The Reason Sanders Appears Equally Electable
These Bernie or bust voters that come off the sidelines for Sanders in our survey are almost entirely limited to one group: Democrats and independents under age 35. These voters are about 11 percentage points more likely to say they would vote for Democrats if Sanders is nominated and almost all of them say they would not vote at all or vote third party if hes not on the ballot.
However, the Bernie or bust phenomenon appears almost entirely limited to left-leaning young people, who are usually a small share of the overall electorate. This stands in contrast to many theories of Sanderss electoral appeal: For example, whites without a college degree a demographic some speculate Sanders could win over are actually more likely to say they will vote for Trump against Sanders than against the other Democrats. The same is true of the rest of the electorate, except left-leaning young people.
This finding in our data mirrors many other surveys: Morning Consult finds dramatic increases in young Americans stated turnout intentions when asked how they would vote in matchups between Sanders and Trump.
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When I meet people and they find out I am a political reporter, they inevitably — and immediately — ask some version of this question: “Is he going to run again? And can he win?”
The Point: Trump is the least predictable politician, well, ever. Which means that you can never bank of anything with him — including another run for president. But, man does it look and sound like he is going to run again. And, yes, he can win.
Can Donald Trump Run Again In 2024
Yes, Donald Trump can run for re-election in 2024.
Only Grover Cleveland has served two non-consecutive terms as president in US history, serving his first from 1885-1889 and his second from 1893-1897. Despite the fact that Trump just got the second-most votes for a presidential candidate in US history, there is one big reason why he may have an uphill climb to secure a third nomination from the Republican Party.
In June of 2024, Trump will turn 78 years old. That would make him the oldest major-party presidential candidate in US history, setting him up to be pushing 83 when his potential second term would end.
UK books currently favor Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, and Ivanka Trump to be the GOP nominee in 2024. Either Haley or Ivanka Trump would be the first female presidential nominee in the history of the Republican Party. Ivanka Trump would also be the first daughter of a president to receive such a nomination.
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From Obama To Trump To Sanders
For Democrats still scarred by the memory of November 2016, it is easy to imagine that Donald Trump is an electoral juggernaut, endowed with awesome and occult powers. But the truth is closer to the opposite: Trump is a historically unpopular leader who won a narrow electoral college victory over an equally unpopular rival.
Beyond a core of die-hard Republicans, most Americans dont like Trump at all. Since his first few months in office, Trumps overall approval rating has hovered between 38 and 42 percent, making him by far the most consistently disliked president in modern US history. George H.W. Bush and Jimmy Carter, the last two incumbents to lose an election, had much better numbers than Trump over their first three years in office.
Even in the key swing states where he defeated Hillary Clinton Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania Trumps approval rating has been consistently underwater for over a year now.
Trump can be beaten, and the way to do it involves winning three key groups of voters in these Rust Belt battlegrounds: first, the Democrats and independents who backed Obama twice before turning to Trump second, Obama voters who declined to vote in 2016 and third, the even larger group of Americans who do not typically vote at all.
Despite his residual popularity among Democrats stemming from the Obama years , Joe Biden cannot deliver this message.
Class Politics At Scale
Our enthusiasm about a possible Sanders versus Trump contest isnt confined to the prospect that Sanders will win. How Sanders can beat Trump has enormous implications for the future of American politics.
First, we should remember a simple fact of scale, easy to forget if you follow politics as a vocation or an obsession: general elections are much, much larger than primaries.
About 31 million people voted in the 2016 Democratic primary, one of the most hotly contested nominating contests in U.S. history. Over 136 million voted in the general election. The same ratio applies to campaign spending: together, Clinton and Sanders spent about $445 million in their primary race. In the general election, Clinton and Trump spent about $1.8 billion.
Using the 2016 primary race as his platform, Sanders was able to demonstrate that radical left-wing ideas like Medicare For All, tuition-free public college, and a $15 minimum wage actually had an enormous base of support, far beyond any niche of self-defined progressives. This revelation has already left a deep imprint on the Democratic Party which has absorbed much of Sanderss program, either in fact or in rhetoric and will probably shape American politics for years to come.
