Trump Does Especially Well With Vaccine
The poll results show Trump does especially well among people who have not been vaccinated and do not intend to be vaccinated, Selzer said.
He is viewed favorably by 86% of Iowans who say they are not vaccinated and do not plan to become vaccinated.
Thats on par with Reynolds, who also is viewed favorably by 86% of vaccine-resistant Iowans. But far fewer vaccine-resistant Iowans view the states two Republican senators favorably. Sixty percent of those who are not vaccinated and do not plan to become vaccinated view Grassley favorably, and 67% view U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst favorably.
Trump has been vaccinated, but he did so in private and he said in a September interview with the Wall Street Journal that he is unlikely to get the booster shot authorized by the Food and Drug Administration for those 65 and older and for people with weakened immune systems.
He has publicly touted the aggressive timeline during which the vaccines were developed while he was in office. But at an August rally in Alabama, he was briefly booed for urging his supporters to get the shot.
You got to do what you have to do, but I recommend: Take the vaccines, he said at the rally. I did it its good.
Reynolds, Grassley and Ernst all have been vaccinated against COVID-19 and have publicly recommended that others do the same. But they and Trump have all drawn a firm line when it comes to any kind of vaccine mandate.
Republican Voters On Their Preferred Candidate For President
If the Republican 2024 presidential primary were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:
Asked of 350 respondents who said they planned to vote in the 2024 Republican primary in a New York Times/Siena College poll from July 5-7, 2022. Respondents who answered someone else or did not offer a response are not shown.
The greatest threat to usurp Mr. Trump within the party is Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, who was the second choice with 25 percent and the only other contender with double-digit support. Among primary voters, Mr. DeSantis was the top choice of younger Republicans, those with a college degree and those who said they voted for President Biden in 2020.
While about one-fourth of Republicans said they didnt know enough to have an opinion about Mr. DeSantis, he was well-liked by those who did. Among those who voted for Mr. Trump in 2020, 44 percent said they had a very favorable opinion of Mr. DeSantis similar to the 46 percent who said the same about Mr. Trump.
Should Mr. DeSantis and Mr. Trump face off in a primary, the poll suggested that support from Fox News could prove crucial: Mr. Trump held a 62 percent to 26 percent advantage over Mr. DeSantis among Fox News viewers, while the gap between the two Floridians was 16 points closer among Republicans who mainly receive their news from another source.
Mr. Trumps troubles inside his party leave him hamstrung in a matchup against an unusually vulnerable incumbent.
Trumps Support In Iowa For Another Run Surpasses Bidens
According to news reports, Trumps decision is more a matter of when to launch a 2024 campaign, not if he should.
Some Republican operatives believe he should wait to make an announcement until after the November midterm elections to avoid taking the focus off Biden, whose approval ratings have plummeted amid rising inflation and soaring gas prices. But aides and allies have said an announcement could come as early as this summer.
Unlike Biden, Trump has fared well in Iowa in the past, placing second in the 2016 presidential caucuses and carrying the state in both the 2016 and 2020 general elections. Today, he garners more support in Iowa for another presidential bid than Biden, his 2020 rival, the poll shows.
Just 23% of Iowans say they hope Biden, 79, runs for president again, while 67% say they hope he does not. Nine percent are not sure.
Unlike Trump, Biden fails to garner a majority of support from within his own party for another campaign. Among Democrats, just 37% say he should run again, while 52% say they hope he does not.
Bidens approval rating in Iowa has hit a new low at 27%. At the same time, the share of Iowans who believe the country is on the wrong track has surpassed even what it was during the 2008 Great Recession. Today, 84% of Iowans believe things in the nation are on the wrong track. Just 10% say they believe things are headed in the right direction.
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Would Trumps Support Change If He Were Charged With A Crime
The former president faces a handful of investigations, including from the Department of Justice and the U.S. House select committee on the origins of the Jan. 6 attack, a grand jury looking into potential election interference in Georgia and, most recently, an FBI probe into classified materials removed from the White House and kept at Trumps Florida estate. Some had been recovered or returned earlier this year. But when the FBI executed a search warrant at Mar-a-Lago last month, agents still found more than 100 classified documents and 43 empty folders with classified markings, among thousands of other official records, according to a Department of Justice list of items.
Support for Trumps candidacy in 2024 would not change much if any of these investigations result in Trump being charged with a crime, according to this poll. Sixty-five percent of Americans would oppose another run for the White House. More than six in 10 Republicans would still want to see him launch a campaign. Meanwhile, 73 percent of independents say he should not run again if he is charged.
