A Democrat Who Can Beat Trump
Why Amy Klobuchar still has a chance.
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If youre like a lot of Democrats, you worry that Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are too liberal or at least that other voters think so. Youre also not buying the Pete Buttigieg hype. And you get nervous every time Joe Biden opens his mouth.
So where are you supposed to find a comfortably electable, qualified candidate who wont turn 80 while in office?
Senator Amy Klobuchar has become an answer to that question in the final month before voting begins. She has outlasted more than a dozen other candidates and has two big strengths: A savvy understanding of how to campaign against President Trump and a track record of winning the sorts of swing voters Democrats will likely need this year.
Klobuchar, to be sure, is not a finished product as a presidential candidate. Too often, she sounds like a senator speaking in legislative to-do lists rather than a future president who can inspire voters. That tendency along with too much needling of other candidates, instead of focusing on her own message was evident in the most recent debate.
In that way, she reminds me of another Midwestern senator who once seemed too ordinary to be president: Harry Truman. In the summer of 1944, an even more perilous time for global democracy than now, Democratic Party grandees chose Truman as vice president with the belief that he would soon be president, given Franklin Roosevelts declining health.
How Huge Of A Turnout Surge Does Sanders Need To Be As Electable As A Moderate
The case that Bernie Sanders is just as electable as the more moderate candidates thus appears to rest on a leap of faith: that youth voter turnout would surge in the general election by double digits if and only if Bernie Sanders is nominated, compensating for the voters his nomination pushes to Trump among the rest of the electorate.
There are reasons to doubt a Sanders-driven youth turnout surge of this size would materialize. First, people who promise in surveys they will vote often dont, meaning the turnout estimates that Sanderss electability case rests upon are probably extremely inaccurate. Second, such a turnout surge is large in comparison to other effects on turnout. For example, Sanders would need to stimulate a youth turnout boost much larger than the turnout boost Barack Obamas presence on the ballot stimulated among black voters in 2008.
Third, Sanderss electability case requires this 11 percentage point turnout increase among young voters in 2020 to occur on top of any turnout increase that would otherwise occur if another Democrat were nominated.
And this enormous 11 percentage point turnout boost is only enough to make Sanders as electable as the more moderate candidates, given the other votes he loses to Trump. For him to be the most electable Democratic candidate based on his ability to inspire youth turnout, Sanderss nomination would need to increase youth turnout by even more.
How Joe Biden Won Michigan
Biden also bested Sanders among union voters in both Michigan and Missouri, two states where union-affiliated voters make up a significant part of the electorate.
Across Michigan, Washington and Missouri, 42 percent of Democratic voters said they would be satisfied if either Biden or Sanders won the nomination. But a significant proportion said they would be happy only if one candidate won the nomination 30 percent said they’d be satisfied only if Biden wins, while 20 percent said the same about Sanders.
In Michigan, 50 percent of voters said they’d trust Biden the most of the Democratic field to handle a major crisis, with 31 percent choosing Sanders. Biden had a double-digit edge over Sanders on the same question among Democratic voters in Washington and Missouri, as well.
Tuesday night’s exit polls show other interesting preferences of Democratic primary voters.
In Washington, 81 percent said they are concerned about the coronavirus outbreak, which has hit the state harder than most others. Older voters were more likely to say they were very concerned than younger voters 45 percent of voters ages 45 or older said they’re very concerned about the virus, compared to 19 percent of those younger than 45.
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Lincoln Chafeewho Is He
The failson scion of a Rhode Island Republican family, Chafee served in the Senate as a Republican as governor, as an independent and then a Democrat and then ran for president as a Democrat in 2016.
Why did he want to run?
Who wanted him to run?
Could he have won the nomination? Given that he dropped his bid even without any serious rivals in the race, apparently not.
Polls Point To Clear Top Tier
Joe Biden was the accepted frontrunner in this race throughout 2019. After serving as Barack Obama’s vice-president for eight years, he had strong name recognition and held a clear lead in national polls.
