Dwayne Johnson Oprah Winfrey
David Axelrod, Mr. Obamas political guru, likes to say that voters usually seek the remedy, not the replica of the incumbent. When you consider how much political logic has been turned on its head, perhaps Democrats will nominate a Trumpian figure of their own. Enter the Rock, who inspired the formation of a political action committee to support his presidential aspirations after he announced his intention to run for the White House .
Or what about Oprah Winfrey? Shes dipped her toe into politics before, backing Mr. Obama during the 2008 Democratic primaries. And after the conservative columnist John Podhoretz recently her the Democrats best hope in 2020 , Ms. Winfrey seemed open to the idea. She tweeted the article with the message to Mr. Podhoretz: Thanks for your vote of confidence!
What These Shifts Mean For Future Elections
The exit polls and results from this years presidential election paint a somewhat different picture than the previous two races. After Obamas second victory in 2012, Democrats were touting a voter constituency made up of young people, diverse voters, and college-educated whites that they felt would provide them solid support for several elections to come. It even prompted Republicans to issue an autopsy urging the inclusion of a wider voter base. Yet after Trumps 2016 victory with strong support from older, less urban, and noncollege whites, many Republicans stayed onboard their earlier train.
In retrospect, it seems that both the 2012 Obama coalition and the 2016 Trump coalition overperformed in those elections. The 2020 results suggest neither party can rely solely on those particular sets of voters. As I have , there is no doubt that changing demographicsespecially rising diversityshould benefit Democrats in the long run .
But in the interim, the results of the 2020 election make plain that both parties need to address the interests of a coalition made up of all of these groups. The Trump presidency did not do thisperhaps a Biden presidency can.
The Reason Sanders Appears Equally Electable
These Bernie or bust voters that come off the sidelines for Sanders in our survey are almost entirely limited to one group: Democrats and independents under age 35. These voters are about 11 percentage points more likely to say they would vote for Democrats if Sanders is nominated and almost all of them say they would not vote at all or vote third party if hes not on the ballot.
However, the Bernie or bust phenomenon appears almost entirely limited to left-leaning young people, who are usually a small share of the overall electorate. This stands in contrast to many theories of Sanderss electoral appeal: For example, whites without a college degree a demographic some speculate Sanders could win over are actually more likely to say they will vote for Trump against Sanders than against the other Democrats. The same is true of the rest of the electorate, except left-leaning young people.
This finding in our data mirrors many other surveys: Morning Consult finds dramatic increases in young Americans stated turnout intentions when asked how they would vote in matchups between Sanders and Trump.
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How Democrats Identify Themselves
The survey results also revealed that more than two-thirds of Democrats identify themselves as liberal/progressive or moderate/conservative. Forty percent described themselves as liberal/progressive and 27% identified as moderate/conservative. Only 1 in 10 Democrats identified as Democratic Socialists of these Democrats, one-third are African American, more than half are younger voters and two-thirds are women.
Poll methodology: The sample of 5,108 eligible U.S. voters participated from May 15 to June 15, 2019. They are members of USC Dornsifes Center for Economic and Social Researchs Understanding America Study probability-based internet panel. The poll was conducted online in respondents choice of English or Spanish. The overall margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points for all U.S. eligible voters and +/- 3 for 2020 Democratic primary voters.
Information about the poll including methodology, question wording and results, as well as the archive of results of prior USC Dornsife/LA Times polls, are available online.
About the poll: The USC Dornsife/L.A. Times poll is a partnership of the Los Angeles Times and two institutions of the USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences: the Center for the Political Future and the Center for Economic and Social Research. For more information about the Center for Economic and Social Research Understanding America Study internet panel, visit the studys website.
Who Has The Best Chance To Beat Trump In 2020
Of the 23 Democrats seeking the partys nomination, only one will face incumbent Republican President Donald Trump on Tuesday, November 3 during the 2020 US presidential election.
So, this begs the question: Who has the best chance of beating Trump in 2020?
To answer this, well examine how the betting odds for each of the Democratic candidates have changed since 2019 began and whether their chances have gone up or down over that time.
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Why Bernie Sanders Is Not Fit To Defeat Trump
- The best historic precedent for a Bernie Sanders candidate is George McGovern and, far more recently, James Corbyn .
- Bernie is already famous for being the first popular Socialist candidate in modern times, and polls show that Americans have no appetite for a socialist message, even if they like many policies that come from the socialist playbook.
- In the four years since he last ran for President, Bernie has not demonstrated that he’s been able to connect with the black community in a meaningful way. And the black community has been a linchpin to electoral victory in recent successful Democratic campaigns.
John Hickenlooper Steve Bullock
Some Democrats will be tempted to look beyond the Beltway for a savior. Thus the appeal of a certain type of pragmatic governor.
