Who Has The Best Chance To Beat Trump In 2020
Of the 23 Democrats seeking the partys nomination, only one will face incumbent Republican President Donald Trump on Tuesday, November 3 during the 2020 US presidential election.
So, this begs the question: Who has the best chance of beating Trump in 2020?
To answer this, well examine how the betting odds for each of the Democratic candidates have changed since 2019 began and whether their chances have gone up or down over that time.
Trumps Fixation On The Past Puts His Political Future In Limbo
But some Trump allies believe he may ultimately opt against a run, either for health reasons or, if Bidens poll numbers rebound, because he doesnt want to risk a second loss, even though he has yet to acknowledge the first defeat.
So far, a slew of prominent Republicans have begun making overt moves to run in 2024. Whether they will abandon their own White House dreams if the former president were to run again is another matter entirely.
Former Vice President Mike Pence, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Sens. Tom Cotton and Ted Cruz are among those who made appearances in early voting states, and some have started securing top political consultants. Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley has hinted shed mount a bid but wouldnt run against Trump if he decides to enter the race. Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson has suggested he may run even if Trump does. And there is Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has emerged as an heir-apparent to Trump and the populist MAGA movement.
Things may be just as uncertain on the Democratic side of the ledger. If Biden opts against seeking reelection, the field may not clear out for Vice President Kamala Harris, who has yet to find her political footing in the role. Two 2020 candidates, Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Cory Booker , each have held recent high-profile events on hot button election topics.
If Biden opts to seek a second term, a serious primary challenge would be unlikely.
Bidens Associates Say He Will Feel Compelled To Run If Trump Does If That Rematch Materializes Biden Said Recently I Would Not Be Disappointed
President Biden for most of his life has engaged in a near-quadrennial regimen of deciding whether he can, should or will run for president giving perhaps more thought, over a longer period of time, to that question than anyone in American history.
Hes about to undertake a similar process in the coming months, one that will involve discussions with his wife, Jill perhaps in quiet moments during their upcoming vacation in Rehoboth Beach, Del. along with considerations of how a run would affect his family, including potential congressional investigations of his son.
But as the president weighs his options, according to those close to him, one person looms largest over his decision: the man hes often tried to ignore, the one whose legacy hes worked to erase, the one hes simply called the former guy.
Biden was motivated to run for office in large part because he saw himself as best positioned to defeat President Donald Trump. He still considers knocking Trump out of the White House one of his major contributions to Americas welfare. And with Trump looming as the potential Republican nominee hes eyeing a September announcement Biden maintains that he is still best positioned to beat him.
Im not predicting, Biden recently told an Israeli TV interviewer, when asked about a Trump-Biden rematch. But I would not be disappointed.
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Hear Liz Cheney’s Plan If Trump Wins The Gop Nomination
There’s one tiny sliver of hope for Joe Biden in a devastating new poll that flags rising concerns over the President’s age and performance and shows even most Democrats want another candidate in 2024. He could still beat Donald Trump.
It Can Be Done But Democrats Need To Start Employing A Smarter Strategy And Fast
President Trump master of turning subtext into text has made it official: He’s running for president again in 2020. Trump announced earlier this week that he’s hired his campaign manager a full 980 days before Election Day 2020.
Serious activists shouldn’t let their attention get too far ahead of this year’s midterm elections. Congress is a co-equal branch of government, after all. But with Trump already embarking on his re-election bid, it’s not too early for his opponents to begin strategizing for the next presidential election too, even though it won’t take place for another 32 months.
What should these Democrats do to dethrone the leader they loathe? Here’s a five-step plan for doing in 2020 what they couldn’t do in 2016: Defeat Donald Trump.
1. Realize that Trump is vulnerable
During the 2016 election, Trump appeared to be entirely scandal- and gaffe-proof. Incidents that would have spelled political death for any other candidate criticizing Gold Star families, getting caught on Access Hollywood musing about his power to treat women like objects for his pleasure only seemed to strengthen his standing with supporters. “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose voters,” he said, not without some truth.
2. Take nothing for granted and expand the map
It’s difficult to win elections you don’t contest. Democrats shouldn’t assume that any state is reliably and certainly theirs.
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Republican Voters On Their Preferred Candidate For President
If the Republican 2024 presidential primary were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:
Asked of 350 respondents who said they planned to vote in the 2024 Republican primary in a New York Times/Siena College poll from July 5-7, 2022. Respondents who answered someone else or did not offer a response are not shown.
