With The Primaries Over Both Parties Are Shifting Their Focus To The General Election On Nov 8
- Midterm Data: Could the 2020 polling miss repeat itself? Will this election cycle really be different? Nate Cohn, The Timess chief political analyst, looks at the data in his new newsletter.
- Democrats Dilemma: The partys candidates have been trying to signal their independence from the White House, while not distancing themselves from President Bidens base or agenda.
And David Farnsworth won a State Senate primary against Rusty Bowers, the Arizona House speaker who drew Trump supporters fury for resisting efforts to overturn the 2020 election and for testifying before the Jan. 6 congressional committee.
Trump Made 17 Endorsements In Recent Primaries Here Are The Winners
In Smiths New Jersey seat, the distortion was even greater. He said he was fielding constant questions from voters on why he voted to impeach Trump which he didnt. And he accused his opponent of spreading that falsehood.
Frankly, there were more lies in this race than I ever had in 23 races. I first ran in 78, Smith said in an interview after his primary.
His defeated GOP challenger, Mike Crispi, said he never accused Smith of that but added that voters were so angry at his Jan. 6 commission vote that they look at it as a third impeachment.
People are connecting a Jan. 6 vote to impeachment, I cant help that they do that, Crispi said. I cant help that they look at his record that is so left and then correlate it with being anti-Trump.
Crispi hasnt ruled out another challenge and he believes hes already had an impact on Smith, after receiving grateful calls and texts last week when the incumbent declined to support Congress new bipartisan gun safety package.
He definitely is voting more carefully, Crispi said. That gun control bill shows that were in his head because in any other circumstance, he would have voted yes on that.
About Half Of Republicans Like Leaders Who Contend Trump Won 2020 Election
Among Republicans, strength of partisanship is closely associated with feelings about Donald Trump and his unsupported assertion that he was the legitimate winner of the 2020 presidential election.
Overall, 51% of Republicans say they like political leaders who assert this, compared with 17% who dislike such leaders. About a third of Republicans say they neither like nor dislike leaders who assert that Trump was the legitimate winner.
Nearly six-in-ten Republicans who identify strongly with the Republican Party say they like political leaders who assert that Trump won, including 39% who like such leaders a lot. Just 11% of strong Republicans dislike leaders who assert Trump was the winner in 2020, while 29% say they neither like nor dislike leaders who assert this.
Strong Republicans represent a much larger share of Republicans than those who identify with the party but not as strongly 70% of all Republicans say they strongly identify with the Republican Party.
Republican-leaning independents, like those who identify as Republicans but not strongly, have mixed views of leaders who claim that Trump was the rightful election winner. A third of independents who lean toward the Republican Party dislike leaders who assert Trump was the winner of the most recent presidential election, compared with 24% who like leaders who assert this. The largest share of Republican leaners 43% say they neither like nor dislike leaders who assert that Trump won in 2020.
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A Win For Election Deniers In Nevada
Adam Laxaltwon a primary to face Senator Catherine Cortez Masto, who is seen as one of the most vulnerable Democrats this fall. Mr. Laxalt, a former attorney general, was endorsed by Mr. Trump and had helped lead his efforts to overturn the presidential election results in Nevada.
Joseph Lombardo, the Las Vegas sheriff, won the Republican nomination for governor and will face the incumbent, Gov. Steve Sisolak, a Democrat.
Republicans Cant Understand Democrats
Only one in four Republican voters felt that most or almost all Democratic voters sincerely believed they were voting in the best interests of the country. Rather, many Republicans told us that Democratic voters were brainwashed by the propaganda of the mainstream media, or voting solely in their self-interest to preserve undeserved welfare and food stamp benefits.
We asked every Republican in the sample to do their best to imagine that they were a Democrat and sincerely believed that the Democratic Party was best for the country. We asked them to explain their support for the Democratic Party as an actual Democratic voter might. For example, a 64-year-old strong Republican man from Illinois surmised that Democrats want to help the poor, save Social Security, and tax the rich.
But most had trouble looking at the world through Democratic eyes. Typical was a a 59-year-old Floridian who wrote I dont want to work and I want cradle to grave assistance. In other words, Mommy! Indeed, roughly one in six Republican voters answered in the persona of a Democratic voter who is motivated free college, free health care, free welfare, and so on. They see Democrats as voting in order to get free stuff without having to work for it was extremely common roughly one in six Republican voters used the word free in the their answers, whereas no real Democratic voters in our sample answered this way.
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Half Of Republicans Line Up Behind Trump In Fight With Fbi: Reuters/ipsos Poll
Donald Trump departs Trump Tower two days after FBI agents raided his Mar-a-Lago Palm Beach home, in New York City, New York, U.S., August 10, 2022. REUTERS/David ‘Dee’ Delgado/File Photo
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WASHINGTON, Aug 18 – Half of U.S. Republicans say federal law enforcement officials behaved irresponsibly since searching former President Donald Trump’s Florida home for classified documents taken from the White House, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found this week.
