Wednesday, April 17, 2024

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Who Would Win Trump Or Biden

Mike Duggan Wins A Third Term As Detroits Mayor

Whos Likelier to Win, Trump or Biden?

Mayor Mike Duggan of Detroit was elected to a third term on Tuesday, The Associated Press projected, as voters signaled confidence in the direction of a city that has suffered from decades of disinvestment and population loss.

Mr. Duggan, a Democrat who was elected eight years ago as the city was in the throes of municipal bankruptcy, has presided over a resurgence of Detroits commercial center and a restoration of basic city services like streetlights. New factories are opening, the Detroit Pistons basketball team moved back from the suburbs, and young college graduates have moved into downtown and Midtown, along with businesses catering to them.

Eight years ago, the problems Detroit was facing were just Detroit no other city was talking about bankruptcy or streetlights, Mr. Duggan said earlier this year. Today, the challenges that were dealing with, every other city has.

But by Mr. Duggans own assessment, Detroit remains a work in progress. Violent crime is a persistent concern. Blighted and abandoned homes are a common sight, despite efforts to bulldoze or restore many buildings over the last decades. And some longtime residents, especially Black residents who stayed in Detroit through years of white flight to the suburbs, say they are concerned about gentrification as the white population grows and rents go up.

Dana Rubinstein

The States Trump Must Defend

Beyond the core big six swing states and the two weird congressional districts, each candidate is trying to go on offense in a set of states where they suspect their opponent is favored but hope for an upset.

For Biden, the states hes trying to pluck out of Trumps hands are the traditional swing states of Ohio and Iowa, and the recently Republican-leaning states of Georgia and Texas.

We can think of this group as two pairs of states: two Biden is trying to win back, and two that are relatively new territory for Democrats to be contesting.

  • Ohio and Iowa went for Obama twice, and trended heavily toward Republicans in 2016 . Biden hopes to win back, and poll averages suggest he has a decent shot of it hes currently abouttied in Ohio and alsoin in Iowa.
  • Texas and Georgia havent voted for Democratic presidential candidates in decades but Democrats margins of defeat there have recently shrunk . Currently, polling averages show Biden narrowlyahead in Georgia and narrowlytrailing in Texas.

Its generally believed that these states are unlikely to be decisive, since if Biden wins one of these states, hes probably won enough states from the big six as well.

But weird things can happen. Here, for instance, is an map where Trump holds strong in the Upper Midwest and Rust Belt , and wins Florida and North Carolina but Biden wins the election, because surprisingly high turnout among Mexican American voters delivers him narrow victories in Arizona and Texas.

What You Need To Know About Biden

Joe Biden, or Sleepy Joe as the POTUS refers to him, may have some factors working against him like age and height, but he has one edge over Donald Trump when it comes to a fist fight and thats his football background.

Yes, its been more than 50 years since the former vice-president donned the shoulder pads and leather helmet but that shows he isnt averse to physical contact. The man played halfback and linebacker, both positions that involve a lot of physical punishment. That means he could likely take Trumps best shot before having to summon the energy a 77-year-old would need to knock out another senior citizen.

Even earlier this year, Biden looked like he was ready to scrap with an auto parts worker in Michigan when the topic of gun control came up:

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Biden Leading National Presidential Polls

National polls are a good guide as to how popular a candidate is across the country as a whole, but they’re not necessarily a good way to predict the result of the election.

In 2016, for example, Hillary Clinton led in the polls and won nearly three million more votes than Donald Trump, but she still lost – that’s because the US uses an electoral college system, so winning the most votes doesn’t always win you the election.

With that caveat aside, Joe Biden has been ahead of Donald Trump in most national polls since the start of the year. He has hovered around 50% in recent months and has had a 10-point lead on occasions.

Turnout High In Virginia’s Shenandoah Valley

At the Debate, Biden and Trump Showed America Who They ...

At one precinct in Augusta County, Virginia, chief election officer Lesley Piner said she had to ask the county for more ballots before lunchtime, having run out by 11 a.m.

Piner said the county only gave the precinct about 300 ballots for the day. They had surpassed that before noon.

“We’ve been very steady … more than I expected,” she said.

About 50 people in the precinct opted to vote early and more than 300 out of a total of 1,000 registered voters had voted in the morning a number that shocked Piner.

“Normally, I would have thought we’d have 350 people for the entire day,” she said. “We’re going to surpass that, and it’s not even noon.”

