Donald Trump’s Approval Rating Plunges To Lowest Point In Over A Year: Poll
Donald Trump’s positive approval rating is at its lowest point in more than a year, whereas President Joe Biden is seeing his highest score in months, according to a poll.
A survey released by NBC News found that Trump currently has a 54 percent negative approval rating, with a 34 percent positive approval.
Trump had the same 54 percent negative approval rating in an August NBC News poll, but with a slightly higher positive approval of 36 percent.
In comparison, Trump also had a 36 percent positive approval rating in May and March 2022, 37 percent in January 2022, and 38 percent in August and October 2021.
The former president’s overall favorability rating of 54 percent positive and 34 percent negative has not been as low since an April 2021 NBC poll, when he recorded 55 percent negative and 32 percent positive numbers.
The poll also found that while Biden’s overall approval rating is still underwater, he is currently seeing the highest positive score in nearly a year.
Biden’s latest NBC favorability rating has him at 45 percent positiveup 3 points from last month and the highest it has been since October 2021and 52 percent negative.
Elsewhere, the poll revealed that voters are currently split when asked who they back in the midterms, with the GOP and Democrat Party at 46 percent when voters asked who they believe should control Congress.
Biden More Trusted Than Putin And Xi Less Trusted Than Merkel
Publics express much more confidence in Biden than in Russian President Vladimir Putin or Chinese President Xi Jinping. Biden also fares well in comparison with French President Emmanuel Macron, but his ratings tend to trail those of German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
A median of 77% have confidence in Merkel to do the right thing in world affairs. She receives somewhat higher ratings in the Netherlands, Sweden, Spain, Belgium, France, New Zealand and Australia than in her home country, though a large majority of Germans still express confidence in the chancellor. Of the 16 publics surveyed, Greece is the only one where fewer than half hold this view. Faith in Merkel has also increased since the summer of 2020 in six of the 12 countries where data is available for both years.
A median of 63% have confidence in Macron when it comes to his handling of world affairs. Roughly eight-in-ten or more hold this view in Greece and Sweden. As with Merkel, Macrons ratings in his home country are positive, but more subdued than in other publics 53% of people in France trust the French president to do what is right in international affairs.
Medians of only around one-in-five express confidence in Putin or Xi. Singapore and Greece are the only countries where more than half trust either president 55% in both Greece and Singapore say they have confidence in Putin, and 70% in Singapore say the same of Xi.
What To Watch For
How Bidens popularity among Democrats will affect the midterms. Recent polling has suggested Republicans are more enthusiastic to vote in November, and Democrats declining view of the presidents job performance could result in more on the left deciding to stay home. There are factors that could change that, however, such as if the Supreme Court rolls back abortion rights by overturning Roe v. Wade, which Democratic strategists are hoping will be a catalyst to get more of their base to the polls.
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Democrats Get A Reminder: Their Base Is Not Very Liberal
The other big political story of this week happened about as far away from Washington, DC, as you can get in the contiguous United States. Progressive San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin got recalled on Tuesday night. At the same time, in the nonpartisan primary for Los Angeles mayor, progressive US Rep. Karen Bass was forced into a November runoff by businessman Rick Caruso.
Both results showed the potency of a tough-on-crime message, even in Democratic strongholds, as I discussed earlier this week.
But they also demonstrate that Democrats overall arent anywhere near as liberal as many progressives wish they were.
Take a look at a CNN/SSRS poll from earlier this year. Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, 64% identified as moderate or conservative. Just 17% said they were very liberal, with the remainder indicating they were somewhat liberal.
Other polling isnt nearly as dramatic, though it makes the same point. Summer 2021 data from the Pew Research Center poll for instance showed that 15% of Democrats were very liberal, while 52% were either moderate , conservative or very conservative . The 2020 general election exit poll showed that just 42% of Biden voters were liberal, while 58% were moderate or conservative.
Its no wonder then that even in cities like Los Angeles and San Francisco, which Biden won by over 50 points, progressives are far from shoo-ins.
Abortion A Contentious Issue
Abortion is at the forefront of national conversation as a draft Supreme Court opinionwas leaked that suggests the conservative majority may overturn a court case that ruled that people have a constitutional right to obtain an abortion.
The draft majority opinion, written by conservativeJustice Samuel Alito, attacks the landmark 1973Roe v. Wade decisionas incorrectly decided. A final opinion is expected to be published in late June.
Among Tennesseans surveyed, 48 percent identified as pro-choice, and 50 percent identified as pro-life. Overall, 36 percent of respondents said abortion should be legal in all cases. Seventy percent of Democrats polled favored abortion being legal, while only 8 percent of Republicans prefer pro-choice legislation.
Overall, while there is a strong partisan divide on this issue, only a minority of Tennesseans, including Republicans, want to make all abortion illegal. There is strong support for having abortion be either completely legal or legal under some conditions, such as in cases of rape and incest and when the health of the mother is at stake.