A Sanders general election campaign would present an opportunity of the same kind, but on a scale roughly four times as large.
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Us Election : Could It Be Bernie Sanders V Donald Trump
Bernie Sanders is firmly the front-runner in the race to become the Democratic challenger to Republican President Donald Trump, fresh from a victory this week in the second state-by-state contest. His support is fervent but is his party, let alone the country, ready to embrace such an unusual candidate?
Bernie Sanders likes to call his presidential campaign a revolution, but these days it feels more like a touring rock concert.
The Vermont senator may seem like an unlikely front-man for bands like Vampire Weekend and The Strokes, but both have served as his warm-up acts, playing at recent campaign rallies.
But the thousands of fans in packed arenas reserve their loudest cheers for the scruffy-haired 78-year-old candidate with a clipped Brooklyn accent.
After nearly a year-long marathon of rallies, meetings, debates and ground-laying, the Sanders campaign is now entering a sprint of near-nonstop activity that will carry it through dozens of states across the country – an impressive test of endurance for a man who just months ago was hospitalised for a heart attack.
“Bernie Sanders is the only candidate that has given me the courage to believe that we cannot only demand bold, radical change, but that it’s actually very attainable,” said Aletha Shapiro, who travelled to New Hampshire from Long Island, New York, to help the Sanders campaign.
“If the people stick together, we can actually put power back in the hands of the people.”
Bernie Is The Candidate Who Can Beat Trump Heres Why
Do you want to see Donald Trump defeated in 2020? Of course you do. The candidate who is best positioned to do exactly that: Bernie Sanders.
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In the race for the Democratic nomination, one figure towers above the field: the large, misshapen form of President Donald Trump. The trauma of Trumps shock victory in November 2016, and the reign of greed, brutality, and arrogance that has followed seemingly impervious to organized opposition has given Trump a special standing among Democrats.
The polls are unanimous: a healthy majority of Democratic primary voters say that it is more important to find a candidate who can beat Trump than one who they agree with on the issues. This is not a standard view for voters opposed to an incumbent president. On the eve of his 2004 re-election campaign, for instance, fewer than half of all Democrats said the same about George W. Bush.
Across the primary campaign, Bernie Sanders and many of his supporters have argued that it is not enough to defeat Trump: we need to organize to transform the abysmal economic conditions that produced Trump, too. This is all very true.
But this primary season, anxious Democrats should trust their guts. It turns out that the candidate they like best, Bernie Sanders, is also the candidate with the best chance to knock Trump out of the White House.
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Back To The Polls For Bernie
Just as important as Obama-Trump voters are the millions of Obama voters who did not cast a ballot in 2016. Any good autopsy of the last presidential election will emphasize that turnout in key states was dismal. In Wisconsin, for example, turnout was down 3 percent from 2012, and in Ohio it was down 4 percent. In order to win, those margins need to be recovered or exceeded by Trumps opponent in 2020.
Some commentators are quick to attribute low turnout in 2016 to restrictive voting laws, implying that nothing can be done to bring voters back to the polls. But then how to explain the fact that 1.7 million people cast incomplete ballots in these states and others, declining to vote for any presidential candidate far more than had been the case in 2012?
In Michigan, Donald Trump won by about ten thousand votes, while seventy-five thousand people cast ballots but declined to register a presidential preference. Meanwhile, nearly 3 million eligible voters didnt even bother to go to the polls.
The Pew Research Center found that, nationwide, non-voters top reason for abstaining in 2016 was that they did not like candidates or campaign issues. Twenty-five percent of nonvoters cited distaste for both candidates as their rationale for staying home, compared to only 13 percent in 2012 and 8 percent in 2000.
Why Trump Wants Bernie Sanders To Win The Democratic Nomination
President Trump has stepped up his efforts to boost Bernie Sanders presidential campaign and to sow doubts among Sanders supporters about the fairness of the nomination process, an update of the disruptive strategy he believes helped him win the White House four years ago.
