Trump Vs Clinton In Opinion Polls
Over the course of 2020, Biden’s lead over Trump in opinion polls has widened. A list of head-to-head match-ups for Clinton and Trump in opinion polls can be found on Wikipedia.
RealClearPolitics also compiles an average of national polls, which mirrors the Wikipedia compilation above and shows Biden leading Trump consistently throughout 2020.
Another tracker of national sentiment is compiled by FiveThirtyEight.com. Their visualization also shows Biden has a lead of roughly 8 percentage points as of October 3, 2020.
It should be noted that opinion polls can paint a misleading picture. In 2016, these same models and averages showed Clinton leading Trump by 3 to 4 percentage points. And although Trump lost the popular vote, he did win the electoral vote and therefore the presidency.
Voting Methods In The 2020 Presidential Election
The 2020 election brought a huge change in howAmericans cast their ballots. As some states looked to adapt to challenges in administering elections amid the COVID-19 pandemic, large numbers of voters were offered expanded access to absentee and vote-by-mail options in the 2020 election. As a result, a record number of voters said they cast their ballots this way . And smaller shares of voters said they either voted in person on Election Day or in person before Election Day .
A majority of absentee voters said they had previously voted this way before the 2020 election . Still, a sizable share said the November election was the first time they had cast an absentee or mail ballot.
Sizable shares of voters across racial and ethnic subgroups cast absentee or mail-in ballots in the 2020 election though there are some differences in voting methods when comparing across groups. White voters were most likely to say they voted in person on Election Day . Comparably smaller shares of Black and Hispanic voters said the same.
Black voters were more likely than White or Hispanic voters to say they cast their ballot in person before Election Day .
Voters ages 65 and older stand out in their voting behavior: 55% say they voted absentee or by mail in the 2020 election 13 percentage points higher than the share of adults under 65 who cast a ballot by mail.
Donald Trump Vs Joe Biden
This is an unbiased comparison of the policy and political positions of Joe Biden and Donald Trump, candidates for president from the Democratic and Republican parties respectively.
For the most part, the candidates’ views conform with the political platform of their party Biden is “pro-choice” on abortion rights, Trump is “pro-life” Biden supports the DREAM Act and a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, while Trump wants to deport all undocumented immigrants and build a wall on the Mexican border Biden wants to expand gun control legislation, Trump does not Biden wants to raise taxes on companies and “high-income” households while the Trump administration cut taxes for individuals in all income brackets, as well as all corporations.
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Are Young People At An Economic Disadvantage
Svaia says he never looked at the 2020 elections from a personal finance perspective and is more so interested in what candidates policies mean for social issues, with some of his top policy priorities being Medicare for All and cancelling student loan debt.
The Chicago resident has seen that opinion shared among other young voters and notes that others might not care about the personal finance issues as much because they feel resigned to a lifetime of uneven and disparate economic opportunity, which first started in the aftermath of the Great Recession and has only been exacerbated at the hands of the coronavirus economic upheaval.
We just dont have access to the same investments that other generations have had in the past, Svaia says. Young people like myself have accepted that were at a disadvantage economically because of an entire system that was really designed against our generation.
Svaia says hes seen colleagues who graduated 10 years ago, in the aftermath of the Great Recession, who are now in a similar stage of their careers as him, even though he graduated in 2016. He foresees that repeating again. People who graduate in 2021 are also going to be at a setback because of low hiring, he says.
Growing Demographic Groups Reside Mostly In Biden Counties
Calculated as a share of the national population, 60% of U.S. residents live in Biden counties. Yet this share varies widely across demographic groups, with Biden counties most likely to be home to growing groups and those with urban attributes in terms of race-ethnicity, education, foreign-born status, and even marital status.
Among race-ethnic groups, significant shares of the nations people of color live in Biden counties. Roughly three-quarters of the U.S. Black and Latino or Hispanic populations live there, as do 86% of Asian Americans and nearly two-thirds of persons identifying as two or more races. In contrast, only half of the nations white population resides in Biden counties.
Distinct among that white population are white college graduates, of whom nearly two-thirds live in Biden counties. All other white population groups without a college education are more likely to live in Trump counties. This is especially true for whites with high school educations or less.