John Hickenlooper, in his second term as Colorado governor, has built a solid economic record there while also instituting tough gun control laws and overseeing the smooth introduction of legalized marijuana. Hes also evinced a willingness for bipartisanship that has served him well in purple Colorado. Hes an offbeat enough character that its possible to see him catching fire.
Steve Bullock is a second-term governor in deep-red Montana, and hed cast himself as someone whod help Democrats broaden their electoral map beyond the coasts. Its not a bad sales pitch. But Mr. Bullock isnt much of a salesman. One joke making the rounds about him goes that if you close your eyes while hes speaking, you hear Evan Bayh.
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Who Won The Presidential Debates
Donald Trump and Joe Biden went head-to-head in two live TV debates.
The first, on 29 September, was a chaotic affair, with Mr Trump’s combative approach stamping out any chance of a real debate.
A CBS News/YouGov poll taken straight afterwards suggested it was a good night for Mr Biden.
Of those who watched, 48% said Mr Biden was the winner while 41% went for Mr Trump – a similar split to national polling averages. Nearly 70% of people said the debate made them feel “annoyed”.
In the second debate, on 22 October, organisers introduced a mute button to help police the arguments.
But it was a much more restrained President Trump on show and there was a much greater focus on the policies of the two candidates.
While that seemed to help Mr Trump somewhat, snap polls still suggested viewers thought Mr Biden’s performance was more impressive.
A CNN poll found 53% of viewers thought the Democrat had done a better job in the debate, while 39% went with Mr Trump.
A YouGov snap poll was similar, with 54% saying Mr Biden had won compared to 35% for the president.
So while Mr Trump put in a better performance, it’s unlikely to have been enough to change the balance of the race on its own.
Other Side May Mobilize Too
Another fundamental challenge looms over a strategy built on winning through mobilization: Any candidate, like Sanders, with a persona strong enough to excite positive turnout on his side risks igniting negative turnout on the other. Many Democrats believe that the unrelenting partisan conflict of the Trump presidency ensures that their supporters will turn out in large numbers against him in November. If the party picks a polarizing nominee of its own, they fear, it will make it easier for Trump to generate massive turnout from the Republican base against the Democrat. Even if Democrats want to pursue a strategy revolving around mobilization, Teixeira argues, You can argue its possible that Sanders is the worst possible candidate to do it. Hes so polarizing. Hes likely to jack up turnout on the other side at least as much.
If Sanders cant win a general election by changing the electorate, as these Democratic experts believe, that means he, like any other potential nominee, would need to win primarily by converting swing voters. Though Sanders always stresses mobilization, especially of young people, some of his supporters and advisers believe that he would be more likely to beat Trump by attracting working-class voters across racial lines, including whites, African Americans and Hispanics.
Tulchin counters that voters will overlook disagreements with any individual aspect of Sanders agenda if they believe he is fighting for their economic interests.
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Regrets: Trump Would Beat Biden Today More Women And Blacks Support
A slew of new polls have come out this week showing the shrinking support for and approval of President Joe Biden, his average now below 50%.
But today, Rasmussen Reports is issuing the capper, telling Secrets that in an election do-over, Biden would lose to former President Donald Trump.
The details of the survey, which samples more Democrats than Republicans, showed that Trump would win more women and blacks than he did in 2020 when he lost to Biden, 46.8%-51.3%.
A sizable 14% would choose some other candidate, though none were named.
The survey comes at a key point in Bidens presidency. He is now under fire for bungling Americas withdrawal from Afghanistan, increasing inflation, and spiraling crime.
Several other surveys out this week have shown his approval rating underwater, a place Trump floated for much of his presidency.
Today, Axios headlined, Biden’s average approval rating drops below 50% for first time. It cited poll trackers from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics.
The site added, This marks a precipitous decline from the FiveThirtyEight peak of 55.1% in March and the RCP peak of 55.7% in April.
Despite showing Trump edging Biden in an election today, most told Rasmussen that they do not regret their 2020 vote. Some 89% said so, led by 95% of Republicans. For Democrats, it was less, 87%.
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Liberals Shouldnt Be So Worried About Biden
A fear among liberal skeptics of Biden is that his pragmatism represents a retreat from the partys leftward momentum. Thats true in one sense. He doesnt pass progressive purity tests on issues like Medicare-for-all. On paper, his plans are less ambitious.
But hed still be the most progressive Democratic nominee in history if he won.
His plans line up closer with the center of gravity in the party, but in recent years the center has moved much further left than even during the Barack Obama years. For example, Biden isnt willing to replace the Affordable Care Act with a new, single-payer system like Warren or Sanderss Medicare-for-all. But he does want to improve on it with a major new addition, an expansive public option. Hed also cap premiums at 8.5 percent of a patients income.
