Wednesday, September 28, 2022

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What Is The Chance That Trump Will Win In 2020

Donald Trump Coronavirus Update

Gravitas: Here’s why Donald Trump could win the 2024 Presidential Race

The coronavirus scare has had more of an impact on Donald Trumps re-election odds than all of his scandals to date. This is attributable not to any action on the Presidents part, but is indicative of the old adage that Its the economy, stupid. Indeed, COVID-19 rocked the stock market, one of Trumps core strengths heading into November, and Trump lost the election. America is very nearly in a real recession right now, even under the Biden administration.

To put the virus impact into perspective, a few days before Trump declared a national emergency over the Wuhan coronavirus, he was sitting at -5000 to win the GOP primary, but he immediately dropped to -3000. Meanwhile, the odds of Trump winning the general election were at -140. Those odds fell to +100 or worse following the early days of the American lockdown.

Still, Trump had proved capable of weathering all storms, and many bettors thought he would do so again. As with the stock market, buy the dip! To read further into how the Coronavirus affected Trumps odds in 2020, see our Coronavirus Election Odds Impact page.

Do Polls Or Odds Help Us Work Out Who Will Win The Presidential Election

If only it were that simple. As weve seen in countless elections in the US, the UK and elsewhere, polls dont always tell the whole story.

In the US, who wins the election often comes down to certain states and the electoral college system.

All 50 US states and Washington DC have a set number of electors in the electoral college and that number is roughly proportionate to the size of each state. There are 538 electors to win a majority and become president either candidate needs to get 270 electors, which is half the total plus one.

The number of electors per state is based on a states population so those with more people get more votes. For example, California the largest state gets 55 electors, while those with fewer populations like Wyoming get just three.

Ron Desantis’ Odds Of Winning The 2024 Us Presidential Election

The biggest riser on the presidential election odds board is DeSantis, who was +6,600 a year ago, +550 at the start of July, and is now at +300 . The 43-year-old remains coy about whether he will run for President but has become a Republican firebrand figure for his laissez-faire policies during the COVID-19 pandemic and his enactment of the Stop WOKE Act.

In the annual Western Conservative Summits straw poll taken last month, 71% of participants said they wanted DeSantis to run for president in 2024, compared to 67% for Trump.

While in the past, Trump has suggested that DeSantis would be unlikely to run against him, things may have changed. DeSantis has now amassed more than $100 million in his fundraising coffers and has declined to ask Trump for a reelection endorsement in Florida.

With Trump having a history of handing out endorsements based on loyalty, DeSantis refusing to kiss the ring could be a sign that he’s seriously considering running against him.

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Trump’s 2020 Chances ‘100 Percent Dead’ After 4 Swing State Lawsuits Are Dropped

President Trump’s longshot chances of overturning President-elect Joe Biden’s win just became pretty much impossible.

Even before Biden was projected to win the 2020 election, Trump and his supporters launched a bevvy of lawsuits aimed at disqualifying ballots in states Biden narrowly picked up. Those suits have slowly been dropped or dismissed, and on Monday, a slew of swing-state drops have all but eradicated Trump’s chances of changing the election outcome before the Electoral College finalizes it, CNN reports.

Using a similar strategy and backed by conservative attorney James Bopp Jr., voters in Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin all filed lawsuits challenging the legality of some votes cast in those states. Nine cases aimed at overturning Biden’s win were also dropped on Friday. The Trump campaign lost several suits in Pennsylvania that day as well. One case in Pennsylvania had attempted to throw out late-arriving mail-in ballots, and because it mirrored the strategy of the four cases dropped Monday, likely pushed the voters to give up.

With barely any of Trump’s election challenges left, Rick Hasen, an election law expert at the University of California, Irvine, became convinced that “Trump’s legal path to overturn the election results appears 100 percent dead.”

#ELB: Trumps Legal Path to Overturn the Election Results Appears 100 Percent Dead

Rick Hasen

More stories from theweek.com

Can We Trust The Polls

Opinion

Can we believe the polls this time?

It’s easy to dismiss the polls by saying they got it wrong in 2016 and President Trump frequently does exactly that. But it’s not entirely true.

Most national polls did have Hillary Clinton ahead by a few percentage points, but that doesn’t mean they were wrong, since she won three million more votes than her rival.

Pollsters did have some problems in 2016 – notably a failure to properly represent voters without a college degree – meaning Mr Trump’s advantage in some key battleground states wasn’t spotted until late in the race, if at all. Most polling companies have corrected this now.

But this year there’s even more uncertainty than normal due to the coronavirus pandemic and the effect it’s having on both the economy and how people will vote in November, so all polls should be read with some scepticism.

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Which States Will Decide This Election

As Mrs Clinton discovered in 2016, the number of votes you win is less important than where you win them.

Most states nearly always vote the same way, meaning that in reality there are just a handful of states where both candidates stand a chance of winning. These are the places where the election will be won and lost and are known as battleground states.

In the electoral college system the US uses to elect its president, each state is given a number of votes based on how many members it sends to Congress – House and Senate. A total of 538 electoral college votes are up for grabs, so a candidate needs to hit 270 to win.