Two other demographic attributes that sharply contrast across Biden and Trump counties are nativity and marital status. More than four-fifths of foreign-born U.S. residents reside in Biden counties, compared to less than three-fifths of native-born Americans who do. Similarly, single people are more likely to live in Biden counties than those that are currently married.
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What These Divisions Imply For The Future
These statistics make plain that the U.S. is deeply divided by demographics and politics. But Bidens win in counties that house a decided majority of the U.S. population bodes well for the Democrats in future presidential election years, especially because the urban demographic groups that disproportionately live in these countiespeople of color, college graduates, the foreign-born, and unmarried personsrepresent growing segments of the population.
It is possible that the still substantial part of the population that is heavily represented in Trump countiesrural and small-town residents, older Americans, and whites without college educations could keep Republicans competitive if the post-Trump party is able to hold on to this base. But it may not be a viable long-term strategy for them if recent projections hold true.
In many ways, the nation stands at the precipice of a demographically rooted political divide that has been sharpened in ways that are not healthy for our democracy. Lets hope that President Biden can become the healer-in-chief that America now so desperately needs.
Who Were The Oldest Presidents
Before President Biden was sworn in on Wednesday, President Donald J. Trump held the record for the countrys oldest chief executive. He was 70 in January 2017, when he became the 45th president.
Before him, President Ronald Reagan was the oldest president. He was 69 in 1981 when he was inaugurated for his first term.
In a debate with Walter Mondale during his 1984 re-election campaign, Mr. Reagan made light of the issue of age.
I want you to know that also I will not make age an issue of this campaign, he said. I am not going to exploit for political purposes my opponents youth and inexperience.
Mr. Reagan was 77 after his second term, the oldest president to leave office.
More than a century before him, William Henry Harrison held the distinction of being the oldest president at the time, when he was inaugurated in 1841 at age 68. Mr. Harrison, who had caught a cold that developed into pneumonia, died after 32 days in office. He became the first president to die in office and to date, has served the shortest tenure in U.S. presidential history.
At 96, Jimmy Carter is the oldest living former president.
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Demographic Profiles Of Trump And Biden Voters
As was the case in the 2016 and 2018 elections, the Democratic voting coalition in 2020 looked quite different from the Republican coalition in several respects. Overall, Biden voters were younger, more racially and ethnically diverse, and less likely to live in rural areas than Trump voters.
In 2020, 85% of voters who cast a ballot for Trump were White non-Hispanic this compares with just 61% of Biden voters. These differences are roughly consistent with the share of White voters in each partys coalition in 2016.
Nearly two-in-ten voters who cast a ballot for Biden in the 2020 election were Black, identical to the share of Clinton voters in 2016 who were Black. That is significantly higher than the share of Trump voters who were Black .
The community profiles of Trump and Biden voters are similar in some fundamental ways to the previous two elections but more voters who cast ballots for Biden in 2020 say they live in a suburban area compared with Clintons 2016 voters.
Overall, urban voters continue to constitute a larger share of the Democratic coalition compared with the Republican coalition. And rural voters remain a significantly larger portion of the Republican electorate.
However, when comparing Clintons voters with Bidens, there are some significant shifts. In 2016, about half of Clintons voters described their communities as suburban , while 32% said they were from an urban area and 19% were from a rural area.
Trump Mocks Joe Biden As Former Vp Enters 2020 Race
Trump added, “I would never say anyone is too old, but I know they’re all making me look very young, both in terms of age and I think in terms of energy. I think you people know that better than anybody.”
Trump also had dubbed the former vice president “Sleepy Joe” within hours of his announcement Thursday that he was joining the 2020 race, and called him someone whose “intelligence” had been “long in doubt.”
Biden on Friday said, “That’s the first time I’ve ever been referenced that way, it’s usually the other end: hyper Joe.”
The two septuagenarians have sparred before. At a Florida rally in March 2018, Biden spoke out against sexual assault and blasted Trump for his controversial Access Hollywood comments about grabbing womens genitals without their consent.
