Trumps Poll Numbers Are Collapsing But Where Will They Be In November
President Trump is collapsing in the polls. His approval rating is in the low 40s and dropping. Nationally, hes running behind Biden by nine points, according to FiveThirtyEight.coms average or by as much as 14 points in the latest Siena College/New York Times poll. Hes losing in key battleground states as well Biden has substantial leads in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, among other places.
If the election were held tomorrow, Trump would almost certainly lose.
But the election is not being held tomorrow. And a whole lot can happen in the next four and a half months.
Early polling was not indicative of what happened in 1976 or of 1968. It was not indicative of 1980 or 1992 or 2016, said Frank Luntz, a longtime pollster who has worked for Newt Gingrich and Pat Buchanan, among other clients. There have been so many cases where the numbers changed in the last days. What early polling does is tell us where were headed but not where well end up.
Consider the Gallup general election poll that gave Michael Dukakis a 17-point lead over George H.W. Bush in late July 1988. That lead evaporated over the months that followed and he was defeated in November.
My advice to any candidate is dont count on the polls, Dukakis told me when I called him last week. Go out and organize in every one of the 50 states and take nothing for granted and keep driving and driving until election day.
So yeah, Democrats shouldnât get complacent.
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Bidens Poll Numbers Slide Yet Again
By: Dovonan Corzo, Mixed Texan Politics
Its time for an update on Bidens poll numbers. It has been a long and disastrous first year of the Biden regime with soaring gas prices, rising inflation a major crisis at the border, and tyrannical vaccine mandates. Joe was elected on the notion he was a unifier and that he would shut down the virus, although more people have died from Covid under his watch than Trumps.
A recent USA Today/Suffolk poll has Biden at a 37.8% approval rating and 59% disapproval among. Not surprisingly but yet encouraging, it also shows that if the midterms were held today, Republicans would defeat Democrats 46-38%.
Our great Vice President in name only is doing much worse as only 28% give her a thumbs up compared to 51% who disapprove of the job she is doing among those who were surveyed. She is such an unlikeable person, goodness. I wonder if she will be laughing
To make matters worse, 64% said they dont want to see Biden run again and 46% feel he has done a worse job than expected. That includes 28% of Democrats and Independents by a whopping 7-1 margin, ouch. If the presidential election were held today, Donald Trump would beat Biden 44-40%.
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Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
Sponsored by Sponsored by Miranda Devine’s “LAPTOP FROM HELL”
Monday, September 12, 2022
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll, sponsored by Miranda Devine’s LAPTOP FROM HELL for Monday shows that 45% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Bidens job performance. Fifty-three percent disapprove.
The latest figures include 20% who Strongly Approve of the job Biden is doing and 40% who Strongly Disapprove. This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -20.
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Biden Is Furious That Hes Below Trump In Polls But It Just Got Even Worse
As we noted earlier, Brain-Dead Biden is in a quandary as to how to change his sliding numbers. Hes frustrated even that his numbers are worse than those of President Donald Trump. As NBC noted, Hes now lower than Trump, and hes really twisted about it, another person close to the White House said. He also thinks Democrats arent defending him enough.
Biden is supposedly upset that his people are undercutting him, but his people respond, We dont say anything that the president doesnt want us to say. In other words, what Biden is saying now or what NBC is spreading out there to try to make him look better just doesnt add up.
Thats the problem when it comes to Biden thats why the polls are continuing to crash: because no one believes that Brain-Dead Biden knows what he is doing and they believe all the issues that we are having to deal with can be laid right in the lap of his confusion.
It isnt getting any better for him.
The Civiqs poll just hit the basement on Biden: 34 percent.
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Approval Ratings By State
Approval ratings vary greatly by state and can indicate how a state will vote in the upcoming 2020 Presidential Election. Since his inauguration in January 2017, President Trumps net approval has decreased in every state. President Trumps approval rating is decreasing in important states that he won in his 2016 election, including swing states and states that are consistently Republican in every election. The three key states Trump had in his 2016 election are Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, all of which currently have approval ratings under 50%.
Below are each states approval ratings for President Trump as of February 2020. Data is from a poll by the Morning Consult.
- Net approval since Trump took office has decreased by 22 percentage points
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Donald Trump Has Become More Popular Since The January 6 Capitol Attack
Analysis by Harry Enten, CNN
Former President Donald Trump still manages to dominate the political headlines, nearly a year and half after leaving office. On Thursday, the House select committee investigating the January 6 attack on the US Capitol used its first prime-time hearing to make the case that Trump used his power to try and overturn the 2020 election result.