This poll is just a snapshot of the current political environment. With two months until the midterm elections and another two years until the 2024 presidential election, a lot can still change with the Republican primary field and the investigations.
Graphic by Megan McGrew
Data Download: The Numbers You Need To Know Today
58 percent: The share of Americans who say their bigger concern is making sure that everyone who wants to vote can do so, per new NBC News poll.
38 percent: The share who say their bigger concern is making sure that no one votes who is not eligible to vote.
1.6 million: The number of valid signatures collected by backers of the recall election against California Gov. Gavin Newsom, per the secretary of states office.
$400 million: How much the recall election could cost, according to the California Association of Clerks and Election Officials.
$15 an hour: The new minimum wage for federal contractors, starting in January, under an executive order that President Biden is set to sign.
89: The number of people New York fell short by in its count to retain one of its House seats.
32,276,517: The number of confirmed cases of coronavirus in the United States, per the most recent data from NBC News and health officials.
576,763: The number of deaths in the United States from the virus so far, per the most recent data from NBC News. (Thats 474 more than yesterday morning.
230,768,454: The number of vaccine doses administered in the U.S.
26.5 percent: The share of Americans who are fully vaccinated
2: The number of days left for Biden to reach his 100-day vaccination goal.
Sahil Kapur notes that Bidens first 100 days have been shaped in some ways by the first 100 days of his Democratic predecessor.
How high should the capital gains tax be? Heres what some experts have to say.
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Most Americans Dont Want Trump Or Biden To Run In 202: Poll
Most Americans dont want either President Biden or his predecessor, former President Donald Trump, to run for the White House again in 2024, according to a new Harvard CAPS/Harris poll shared exclusively with The Hill.
Two-thirds of voters surveyed 67 percent said that Biden shouldnt seek another term in the Oval Office, with nearly half citing their belief that hes a bad president as the reason why. Another 30 percent said its simply because Biden, who would be 84 by the time he takes the Oath of Office again, is too old for the job.
Trump, meanwhile, doesnt fare much better when it comes to a 2024 run. Fifty-seven percent said that the former president shouldnt mount another bid for the White House, despite his repeated hints that he plans to do so.
When it comes to the reason why most voters arent keen on another Trump White House run, respondents were divided. Thirty-six percent said that its because he is erratic, while another 33 percent said they believe he will divide the country. Nearly as many 31 percent pointed to his role in the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol.
If the two men end up in a 2024 rematch, however, 60 percent of voters said they would be open to supporting a moderate independent candidate in the election.
Trump Approval Remains Stable In New Nbc Poll With Republicans Unmoved After Capitol Violence
WASHINGTON Donald Trump is the only president in history to be impeached twice this time for his role in encouraging a deadly assault on the Capitol by his supporters but he is poised to leave office with a job approval rating that is fairly typical of his entire time in office.
A new NBC News poll found that 43 percent of voters nationwide gave Trump a positive job approval rating, just barely down from 45 percent who said the same before the November election and the 44 percent who approved of his performance shortly after he took office in 2017.
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Some Very Good Polling News For Donald Trump
Among all-important Iowa voters, former President Donald Trump notched his highest favorability rating ever, according to the latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll.
- 53% of Iowans now have a favorable view of Trump.
- 45% now have an unfavorable view of Trump.
- 2% are not sure how they feel.
To be clear,The Point: A new poll shows Iowans are bigger fans of Trump than ever. And that could fuel his ongoing flirtation with running for president again in 2024.
Majority Of Americans Support $15 Minimum Wage Reuters/ipsos Poll Shows
A majority of Americans support the idea of more than doubling the minimum wage to $15 per hour, a Reuters/Ipsos poll showed on Thursday as Senate Democrats await a ruling on whether they can tuck that measure into a $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief bill.
A slim majority of Americans say former President Donald Trump should be convicted by the Senate of inciting an insurrection and barred from holding public office, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, which showed a sharp partisan divide over the issue.
Fifty-seven percent of Americans want Republican President Donald Trump to be immediately removed from office after he encouraged a protest this week that escalated into a deadly riot inside the U.S. Capitol, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.
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The Sample And Margin Of Error
Pollsters cant realistically contact every American adult throughout the country and ask their opinion on a given issue. Instead, they try to contact a representative sampleusually anywhere between 1,000 and 2,000 individualsthat accurately represents the countrys population as a whole. Pollsters, with the help of statisticians, demographers, and data experts, use a variety of techniques to create a representative sample. This typically involves using probability formulas and algorithms to ensure random sampling and to increase the likelihood of contacting an accurate cross-section of the U.S. adult population. Some pollsters also create panels of respondents that they believe reflect the actual population and poll them repeatedly over a span of time. These polls are usually called tracking polls. Oftentimes, pollsters weigh their respondents to account for various demographic measurements. For example, a pollster might weigh more heavily the responses from a specific demographic group if that group was poorly represented in the random sample in relation to the countrys estimated demographic composition. The same might be done if a group appears to be overrepresented.
