That Didn’t Take Long An Overnight Panic In Global Markets Evaporated As Wall Street Gave An Emphatic Welcome To President
The Dow soared 257 points and brushed up against lifetime highs on Wednesday, in defiance of those who predicted Trump’s election would bring about a plunge in the stock market. The S& P 500 and the Nasdaq rose 1.1% apiece.
The impressive market performance represents a dramatic reversal from the knee-jerk panic in global markets overnight as the results were coming in. Dow futures plummeted nearly 900 points at one point as investors expressed fear that no one would emerge victorious and concern about the inherent uncertainties brought on by a Trump White House.
But a sense of relative calm returned to the markets by morning. The rally gathered momentum midday after Hillary Clinton, Wall Street’s favored candidate, officially conceded.
“The selloff last night was an hysterical reaction,” said David Bianco, chief U.S. equity strategist at Deutsche Bank. “There are a lot of potentially damaging policies that could be introduced, but we think sober minds will prevail.”
Peter Kenny, an independent market strategist, admitted that the market has “greeted Trump with a far more positive footing than I expected. He’s receiving a very warm welcome.”
The Mexican peso plummeted over 11% at one point to a new all-time low against the U.S. dollar. Top Mexican finance officials said they would take steps to shore up the peso, but failed to lay out concrete details.
The Stock Market Loves Biden More Than Trump So Far At Least
Stocks have soared under the new president, and the Dow has generally preferred Democrats since 1901. But dont count on that for the future.
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By Jeff Sommer
From the moment he was elected president in 2016 through his failed campaign for re-election, Donald J. Trumpinvoked the stock market as a report card on the presidency.
The market loved him, Mr. Trump said, and it hated Democrats, particularly his opponent, Joseph R. Biden Jr. During the presidential debate in October, Mr. Trump warned of Mr. Biden: If hes elected, the market will crash. In a variety of settings, he said that Democrats would be a disaster and that a victory for them would set off a depression, which would make the stock market disintegrate.
So far, it hasnt turned out that way.
To the extent that the Dow Jones industrial average measures the stock markets affection for a president, its early report card says the market loves President Bidens first days in office considerably more than it loved those of President Trump.
Mr. Biden would get an A for this early period Mr. Trump would receive a B for the market performance during his first days as president, though he would get a higher mark for much of the rest of his term.
Russell 2000 Outperforms S& p 500 Soaring 3%
Trump supporters gather outside Trump Tower in New York City on Election Day.
U.S. stocks rallied Wednesday, with the Dow industrials jumping 257 points, led by a surge in financial, health-care and industrial stocks, as investors bet on the infrastructure spending policy promised by President-elect Donald Trump.
Trumps acceptance speech early Wednesday mentioning Keynesian-style spending and sounding a touch more conciliatory than had been the case during his campaign appeared to reset investors expectations.
The 70-year-old real-estate developer pledged to supporters gathered in New York City that he will be president for all Americans.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, led the gains, rallying more than 7%.
The S& P 500 index SPX, was one of the clearest winners, surging 13%.
Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite COMP,
Read:Trump victory divides stock market into winners and losers
Some analysts said the positive reaction in markets reflects the notion that the election results haven’t changed the fundamentals of the economy.
Not much changes short-term except emotions and rhetoric. So dips are opportunities because fundamentals are positive and if Trump plans to spend more, the economy and stocks will move higher next year too. Stocks are very resilient, said Kate Warne, investment strategist at Edward Jones.
Read: Trump says he will honor forgotten men and women as president
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What The Current Lines Tell Us About The Chance Of Trump Winning In 2024
The odds suggest that Trump will lose in 2024 , but they offer compelling payouts for bettors who want to take a chance. Still, with the Vegas Trump odds provided, it is difficult for the former POTUS to be considered a sure bet, and he is favored to lose across all three of our top-rated sportsbooks.