Virginia’s polls close at 7 p.m.

Laura Peters, Staunton News-Leader

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Michelle Wu Wins Boston Mayoral Race

Michelle Wu, 36, won a hotly contested mayoral race in Boston after fellow council member and Democrat Annissa Essaibi George conceded Tuesday. Wu gained 56% of votes compared to 43% for George.

Wu is a Harvard Law graduate who served on the council since 2014. She is the first woman and first woman of color elected mayor of the commonwealth capital, breaking a streak of white male city leaders.

Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Edward Markey, along with Rep. Ayanna Pressley, all from Massachusetts, campaigned with Wu, along with acting Boston Mayor Kim Janey. Janey, a Black woman, was appointed after previously elected mayor Marty Walsh stepped down to become secretary of Labor under President Joe Biden.

Chelsey Cox

Donald Trump Beats Joe Biden In 2024 Election Poll

A new poll has placed former President Donald Trump as the favorite to win the 2024 U.S. election, slightly edging Democratic incumbent Joe Biden.

A national Emerson College Poll found that if the two men were to go head-to-head in 2024, Trump would be slightly favored with 47 percent against Biden’s 46 percent.

Biden has split job approval among registered voters, the poll found. It said that around 47 percent disapprove and 46 percent approve of the work he is doing as president. The other 7 percent were undecided.

Of the Democrats polled, 60 percent said they would see Biden as the 2024 presidential nominee, while 39 percent said they would rather it be someone else.

Of the Republican voters polled, 67 percent said they would vote for Trump in a hypothetical GOP primary with seven other candidates, including Florida Governor Ron DeSantis , former Vice President Mike Pence, Texas Senator Ted Cruz and former South Carolina Governor and ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley.

When placed head-to-head in a hypothetical 2024 presidential race, Biden is favorite to win against all of the other Republican challengers, including DeSantis.

With regards to the 2022 midterms, the poll found that 71 percent of Democrats and 69 of Republicans said they were very likely to vote in the contest.

There have also be other hints Trump will run from other GOP allies.

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The Gop Margins Make It Even More Worrisome For Democrats In 2022

The headline, of course, is that Mr. Youngkin won. But for political strategists focused on the midterms in 2022, his final margin and specifics about where his campaign excelled and Mr. McAuliffe underperformed is every bit as revealing about the trajectory of the two parties.

Think of it this way: Because Mr. Biden carried Virginia by 10 percentage points in 2020, a Youngkin victory represents a Republican improvement of more than 10 percentage points in exactly one year.

That is a lot even knowing Virginias history of delivering its governorship to the party out of power in the White House.

Just as worrisome for the Democrats is that of the 36 governorships up for grabs in 2022, eight are now held by Democrats in states that had a smaller Democratic margin of victory in 2020 than Virginia, according to an election memo for donors from the Republican Governors Association. That list includes three of the most crucial presidential battlegrounds: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

The picture in the House is just as bleak for Democrats.

Patrick Ruffini, a Republican pollster, noted that if a roughly 10-point swing about the gain Mr. Youngkin needed to win in Virginia were applied to the 2020 House results in districts nationwide, Republicans would have picked up 38 House seats.

Strategists in both parties said that unless the political environment improved for Democrats, they were at risk of losing both the House and Senate in 2022.

The Two Swing Congressional Districts: Me

Who will win the 2020 election? President Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Another quirk in the Electoral College system is that just two small states Maine and Nebraska have made the unusual decision to allot some of their electoral votes to the winners in each congressional district in the state, rather than giving them all to the statewide winner as the other 48 states do.

Practically, one of Maines two districts is safe for Democrats, and two of Nebraskas three districts are safe for Republicans. But the remaining district in each state Maines Second District and Nebraskas Second District is up for grabs.

With just one electoral vote at stake for each, theyll only actually matter in the closest of races. But if such a close contest transpires, theyll be absolutely crucial. For instance, the 269-269 tie map above would flip to Biden if he was able to win Nebraskas Second District.

Maines Second is rural, and white voters lacking college degrees make up a large share of the electorate. Its result in presidential years had always been the same as Maines statewide result until 2016, when Trump won it by the sizable margin of 10 points . Recent polls have showed Biden with a narrow lead there this year.

Heres another scenario where these two congressional districts could decide the president if Biden wins Michigan and Pennsylvania, but Trump wins Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, and Wisconsin, with the two key congressional districts undecided.

