll call it the final phase of the pandemic.”
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Trump Approval Slips Below Majority Level Among White Americans Men
Before the recent downturn in public support, the president had averaged 47% job approval this year. The eight-point average decline from early 2020 to late May and June is apparent among all key subgroups.
Trump now has approval ratings below the majority level among groups that are typically more favorable to him, including non-Hispanic white Americans, men, older Americans, Southerners and those without a college degree.
He does retain majority support among white Americans without a college degree, at 57%, albeit down from 66% among the group in January to early May.
The accompanying table shows the changes in Trump’s job approval among demographic subgroups over the past month compared with the first five months of 2020.
Approval Ratings By State
Approval ratings vary greatly by state and can indicate how a state will vote in the upcoming 2020 Presidential Election. Since his inauguration in January 2017, President Trumps net approval has decreased in every state. President Trumps approval rating is decreasing in important states that he won in his 2016 election, including swing states and states that are consistently Republican in every election. The three key states Trump had in his 2016 election are Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, all of which currently have approval ratings under 50%.
Below are each states approval ratings for President Trump as of February 2020. Data is from a poll by the Morning Consult.
- Net approval since Trump took office has decreased by 22 percentage points
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The Claim: President Joe Bidens Approval Rating Is 39% And Lower Than Donald Trumps Ever Was
After the chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in August, President Joe Biden’s approval ratings took a hit. But some online posts exaggerate the depth of the drop.
Text in reads, “Joe Biden’s approval falls to 39 percent, worse than Trump’s approval ever.” The post did not indicate which poll it’s referring to.
A similar post accumulated 46,000 likes in six days before it was deleted. Other claims in this vein have racked up hundreds of interactions on Facebook and Instagram, according to CrowdTangle, a social media insights tool.
The claim is misleading. While one poll did put Bidens approval rating at 39%, the polling average a more accurate measure of a president’s popularity put it higher. Experts say Biden’s approval rating, the lowest since he took office, is still higher than Trumps term low.
USA TODAY reached out to several social media users who shared the claim for comment.
Trump Is A Barometer For Republican Views Of Supreme Court
A person holds a sign during a rally to protest the results of the election, in front of the U.S. Supreme Court, in Washington, U.S., December 12, 2020. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst
The U.S. Supreme Court has been issuing rulings that tend to favor conservatives, but its approval ratings have dropped among Republicans as well as Democrats, according to an analysis by my Reuters colleagues and a recent Gallup poll, both released on July 28.
A year ago, 58% of Americans approved of the court, its highest rating in about 11 years, according to the poll. This year, the courts approval rating dipped to 49%, and a historical gap between Republicans and Democrats narrowed to nothing: Members of both parties have identical approval ratings of 51% .
The courts reputation has taken a hit among Republicans, despite it taking a sharp turn toward the right, both in terms of its membership and decisions.
Former President Donald Trump appointed three new justices since 2017, moving the court further to the right than it had been for decades. Republican approval of the court expectedly surged in Gallups polls after those appointments.
And, a recent Reuters analysis of the courts shadow docket rulings from the past 12 months found that the courts 6-3 conservative majority repeatedly favored religious groups and Trumps administration, while denying almost 100 other emergency applications by private individuals and groups.
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The Sample And Margin Of Error
Pollsters cant realistically contact every American adult throughout the country and ask their opinion on a given issue. Instead, they try to contact a representative sampleusually anywhere between 1,000 and 2,000 individualsthat accurately represents the countrys population as a whole. Pollsters, with the help of statisticians, demographers, and data experts, use a variety of techniques to create a representative sample. This typically involves using probability formulas and algorithms to ensure random sampling and to increase the likelihood of contacting an accurate cross-section of the U.S. adult population. Some pollsters also create panels of respondents that they believe reflect the actual population and poll them repeatedly over a span of time. These polls are usually called tracking polls. Oftentimes, pollsters weigh their respondents to account for various demographic measurements. For example, a pollster might weigh more heavily the responses from a specific demographic group if that group was poorly represented in the random sample in relation to the countrys estimated demographic composition. The same might be done if a group appears to be overrepresented.
Joe Bidens Approval Rating Hits New Low But Matches Donald Trumps: Poll
President Joe Bidens approval rating has reached a new low of just 40 percent in a Reuters/Ipsos poll published on Tuesday and now matches former President Donald Trumps approval at the same stage in his presidency.
The poll found that 54 percent of Americans disapprove of the job Biden is doing in what may be a concerning figure ahead of crucial midterm elections in November in which Republicans will aim to take back the House of Representatives and the Senate.
Trump had an approval rating of 40 percent in mid-March 2018, though it dipped below 40 percent several times over the course of his administration.
Bidens approval rating in the poll is down three percent on last week amid the ongoing war in Ukraine and Americans worries about inflation. The survey found that the economy was Americans top issue, followed by war and foreign conflicts.
A Monmouth University poll published last week also showed that Biden and Trump had identical approval ratings at this point in their presidencies.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted from March 21 to March 22 among 1,005 adults and had a credibility interval of 4 percent. Poll tracker FiveThirtyEight gives Reuters/Ipsos a B- rating.
Among independents, 26 percent viewed Trump favorably and 68 percent had an unfavorable view.
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What Would Make You Change Your Mind About Donald J Trump
When Michael Tesler, a political scientist at the University of California Irvine, tries to explain the amazing stability of Trumps approval in his classes, he starts with a question. He asks his students if theres anything Trump could do to make them support him. And hes invariably met by a sea of shaking heads. If you went into Trumps presidency thinking hes a racist, sexist, xenophobic, immoral, narcissistic, corrupt, and incompetent person beliefs held by most Clinton voters then theres literally almost nothing he could do to change your mind, says Tesler.
The same is true in reverse. If you see Trump as the protector of Western Civilization, as Charlie Kirk called him the other night at the RNC, or the protector of white America, as Desmond King and Rogers Smith have called him, defending cherished American values from atheist, left-wing socialists who want to take your guns and put Cory Booker in charge of diversifying your neighborhoods, then theres almost nothing that would make you abandon him, Tesler continues.
But how do we know if were being governed with a bare level of competence?
How Trumps Second Impeachment Will Work
To be sure, the national polls underestimated Trumps performance in the national election, which he lost by 4 percentage points after trailing in the RealClearPolitics average by 7 points and the FiveThirtyEight average by 8 points.
But the latest polls conducted over the past week all show significant drops in support for Trump from the previous measurements with one notable exception: Rasmussen Reports. The Republican-leaning automated pollster, which has typically produced stronger results for Trump, has shown that the presidents approval ratings have been virtually unaffected by last weeks events.
Trumps final approval rating is far from settled, given the congressional sprint to impeach him in the closing week of his presidency. But he is poised to go down as one of the most unpopular presidents upon leaving office.
Barack Obamas approval rating rose in the final weeks of his presidency, following Trumps upset victory in the 2016 election. According to theRealClearPolitics average, Obamas approval rating finished at 57 percent, rising about 5 points between the election and Trumps inauguration in January 2017.
Trump is likely to finish closer to Bushs final ratings: 34 percent in the finalGallup poll the best historical record for modern presidential approval and 29 percent in the closingRealClearPolitics average.
More details on the poll and its methodology can be found in these two documents:Toplines |Crosstabs
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