Absence Makes The Heart Grow Fonder
Americans tend to view presidents more favorably in retrospect than they do while in office, Gallup polling has shown.
In addition to leaving office, another factor has kept Trump from a continuous spotlight: Social media giants Twitter, Facebook and YouTube have all banned the former president from posting on their platforms, a decision they enacted shortly after his supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol in January. The companies have argued the move is necessary to prevent the spread of dangerous misinformation, though its raised questions about free speech and censorship on social media.
Trump has remained an active guest on conservative platforms, and he briefly posted thoughts to a personal blog. But stripped of his Twitter account and the White House megaphone, hes largely receded from mainstream attention.
Selzer said none of that appears to be hurting Trumps favorability numbers in Iowa.
It doesnt seem to be a case of out of sight out of mind, she said. Maybe its a little bit more of absence makes the heart grow fonder.
In a December 2018 Iowa Poll of registered Republicans, only 19% of respondents said they thought posting potentially inflammatory messages on Twitter on a regular basis was a good move for Trump. Far more 72% said doing so was a mistake.
Karen Moon, a 32-year-old Indianola resident and poll respondent, said she was never a fan of Trumps public persona.
She would definitely vote for him if he ran again for president, Moon said.
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The Sample And Margin Of Error
Pollsters cant realistically contact every American adult throughout the country and ask their opinion on a given issue. Instead, they try to contact a representative sampleusually anywhere between 1,000 and 2,000 individualsthat accurately represents the countrys population as a whole. Pollsters, with the help of statisticians, demographers, and data experts, use a variety of techniques to create a representative sample. This typically involves using probability formulas and algorithms to ensure random sampling and to increase the likelihood of contacting an accurate cross-section of the U.S. adult population. Some pollsters also create panels of respondents that they believe reflect the actual population and poll them repeatedly over a span of time. These polls are usually called tracking polls. Oftentimes, pollsters weigh their respondents to account for various demographic measurements. For example, a pollster might weigh more heavily the responses from a specific demographic group if that group was poorly represented in the random sample in relation to the countrys estimated demographic composition. The same might be done if a group appears to be overrepresented.
Build Your Own Chart: Tracking Us Favorability And Confidence In The Us President 2002 To 2018
Use the tool below to explore how individual countries view the U.S. and its president, and how these views have changed over time. Keep in mind that surveys are not conducted in every country for every year. But the patterns over time should be clear, since this interactive includes all available data for the 25 countries on these two questions.
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Polling Average Put Biden’s Approval Rating Higher Than 39%
Experts say approval ratings should be calculated by looking at an average between polls not a single poll. On the day the claim was made, the polling average for Biden’s approval rating was 45.2%.
“The best practice to look at multiple polls and not to fixate on an individual poll, which can be cherry-picked to make inaccurate arguments,” Barry Burden, director of the Elections Research Center and professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said in an email.
The website FiveThirtyEight rates how different polls vary in terms of accuracy and statistical bias. It calculates approval ratings for presidents based on a weighted average that takes into account poll quality and uncertainty.
According to that polling average, Biden’s approval rate was 45.2% on the day the claim was posted.
The Facebook post appeared to refer to an Economist/YouGov poll conducted Sept. 4-7. It reported 39% of American adults approved of Biden. YouGov noted this was the first time the majority of Americans disapproved of Biden during his presidency.
However, Burden told USA TODAY this poll was “unusually low.”
“In the last month YouGov has also reported approval ratings of 44% and 50%,” he said. “Taken as a group it is more accurate to say that Biden’s rating is hovering in the mid-40s.”
Fact Check: Is Donald Trump’s Popularity ‘through The Roof’ Since Fbi Raid
Donald Trump’s war of words following the raid on his Mar-a-Lago residence has been as much a part of the story as the findings of the FBI search.
The former president’s accusations have included that the bureau planted evidence, that the raid was a search for Hillary Clinton emails, as well as making calls for a “new election” that could reinstate him.
Despite the real possibility of prosecution, Trump has also said that the raid, far from damaging his reputation, has actually propped up his popularity.
A tweet posted on September 1, 2022, included a video in which Donald Trump said his poll numbers had “gone through the roof” because of the FBI raid of Mar-a-Lago.
Trump this morning on the search: My poll numbers have gone through the roof because of it. Ive never been involved in an event thats driven me up like this.
It’s not clear which polls Trump is referring to. As he no longer serves as a political leader, and has not officially confirmed his intention to run for office in 2024, there are fewer live trackers of his approval ratings, as there were when he was president.