His numbers dipped at the start of 2020 though and Bernie Sanders overtook him in the RealClearPolitics national average after a strong showing in the Iowa caucuses. Biden, however, won by a big margin in South Carolina, which helped boost his poll numbers before he then swept the South on Super Tuesday.
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Whos Best To Beat Trump 7 Answers When 7 Democrats Debate
Making a case for the nomination, onstage together for one last time in 2019.
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WASHINGTON Senator Elizabeth Warren argued that Democrats would defeat President Trump if they draw the sharpest distinction with what she called the administrations corruption and suggested that Mayor Pete Buttigiegs high-dollar fund-raising would undermine their ability to do that. Mr. Buttigieg said his party could scarcely afford to hew to such purity tests in a race against Mr. Trump.
And Senator Amy Klobuchar was even less subtle, repeatedly citing her heartland roots to argue that Democrats could win only if they put a Midwesterner like her at the top of the ticket, while recalling that Mr. Buttigieg had been soundly defeated in his one statewide race in Indiana.
In Washington, those who make politics a vocation or an avocation are consumed with this weeks impeachment of Mr. Trump, the branding of a scarlet I upon his tenure. But on the other side of the country, on the Democratic debate stage in Los Angeles, the candidates circled around a different vowel, and a different word the E word.
As in: electability.
Or, rather, which of the candidates running can eject Mr. Trump from the White House next year, now that its clear Republican senators wont offer the votes to convict him.
Trump Has Been Running And Losing Against Biden For Months
Ultimately, the 2020 primary issue Democrats care about most is who can stand up to Trump and beat him. Biden is in a unique position. Hes faced almost a year of attacks by Trump and it hasnt hurt him.
In the fall, the American public learned that Trump had enlisted his personal attorney Rudy Giuliani to gin up dirt on Bidens son Hunter Biden by leaning on the government of Ukraine. While these revelations ultimately ended in the presidents impeachment, they also led to months and months of Trump attacking Joe Biden.
Amid all this, Bidens fundraising skyrocketed, and he paid no penalty in the polls. Biden remains up over Trump in head-to-head polling in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
Why are you so obsessed with me, Mr. President?
Bidens campaign made an ad about Trumps attacks, which Biden tweeted with a joke, Why are you so obsessed with me? Sometimes a joke is funny because it gets at the truth.
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In Contrast They Think Bernie Sanders Would Boost The Presidents Chance Of Re
NOTHING IS MORE important to Americas Democrats than kicking Donald Trump out of the White House. In a poll published on February 25th, 65% of Democratic voters told YouGov that nominating a candidate who can beat the president in November is more important than selecting one who shares their positions on most issues. Yet there is much confusion over who is best able to evict Mr Trump.
The Democratic National Convention Starts Monday Here’s What You Need To Know
Sanders and Buttigieg again virtually tied in New Hampshire’s primary on Feb. 11. Biden came in fifth, the choice of only one out of every 12 voters.
As Sanders and Buttigieg dueled for delegates, it was Sanders who got the biggest boost in the polls. His rise coincided with his big win in the Feb. 22 Nevada caucuses, where the avowed democratic socialist showed strong appeal among Hispanic voters and got nearly half the votes overall. Media reports were routinely referring to him as the front-runner.
But Biden stayed alive in Nevada, finishing second with 20%. It was enough to carry him to South Carolina and redemption.
Clyburn’s crucial contribution
Joe Biden celebrates his win in the South Carolina primary on Feb. 29, 2020. An endorsement from Rep. James Clyburn proved pivotal.hide caption
Joe Biden celebrates his win in the South Carolina primary on Feb. 29, 2020. An endorsement from Rep. James Clyburn proved pivotal.
South Carolina’s first-in-the-South primary matters in the Democratic contest because it is the first event where African American voters with whom Biden had residual appeal as Obama’s vice president carry outsize influence. As attention turned to the Palmetto State, its senior officeholder, James Clyburn, the highest ranking Black member of Congress as the House majority whip, announced his endorsement of Biden.