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Study: Voters With Disabilities Show ‘large Gains’ In Turnout

Voters with disabilities are enjoying a new era of political relevance this Election Day thanks to the COVID pandemic both the reforms it spurred and the inequities it laid bare.

People with disabilities showed large gains in 2020s voter turnout, said Steve Flamisch of Rutgers Universitys Program for Disability Research, referring to a report by the university and the U.S. Election Assistance Commission.

Turnout rose to 17.7 million, up from 16 million in 2016, thanks to mail-in ballots and other initiatives, according to the group, which looked at national data.

Gene Myers,

How Trump Or Biden Could Win Mapped

This story was featured in Drop Me The Link, our one-story election newsletter.

Its the Friday after Election Day, and Joe Bidens path to victory is looking prohibitive for President Trump.

So where do things go from here? This post is our updating look at the paths to victory that remain for Trump and Biden. We will adjust these maps based on projected and likely results to show you the most likely remaining avenues.

So bookmark this page and refresh often.

The big news Friday morning was the Biden edged ahead in two key, outstanding states: Georgia and Pennsylvania. This means he now leads in 4 of the 5 key states that remain uncalled, along with Arizona and Nevada. Trump retains a lead only in North Carolina.

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Running Against Trump Is Tried And True But Is Biden ‘mentally Sharp’ Enough For The Job

Joe Biden may think hes doing a great job and that if, by chance, anything has gone wrong during his presidency, its somebody elses fault. But the American people arent buying it.

A new poll by Gallup has the president at his lowest approval rating since he took office. Only 43 percent of the American people approve of the job hes doing and, for the first time, a majority 53 percent disapprove.

And while Democrats overwhelmingly support the president 90 percent even thats not as good as it sounds. At the height of his popularity, almost everybody who identified as a Democrat 98 percent said they approved of the way Biden was handling his job.

But in these hyper-partisan times, independents are the ones who really matter. And theres bad news on that front for the president. Only 37 percent of independents approve of the presidents performance in office his lowest number so far, 24 points below his personal high of 61 percent.

Polls, of course, arent etched in stone. They can change tomorrow. But if the numbers dont change, Democrats are going to have a tough time running on the presidents record in next years midterm elections.

So what to do? Democrats already have an answer to that: Run against Donald TrumpDonald TrumpHouse votes to raise debt ceilingGeorgia reporter says state will ‘continue to be a premier battleground’Elections administrator in Texas county Trump won resigns after campaign to oust herMORE.

Ohio Special Election Tests Presidential Endorsements

Republicans tell the truth about Biden probe: âIt would ...

Ohios 15th congressional district could be another litmus test for the endorsement of the two major political party leaders.

President Joe Biden jumped into the districts special election with an eleventh-hour endorsement of Democratic state Rep. Allison Russo on Monday. Former President Donald Trump already had backed Republican Mike Carey, a coal lobbyist.

The two candidates are running in a district that favors the GOP to replace former Rep. Steve Stivers, a Republican who resigned to take a job in the private sector.

Carey also has gotten a boost from national Republican groups and a campaign visit from former Vice President Mike Pence, according to The Columbus Dispatch.

Rick Rouan

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Republicans Score Key Wins In District Attorney Races On Long Island

Republicans won two highly competitive district attorney races on Long Island that were seen as key tests of Democratic strength in the suburbs and support for left-leaning criminal justice measures.

In Nassau County, State Senator Todd Kaminsky, a moderate Democrat, conceded on Wednesday to Anne Donnelly, a first-time Republican candidate, in a bitterly contested special election that Mr. Kaminsky had entered as the favorite.

Just east in Suffolk County, Timothy Sini, the Democratic incumbent, conceded to Raymond Tierney, the Republican challenger, late Tuesday night.

Both races, outside New York City, were seen as bellwethers of the Democratic Partys standing in the suburbs, and they may have national resonance for Republicans as they seek to regain control of Congress in next years midterm elections.

In Nassau, Democrats entered the race with high hopes of keeping the seat blue it has been held by a Democrat since 2006 but party insiders grew increasingly nervous as Election Day approached and Republicans waged what appeared to be an effective campaign attacking Mr. Kaminsky for supporting the states contentious bail law in 2019.

There are more registered Democrats than Republicans in Nassau County, though more Republicans tend to vote in off-year elections, a trend that was apparently amplified on Tuesday.

Mail-in votes still must be counted and Ms. Curran had not conceded as of Wednesday morning. The Associated Press has not called the race.

Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn

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