President Donald Trumps Running Policies
Trumps 2020 Presidential campaign used a lot of ideas presented during his 2016 campaign. Trump was still railing against illegal immigration and globalism while promising legislation and executive actions to improve the economy, create more jobs, and install stronger foreign policies.
For 2020, his slogan was changed from Make America Great Again to Keep America Great. These platforms worked well in 2016, and his greater focus on economic recovery should have increased the odds of Trump being re-elected the second time around. However, the coronavirus and 1619 Riots derailed that considerably.
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Us Stocks Close At New All
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S& P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite Index all powered to record high closes as Joe Biden became the 46th president of the US.
Major US stock indexes closed at new all-time highs on Wednesday as Joe Biden became the 46th president of the United States, fuelling investor wagers that more generous coronavirus relief aid will be unleashed under his new administration.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained more than 257 points or 0.83 percent to finish at 31,188.38.
The S& P 500 a proxy for the health of US retirement and college savings accounts closed up more than 52 points or 1.39 percent at 3,851.85.
And the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index finished the session more than 260 points or 1.97 percent higher, ending at a record 13,457.248.
Outgoing President Donald Trump left the White House on Wednesday morning for the last time during his term and became the first president in over a century and a half to not attend his successors inauguration.
Speaking at a press conference prior to his departure from Washington, DC, Trump touted the strength of the US stock market during his time in office and its comeback from last years pandemic lows.
The stock market is actually substantially higher than it was at its higher point prior to the pandemic, Trump told reporters, adding, We built it twice.
The recovery also started to stall in the final three months of 2020 as surging COVID-19 infections ushered in business-sapping restrictions.
What Was The Stock Market On January 20th
A 1% or 339-point drop led to the fall of the Dow Jones Industrial Average . A total of 35,028 points were scored by the market. A notable aspect of the day was the rise of the index from red to green, representing 21 points. There were 14,340 shares on the Nasdaq Composite index. The result is a 1, sliding 26 on the slide. 19% or 166 was the maximum for 2007. A weak performance by large-cap technology stocks has resulted in a 64 point drop.
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Its The Economy Stupid
The old election adage, its the economy, stupid usually rings true. Presidents historically win re-election when the economy is strong. And right now, the numbers are good for Trump.
The chart above depicts the Misery Index a gauge that measures the average Americans confidence in the economy. Not only is the index at multi-decade lows, but it has been trending down since Trump took office.
Historically, this almost always leads to re-election for the incumbent president. A recent Gallup poll also revealed that Americans rate Trumps handling of the economy higher than any president for the last 20 years.
What Was The Dow Jones When Obama Took Office
President Barack Obama first took office on Jan. 20, 2009. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had been in a bit of a slump since the 2008 economic recession and credit crisis. The DJIA stood at a paltry 7,949.09, which made the lowest inaugural performance since the Dow was created in 1896. The Nasdaq and the S& P also dropped between 5.8 and 5.3 percent, on that day as well.
Bank stocks were hit as well, though those were damaged prior to his inauguration. It is safe to say that Obama took office with a bit of a problem on his hands. The American people were steel reeling from the economic downturn and were not exactly confident that their new president would be able to sort it all out.
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Retrospective: Odds Of Trump Being Reelected In 2020
Donald Trumps reelection odds were favorable until April when it became clear that his responses to Black Lives Matter protests and the Coronavirus were not going over well with a majority of bettors.
At that time, Joe Biden took the lead in the 2020 Presidential election odds and remained the favorite through his win in November.
The Stock Markets Decline This Year Has Been Painful And It Remains Difficult To Predict What Is In Store For The Future
- Grim Outlook: The stock market is on track for its worst first six months of the year since at least 1970. And thats only part of the horror story for investors and companies this year.
- Advice for Investors: Bear markets and recessions are far more common than many people realize. Being prepared can minimize hardship and even offer investing opportunities, our columnist says.
