How The Model Works
To estimate Trumps chances of being re-elected in 2020, my model takes Trumps current approval ratings and looks for approval ratings that roughly match these numbers within a comparable window of time in the historical data for each of the previous 11 administrations. Ive excluded Kennedy because he was assassinated prior to re-election, and Roosevelt because, as mentioned above, Gallup did not poll for job approval in 1944 due to World War II.
If the model finds a set of poll numbers that roughly match the latest numbers for Trump, it next computes the probability of re-election based on a determination as to whether Trumps latest approval numbers seem more characteristic of a president who later went on to be re-elected or whether they seem more characteristic of one who later went on not to be re-elected.
For instance, say the model is looking to compute the probability of Trump being re-elected as of October 20, 2017, which was 1,110 days prior to Election Day on November 3, 2020. To do this, it will scour the approval ratings for each of the previous 11 administrations and look for any past presidents with similar approval ratings at around 1,110 days prior to Election Day.
Since the model looks to calculate the probability that Trump will be re-elected given a particular range of job approval numbers, the final calculation is based on four pieces of information:
Donald Trump Presidential Election Odds
Will we see the resurgence of a trump type candidate in 2024? Will it be a version of Trump vs. Biden 2024 Presidential election? So, over the next few years, expect to see the odds changing frequently, but we do believe that the odds will remain fairly split between the two until November 2024.
Currently, Donald Trumps betting odds have him as the third favorite candidate to win the 2024 election, but those seem to be falling by the day with how the coronavirus handling has been going. ÃWhile this is impossible, we do remain confident the Trump era isnt over yet.
Other Trump specials pertaining to the election are to win or lose the popular vote and electoral college.
Who Will Be The Next President
Predicting who will be the next President is obviously a very hard task this far away from the actual election. However, the betting market is normally a good indicator of the current voting trends.
Donald Trump has dominated the online betting for the 2024 election this month, hes accounted for 38% of all bets placed in the 2024 election odds market.
Ron DeSantis has been the second most popular bet in the market, accounting for 8.5% of all bets placed in the odds market during May.
Kamala Harris has accounted for 7.7% of bets in this time period, Joe Biden 7.1% Candace Owens 4.2% and Dwyane Johnson 4.1%.
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Trump Ally Wins Gop Primary For Arizona Governor
Donald Trump is definitely running for president again in 2024 and will easily win the Republican nomination and retake the White House, his self-proclaimed secret adviser claims in a provocative new book.
Dick Morris, a veteran political consultant who advised Bill Clinton for years, says he served as an unpaid, back-channel adviser to Trump in 2020. His father, Eugene Morris, was the longtime real estate lawyer for Trumps dad, Fred, and then son Donald. So they have a longtime connection.
In his new book The Return: Trumps 2024 Comeback , Morris claims that voters who have buyers remorse over President Biden and the Democrats historic inflation and gas prices and fears of a recession, among other things will welcome Trump back to the Oval Office because of his superior policies.
Will Trump Run? Will Trump Win? Yes and yes! I have spoken with the former president dozens of times since he left office, and our conversations were always either about how he was cheated in 2020, or how he would get back in in 2024, Morris writes.
He has never, for a moment, taken his eye off the ball getting back in the White House! But can he win? Not only can he win, he will win, and nobody else can. As surely as he was our 45th president, he will be our 47th as well!
President Trumps Views On Gambling
Trump had very public financial ties to the late Sheldon Adelson, a Las Vegas casino mogul who was known to contribute to the Republican party and anti-gambling lawmakers. In fact, Trump and his family had met with Adelsons family in Las Vegas multiple times for dinner.
While Adelson was known to push an anti-gambling expansion agenda to prevent any cannibalization in his market of land-based venues, Trump has a history of favoring casinos, as he was a former casino owner and he is friends with many other owners in the industry.
However, Trump was tough on any gamblers working in his cabinet, as his personal assistant John McEntee was denied permanent security clearance from the White House due to problems related to online gambling and the mishandling of his taxes, said one Senior Administrator. Overall, we view Trump to be in favor of expanded gambling, at least more so than the GOP generally is.
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Will Trump Run Again
Despite his defeat last fall, many believe Trump still holds the keys to the future of the GOP. The former president has retained an extremely loyal base of supporters, and his popularity among Republicans does not seem to have been damaged by his checkered political past.
Trump was impeached twice during his first and only term in the White House, and his four-year stint was marred by a seemingly endless array of scandals. Trump was rather fortunate to escape his first three years in office without a legitimate disaster, but that changed last year when the pandemic upended everything.
Trumps disastrous response to the pandemic may have ultimately cost him his chance at re-election. The economy, which had been Trumps primary selling point beforehand, subsequently went into the tank. His approval rating among non-GOP voters was questionable to begin with. The pandemic was likely the final nail in his coffin.
