Who Could Beat Donald Trump In 2024
Analysis by Chris Cillizza, CNN Editor-at-large
Politico asked Mick Mulvaney, who served as chief of staff to then-President Donald Trump, who he believed had a chance to beat his former boss for the Republican nomination in 2024.
” DeSantis could give him a run for his money. Tim Scott can give him a run for his money. Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson could give him a run for his money. It’s a short list.”1) Ron DeSantiseven if 2) Tim Scott3) Dwayne “The Rock” JohnsonThe Point: Is it possible that Trump gets a serious primary challenge in 2024? Sure. Is it likely? Not at all.
Trump Has Been Running And Losing Against Biden For Months
Ultimately, the 2020 primary issue Democrats care about most is who can stand up to Trump and beat him. Biden is in a unique position. Hes faced almost a year of attacks by Trump and it hasnt hurt him.
In the fall, the American public learned that Trump had enlisted his personal attorney Rudy Giuliani to gin up dirt on Bidens son Hunter Biden by leaning on the government of Ukraine. While these revelations ultimately ended in the presidents impeachment, they also led to months and months of Trump attacking Joe Biden.
Amid all this, Bidens fundraising skyrocketed, and he paid no penalty in the polls. Biden remains up over Trump in head-to-head polling in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
Why are you so obsessed with me, Mr. President?
Bidens campaign made an ad about Trumps attacks, which Biden tweeted with a joke, Why are you so obsessed with me? Sometimes a joke is funny because it gets at the truth.
Biden Seen As Most Electable
As of now, 51% of Democrats believe former Vice President Joe Biden has the best chance of beating Trump. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are a distant second at 16% and 15%, respectively.
Although these three candidates were the only ones offered explicitly in the question of who has the best chance of beating Trump, respondents were free to volunteer someone else’s name. Three percent mentioned Pete Buttigieg and 2% Andrew Yang. Amy Klobuchar and Michael Bloomberg were each mentioned by 1%, and all other candidates, combined, totaled an additional 1%.
|2019 Nov 1-14|
|Based on Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents * less than 0.5%|
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There Are Some Obvious Problems With Biden
In an ideal world, the Democrats would likely want a nominee younger than Biden, who is 77.
Its also true that for a party coming off the historic election of the first African American president and that came within a razors edge of electing the first female president, theres something symbolically disappointing about retreating to another white man.
This is made worse by the fact that when he was pressed to address his problematic personal treatment of women near the launch of his campaign, Biden was perfunctory and dismissive.
Representation matters, and with Biden were not getting a real advance. But we dont live in an ideal world, and there isnt a younger and slightly more self-reflective version of Biden out there for Democrats to vote for.
Theres way too much thats both tangibly and symbolically at stake with Trumps presence in the White House for Democrats to ignore the overwhelming evidence that the politicians with something on the line in tough races think Biden is the best chance to beat him.
Liberals Shouldnt Be So Worried About Biden
A fear among liberal skeptics of Biden is that his pragmatism represents a retreat from the partys leftward momentum. Thats true in one sense. He doesnt pass progressive purity tests on issues like Medicare-for-all. On paper, his plans are less ambitious.
But hed still be the most progressive Democratic nominee in history if he won.
His plans line up closer with the center of gravity in the party, but in recent years the center has moved much further left than even during the Barack Obama years. For example, Biden isnt willing to replace the Affordable Care Act with a new, single-payer system like Warren or Sanderss Medicare-for-all. But he does want to improve on it with a major new addition, an expansive public option. Hed also cap premiums at 8.5 percent of a patients income.
These might seem small relative to the scope of Medicare-for-all, but Medicare-for-all has pretty much no chance of becoming law, and its likely to spark a damaging intraparty fight among congressional Democrats that harms the chances of passing any health care bill.
Lamb pointed out that there probably arent enough votes in the Democratic-controlled House to pass it, never mind a Republican-controlled Senate . And the key Senate Democrats who will drive health care policy if Democrats retake the gavel have already said Medicare-for-all is a nonstarter.
Woodfin agreed, echoing Lambs point that most Americans dont favor Medicare-for-all even among Democrats, the enthusiasm has .
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Other Side May Mobilize Too
Another fundamental challenge looms over a strategy built on winning through mobilization: Any candidate, like Sanders, with a persona strong enough to excite positive turnout on his side risks igniting negative turnout on the other. Many Democrats believe that the unrelenting partisan conflict of the Trump presidency ensures that their supporters will turn out in large numbers against him in November. If the party picks a polarizing nominee of its own, they fear, it will make it easier for Trump to generate massive turnout from the Republican base against the Democrat. Even if Democrats want to pursue a strategy revolving around mobilization, Teixeira argues, You can argue its possible that Sanders is the worst possible candidate to do it. Hes so polarizing. Hes likely to jack up turnout on the other side at least as much.