People close to Trump and his campaign say the tactic is as deliberate as it is simple, with a goal of creating chaos in the Democratic Party in hopes of weakening its turnout in November while aiding a potential opponent who Trump considers fatally flawed.
With Sanders hoping to lock down a clear delegate lead after the all-important Super Tuesday contests on March 3, Trump also is playing a card that fires up his own base, taunting the iconoclastic senator from Vermont as a crazy socialist who would lead the country into economic ruin if elected.
Sometimes he combines the two messages. After Sanders won the Feb. 22 Nevada caucuses, for example, Trump congratulated Crazy Bernie in a tweet, warning Dont let them take it away from you!
On Tuesday in New Delhi, Trump claimed without evidence that Democrats had leaked intelligence to undermine Sanders campaign. Democrats dont want him, so they put out a thing that Russia is backing him, Trump said.
Unlike in 2016, Sanders had a hand in crafting the Democrats nominating rules this year, giving him less room to argue that the process was designed to make him fail.
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Who Would Win A Trump
Sen. Bernie Sanderss victory in the Nevada caucuses Saturday will move him into the lead in the Democratic Partys presidential nominating contest. Polling from the large states that vote on Super Tuesday suggests that Sanders may soon solidify his lead, and, should he do so, he may not relinquish it.
For a number of observers, this has spurred emotional assessments of how Sanders in particular might fare against President Trump in Novembers general election. Its easy to find oneself buffeted by various analyses of where Sanders stands and whether another candidate might fare better. With that in mind, weve grouped evaluations of such a matchup with an eye toward weeding out motivated rhetoric and focusing on whats known.
Can Sanders Beat Trump A Growing Number Of Democratic Voters Say Yes
By Joseph Ax
6 Min Read
NEW YORK – Bernie Sanders Democratic presidential rivals warn that nominating the self-described democratic socialist will ensure President Donald Trumps re-election, but a growing number of the partys voters see the senator as their best chance of winning in November.
Sanders dominating performance in last weeks Nevada caucuses, powered by growing support across age, race and ideology, has set off alarm bells among Democratic Party officials who believe putting the progressive stalwart at the top of the ticket will harm the partys chances up and down the ballot.
Sanders electability was a prime topic at Tuesdays Democratic presidential debate in South Carolina. Rivals contended his ambitious liberal policy ideas, such as Medicare for All, which would replace private health insurance, would be an electoral catastrophe, costing the party the White House and control of Congress.
But the latest Reuters/Ipsos polling shows Sanders rising momentum in the race – a near win in Iowa, a narrow victory in New Hampshire and a decisive win in Nevada – has given him more credibility with Democratic voters.
Some 26% of Democrats and independents polled Feb. 17-25 said they believed Sanders was the strongest Democrat in a head-to-head matchup with Trump, compared with 20% who picked billionaire businessman Michael Bloomberg and 17% who named former Vice President Joe Biden.
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MAJOR CONCERNS AMONG MODERATES
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Trump Or Sanders: Who Does Russia Want To Be President
Post by Clint Watts
On Wednesday, February 19, President Trump relieved acting Director of National Intelligence Joseph Maguire and appointed Richard Grenell, a controversial and notoriously partisan figure, as the new acting Director of National Intelligence. The following day, the New York Times reported that Maguires firing came in response to a DNI briefing to the House Intelligence Committee in which lawmakers were told about Russias efforts to help President Trump get reelected. By late Friday, the Washington Post revealed that Senator Bernie Sanderss campaign had also been notified by U.S. officials about Russian efforts to help the Sanders campaign in 2020. Shortly after, Sanders said he did not know of or seek Russias support, but the Bloomberg and Biden campaigns used the disclosure as an avenue to challenge the Sanders campaign.
So which is it? Does Russia want Trump or Sanders to win the U.S. presidency?
The real objective is a bit more complicated, and not entirely dichotomous. The only thing we should assume to know for sure is that Putin and the Kremlin, with a singular influence campaign employed headed into the 2016 election, have continued to sow discord in America ever since and have achieved a strategic victory against the U.S. that continues to provide returns today.