An Examination Of The 2016 Electorate Based On Validated Voters
One of the biggest challenges facing those who seek to understand U.S. elections is establishing an accurate portrait of the American electorate and the choices made by different kinds of voters. Obtaining accurate data on how people voted is difficult for a number of reasons.
Surveys conducted before an election can overstate or understate the likelihood of some voters to vote. Depending on when a survey is conducted, voters might change their preferences before Election Day. Surveys conducted after an election can be affected by errors stemming from respondents recall, either for whom they voted for or whether they voted at all. Even the special surveys conducted by major news organizations on Election Day the exit polls face challenges from refusals to participate and from the fact that a sizable minority of voters actually vote prior to Election Day and must be interviewed using conventional surveys beforehand.
This report introduces a new approach for looking at the electorate in the 2016 general election: matching members of Pew Research Centers nationally representative American Trends Panel to voter files to create a dataset of verified voters.
About half of validated voters were married among them, Trump had a 55% to 39% majority. Among unmarried voters, Clinton led by a similar margin .
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A Poll That Should Scare Donald Trump
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis takes 39% in a poll of the Republican presidential primary in New Hampshire, while Trump is at 37%. No other potential GOP contender manages double-digit support, with former Vice President Mike Pence in third place at 9%.
Thatâs a MAJOR change from where the race was last fall. A UNH poll in October 2021 showed Trump with 43% to DeSantisâ 18%.
Another interesting nugget from the poll: Just 6 in 10 self-identified Republicans want the former President to run again in 2024. Which is, well, sort of low?
Now, this is just one poll in a state expected to be one of the first to vote in the 2024 primary season. If you look at all the polling done in the broader Republican White House race, Trump still leads in the preponderance of it. And he would start a third bid for president as the favorite for the GOP nomination.
But itâs become increasingly clear that the primary race is no longer properly understood as Trump and everyone else, but rather Trump, DeSantis and everyone else.
And DeSantis has been, for a while now, acting less dependent on Trump.
As Politico reported Wednesday: âAccording to four people connected to the governor and former president, DeSantis has not asked Trump for a formal endorsement and isnât planning to.â
Biden Harris Best Trump On Favorability Scale
While the poll finds Trumps personal favorability ratings underwater, the Democrats heading to the White House fare better.
Biden has a net favorability rating of +4 , while Vice President-elect Kamala Harris has a net rating of +0 .
Thats compared with Trumps net personal rating of -13 .
Bidens wife, Jill Biden, has a personal favorability rating of +14 . Notably, however, a majority of Republicans 59 percent give her a negative rating, a particularly high marker of antipathy for an incoming first lady from members of the opposing party.
Before Obamas inauguration, 33 percent of Republicans gave Michelle Obama a negative personal rating. And before Trumps inauguration, 44 percent of Democrats gave Melania Trump a similarly poor grade.
The NBC News poll of 1,000 registered voters was conducted Jan. 10-13, 2021, by the Republican firm Public Opinion Strategies and the Democratic firm Hart Research. The margin of error for registered voters is +/- 3.1 percentage points.
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Poll: Biden Now Leads Trump By Widest Margin In 6 Months
As President Bidens approval rating continues to bounce back from its summertime lows, a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll now shows him leading former President Donald Trump in a 2024 rematch by the widest margin since March.
The survey of 1,634 U.S. adults was conducted from Sept. 2 to Sept. 6 immediately after a combative primetime speech last Thursday, in which Biden blasted Trump and the MAGA Republicans as extremists who threat the very foundations of our republic.
The poll found that if the next presidential election were held today, 48% of registered voters would choose Biden, while 42% would choose Trump. Bidens new 6-point lead is 3 points larger than his edge in the previous Yahoo News/YouGov survey from late August and 4 points better than his average lead across all Yahoo News/YouGov surveys conducted between April and July . The polls margin of error is approximately 2.6%.
The last time Biden led Trump in a Yahoo News/YouGov poll by 6 percentage points or more among registered voters was in March 2022 . The time before that was in May 2021 . Notably, Bidens support today matches those previous highs.
None of which means Biden is a lock to defeat Trump in 2024. The election is still years away, and Trump won in 2016 despite losing the national popular vote . Meanwhile, more Americans still disapprove than approve of Bidens performance in office.