FBI agents on Aug. 8 removed 11 sets of classified records from Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, some of which were labeled “top secret,” a status reserved for the most sensitive U.S. national security information.
Trump announced that the search had taken place and has alleged without providing evidence that it was a politically motivated act, while Democratic President Joe Biden’s Justice Department has said it is applying the law impartially.
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The two-day Reuters/Ipsos poll completed on Wednesday suggests Republican voters could be largely siding with Trump despite the Republican Party’s longstanding support for law enforcement.
Still, a significant slice of Republican respondents backed the FBI in the poll, a view closer to those of prominent Republicans such as former Vice President Mike Pence who on Wednesday called on the party to stop attacking the agency.
Baggage Is As Baggage Does
There are three things which could, in principle, make Mr Trump less formidable: the depredations of age, legal sanctions and political misjudgments. On the first, at 76 a sudden, severe deterioration in health is obviously possible. That said, the former president appears hale and hearty.
His legal jeopardy seems more acute. The fbis dropping by Mar-a-Lago is only one of his problems. His business dealings are under investigation in New York. The House Committee on Ways and Means is making progress in its efforts to look at his tax records. State prosecutors in Georgia have empanelled a grand jury that is investigating his exhortation that Mr Raffensperger find 11,780 votes somewhere in the state in order to overturn his election loss. It has already issued subpoenas to compel testimony from allies such as Rudy Giuliani, Mr Trumps lawyer, and Lindsey Graham, a senator from South Carolina. Investigators at the Department of Justice are closely following the work of the January 6th committee and have been seizing mobile phones and documents from those most closely involved in the efforts to keep Mr Trump in power.
The possibility of indictments may hasten Mr Trumps announcement of his candidacy, the better to play the victim. Casting the prosecution of a presidential candidate as a deep-state conspiracy is peculiarly compelling.
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Is Trump Losing Gop Support 43% Of Republicans Want New Leaders: Poll
Former President Donald Trump appears to still be the dominant driving force within the Republican Party, according to most political analysts as well as GOP lawmakersincluding his critics. But a new poll Sunday shows that a substantial minority of Republican voters would prefer new leaders instead of Trump.
Trump has largely been viewed as a polarizing political figure, even within his own party. So called “Never Trumpers” continue to push back against his influence and control of the GOP, even as their years-long efforts have often appeared futile to curb his support among the Republican base. As this year’s GOP primaries continue, Trump’s preferred candidates have dominatedwinning in nearly all their contests thus far.
Meanwhile, a poll released by NBC News/Hart Research Associates/Public Opinion Strategies showed that a significant chunk of Republican primary voters actually prefer that someone else would take the reins of leading their party. The survey found that a third of Republican primary voters believe Trump was a good president, but that it’s time for new leaders. An additional 10 percent said Trump was a bad president and it is now time for their party to move on.
The survey was carried out from May 5 to 7 and 9 to 10. It included interviews with 1,000 adults.
How The Fbis Activity Is Being Framed
The FBIs activity on Monday in Palm Beach acting on a warrant reportedly related to a probe involving Trumps handling of top secret documents provided a dramatic picture of the unprecedented examination of a former president by federal, state and local investigators on the civil and criminal front.
Three in 4 voters said they had seen, read or heard at least something about the FBIs raid by the time of the survey, with little variation by political affiliation. In turn, most voters aligned with reporting that the search was related to mishandling of classified information, compared with 32% who thought it was related to Jan. 6 and 14% who said it was something else.
In a statement, Trump called the FBIs search an act of political persecution and a Witch Hunt designed to harm the political movement he leads. While much of the Republican electorate buys that charge, the message does not appear to have legs with the broader public.
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A Split In South Carolina House Races
RepresentativeTom Rice, one of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Mr. Trump, lost to his Trump-backed challenger, State Representative Russell Fry.
But RepresentativeNancy Mace defeated her Trump-endorsed opponent, the former state lawmaker Katie Arrington. Ms. Mace had said that Mr. Trump bore responsibility for the Jan. 6 attack but did not vote to impeach him.
Traits Of The Parties Trump And The Gop
Slightly more than half of U.S. adults say the Democratic Party is too extreme in its positions, while a somewhat larger share say the same about the Republican Party. Similarly, while 61% say the phrase too often makes excuses for party members with hateful views describes the Republican Party very or somewhat well, 51% say this about the Democratic Party.
Americans are slightly more likely to say the Democratic Party supports policies that interfere too much in peoples lives than to describe the Republican Party this way .
The Democratic Party holds a sizable advantage with the public on being seen as respectful and tolerant of different types of people. Nearly six-in-ten say this describes the Democratic Party at least somewhat well 38% say the same for the GOP.