The greatest threat to usurp Mr. Trump within the party is Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, who was the second choice with 25 percent and the only other contender with double-digit support. Among primary voters, Mr. DeSantis was the top choice of younger Republicans, those with a college degree and those who said they voted for President Biden in 2020.
While about one-fourth of Republicans said they didnt know enough to have an opinion about Mr. DeSantis, he was well-liked by those who did. Among those who voted for Mr. Trump in 2020, 44 percent said they had a very favorable opinion of Mr. DeSantis similar to the 46 percent who said the same about Mr. Trump.
Should Mr. DeSantis and Mr. Trump face off in a primary, the poll suggested that support from Fox News could prove crucial: Mr. Trump held a 62 percent to 26 percent advantage over Mr. DeSantis among Fox News viewers, while the gap between the two Floridians was 16 points closer among Republicans who mainly receive their news from another source.
Mr. Trumps troubles inside his party leave him hamstrung in a matchup against an unusually vulnerable incumbent.
Seth Moulton Tim Ryan Christopher Murphy
Millennials are expected to surpass baby boomers as the largest generation of eligible voters in 2020. So it would only make sense for a few politicians who might still get carded to run themselves.
Seth Moulton, a Massachusetts congressman, is a charismatic, intelligent Iraq war veteran who isnt afraid to call out party elders like Nancy Pelosi. Hes only 38, and its almost certainly too soon for him to have much of a chance at winning the nomination in 2020, but it doesnt hurt to put his name into the 2020 veepstakes.
At 44, Representative Tim Ryan of Ohio doesnt make the cut of being a millennial himself, but hes fashioned himself as a fresh face on Capitol Hill and he thinks he has an economics-focused message for members of that generation, especially those who live in working-class cities like his hometown near Youngstown.
Christopher Murphy, a 44-year-old Connecticut senator, is casting his message at a different segment of millennials those who live on Twitter, where he offers running political commentary, or listen to podcasts like Pod Save America, where hes made several appearances. His and Mr. Ryans campaign slogans write themselves: Youre Only as Old as You Feel.
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John Hickenlooper Steve Bullock
Some Democrats will be tempted to look beyond the Beltway for a savior. Thus the appeal of a certain type of pragmatic governor.
John Hickenlooper, in his second term as Colorado governor, has built a solid economic record there while also instituting tough gun control laws and overseeing the smooth introduction of legalized marijuana. Hes also evinced a willingness for bipartisanship that has served him well in purple Colorado. Hes an offbeat enough character that its possible to see him catching fire.
Steve Bullock is a second-term governor in deep-red Montana, and hed cast himself as someone whod help Democrats broaden their electoral map beyond the coasts. Its not a bad sales pitch. But Mr. Bullock isnt much of a salesman. One joke making the rounds about him goes that if you close your eyes while hes speaking, you hear Evan Bayh.
Yes Of Course Donald Trump Can Win In 2024
When I meet people and they find out I am a political reporter, they inevitably and immediately ask some version of this question: Is he going to run again? And can he win?
The he there just in case youve spent the last six years on another planet is Donald Trump.
And the answers to those questions are probably yes and definitely. As in, yes, Trump is probably going to run for president again in 2024. And, yes, he would have a very real chance of winning.
Lets take the second half of that question first. A new Wall Street Journal poll shows Trump and President Joe Biden each at 45% among registered voters in a hypothetical 2024 matchup, results that are largely unchanged since the last time WSJ asked the question in November.
The simple fact is that if the 2020 presidential race was re-run today, it would effectively be a pure toss up.
Which, if you think about it, makes sense. While Biden took more than 300 electoral votes, his margins in a series of swing states like Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania were decidedly narrow. And had those states gone for Trump, he would have almost certainly been reelected.
Now, that is putting the cart before the horse. So, lets return to the first question: Will Trump run?
If you believe him, then yes.
But, its true.
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How Trump And Biden Supporters Would React To Victory And Defeat
When asked about their reactions to the outcome of the November 2020 election, voters say they would have more positive reactions to Biden winning the election than to Trump being reelected president. And voters reactions to Trumps possible reelection are more intense both positively and negatively than to a Biden victory.
About half of registered voters say they would be excited or relieved if Biden was elected president, while 47% say they would be disappointed or angry.
Among voters who say they would react positively to a Biden victory, far more would be relieved than excited . Among those who expect to react negatively, more say they would be disappointed than angry .
More voters say they would react to a Trump victory with negative than positive emotions. Nearly twice as many voters say they would be angry if Trump wins reelection than if Biden is elected president .
Yet somewhat more voters also say they would be excited by a Trump victory than a Biden victory.