If Sanders cant win a general election by changing the electorate, as these Democratic experts believe, that means he, like any other potential nominee, would need to win primarily by converting swing voters. Though Sanders always stresses mobilization, especially of young people, some of his supporters and advisers believe that he would be more likely to beat Trump by attracting working-class voters across racial lines, including whites, African Americans and Hispanics.
Tulchin counters that voters will overlook disagreements with any individual aspect of Sanders agenda if they believe he is fighting for their economic interests.
Alec Baldwin Thinks He Could Absolutely Beat Trump In 2020
The actor who plays Trump on SNL told Howard Stern he thinks he could beat the president in a one-on-one electoral match-up.
Technically, it was Howard Sterns idea. But Alec Baldwin was right there with him.
Ive got a name for you: Alec Baldwin, the SiriusXM host told his guest on Monday during a discussion about who the Democrats will run against Donald Trump in 2020.
If I ran, I would win, Baldwin replied, confidently. I would absolutely win. One thousand percent. The only two things stopping him, he joked, are his wifes disapproval and his role as host of The Match Game on ABC.
Why dont you run for president as Donald Trump? Stern suggested. And again, Baldwin, who is now best known for his Emmy-winning portrayal of Trump on Saturday Night Live, repeated his assertion.
If I ran for president, I would win. Hands down, I would win, he said. It would be the funniest, most exciting, craziest campaign. Hell, they could just hold the presidential debates on SNL and then the show wouldnt even have to parody them.
Turning more serious for a second, Baldwin said he was only saying that because people dont really have a sense yet of who is going to take on Trump in the next presidential election. Somebody great is going to come up, I hope, he said. Id love to run for that kind of position to just have things be very common sense. There are so many things that this country needs to do that are so obvious.
She must know what a maniac he is, Baldwin added.
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Can A Democrat Beat Trump In November Las Vegas Predicts 2020 Election Results
Bookmakers taking bets on who will win the presidential election in November mostly agree that President Trump is the favorite in the November race unless hes running against three-time New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg.
According to numbers published by Bet Online, an online bookmaker, oddsmakers gave Trump a 61.5 percent chance of winning the presidency by once again capturing the electoral college but losing the popular vote.
Still, betting lines gave Bloomberg the best odds among Democratic candidates to win the electoral college when running against Trump. The lower the number, the more the candidate is favored to win. The site puts Bloomberg at -125 against Trump in the electoral college, while every other candidate is above +100.
Once the national frontrunner, former Vice President Joe Biden, at +160, had the worst odds. That means a $100 bet on Biden would pay out $160. The site puts Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at +105, former South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg at +105, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar at +140 and any other candidate at +140.
Bloomberg, who has yet to compete nationally but is fueling his campaign with a massive spending effort, is in third place.
Us Election : Meet The Democratic Candidates Vying To Take On Trump
Election season is getting under way and the race to become the Democratic challenger to Donald Trump is hotting up.
Last summer, there were nearly 30 serious candidates vying for the attention of the party’s supporters, but only two are still standing.
Here’s a brief guide to who they are, with some analysis on each of them from the BBC’s Anthony Zurcher.
Who are they? What are their key issues? What’s their secret weapon against President Trump? We’ve got it all covered.
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Trump’s Lawyers Contradict Trump’s Claim That Mar
Should that exit come before the 2020 presidential race, it would set off a stampede of ambitious Republicans hoping to take Trumps place. The potential standard-bearers include lickspittle Trump loyalists, never-Trumpers already vying for the nomination, and establishment GOP politicians whove attempted to ride out the Trump storm without getting forever scarred by their association with the president.
Below, we rank the potential contenders for the 2020 GOP nomination in the absence of Trump.
1) Mike Pence
Faction: Trump Loyalist
2) Nikki Haley
Faction: Collaborationist Critic
3) Ted Cruz
Faction: True Conservative
Lets face it, with a power vacuum like this, Cruz wouldnt be able to help himself from taking another grab at the brass ring. The Texas senator is also fresh off a very expensive and competitive victory over Beto ORourke in 2018, which has kept the national organization from his 2016 presidential bid in operational shape. Cruz, who won the Iowa caucuses that cycle, also has links to big GOP money, including the Mercer family, as well as a 96 percent rating from Heritage Action.
4) Mitt Romney
Faction: Collaborationist Critic
5) Mike Pompeo
Faction: Trump Loyalist
6) Donald Trump Jr.
Faction: Trump Kid
7) John Kasich
8) Liz Cheney
Faction: Neocon Revivalist
If there were a neoconservative uprising, Rep. Cheney , the elder daughter of the former VP, would be an obvious leader.
9) Jim Jordan
Faction: Trump Loyalist
10) Ivanka Trump
Joe Biden Says ‘anybody’ Can Beat Donald Trump In 2020 Presidential Election
Former Vice President Joe Biden seems pretty confident a Democratic challenger could beat President Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election. Indeed, he said, “anybody” could beat the former reality-TV star.