- Crypto Meltdown: Amid a dire period for digital currencies, crypto companies are laying off staff and freezing withdrawals, raising questions about the health of the ecosystem.
For those too young to remember the awful day of Nov. 22, 1963, Johnson, the vice president, was sworn in as president that afternoon after President John F. Kennedy was assassinated in Dallas. Measuring stock market performance from the end of the day they were all sworn into office allows us to include Johnson as well as Theodore Roosevelt, who became president on Sept. 14, 1901, after President William McKinley died of gunshot wounds.
The Republican Party has long claimed that it is the party of business, and that Republican rule is better for stocks. But the historical record demonstrates that the market has generally performed better under Democratic presidents since the start of the 20th century.
Over all, the market under President Biden ranks third for all presidents during a comparable time in office since 1901, according to a tally through Thursday by Paul Hickey, co-founder of Bespoke Investment Group.
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Donald Trump Political Prop Bets
We have a page that specifically covers bets that lie outside the standard betting lines for candidates, including current Donald Trump political prop bets.
You will find prop bets for Presidential debates, which party will win, odds Trump will be impeached , and even which nicknames Donald Trump will call his various Democrat opponents via Twitter .
Mini Mike Bloomberg is one of his latest masterpieces, though Andrew Coma is perhaps his most biting of the last few years.
Donald Trump Coronavirus Update
The coronavirus scare has had more of an impact on Donald Trumps re-election odds than all of his scandals to date. This is attributable not to any action on the Presidents part, but is indicative of the old adage that Its the economy, stupid. Indeed, COVID-19 rocked the stock market, one of Trumps core strengths heading into November, and Trump lost the election. America is very nearly in a real recession right now, even under the Biden administration.
To put the virus impact into perspective, a few days before Trump declared a national emergency over the Wuhan coronavirus, he was sitting at -5000 to win the GOP primary, but he immediately dropped to -3000. Meanwhile, the odds of Trump winning the general election were at -140. Those odds fell to +100 or worse following the early days of the American lockdown.
Still, Trump had proved capable of weathering all storms, and many bettors thought he would do so again. As with the stock market, buy the dip! To read further into how the Coronavirus affected Trumps odds in 2020, see our Coronavirus Election Odds Impact page.
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What Was The Dow Jones Average When Obama Left Office
Barack Obama faced eight difficult years in office but he accomplished much during his tenure as president. By the time he left office, he had made good on his promise to improve the U.S. economy. The DJIA had risen to 19,732 over the course of his term. Thats roughly a 150 percent increase in eight years.
Uncertainty still loomed, however. Donald Trumps unexpected victory over Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton was a surprise to many Americans. Trump swore he would do better for the economy, and the American people, than his predecessor.
How Has The Dow Performed Under Trumps Presidency
Trump has bragged about the records set by the Dow Jones many times. He had even said markets would crash if he were not re-elected. However, the Dow Jones surged in November 2020 after Joe Biden emerged as the presumptive president-elect.
However, that does not mean U.S. stock markets didn’t fare well in Trumps presidency. The Dow Jones has gained over 50 percent in Trumps tenure despite the COVID-19 pandemic taking a toll on U.S. economic activity.
Dow Jones Industrial rose almost 12% in Nov, its best month since Jan1987, as data on coronavirus vaccines buoyed bets on an economic recovery.
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How The Markets Are Performing
Starting Value: 19,827.25High Point: 29,398551.42 on Feb. 12, 2020Low Point: 18,591.93 on Mar. 23, 2020Performance While in Office: 43.37% increase as of Oct. 8, 2020
The Dow performed remarkably well during most of Trumps presidency. Even after markets were rocked by the coronavirus, high-flying tech stocks have managed to lift markets back to the point where theyre setting records. While many market watchers are still waiting on the other shoe to drop and the reality of the pandemic to settle in with investors, for the time being, the stock market is doing just fine. If your fortunes are connected to the Dow, that likely means you have escaped a significant amount of the economic pain of the pandemic.
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