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Trump Approval Rating By State 2022
The presidential job approval ratings in the U.S. were introduced in the late 1930s by George Gallup to gauge public support for the president during their term. Approval ratings are determined by polling given to a sample of people.
Like most surveys, poll results may be inaccurate due to samples that self-select. However, statisticians generally accept the approval rating as a factual indicator of the peoples feelings about the president.
As of April 2020, President Trumps approval rate is 46.0% and his disapproval is at 49.6%.
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According to this weeks poll, Mr Bidens net approval rating is a dismal minus nine points. Although this is better than Mr Trumps score of -15 at this point in his presidency, it is far below Mr Obamas plus six. And support for Mr Biden is deteriorating rapidly. His net approval rating has fallen by more than ten points since his 200th day in office, just over two months ago. Mr Obamas fell by only four, and Mr Trumps by just one, over the corresponding period .
It is hard to know exactly what accounts for the slump. Some pin the blame on the surge in covid-19 cases and deaths over the summer, fuelled by the highly contagious Delta variant. After all, voters elected Mr Biden in large part because he was seen as better equipped than Mr Trump to tackle the pandemic. Others think Democrats have become disaffected with the president because he has failed to pass key parts of his agenda, including a bipartisan infrastructure bill and a multi-trillion-dollar social-spending package, which would fund health care, education, climate change and other progressive priorities.
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Us President Joe Biden’s Approval Rating Tumble And Go Down Below What Former Us Prez Donald Trump Ever Managed To Achieve
Facing heat from several quarters, US President Joe Biden’s popularity has dipped spectacularly. Now, his approval ratings have taken a tumble as well. Reportedly, Biden’s current approval ratings fare lower than what his infamous predecessor, Donald Trump, ever managed to achieve during his four tumultuous years in the office, where he was impeached twice.
The poll conducted by CNN shows that Biden’s approval rating stood at 38 per cent while 62 per cent disapproved of his presidentship. On the economic front, Biden has an approval rating of only 30 per cent. The figures become grim when one notes that Trump’s lowest economic approval rating was 41 per cent which came way back in 2018.
Moreover, ahead of the midterms, the swing states haven’t been kind to Biden either. His net approval ratings in Ohio , Arizona , Wisconsin and Pennsylvania paint a grim picture and suggest that the battle may be uphill.
Democrats starting to lose confidence
While the palpable public anger is understandable, it appears that Biden is also losing the confidence of his colleagues. Reportedly, the President’s approval rating for the handling of the economy has dwindled from 71 per cent, earlier this year to 62 per cent amongst the Democrats in the recent survey.
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A federal judge blocked much of Floridas new restrictive voting law Thursday, but the ruling will likely be appealed, NBCs Jane C. Timm reports.
The Senate is one step closer to an agreement on funding for a Covid relief package.
Meta, formerly known as Facebook, hired a Republican firm to spread negative stories smearing rival platform TikTok, The Washington Post reports.
A dozen House Republicans joined Democrats to pass a bill capping the out-of-pocket cost of insulin at $35 per month. Now, the bill heads to the Senate.
The war in Ukraine continues as Russia abandons the highly contaminated Chernobyl nuclear power plant and Ukranians brace for renewed attacks, according to AP
Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., plans to vote against confirming Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court, despite his vote just last year to elevate her to a D.C. appeals court.
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Who Is Following The Jan 6 Hearings
The hearings are unlikely to be a factor in shaping Republican views because most say they are paying little to no attention to the investigation. According to this latest poll, 58 percent of Americans said they were paying at least some attention to the hearings, while another 41 percent said they were paying little to no attention, including 56 percent of Republicans. Democrats are the most reliable audience for the Jan. 6 hearings, with 80 percent following along.
Its almost an article of faith for a Republican to say, Im not paying attention to this stuff, Ayres said.
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No matter how earth-shattering these hearings are, there is also little to suggest they will inform the way people vote during the November midterms. In fact, only 9 percent of U.S. adults said it will be top of mind for them this fall, including 17 percent of Democrats and 2 percent of Republicans. A far larger share of Americans 37 percent said they care most about inflation, including 57 percent of Republicans and 42 percent of independents.
For Democrats, abortion ranked as the top concern. Following the Supreme Courts overturning of Roe v. Wade and the loss of federal protections for the medical procedure in June, 29 percent of Democrats and 18 percent of Americans overall picked abortion as what matters most to them.