The Intercept published a quick interaction with Biden on Monday in which it followed up on his previous comment that he is the most qualified candidate.
“Why do you think you could beat President Trump? Why is this your time?” The Intercept asked, to which Biden had a pretty straightforward response. “I think anybody can beat him,” he said.
Biden is considered by many political observers to be one of the front-runners for the 2020 Democratic nomination.
Early polling has backed up that assertion. A poll from The Des Moines Register over the weekend indicated that Biden would garner 32 percent of Democrats in the Iowa caucuses. That figure was more than a dozen percentage points clear of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, who earned the second most support.
Other surveys have suggested that Biden has earned similar levels of support on a national level. A CNN poll indicated that he had 30 percent support among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. That was well ahead of Sanders, at 13 percent, and upstart Texas congressman Beto O’Rourke, at 9 percent, who earned the second and third most support, respectively.
Still, 2020 is a ways off, and polling at this point largely indicates name-recognition levels.
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Cory Booker Kirsten Gillibrand Amy Klobuchar Kamala Harris
Being the establishment candidate in the current political climate is the kiss of death. Which is why even candidates who fit that mold will do everything they can to avoid the label including co-sponsoring Mr. Sanderss Medicare for All.
Mr. Booker, a New Jersey senator, has seemingly been running for president since he was a Rhodes scholar at Oxford in the 90s. But some of the well-heeled backers he picked up along the way including Big Pharma and Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump are now political poison in a Democratic primary. He may end up spending as much time distancing himself from his old supporters as cultivating new ones.
Ms. Gillibrand, a New York senator, is similarly well liked on Wall Street. Shes recast herself as a tough-talking liberal in recent years introducing legislation that would institute paid family leave but her obligations to the financial services sector will hamper her.
Kamala Harris, a freshman California senator, has become a liberal rock star with her tough questioning of Jeff Sessions and other Trump administration officials during Senate hearings. Its her record as California attorney general, her previous job, that could trip her up: She , the bank once headed by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, for alleged foreclosure violations. Still, Ms. Harris seems the most promising of this group not least because she has less of a voting record her opponents can use against her.
John Hickenlooper Steve Bullock
Some Democrats will be tempted to look beyond the Beltway for a savior. Thus the appeal of a certain type of pragmatic governor.
John Hickenlooper, in his second term as Colorado governor, has built a solid economic record there while also instituting tough gun control laws and overseeing the smooth introduction of legalized marijuana. Hes also evinced a willingness for bipartisanship that has served him well in purple Colorado. Hes an offbeat enough character that its possible to see him catching fire.
Steve Bullock is a second-term governor in deep-red Montana, and hed cast himself as someone whod help Democrats broaden their electoral map beyond the coasts. Its not a bad sales pitch. But Mr. Bullock isnt much of a salesman. One joke making the rounds about him goes that if you close your eyes while hes speaking, you hear Evan Bayh.
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Elizabeth Warren Sherrod Brown Jeff Merkley
As a democratic socialist, Senator Sanders has no real allegiance to the Democratic Party it often seems his populist movement would just as soon burn the party down. But there are other populists who are less antagonistic to the Democratic Party not to mention who actually belong to it.
If she runs, Elizabeth Warren, a Massachusetts senator, would instantaneously be the Democrats putative front-runner. Her anti-corporate agenda has made her a fund-raising powerhouse, and she seems to have found an ideological sweet spot between the centrist Clinton and populist Sanders factions. Additionally, thanks to the Nevertheless she persisted meme, shes become a feminist heroine.
But Ms. Warren, wholl be 71 in 2020, is an ambivalent politician a longtime law professor, she didnt run for office until 2012 and its not clear that she has the proverbial fire in the belly for a presidential bid.
Sherrod Brown, an Ohio senator, hails from a crucial swing state and has strong labor backing. Hes never seemed interested in a presidential run until now. A finalist in the 2016 Democratic veepstakes, he would be formidable in Rust Belt states. His politics match the mood, and while he might not have the raw talent of Senator Warren, hed be a strong Plan B.
Dwayne Johnson Oprah Winfrey
David Axelrod, Mr. Obamas political guru, likes to say that voters usually seek the remedy, not the replica of the incumbent. When you consider how much political logic has been turned on its head, perhaps Democrats will nominate a Trumpian figure of their own. Enter the Rock, who inspired the formation of a political action committee to support his presidential aspirations after he announced his intention to run for the White House .
Or what about Oprah Winfrey? Shes dipped her toe into politics before, backing Mr. Obama during the 2008 Democratic primaries. And after the conservative columnist John Podhoretz recently her the Democrats best hope in 2020 , Ms. Winfrey seemed open to the idea. She tweeted the article with the message to Mr. Podhoretz: Thanks for your vote of confidence!
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