These might seem small relative to the scope of Medicare-for-all, but Medicare-for-all has pretty much no chance of becoming law, and its likely to spark a damaging intraparty fight among congressional Democrats that harms the chances of passing any health care bill.
Lamb pointed out that there probably arent enough votes in the Democratic-controlled House to pass it, never mind a Republican-controlled Senate . And the key Senate Democrats who will drive health care policy if Democrats retake the gavel have already said Medicare-for-all is a nonstarter.
Woodfin agreed, echoing Lambs point that most Americans dont favor Medicare-for-all even among Democrats, the enthusiasm has .
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Joseph R Biden Jr Former Vice President
Mr. Bidens argument about being the most electable candidate is increasingly not the subtext of his campaign its the text.
But it wasnt until the closing portion of the debate that he said Democrats had to be mindful of who can win and bring some coattails to ensure the party reclaims the Senate.
Who has the best chance, most likely chance, of defeating Donald Trump, who is the one most likely to do that? he asked, before continuing: Who can help elect Democrats to the United States Senate in states like North Carolina and Georgia and Arizona and other states?
For most of the night Thursday, however, he avoided stating why hed be the Democrat most likely to win against Mr. Trump, instead trumpeting his knowledge of foreign affairs and boasting that hes running on his near half-century in politics. With my experience comes judgment and a little bit of wisdom, Mr. Biden said.
Mr. Biden had one of his better debate performances Thursday, in part because he was able to make a succinct pitch for his viability and even more because he watched two of his most daunting rivals in Iowa, Mr. Buttigieg and Ms. Warren, tangle with each other.
Betting Odds For President Donald Trump
Before we weigh each of the Democrats chances of beating Trump, we need to look at the odds for Trump himself and determine if his chances are rising or falling.
- % Change: +7.62%
- Trump has been favored to win re-election since the start of the year and his chances of winning have continued to rise in 2019. This is likely due to two factors: 1) Were slowly getting closer to the election and incumbents always have an edge and 2) The public money does not believe he will be impeached, which gives him a clear path to be on the ballot as the Republican nominee when the 2020 election rolls around whereas the Democratic nomination is much more uncertain.
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An Examination Of The 2020 Electorate Based On Validated Voters
Pew Research Center conducted this study to understand how Americans voted in 2020 and how their turnout and vote choices differed from 2016 and 2018. For this analysis, we surveyed U.S. adults online and verified their turnout in the three general elections using commercial voter files that aggregate official state turnout records. Panelists for whom a record of voting was located are considered validated voters all others are presumed not to have voted.
We surveyed 11,818 U.S. adults online in November 2020, 10,640 adults in November 2018 and 4,183 adults in November and December 2016. The surveys were supplemented with measures taken from annual recruitment and profile surveys conducted in 2018 and 2020. Everyone who took part is a member of Pew Research Centers American Trends Panel , an online survey panel recruited through national, random sampling of telephone numbers or, since 2018, residential addresses. This way nearly all U.S. adults have a chance of selection. The surveys are weighted to be representative of the U.S. adult population by gender, race, ethnicity, partisan affiliation, education, turnout and vote choice in the three elections, and many other characteristics. Read more about the ATPs methodology.
Validated voters, defined
Here are some of the other key findings from the analysis:
National Polls Show Lower White And Older Support For Trump
Exit polls released by the national election consortium Edison Research allow for national- and state-level comparisons with those from 2016. Figure 1 shows the shifts in Democratic minus Republican voter margins for racial groups.
While whites continued to favor the Republican candidate in 2020as they have in every presidential election since 1968it is notable that this margin was reduced from 20% to 17% nationally. At the same time, the Democratic margins for each of the major nonwhite groups was somewhat reduced. The Black Democratic marginwhile still high, at 75%was the lowest in a presidential election since 2004. The Latino or Hispanic and Asian American Democratic margins of 33% and 27% were the lowest since the 2004 and 2008 elections, respectively. These shifts do not apply to all states, and are not applicable to most battleground states where voters of color were crucial to Bidens win
It is clear that white voting blocs start at different levels of Democratic or Republican support. In fact, there was a modest decline in Republican support in a key Trump base: white men without college educations. This group showed a reduced Republican advantage from 48% to a still sizeable 42% between 2016 and 2020.
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Which States Will Decide This Election
As Mrs Clinton discovered in 2016, the number of votes you win is less important than where you win them.
Most states nearly always vote the same way, meaning that in reality there are just a handful of states where both candidates stand a chance of winning. These are the places where the election will be won and lost and are known as battleground states.
In the electoral college system the US uses to elect its president, each state is given a number of votes based on how many members it sends to Congress – House and Senate. A total of 538 electoral college votes are up for grabs, so a candidate needs to hit 270 to win.
As the map above shows, some battleground states have a lot more electoral college votes on offer than others so candidates often spend a lot more time campaigning in them.