Most polls are published through think tanks and media outlets which may have their own political leanings and/or choose to work with a polling company that is more likely to represent groups of one political persuasion.
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Country Spotlights: Germany Mexico Canada Japan Israel
Findings from Germany, Mexico, Canada, Japan and Israel illustrate key patterns and major differences in how foreign publics view the U.S. in 2018.
Germany: A sharp negative turn in the Trump era
Germany stands out as a country where Americas image is considerably more negative today than during the Barack Obama era. Whereas Obama was extremely popular in Germany , only around one-in-ten Germans have voiced confidence in Trump in each of the past two years, ratings similar to those registered for George W. Bush at the end of his second term. Germany stands out on other measures as well. It is the country with the highest percentage saying relations with the U.S. have deteriorated over the past year, and it is tied with Sweden for the largest share of the public saying the U.S. is doing less to confront global problems. Germany is also where the biggest declines have taken place in recent years regarding the belief that the U.S. respects personal freedom and that Washington listens to other countries in international affairs.
Mexico: Strong opposition to Trump
Mexico is where Trump gets his lowest ratings on the survey: Just 6% in the United States southern neighbor have confidence in him. Last year, more than nine-in-ten Mexicans opposed Trumps plan to build a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border. This year, 66% in Mexico say relations have gotten worse over the past 12 months.
Canada: U.S. favorability hits a low point
Israel: Trumps ratings improved
Who Is Following The Jan 6 Hearings
The hearings are unlikely to be a factor in shaping Republican views because most say they are paying little to no attention to the investigation. According to this latest poll, 58 percent of Americans said they were paying at least some attention to the hearings, while another 41 percent said they were paying little to no attention, including 56 percent of Republicans. Democrats are the most reliable audience for the Jan. 6 hearings, with 80 percent following along.
Its almost an article of faith for a Republican to say, Im not paying attention to this stuff, Ayres said.
No matter how earth-shattering these hearings are, there is also little to suggest they will inform the way people vote during the November midterms. In fact, only 9 percent of U.S. adults said it will be top of mind for them this fall, including 17 percent of Democrats and 2 percent of Republicans. A far larger share of Americans 37 percent said they care most about inflation, including 57 percent of Republicans and 42 percent of independents.
For Democrats, abortion ranked as the top concern. Following the Supreme Courts overturning of Roe v. Wade and the loss of federal protections for the medical procedure in June, 29 percent of Democrats and 18 percent of Americans overall picked abortion as what matters most to them.
Chart by Megan McGrew/PBS NewsHour
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Fewer Especially In Europe Say Us Respects Individual Liberty
Americas reputation as a defender of individual liberty has generally been strong in Pew Research Center surveys since we first started asking about it in 2008. The prevailing view among the publics surveyed has typically been that the U.S. government respects the personal liberties of its people, and that is true again in this years poll. However, this opinion has become less common over time, and the decline has been particularly sharp among key U.S. partners in Europe, North America and Asia.
The decline began during the Obama administration following revelations about the National Security Agencys electronic eavesdropping on communications around the world, and it has continued during the first two years of the Trump presidency. The drop is especially prominent in Western Europe, where the share of the public saying Washington respects personal freedom has declined sharply since 2013.
The same pattern is found among several other U.S. allies as well, including Canada, where the percentage saying the U.S. respects individual freedom has dropped from 75% to 38% since 2013, and Australia, where it has gone from 72% to 45%.
Trumps Survival After Scandals
More than a year and a half since Trump left office, 58 percent of Americans hold an unfavorable view of him, according to this latest poll. That includes 89 percent of Democrats and 63 percent of independents. But 83 percent of Republicans say they still favor Trump, along with roughly a third of all Americans.
Trumps favorability among the GOP outpaces that of a handful of other Republicans who are considered potential rivals for a White House bid in 2024:
According to GOP strategist and conservative pollster Whit Ayres, most Republicans are also open to having a new candidate who carries less baggage than they believe Trump carries as their nominee in 2024.
It all depends on who the alternatives are, Ayres said. Most alternatives arent nationally known here.
Trumps political resilience is unlike anything else in U.S. presidential history, said Jeffrey Engel, who directs the Center for Presidential History at Southern Methodist University in Dallas.
As with everything with Donald Trump, history gives us no guide, Engel said.
One comparison is tough to ignore, though todays political dynamics are nearly opposite. In 1974, after an investigation uncovered that President Richard Nixons reelection campaign had bugged the phones at the Democratic National Committee headquarters, Nixon resigned in disgrace before he could be impeached. He retreated from public life and partially rebuilt his reputation in foreign policy during the decades that followed, Engel said.