As the map above shows, some battleground states have a lot more electoral college votes on offer than others so candidates often spend a lot more time campaigning in them.

Biden Leading National Presidential Polls

National polls are a good guide as to how popular a candidate is across the country as a whole, but they’re not necessarily a good way to predict the result of the election.

In 2016, for example, Hillary Clinton led in the polls and won nearly three million more votes than Donald Trump, but she still lost – that’s because the US uses an electoral college system, so winning the most votes doesn’t always win you the election.

With that caveat aside, Joe Biden has been ahead of Donald Trump in most national polls since the start of the year. He has hovered around 50% in recent months and has had a 10-point lead on occasions.

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The Importance Of Swing States

To date, Bidens substantial lead comes from blue states, but, as the Democratic candidate, he should be expected to win these states. Relying on this margin obfuscates the real race being foughtthat in the swing states. If we look at whats going on in battleground areas, there is a possibility that we could see the largest gap between the popular vote and the Electoral College in U.S. history.

Although it appears Trump has little chance of capturing the popular vote at this point, Biden leads in swing states by just 7.8 points. If Trump manages to run the table, it wouldnt be completely shocking to see him reelected.

A Trump win in 2020 would mark the third time in the past six presidential election cycles that the popular vote failed to elect the President of the United States. The commonality in these cases is that it would be a Republican who lost the popular vote but won the presidencyAl Gore vs. George W. Bush in 2000, Hillary Clinton vs. Trump in 2016, and potentially Joe Biden vs. Trump on Nov. 3. If a hypothetical Trump win were to happen, this would reveal a true disconnect between party politics, the Electoral College system, and the voice of the people.

Trump Betting Odds Faqs

Man who predicted Trump’s win makes bold impeachment prediction

Donald John Trump was elected President of the United States on Tuesday, November 8, 2016. He took office officially when he was sworn in on Friday, January 20, 2017.

Trump won the 2016 Presidential election by winning more electoral votes than his opponent, Hillary Clinton. The final tally was 304-227. While Clinton won the popular vote, she neglected to campaign in swing states and lost several that she thought was in the bag. Hillarys campaign was the most expensive in US history, while Trumps was the least expensive in several cycles.

The day Trump was elected on November 8, 2016, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 18,332.74. The next day, the Dow gained 312 points, closing at 18,613.52. As of May 15, 2020, the Dow sits at 23,649.76, due entirely to the effects of the coronavirus.

The odds of Trump winning in 2024 are not good, with his chances sitting between +800 and +3300 depending on the sportsbook you choose. Of course, that just means you can clean up bigly if he wins!

While many mainstream media pundits and Democratic politicians spent countless hours warning that Dictator Donald would use the coronavirus to declare martial law and cancel the November 2020 Presidential election, that did not happen. However, you could get odds on whether or not the election would be delayed by COVID-19 at some sportsbooks.

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Trumps Problem: Little Time Not Great Momentum

And thats precisely Trumps towering challenge. He needs to hold North Carolina, where hes just over even-money to win, overcome a small deficit in Arizona, and climb back from a shortfall in the odds of 58% to 42% in Pennsylvania. Hes got good to pretty good chances in each state. But to win, hes got to pull off not one, not two, but a near-miraculous trifecta.

Its important to address a yawning divergence in the overall odds for the nationwide, winner-take-all market on PredictIt, as well as the other betting sites, to those awarded by the Miller model. As noted, Millers methodology gives Trump a 1-in-4 chance of prevailing. But on PredictIt, Trumps line on Monday afternoon is 40% to 60%, or 2 in 5 to win, 15 points higher than Millers approximate 25%. So if Miller is using the PredictIt data, why is the probability his model puts on a Trump victory so much lower? Its that people who are betting on the nationwide winner-take-all poll are using their feelings about what will happen in the election, he says. But to understand the outcome in the Electoral College, you have to model it. And that requires a computer.

Opinioni’ve Been Talking About Beto O’rourke Since 2017 He’s A 2020 Democratic Frontrunner For A Reason

Furthermore, there are two key demographics that swung for Trump in the 2016 election that Democrats need to win back in 2020: Independent voters and most importantly, suburban female voters. In the 2016 election, over 47 percent of Trumps voters were women a statistic that still shocks many pundits and analysts to this day. But due to the rhetoric and blunders of the White House, nearly 30 percent of those women now have a very poor impression of Trump according to a recent Pew Research Poll.

Worse than just their sentiments toward Trump, though, suburban women who catapulted him into the White House swung blue in the midterm elections. A USA Today analysis of the 2018 midterm election found more than 80 suburban counties and cities with high incomes and large number of college-educated voters voted more Democratic than in 2016. These gains were huge for Democrats, but this demographic could change again in 2020 if Republicans were to get smart about their candidates, rhetoric, and strategy, which no one expects.

These suburban and college-educated women who are increasingly aligning themselves with the Democratic party also describe themselves as mostly moderates looking for a government that compromises.