Chart by Megan McGrew/PBS NewsHour
The Sample And Margin Of Error
Pollsters cant realistically contact every American adult throughout the country and ask their opinion on a given issue. Instead, they try to contact a representative sampleusually anywhere between 1,000 and 2,000 individualsthat accurately represents the countrys population as a whole. Pollsters, with the help of statisticians, demographers, and data experts, use a variety of techniques to create a representative sample. This typically involves using probability formulas and algorithms to ensure random sampling and to increase the likelihood of contacting an accurate cross-section of the U.S. adult population. Some pollsters also create panels of respondents that they believe reflect the actual population and poll them repeatedly over a span of time. These polls are usually called tracking polls. Oftentimes, pollsters weigh their respondents to account for various demographic measurements. For example, a pollster might weigh more heavily the responses from a specific demographic group if that group was poorly represented in the random sample in relation to the countrys estimated demographic composition. The same might be done if a group appears to be overrepresented.
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Even If It Were True 94 Percent Republican Approval Would Not Be A Record
Its not the case that Trumps approval rating among Republicans is 94 percent, but even if it were, it wouldnt be the record he claims.
As Politifact detailed in June, when Trump claimed during a news conference with then-British Prime Minister Theresa May that I have a 90 to 94 percent approval rating, as of this morning, in the Republican Party an all-time record, he was discounting George W. Bushs GOP approval rating in the immediate aftermath of 9/11, which hit 99 percent. In fact, Trumps Republican approval rating during his first 30 months in office lagged behind not just George W. Bush, but George H.W. Bush as well.
So Trumps claim is a lie about a lie. But that sort of thing is par for the course for him.
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Two Different Paths To 41%
President Biden and former president Trump dont have a lot in common. But, they share the inauspicious distinction of having the lowest approval ratings in modern history for a president 500 days into his first term. The fivethirtyeight.com tracker has Bidens net approval rating at a dismal -13.3, two points lower than Trumps -11 in June of 2018.
But, the paths they took to these dismal ratings are very different.
Trump began his presidency with little support from independents and some skepticism among his own base. By the 2018 midterm election, Trump had consolidated his base, but remained deeply unpopular with independent voters. Meanwhile, Biden started his tenure with strong support from his partisans and decent approval ratings among independent voters. But, Biden lost altitude with both in the late summer/early fall of last year and has yet to regain that support.
The question now is whether the different routes their subpar approval ratings can tell us anything about the likely outcome of the November midterm.
However, opinions of Trump among independents started low and remained low throughout Trumps first two years in office. Gallup polling from the spring of 2017 found Trumps job approval ratings among independents at an anemic 36 percent. By the summer of 2018 they stayed in that same range . By October, just 38 percent of independents approved of the job Trump was doing in office.
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Bidens Approval Rating Just Dipped Under One Marker You Dont Want To Be Below
President Joe Bidens job approval rating in July is his lowest since taking office, with support among independent voters steadily dwindling, according to the latest PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll.
If independents serve as a weathervane for public opinion, Biden faces strong headwinds of dissent. In July 2021, nearly half of all independent registered voters said they approved of Bidens performance so far. Now, nearly half 46 percent say they strongly disapprove of Bidens presidency. Overall Biden support from independents has dropped by 20 percentage points, a trend that could weigh down Democratic candidates running for Congress this November.
In the new poll, about a third of U.S. adults 36 percent say they like how Biden is leading the nation. Another 57 percent said they disapprove of his performance his highest disapproval rating yet. Looking at race, income, geography, age or education, no group mustered majority approval of Biden as president.
Chart by Megan McGrew/PBS NewsHour
Party affiliation offers the lone exception, with three-quarters of Democrats and people who said they voted for Biden in 2020 endorsing the president. But that support has slid substantially during Bidens time in office, down from 94 percent shortly after his inauguration.
Chart by Megan McGrew/PBS NewsHour
Chart by Megan McGrew/PBS NewsHour
The question is: How low can he go, and how much can Democratic candidates outperform him?
How Trumps Second Impeachment Will Work
To be sure, the national polls underestimated Trumps performance in the national election, which he lost by 4 percentage points after trailing in the RealClearPolitics average by 7 points and the FiveThirtyEight average by 8 points.
But the latest polls conducted over the past week all show significant drops in support for Trump from the previous measurements with one notable exception: Rasmussen Reports. The Republican-leaning automated pollster, which has typically produced stronger results for Trump, has shown that the presidents approval ratings have been virtually unaffected by last weeks events.
Trumps final approval rating is far from settled, given the congressional sprint to impeach him in the closing week of his presidency. But he is poised to go down as one of the most unpopular presidents upon leaving office.
Barack Obamas approval rating rose in the final weeks of his presidency, following Trumps upset victory in the 2016 election. According to theRealClearPolitics average, Obamas approval rating finished at 57 percent, rising about 5 points between the election and Trumps inauguration in January 2017.
Trump is likely to finish closer to Bushs final ratings: 34 percent in the finalGallup poll the best historical record for modern presidential approval and 29 percent in the closingRealClearPolitics average.
More details on the poll and its methodology can be found in these two documents:Toplines |Crosstabs
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