Tuesday, September 27, 2022

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Can Joe Biden Defeat Donald Trump

When Does Joe Biden Become President

Smerconish: Why Trump can beat Biden in 2024

First the votes need to be certified in each of the states. Thats usually a formality and happens in the next few weeks.

Its written in the US Constitution that the new term of office begins on 20 January at noon.

It happens at a ceremony called the inauguration which takes place in the capital, Washington DC. The new president and vice-president take an oath of office administered by the Supreme Court chief justice.

So expect to see Joe Biden and Kamala Harris inaugurated on 20 January 2021.

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Donald Trump Rnc Video Featuring Marines Resurfaces After Biden Speech Fury

A video showing former President Donald Trump and two serving U.S. Marines that aired at the 2020 Republican National Convention has resurfaced amid controversy surrounding President Joe Biden‘s speech on Thursday.

Two uniformed members of the U.S. Marine Corps stood behind Biden as he delivered a prime time speech in Philadelphia where he described Trump and MAGA Republicans as a threat to democracy.

The appearance of the two Marines quickly became the subject of criticism from some Republicans and media commentators who expressed concern that active duty personnel could be seen while Biden delivered a speech strongly criticizing political opponents.

Ron Filipkowksi, an ex-Republican lawyer who resigned from his position on a state judicial commission after a police raid on a former coronavirus data scientist, shared a video to on Friday that showed two uniformed marines opening a door for former President Trump and then saluting as he passed.

That video had aired at the RNC on August 25, 2020 and was controversial at the time, leading some to criticize Trump for using footage of the marines at a political convention in potential violation of the Defense Department’s longstanding policy against service members participating in political rallies while in uniform.

The footage was from a naturalization ceremony that Trump had attended at the White House and the Marine Corps defended the servicemen’s role, saying they “were at their assigned place of duty.”

The Personal Is Political

If you were to go searching for the molten core of Joe Bidens politics, you could do worse than this passage from his book Promise Me, Dad:

My old friend Tip ONeill, the twentieth centurys most colorful and successful Speaker of the House, famously said, All politics is local. Ive been around long enough to presume to improve on that statement. I believe all politics is personal, because at bottom, politics depends on trust, and unless you can establish a personal relationship, its awfully hard to build trust.

This is the core of Bidenism. Its also the core problem of it. As his many critics have pointed out myself included the relational politics that defined the Senate decades ago have fallen before the structural polarization of modern American politics. Biden often seemed caged by his affection for the Senate of yore, musing proudly of the deals he cut with segregationist senators like Mississippis James Eastland. But that Senate, for better and for much, much worse, was a product of the mixed political parties of the past. Its gone now.

As Biden wrote, personal relationships build trust. And trust builds a foundation upon which negotiation and compromise the core work of politics, as Biden sees it is possible. And so the Biden-Sanders relationship birthed the Biden-Sanders task forces, which was, to my eyes, the most impressive and interesting decision of Bidens campaign.

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For All The Parallels There Are Also Big Differences In Wisconsin Polling Numbers

What about the differences?

There are some big ones.

In 2018, Democratic voters were more enthusiastic than Republican voters. This time, the enthusiasm gap has favored Republicans, though it narrowed in the last Marquette poll.

Voters were much more upbeat in 2018 than they are in 2022 about where their state is headed.

Walker lost his bid for a third term despite this. In the summer of 2018, 52% of voters said Wisconsin was going in the right direction and 42% said it was headed on the wrong track. On the eve of the election, right direction had climbed to 55% and wrong track had dropped to 40%.

But while 55% of voters were happy with where the state was headed, only 48% of those who turned out to vote backed Walker. A critical fraction of the electorate was satisfied with conditions but wanted to turn the page on a lightning-rod governor who had served eight years, already achieved his agenda, and frequently left the state during his second term in a failed bid for president.

While Walker barely lost despite underperforming the states right track number, Evers will have to dramatically overperform right track to have a shot at winning.

Thats because the electorate is a lot more pessimistic today. Combining Marquettes last two polls , only 36% say the state is headed in the right direction about 20 points lower than on the eve of the 2018 election. Yet Evers’ approval, at 47%, is much higher than the right track number.

How has he managed that?

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If Republicans can

These include tax cuts that especially benefited corporations and the wealthy, hard-line immigration policies, efforts to dismantle the 2010 Obamacare healthcare law and Mr Trumps abandonment of such international agreements as the Paris climate accord and Iran nuclear deal.

Should Republicans keep control of the US Senate, they would likely block large parts of his legislative agenda, including expanding healthcare and fighting climate change.

That prospect could depend on the outcome of four undecided Senate races, including two in Georgia.

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In another historic first: California Sen. Kamala Harris becomes the first woman and first woman of color to be elected vice president.