Trump Iowa rally in the works:
However, in spite of it all, Trump may be able to win his partys nomination again in 2024 if he wants to. While some within the party may have decided to move on, there does not seem to be a very obvious heir to his throne. Trump is still the single most popular Republican in the country.
Some Republicans Fear An Announcement Will Undercut Them At A Time When They Have A Strong Chance Of Retaking The House And Senate
For nearly a year, a kitchen cabinet of Donald Trump confidants has told the former president not to announce his 2024 comeback candidacy before the midterms, arguing that he could be a drag on 2022 candidates and would be blamed if Republicans underperformed.
But Trump has continued to regularly push for an early announcement in private meetings, as potential 2024 rivals become more aggressive amid signs of weakening support among his base. Now an increasing number of allies are urging him to follow his instincts as a way to shore up his standing in the party and drive turnout to help the GOP take over the House and Senate next year.
The former president is now eyeing a September announcement, according to two Trump advisers, who like some others interviewed for this article spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe private conversations. One confidant put the odds at 70-30 he announces before the midterms. And others said he may still decide to announce sooner than September.
Trump has begun talking with advisers about who should run a campaign, and his team has instructed others to have an online apparatus ready for a campaign should he announce soon, two people familiar with the matter said. He also has begun meeting with top donors to talk about the 2024 race, one of these people said, while on trips to various places across the country.
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Morris told The Post Tuesday the January 6th commission hearings will backfire massively.
There is a fiddling-while-Rome-burns quality to the hearings. Much ado and much distraction about nothing. The more attention the issue draws, the more it becomes apparent that the Democrats are not talking about the concerns that bedevil the average person high prices and inflation at the pump, he said.
Morris likened the Democrats obsession with Trump and the Jan. 6 protests to Republicans in Congress moving to impeach President Bill Clinton over the Monica Lewinsky sex scandal, which hurt the GOP in the 1998 midterm elections because voters thought they made a mountain out of a molehill.
The book also was written before the Supreme Court rulings that tossed out restrictions on concealed guns, overturned the federal right to abortion and scrapped executive power to regulate greenhouse gas emissions on power plants without congressional approval, which could galvanize Democrats to go to the polls.
I do not think any of this terms Supreme Court rulings will have an adverse effect on Trumps chances or those of the Republicans in 22 or 24, he said.
The abortion decision has the most potential impact but, since state laws remain in force, the impact is largely theoretical and when people see how it works out theyll see that very little has really changed.
How About Kamala Harris For President In 2024
If you thought poor old Biden was having a hard time, spare a thought for Harris.
Labeled by some as the worst vice president in American history, Harris approval rating plummeted to 32% recently. That makes the VP the most unpopular of all time.
Harris is experiencing a mass exodus of staff, as many of her aides flee what they see as a sinking ship. From claims of a toxic workplace to a complete loss of support, Harris is nowhere near the position many of us thought she would be at this point.
The odds for Kamala Harris to win the 2024 presidential election are +800. Which is very generous, with all things considered? It would be a historic day for the United States if a female president was elected to office and one that many of us would like to see. But Harris? Im not so sure.
Voters dont just want a female president for the sake of having one, as evidenced by Hillary Clintons implosion in 2016. Any president, regardless of their sex or background, should be there on merit. Harris, unfortunately, has shown no aptitude in her current role and, therefore, is highly unlikely to be the leader this country needs.
You can bet on a female president of the United States not named Kamala Harris. There are other candidates, which you can read more about, below. Just keep in mind that the following piece was published in October.
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Can You Bet In The Us
You cannot legally bet on US elections using traditional sportsbooks but PredictIt allows users to trade shares much like the stock market on the outcomes of elections and events.
PredictIt has dozens of markets in which you can try and predict the outcome of a political race or event. The way it works is that you buy shares for or against an event taking place. You can then trade your shares, with the goal of buying your shares low and then selling them high.
One example of a PredictIt market is Will Donald Trump file to run for President before the end of 2022?
On June 25, the closing price on Yes for Trump to file to run for President before the end of 2022 was 38 cents. On June 27 it was 41 cents and on July 1 it was at 37 cents.
Its up to you to decide whether to cash in or hang on until the market closes.
If you , you will get $50 free when you deposit $50.
Michelle Obama 2024 Election Odds
Michelle Obama would be an incredibly popular choice is she ran in the 2024 election, and it wouldnt take much to make her odds shift.
Michelle Obamas 2024 election odds currently sit at 50/1, which implies theres a 2% chance that should could win the election.
Michelle Obamas 2024 election odds are exactly the same as Chicago Bears winning the Super Bowl.