And while the Democratic Party also holds modest advantages on respecting the countrys democratic institutions and traditions and on governing honestly and ethically, neither party rates highly among the public on these measures. While 45% characterize the Republican Party as respecting the countrys democratic institutions, 51% say the same about the Democratic Party. And just 37% say the phrase governs in an honest and ethical way describes the Republican Party at least somewhat well, with 43% saying this description applies to Democrats.
Partisans overwhelmingly offer criticisms of the other party while evaluating their own in generally positive terms.
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Number Of Republicans Who Say They Support Trump Over Gop Rises: Poll
Republicans who support former President Trump more than they support the GOP climbed to 41 percent in August, up 7 points from May when 34 percent said they supported Trump more than the party, according to an NBC News poll released Sunday.
A slim majority of Republicans, or 50 percent, say they support the party more than they do Trump, the poll finds. But thats down from 58 percent in May.
The former president continues to wield immense influence over the Republican Party. He has heavily influenced the defeat of eight out of 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach him over the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol, either by pressuring them to resign or backing primary challengers.
The most high-profile loss came last week, when Rep. Liz Cheney , arguably his fiercest critic in the GOP, was defeated by more than 40 points from a Trump-endorsed challenger.
Trump saw Republicans rally behind him this month yet again after the FBI searched his home in connection to an investigation into whether he violated the Espionage Act, among other statutes, by taking classified documents home with him upon leaving the White House.
Republicans decried the unprecedented search of a former presidents home, calling it a politically motivated witch hunt.
Most Americans, or 57 percent, say the investigations into Trump should continue, according to the NBC News poll.
Republican Voters On Their Preferred Candidate For President
If the Republican 2024 presidential primary were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:
Asked of 350 respondents who said they planned to vote in the 2024 Republican primary in a New York Times/Siena College poll from July 5-7, 2022. Respondents who answered someone else or did not offer a response are not shown.
The greatest threat to usurp Mr. Trump within the party is Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, who was the second choice with 25 percent and the only other contender with double-digit support. Among primary voters, Mr. DeSantis was the top choice of younger Republicans, those with a college degree and those who said they voted for President Biden in 2020.
While about one-fourth of Republicans said they didnt know enough to have an opinion about Mr. DeSantis, he was well-liked by those who did. Among those who voted for Mr. Trump in 2020, 44 percent said they had a very favorable opinion of Mr. DeSantis similar to the 46 percent who said the same about Mr. Trump.
Should Mr. DeSantis and Mr. Trump face off in a primary, the poll suggested that support from Fox News could prove crucial: Mr. Trump held a 62 percent to 26 percent advantage over Mr. DeSantis among Fox News viewers, while the gap between the two Floridians was 16 points closer among Republicans who mainly receive their news from another source.
Mr. Trumps troubles inside his party leave him hamstrung in a matchup against an unusually vulnerable incumbent.
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Republicans Are Rallying Around Trump Following The Fbi Raid Thats Good News For Biden
Biden wouldnt dare touch the politics of a criminal investigation, according to White House officials and party operatives. But at a time when most Democrats want a different nominee in 2024, the GOPs elevation of Trump plays into the current presidents hands.
The more Democrats see Trump, the more they view Biden as their best bet for 2024, said Democratic lawmakers and operatives across the partys ideological spectrum. One added that recent events have increased the likelihood that the president announces a re-election bid this year.
As Trumps stock rises in the Republican Party, so does Bidens with Democrats, said Brad Howard, a lobbyist and former aide to members of the moderate Blue Dog Coalition in the House. If President Trump is still a factor, that is a continued benefit for President Biden and his case for renomination.
The prospect of a heavyweight fight helps both Biden and Trump, added a prominent House progressive who spoke on the condition of anonymity to avoid upsetting liberals who arent thrilled with Biden. The Republican response to the FBI search of Trumps Mar-a-Lago home all but assures them both the nomination, the lawmaker said.
And It Is Putting His Acolytes Into Offices That Control Elections
Like his presidency, the after-presidency of Donald Trump is riddled with extreme contradictions. Here is a man deeply mired in investigations into a range of possible crimesa mire it is hard to imagine any previous politician escaping. And yet he is so powerful within his party that his disapproval can sink the career of almost any elected representative who speaks out against him, no matter how unassailable their pedigree or impeccable their credentials. Two events, only eight days apart, prove the paradox.
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On August 8th fbi agents turned up at Mar-a-Lago, Mr Trumps club and private mansion in Florida, with a warrant to search the premises for top-secret documents and presidential records kept in violation of federal laws, including the Espionage Act. They left with 11 boxes of material. Mr Trump is no stranger to litigation, and indeed to criminal investigation but this was something new even for him.
Most candidates seeking to run as a Republican this year have seen a kiss from the king as essential to victoryand fear his possibly fatal displeasure. In races for open seats, Mr Trumps endorsement picks have won four in five times . As a result, the party which lost the White House and the Senate two years ago is going into the forthcoming elections looking more, not less, like the man who led it to that defeat.
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