Biden pitched himself as a leader who would be “president for all Americans — not just the ones who vote for me” — in stark contrast to Trump who spoke of a country divided into blue states and red states.

Bringing the nation together, given all Americans have been through, will be a daunting and unprecedented challenge.

Turning 78 in just under three weeks, Biden will be the oldest president to take office.

His rise to the White House comes 48 years to the day he was first elected to the U.S. Senate.

Biden Calls For Election Of Lawmakers Who Will Codify Roe V Wade

To be fair, he has accomplished several important things since taking office, such as building an international coalition to fight Vladimir Putin in Ukraine while keeping China on the sidelines. His aggressive push to get more people in the U.S. vaccinated has also been a huge success 67% of the population are now fully vaccinated, and 78% have received at least one dose. Another major win was his signing into law the first major gun safety measure in more than 30 years. And finally, perhaps most importantly, Biden has returned a sense of normalcy to the presidency after the tumultuous Trump era.

However, in other key areas, the president has failed to meet the moment by not adequately addressing important kitchen table issues across the country. His anemic response to concerns about rising gas prices has been a point of contention that cuts across party lines, as have his plans for combating inflation, of which now nearly 3 in 4 Americans disapprove, according to an ABC News poll.

His milquetoast response to the overturning of Roe vs. Wade falls short of some of the more aggressive tactics championed by Democratic New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and other progressives, such as expanding the Supreme Courtor moving abortion clinics to federal lands.

On the other hand, his inability to reign in his partys progressive wing is turning off critical swing voting blocs, including Latinos.

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Voting Patterns In The 2020 Election

The 2020 election featured continuity in the voting patterns of major demographic and political groups in the population, but there were a few important shifts. The gender gap in the 2020 election was narrower than it had been in 2016 as Democrats made gains among men and Republicans made gains among women. In the 2016 election, Donald Trump won men by 11 percentage points while Hillary Clinton won women by 15 points . In the 2018 election, Democrats substantially narrowed the gap with men while maintaining an 18-point lead among women. In the 2020 election, men again divided nearly evenly , while Bidens advantage narrowed to 11 points among women .

Similarly, as Biden increased his level of support among White men in the 2020 election relative to Clintons in 2016, Trump gained among White women, which had the effect of further narrowing the gender gap among White voters. In 2016, Trump won White men by 30 points . That gap narrowed to a 17-point margin for Trump in 2020 . White women, a group sometimes categorized as swing voters and who broke nearly evenly in 2016 , favored him in 2020 .

Biden received the support of 92% of Black voters, nearly the same as Clinton received in 2016 and Democratic candidates for the U.S. House received in 2018.

Party and ideology

Age and generation

Geography

Religion

White non-evangelical Protestants voted for Trump over Biden by a 14-point margin , while Black Protestants were an overwhelmingly Democratic group .

Voting Methods In The 2020 Presidential Election

How Joe Biden Defeated Donald Trump | NYT Opinion

The 2020 election brought a huge change in howAmericans cast their ballots. As some states looked to adapt to challenges in administering elections amid the COVID-19 pandemic, large numbers of voters were offered expanded access to absentee and vote-by-mail options in the 2020 election. As a result, a record number of voters said they cast their ballots this way . And smaller shares of voters said they either voted in person on Election Day or in person before Election Day .

A majority of absentee voters said they had previously voted this way before the 2020 election . Still, a sizable share said the November election was the first time they had cast an absentee or mail ballot.

Sizable shares of voters across racial and ethnic subgroups cast absentee or mail-in ballots in the 2020 election though there are some differences in voting methods when comparing across groups. White voters were most likely to say they voted in person on Election Day . Comparably smaller shares of Black and Hispanic voters said the same.

Black voters were more likely than White or Hispanic voters to say they cast their ballot in person before Election Day .

Voters ages 65 and older stand out in their voting behavior: 55% say they voted absentee or by mail in the 2020 election 13 percentage points higher than the share of adults under 65 who cast a ballot by mail.

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Biden Defeats Trump To Win White House Nbc News Projects

WILMINGTON, Del. Joe Biden became president-elect Saturday after winning the pivotal state of Pennsylvania, NBC News projected.

Biden had amassed 279 Electoral College votes after winning Pennsylvania’s 20 electors and Nevada’s 6 electors, according to NBC News, surpassing the 270 needed to win the White House and defeat President Donald Trump.

NBC News called the race in Pennsylvania for Biden at 11:24 a.m. ET, bringing Biden’s Electoral College vote total to 273 and allowing the network to call the election for him. Shortly after 2 p.m. ET, NBC News called the race in Nevada for Biden.