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Trump Republican Nomination Odds

Odds for winning the 2020 Republican nomination were in Trumps favor since they were initially released. Trump was the incumbent Republican President and therefore had the best odds to receive his partys nomination.

However, Trump ended up losing to Joe Biden. That said, Trump, despite losing his reelection bid, is currently favored to win the GOP primaries in 2024, and all the sportsbooks are taking action on those Trump election chances.

Top 5 Democrats With The Best Chance To Beat Trump

2020 election: Trump wins in Florida

Well rank each Democrat based on their current odds, display whether their chances have been going up or down since January 1, 2019, and provide some insight into the top 5 most likely Trump challengers. Some candidates didnt have odds to start the year or currently dont have odds at all and well indicate when thats the case.

1. Joe Biden

  • Then: +1400
  • % Change: +13.33%
  • The former Vice President saw his odds skyrocket after he officially made his announcement in late April. Biden is now not only the Democratic favorite but public money has also made him the biggest riser on the board since 2019 began. His national recognition and huge favorability Rust Belt where Trump won big in 2016 makes Biden the biggest threat to Trumps re-election bid.

2. Bernie Sanders

  • Then: +1400
  • % Change: +5.83%
  • Sen. Bernie Sanders comes second and is not far behind Biden. The Vermont US senator gained national attention in 2016 for his Democratic Socialism platform and became Hillary Clintons biggest challenger for the partys nomination. This time, the public knows who Bernie is, which is why hes received more first-quarter donations than any other Democratic candidate.

3. Kamala Harris

4. Pete Buttigieg

5. Elizabeth Warren

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Who Is Donald Trump

2020 Presidential Election Update: Donald Trump lost reelection to Joe Biden in the November general, with Biden being sworn in as Americas 46th President on January 20, 2021. Trump is considering a Presidential bid for 2024, and he is also throwing a lot of support behind conservative candidates for Congressional and Gubernatorial seats.

Donald Trump is 74 years old and was the United States 45th President. Trump ran for President in 2016 as a Republican and filed his reelection campaign with the FEC on the date of his presidential inauguration on January 20, 2019, eventually losing reelection to Joe Biden in 2020.

Before becoming POTUS, Trump was best known for his real estate development and reality television appearances. Since Trump took office, the best online sportsbooks have had non-stop Trump odds on offer in every imaginable political betting market, which continues even as Trump is once again a private citizen. It is safe to say that Trump was the most bet-on President in US history. Today, you will find re-election odds for Donald Trump Sr., as well as 2024 Presidential odds for his kids including Ivanka Trump, Donald Trump Jr., and Eric Trump.

Us Election 2020 Polls: Who Is Ahead

BBC News

Voters in America will decide on 3 November whether Donald Trump remains in the White House for another four years.

The Republican president is being challenged by Democratic Party nominee Joe Biden, who is best known as Barack Obama’s vice-president but has been in US politics since the 1970s.

As election day approaches, polling companies will be trying to gauge the mood of the nation by asking voters which candidate they prefer.

We’ll be keeping track of those polls here and trying to work out what they can and can’t tell us about who will win the election.

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In An Interview With ‘the New Yorker’ Stewart Said That Trump Is ‘brilliant At Understanding What Will Drive The Television Narratives’

American comic and former host of The Daily Show Jon Stewart said he believes former US president Donald Trump has a “very good chance” of winning the 2024 presidential election, HuffPost has reported.

In an interview with The New Yorker‘s David Remnick, Stewart said that Trump is “brilliant at understanding what will drive the television narratives,” referring to the at the US Capitol as a TV “special” on which all media attention was centered, according to HuffPost.

Stewart added that the fact Trump still has a large base of support after the riot, which he is alleged to have incited, demonstrates his resilience as a politician. Referring to the success of Trump’s scandal-rife 2016 campaign, Stewart said that “very few people can bankrupt that many things and still continue on with that kind of success,” according to The Hill.

The comedian said that the riot, as well as Trump’s attempts to overturn the 2020 election highlighted weak spots in the fragile American democracy and suggested that Republicans could potentially replace election officials with ideologues loyal to them and bring about “minority rule,” the HuffPost reported.

He predicted that a Trump 2024 campaign would be centered around the former president’s false claims that the 2020 election was stolen, The Hill added.

Is It Legal To Bet On Donald Trump Odds

What are the odds of Trump winning re-election?

Betting on Donald Trump political odds are legal if you do so through a respected international sportsbook operating legitimately online. It has long been the policy of Vegas sportsbooks to only accept wagers on sporting contests. Sportsbooks located in Las Vegas do not provide betting lines or odds on political outcomes or any other category that would fall under the realm of entertainment betting.

But not to worry! The best online sportsbooks all offer odds for entertainment and political betting and are perfectly legal thanks to the fact that federal law does not bar the use of sportsbooks located in other countries. Washington state has passed laws that forbid all forms of online gaming, but weve yet to see where anyone has faced prosecution for doing so. Still, if you live in WA, it is advised that your stick with the local mandates and refrain from online election betting.

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