The longer comeback
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Last edited Tue Aug 3, 2021, 12:57 AM – Edit history
Â and critique your framing. As it happens, despite your and the LATÂs interest in the subject, Kamala Harris is not actually running for President. In addition the Âregistered votersÂ poll cited does not discriminate between Dems and GOP, Right or Left, Independent and so forth. There is a chunk of voters who would not vote for a Black/Mixed-Race/Female/Democrat if she were the last candidate on the face of the Earth. Around here we call them MAGAts. They also will not vote for a White Male Democrat Â but at least they wonÂt threaten to rape and murder him. The rest of the voters are Democrats and persuadable Independents. We can work with them when the time comes.As for her position as VP, you make it sound like sheÂs a drag on the ticket. Yet Joe Biden won handily Â in part because of her positive pull on the Democratic base. But I note your concern.
Joe Biden’s Long And Rocky Road To The Democratic Nomination
Joe Biden addresses donors during a virtual fundraising event at the Hotel DuPont in Wilmington, Del., on Aug. 12. Biden will accept his party’s nomination at this week’s Democratic National Convention.hide caption
Joe Biden addresses donors during a virtual fundraising event at the Hotel DuPont in Wilmington, Del., on Aug. 12. Biden will accept his party’s nomination at this week’s Democratic National Convention.
When former Vice President Joseph Biden Jr. becomes the Democratic Party’s official nominee for president on Thursday, he will complete two historic and improbable comebacks.
Earlier this year, Biden rose from roadkill status in early February voting to effectively claim the nomination by the end of March.
But 2020 was far from the first time Biden bid for the White House. His nomination realizes the dream of a recurrent campaign first launched more than three decades ago in another political era, in another century. No other major party nominee has reached this plateau so many years after their first formal candidacy.
Most Americans know Biden as the No. 2 who served eight years under Barack Obama. They may know that Biden previously had been a high-profile, six-term senator from Delaware, chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee and then the Foreign Relations Committee.
A rough start to 2020
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Joseph R Biden Jr Former Vice President
Mr. Bidens argument about being the most electable candidate is increasingly not the subtext of his campaign its the text.
But it wasnt until the closing portion of the debate that he said Democrats had to be mindful of who can win and bring some coattails to ensure the party reclaims the Senate.
Who has the best chance, most likely chance, of defeating Donald Trump, who is the one most likely to do that? he asked, before continuing: Who can help elect Democrats to the United States Senate in states like North Carolina and Georgia and Arizona and other states?
For most of the night Thursday, however, he avoided stating why hed be the Democrat most likely to win against Mr. Trump, instead trumpeting his knowledge of foreign affairs and boasting that hes running on his near half-century in politics. With my experience comes judgment and a little bit of wisdom, Mr. Biden said.
Mr. Biden had one of his better debate performances Thursday, in part because he was able to make a succinct pitch for his viability and even more because he watched two of his most daunting rivals in Iowa, Mr. Buttigieg and Ms. Warren, tangle with each other.
The Reason Sanders Appears Equally Electable
These Bernie or bust voters that come off the sidelines for Sanders in our survey are almost entirely limited to one group: Democrats and independents under age 35. These voters are about 11 percentage points more likely to say they would vote for Democrats if Sanders is nominated and almost all of them say they would not vote at all or vote third party if hes not on the ballot.
However, the Bernie or bust phenomenon appears almost entirely limited to left-leaning young people, who are usually a small share of the overall electorate. This stands in contrast to many theories of Sanderss electoral appeal: For example, whites without a college degree a demographic some speculate Sanders could win over are actually more likely to say they will vote for Trump against Sanders than against the other Democrats. The same is true of the rest of the electorate, except left-leaning young people.
This finding in our data mirrors many other surveys: Morning Consult finds dramatic increases in young Americans stated turnout intentions when asked how they would vote in matchups between Sanders and Trump.
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