Biden’s victory capped one of the longest and most tumultuous campaigns in modern history, in which he maintained an aggressive focus on Trump’s widely criticized handling of the Covid-19 pandemic. A majority of voters said rising coronavirus case numbers were a significant factor in their votes, according to early results from the NBC News Exit Poll of early and Election Day voters.

Biden regularly criticized Trump as unfit for office and positioned his campaign as a “battle for the soul of America.” He promised from the outset of his run to heal and unite the country if he won, and he made central to his closing message a pledge to represent both those who voted for him as well as those who didn’t when he got to the White House.

“I am honored and humbled by the trust the American people have placed in me and in Vice President-elect Harris,” Biden said.

Kamala Harris

Joe Biden Defeats Donald Trump For President In Bitter And Historic Election

It’s his third try for the White House after nearly 50 years in public life.

After nearly 50 years in public life and three tries for the White House, former Vice President Joe Biden is the apparent winner of the presidency, defeating incumbent President Donald Trump in a victory delayed by vote counts and complicated by potential legal challenges.

ABC News projects it was Pennsylvania that gave him the electoral votes he needed, and Biden, who was born in Scranton, has said his early life there has always been “a touchstone — where I learned my values.”

On Election Day, he had stopped at his childhood home and written on a living room wall: “From this house to the White House with the grace of God.”

Painting the election as a “battle for the soul of the nation,” Biden won on a message of unity over division, compassion over anger, and reality over what he called Trump’s “wishful thinking” as the coronavirus pandemic cast a heavy shadow over the campaign.

In some of his first words after being called the winner: more of that message.

“America, Im honored that you have chosen me to lead our great county,” Biden tweeted, with his profile changed to President-elect. “The work ahead of us will be hard, but I promise you this: I will be a President for all Americans whether you voted for me or not.”

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What If Trump Doesnt Concede

Donald Trump has previously said he will contest the results. If his efforts to do so are unsuccessful, the pressure on him to publicly admit defeat will mount. But does he have to?

The concession phone call from a losing candidate to the victor is a respected tradition of American politics. It is by no means obligatory, however.

In 2018, for instance, Democratic governor candidate Stacey Abrams claimed voter fraud and intimidation and never conceded to Brian Kemp, her Republican opponent.

Thats never happened in a modern presidential race, however. But as in Georgia, as long as election results are legally processed and certified, the machinery of government will grind on, regardless of what Mr Trump may do.

While Mr Trump doesnt have to concede, or even put on a good face and attend Mr Bidens inauguration, he does have some legal obligations. He must authorise his administration to make the logistical preparations for Bidens team to take over.

Donald Trump ascended to the presidency as an unconventional candidate unafraid to break long-established norms and traditions. If he so desires, he could exit the office that way, as well.

Why Does It Matter

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Wisconsin sided with the Democratic candidate in all presidential elections from 1988 through 2012, although sometimes by very narrow margins. In 2016, Trump managed to flip the state despite his underdog status in the polls.

Americans are also electing members to the two chambers of Congress, the main law-making body of the US. Those chambers are the Senate and the House of Representatives.

Without support in the Senate and the House, the president’s ability to enact key policies is severely limited.

The winner of the election is determined through a system called the electoral college. Each of the 50 states, plus Washington DC, is given a number of electoral college votes, adding up to a total of 538 votes. More populous states get more electoral college votes than smaller ones.

A candidate needs to win 270 electoral college votes to win the election.

In every state except two Maine and Nebraska the candidate that gets the most votes wins all of the states electoral college votes.

Due to these rules, a candidate can win the election without getting the most votes at the national level. This happened at the last election, in which Donald Trump won a majority of electoral college votes although more people voted for Hillary Clinton across the US.

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Trumps Fixation On The Past Puts His Political Future In Limbo

But some Trump allies believe he may ultimately opt against a run, either for health reasons or, if Bidens poll numbers rebound, because he doesnt want to risk a second loss, even though he has yet to acknowledge the first defeat.

So far, a slew of prominent Republicans have begun making overt moves to run in 2024. Whether they will abandon their own White House dreams if the former president were to run again is another matter entirely.

Former Vice President Mike Pence, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Sens. Tom Cotton and Ted Cruz are among those who made appearances in early voting states, and some have started securing top political consultants. Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley has hinted shed mount a bid but wouldnt run against Trump if he decides to enter the race. Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson has suggested he may run even if Trump does. And there is Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has emerged as an heir-apparent to Trump and the populist MAGA movement.

Things may be just as uncertain on the Democratic side of the ledger. If Biden opts against seeking reelection, the field may not clear out for Vice President Kamala Harris, who has yet to find her political footing in the role. Two 2020 candidates, Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Cory Booker , each have held recent high-profile events on hot button election topics.

If Biden opts to seek a second term, a serious primary challenge would be unlikely.

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