“A guy who ended up becoming our national leader said, ‘I can grab a woman anywhere and she likes it, Biden said. “If we were in high school, I’d take him behind the gym and beat the hell out of him.”
Trump shot back in a tweet: “Crazy Joe Biden is trying to act like a tough guy…He doesnt know me, but he would go down fast and hard, crying all the way. Don’t threaten people Joe!”
“I see that you are on the job and presidential, as always,” Biden tweeted.
Biden also rejected criticism that his apology to Anita Hill, the law professor who accused Clarence Thomas of sexual harassment during his Supreme Court nomination process, was insufficient.
But, he added, “I don’t think I treated her badly.”
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Why Are Older Voters Abandoning Trump For Biden It’s More Than Coronavirus
Swing-state general election polls show a troubling trend for President Trump: Older Americans prefer Joe Biden over the president, a stark reversal from 2016 that, if the trend holds, could give Biden an edge in November.
An April Quinnipiac poll of registered Florida voters found that of those age 65 and older, Biden had support from 52% and Trump had support from 42%, while Biden leads Trump among all age groups by 4 points. In 2016, exit polls found Trump won the age group in Florida by 17 points.
In Wisconsin, a Marquette University Law School poll from early May found Biden ahead of Trump by 3 points among all age groups and 18 points ahead of Trump among voters aged 60 and up. Trump won Wisconsin voters age 65 and up by 1 point and voters ages 45 to 64 by 15 points, exit polls found.
A pair of April Fox News polls was less specific with age groups but similarly found that Biden led with baby boomers in Pennsylvania by 7 points and in Michigan by 18 points, while Biden led among all voters in the states by 8% in each state.
The reasons why older voters are turning away from the president, though, is up for debate.
Some argue that the coronavirus crisis has damaged Trump.
Several data points boost that argument.
National polls from the Economist/YouGov found that Trumps net approval rating for his handling of the coronavirus crisis among voters aged 65 and up was plus-9% in but fell to plus-4% in May.
There Are Unexpected Strengths To An Aging Mind
Come November, well have two septuagenarian candidates facing off. If theyre not geezers, theyre geezer-adjacent. Should we be worried?
A presidents schedule requires fortitude, patience, and intense concentration. A typical day includes a series of high-level meetings and events, including briefings by Cabinet members and White House staff, meetings with congressional and foreign leaders, and delivering remarks at various press events. There are official visits to important allied countries, international meetings such as the United Nations General Assembly each fall, and political events in key states. The president signs legislation but is also the chief executive of the largest employer in the US, a diplomat, and commander in chief of the armed forces. Its a grueling job physically and cognitively, and its natural to question whether there is an upper age limit on meeting such demands.
Looking at the health of former presidents doesnt necessarily provide any answers. Our presidents have ranged widely in age, and age hasnt always correlated with mental and physical fitness. George W. Bush was up at 5:15 each morning and in bed by 9 pm. But Bill Clinton, one of our younger presidents at just 46 when elected, had a quadruple bypass operation on his heart just three years after leaving office. Our oldest president before Donald Trump, Ronald Reagan, who was elected at 69, was diagnosed with Alzheimers four years after he left office.
Daniel J. Levitin
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Misogyny And Allegations Of Sexual Misconduct
Trump has a history of insulting and belittling women when speaking to media and on social media. He made lewd comments, demeaned women’s looks, and called them names like ‘dog’, ‘crazed, ‘crying lowlife’, ‘face of a pig’, or ‘horseface’.
In October 2016, two days before the second presidential debate, a 2005 “hot mic” recording surfaced in which Trump was heard bragging about kissing and groping women without their consent, saying “when you’re a star, they let you do it, you can do anything… grab ’em by the pussy.” The incident’s widespread media exposure led to Trump’s first public apology during the campaign and caused outrage across the political spectrum.
At least twenty-six women have publicly accused Trump of sexual misconduct as of September 2020, including his then-wife Ivana. There were allegations of rape, violence, being kissed and groped without consent, looking under women’s skirts, and walking in on naked women. In 2016, he denied all accusations, calling them “false smears,” and alleged there was a conspiracy against him.