Although both Trump and Biden supporters express positive reactions to their own candidate winning the November election, Trump supporters are about twice as likely to say to say they would be excited if their candidate won the 2020 election than Biden supporters are of their own candidate.
Biden Has The Best Shot At Carrying The Senate
Any Democrat who could beat Trump would only have a shot at a transformative presidency if he or she also took the Senate. Right now, it looks bleak for Democrats.
McConnell controls the Senate by three votes . And in 2020, there is no Republican running in a state that Clinton carried by 5 points or more. So while Democrats defend seats in 12 states where theyre up for reelection, a few of them tough races, theyll also have to flip seats in at least three competitive races to take back control of Congress.
Most Democrats believe their best bets for flips are in Colorado, Arizona, Georgia, and Maine. Biden has earned about a dozen endorsements across these states, including from Napolitano, the only Democrat to be elected governor in the state since 1982.
Vulnerable Democrats defending seats include Sen. Gary Peters in Michigan, a state where Biden has consistently polled above Trump by a higher margin than any other candidate. Hes earned some half a dozen endorsements from sitting lawmakers there, too.
Similarly, hes picked up strong support in Alabama.
Even if you look at an example like the state of Alabama where theres a clear dichotomy between urban-exurban and rural, hes uniquely positioned not to move just urban voters, said Democratic Birmingham Mayor Randall Woodfin, who has endorsed Biden. When you think about all parts of the state, hes actually able to excite and motivate those same Alabamians who may be white or rural.
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Ivanka Trump Fusses Over Dress In Jan 6 Documentary Teaser
Asked about Morris book, Trump told The Post, Ive known Dick Morris for a longtime and his father was a great real estate lawyer who represented me very well. Dick is a very talented person, and I would ask for his advice and opinions on matters of politics. Its what he loves and does best, and hes very good at it.
On another issue important to voters, Morris said Trump and the Republicans have a strong hand to play as the law-and-order party and paint Biden and the Democrats as soft on crime during the fall midterms and in 2024.
He said the left wing of the Democratic Partys campaign to defund the police is a gift to Trump and the GOP.
The crime issue is particularly toxic for the Democrats, because it is obvious to voters that it was not nearly as bad a problem before Biden was elected. Back in 2019, and before, crime had fallen out of the headlines and faded in popular consciousness. But after Bidens election, the movement to defund the police, and the vilification of dedicated, responsible, fair, and hardworking police officers has set the crime rate soaring. So who is to blame? Figure it out!, Morris said.
The Left wants to cut the number of uniformed police and replace them with social workers and psychologists to stem violence and escalation. So the next time you worry that a criminal is trying to break into your home, call 911 and wait for a social worker to arrive, he said.
The Election Deniers Dominating The Primaries In Colorado
An additional 48 nominees have expressed doubts about the election despite the multitude of evidence that it was legitimate. This includes people like Nevada gubernatorial nominee Joe Lombardo and Arkansas gubernatorial nominee Sarah Huckabee Sanders, who have both said some fraud took place but theyre not sure how much Oregon 5th District nominee Lori Chavez-DeRemer, who did not take a direct stance but used dog-whistle language that undermined faith in the election and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, who gave credence to Trumps false claims by proposing an election integrity commission.
Heres a snapshot of the whole Republican primary field so far:
In total, almost half of the GOPs nominees for these offices have at least dabbled in false election claims. However, a lot of that is simply because the candidate pool overall was sympathetic to these claims, rather than primary voters going out of their way to elect election deniers. Thirty percent of all Republican candidates for those offices explicitly denied the elections legitimacy, and another 16 percent questioned it. To be sure, that leaves a lot of Republican candidates who didnt fall into this camp, but it is still notable that such a large share of political hopefuls from one of our two main parties is not ready to accept the result of a fair democratic election.
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But Denying The Election Isnt A Guaranteed Win
Being a candidate who claims the 2020 election was stolen is a bit like being endorsed by Trump it can help in the right race, but its not a guaranteed winning strategy. Often, other electoral factors override the appeal an election-denying candidate might have especially when thats all they really have to offer voters.
For instance, in the 91 contests in which at least one candidate entertains stolen election conspiracy theories and at least one candidate has accepted Biden as president, Republican voters opted for the pro-democracy candidate 49 times out of 91 . The election-denying candidate won just 33 times .4 In fact, candidates who accepted the election either fully or while still raising questions about fraud represent just 14 percent of total Republican primary candidates . Yet, these two groups were overrepresented in the primary winners: 22 percent of nominees accepted the 2020 results.