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Trump Raid: What The Fbi Seized From Mar
The FBI raid of Donald Trumps Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida will absolutely rally support for the former presidents long-expected 2024 bid, political pundits and Trumps avid supporters alike insisted Tuesday.
Both Republicans and Democrats said that Mondays search had the potential to make Trump a martyr and let the 45th president portray himself as a victim of the corrupt government establishment.
The White House is claiming to have not had advance notice the FBI were going to raid the home of the preceding President of the United States?! Please. This is so sure to boost Trump and his chances, you wonder if its intentional, Gregg Keller, a Missouri-based GOP strategist, told The Post.
Chuck Flint, a former chief of staff to Sen. Marsha Blackburn predicted the raid reportedly part of a probe into whether Trump illegally took classified records from the White House would unite the Republican Party behind Trump because it solidifies a pattern of government agencies being used by the Left to target political opponents.
Whether its the IRS auditing conservative organizations or DOJ relying on a Democrat research dossier as a pretext to launch an investigation of Trump in 2016, these actions stoke GOP resentment, Flint told The Post.
The raid at Mar-a-Lago will energize Republican voters who havent forgotten Hillary Clinton deleting 33,000 emails and walking away with a slap on the wrist, he added.
How Does The Us Presidential Election Work
The United States uses Electoral Colleges to determine the president and vice president. The candidate with 270 Electoral College votes takes the presidency. Each state is assigned a set of votes based on the number of representatives in the House of Representatives, with two more added for the senators each state has in Congress. The candidate with the most votes for a particular state will take all of the Electoral College votes to reach that magic number of 270. But just because you win the presidency doesnt mean you won the nations popular vote.
There have been five instances when the winner hasnt had more votes by the people. While three of those instances happened during the 1800s , weve seen it happen in two of the last four presidential elections: George W. Bush in 2000 and Donald Trump in 2016 won against Al Gore and Hillary Clinton, respectively.
And before you ask, yes, global bookmakers offer bets on different party combinations for the Electoral College and popular vote.=
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How Does Lichtmans 13 Keys Model Work
The 13 keys to the White Houseis an index of true or false responses to a set of questions, based on a simple pattern recognition algorithm.
True answers favour the re-election of the incumbent, while false answers favour the challenger.
When six or more of the statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose.
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Outside Bets To Win The 2024 Presidential Election
Barring any circumstances that prevent Trump from running, he is a shoo-in to be the Republican nominee for 2024.
At this point, he has no known health problems or hindrances that would prevent him from running. So, we can safely say that he should be the candidate for the G.O.P in two years.
We cant say the same thing about Biden, while Harris looks unsuitable for the role. So, other than Clinton springing a surprise, some of the outside candidates to win the US presidential election in 2024 might be worth a look.
Obama, recently voted as the most admired woman on the planet for the third year in a row, would surely garner significant support.
At odds of +4000, she is not seen as a viable option. However, if the Democratic Party continues to sink like a stone on an iron dinghy, perhaps they will turn to the former first lady. Does it matter that Michelle Obama has no political experience at this level? No. It doesnt.
Thats not to say that she is cut out for the job. But with minimal alternatives, she could be a good outside bet to win the 2024 US presidential election.
Stranger things have happened, folks.
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Kamala Harris’ Odds Of Winning The 2024 Us Presidential Election
Harris has seen her odds tumble but she remains the Democrat favorite if Biden decides not to run again. The Smarkets exchange gives her a 16.1% chance of becoming the party nominee, lower than Biden’s 26% but higher than third-place Newson, who sits at 12.5%.
Harris is having a rocky tenure as VP and is struggling to break ground with her two biggest projects, border migration, and national voting reform. In November, her approval rating sank to a comically low 28%, the lowest of any VP in modern memory a list that includes Dick Cheney.
Harris was previously on the U.S. Senate and has also served as the Attorney General of California. At 57 years of age, Harris is entering her political prime and ran for the Democratic nomination in 2020 before dropping out to endorse Biden.
The Geek Psychologist Job Approval
My re-election model estimates the chance that Donald Trump will be elected to a second term using current and historical job approval ratings from Gallups telephone-based daily tracking poll. I obtained all Gallup polling data from the American Presidency Project.
The Gallup tracking poll is particularly useful because its been around for a long time, and theres a good amount of historical data to draw upon for the purpose of comparing Trumps current job approval numbers with the job approval numbers for previous presidents.
In fact, George Gallup was the first to conduct presidential job approval ratings in the U.S. in the late 1930s. As such, the Gallup organization possesses job approval ratings for the last 13 administrations, stretching all the way back to July 1941, during Franklin Roosevelts third consecutive term in office and before his re-election in 1944 to a fourth term. Unfortunately though, Gallups approval numbers for Roosevelt are of limited use because, due to World War II, no polling was conducted in 1944.
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