The Idea That Trumps Big Lie Is Hurting Himself Is A Convenient Myth
From time to time, a point of view will make its way from the mouths of official sources to the ears of reporters often enough that it takes on the status of official fact. One such claim you have probably come across is the belief that Donald Trump is sabotaging his own campaign by obsessing over the 2020 election.
Trump remains fixated on the stolen 2020 election notes an aside in Jonathan Swans harrowing report on Trumps plans to impose political discipline on the bureaucracy: He cannot stop talking about it, no matter how many allies advise him it would serve his political interests to move on. This notion often lurks in the background of political reporting on the Republican Party. Those Republicans who support Trump but are one step away from his inner circle find the scene that unfolded Tuesday night to be counterproductive, reports one typical passage in Politico. At a time when the ex-president could be focused on propelling the Republican Party toward the upcoming elections, Trump is still anchored down by conspiracies and anger over losing the last one.
You can already see this argument taking shape in the prospective Republican nominating contest. An aide to Mike Pence tells the Washington Post that the former veep would likely make the point that Trump is the only person who lost to Biden. For Trump to concede this point to admit to being a loser would be devastating to his candidacy. Thats why he cant concede it.
Opinionbernie Sanders’ Fans Can’t Be Allowed To Poison Another Democratic Primary With Personal Attacks
To put it bluntly, Biden has everything he needs to run against Trump and actually win he just needs to officially throw his hat in the ring and convince others in the field to move aside so as to not fall victim to a tough primary the likes of which the Republican Party saw in 2008, 2012 and 2016. All the resources of the Democratic party ought to go toward defeating Trump, not fighting one another.
As a former Republican voter who denounced the party once Trump became its nominee, Ive often been asked who my ideal candidate would be, and the answer has always been rather simple: A ticket with Joe Biden at the top, because he is a no-nonsense guy who understands the needs of everyday Americans and knows how to make the government work for the people.
Not only does Bidens likability and down-to-earth personality make him the ideal candidate, he is the right candidate for the moment and that moment is a dire one. Its time to return common sense, bipartisanship and stability back to our government and to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue in particular.
Rather than crowding the field, Democrats should encourage someone like Biden to run if theyre serious about taking back the White House, or they will simply tear themselves apart and hand the election to Trump on a platter.
Candidates Clash Over The Ambition Of Their Plans
The candidates engaged in a now familiar debate over the varying costs of their health care programs, particularly the Medicare for All plan embraced by Sanders and Warren. Klobuchar, who supports building on the Affordable Care Act, called Medicare for All a pipe dream.
Sanders insisted his campaign proposals would not bankrupt the country even though it would double federal spending over the next decade and insisted that his transition fund would ease the pain of likely job losses in towns like Des Moines where the insurance is central to the economy.
Warren challenged Buttigieg on his plans to make Medicare for All one among many options.
The numbers that the mayor is offering dont add up, she said.
Buttigieg, in response, rejected the notion that his plan was too small.
We have to move past Washington mentality that suggests that the bigness of plans only consists of how many trillions of dollars they put through the Treasury, he said.
Buttigieg and Klobuchar also raised their objections to Warrens and Sanders respective plans providing free college for everyone.
Klobuchar argued that the money would be better directed to job training for the professions that will face shortages in the future, like home health care, nursing assistants and electricians.
Businessman Tom Steyer was asked as a billionaire whether he would have supported free college for his children.
This story has been updated with the events of Tuesdays debate.
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Top 5 Democrats With The Best Chance To Beat Trump
Well rank each Democrat based on their current odds, display whether their chances have been going up or down since January 1, 2019, and provide some insight into the top 5 most likely Trump challengers. Some candidates didnt have odds to start the year or currently dont have odds at all and well indicate when thats the case.
1. Joe Biden
- Then: +1400
- % Change: +13.33%
- The former Vice President saw his odds skyrocket after he officially made his announcement in late April. Biden is now not only the Democratic favorite but public money has also made him the biggest riser on the board since 2019 began. His national recognition and huge favorability Rust Belt where Trump won big in 2016 makes Biden the biggest threat to Trumps re-election bid.
2. Bernie Sanders
- Then: +1400
- % Change: +5.83%
- Sen. Bernie Sanders comes second and is not far behind Biden. The Vermont US senator gained national attention in 2016 for his Democratic Socialism platform and became Hillary Clintons biggest challenger for the partys nomination. This time, the public knows who Bernie is, which is why hes received more first-quarter donations than any other Democratic candidate.
3. Kamala Harris
4. Pete Buttigieg
5. Elizabeth Warren
Michael Bloombergs Past And The 2020 Us Presidential Election
At this point in United States history, the American people have gone from wary to weary of Wall Streets financial shenanigans and the economic fallout that it has spread across the American economy. We dont need no stinking bankers in the White House.
In 2016, Hillary Clintons notoriously lucrative private paid speeches to Wall Street firms were leaked, and her cozy position with Wall Street banks was a major issue in the campaign that alienated voters from her. They want someone whos for them, not Wall Street.
Of course, Michael Bloomberg supported the bailout in 2008 . He said: It isnt that they are too big to fail, but that they are too important to fail.
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Who Has The Best Shot At Beating Trump Who Knows
The difficult choice facing Democratic primary voters looks even more inscrutable after last weeks first round of party presidential debates.
Nothing matters more to Democratic voters than picking a nominee with the best chance of beating President Donald Trump, who many party activists consider an existential threat to their values and priorities. But the question of which Democrat is most electable against Trump looks murkier and more contested than ever after last weeks debates.
In the races early stages, the electability argument mostly benefited former Vice President Joe Biden, polls found. But he faced new doubts after his wobbly performance in last weeks second night of the debates, and in a new CNN poll conducted after the debates, his support had dropped 10 percentage points from the last survey, in May.
Sens. Kamala Harris of California and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts gained new fans with their forceful debate performances, and surged to second and third place behind Biden in the new CNN survey, released Monday. But they also immediately faced questions about whether their embrace of unabashedly liberal positions during the sessions in particular, banning private health insurance, though Harris, as shes done before, rhetorically obscured her position in the aftermath had made them less competitive in a general election.
Mike Pence’s Chances Of Beating Donald Trump In 2024 According To Polls
Neither former President Donald Trump nor former Vice President Mike Pence has declared he will make a run for the White House in 2024, but there has been enough speculation regarding both men that pollsters have gauged public opinion about a potential matchup.
So far, survey results indicate Pence would not fare well against Trump.
On Thursday, the House committee investigating the January 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol is planning to focus on allegations that Trump tried to pressure Pence into not certifying the results of the 2020 presidential election. Trump’s alleged actions are being examined as one of the main potential causes of the riot, during which threats were reportedly made against Pence’s life.
Pence and Trump have had a strained relationship since leaving the White House because of the former vice president’s decision not to interfere with the certification of President Joe Biden‘s election victory. In the summer of 2021, Pence called January 6 “a dark day” during a Republican dinner and added that he and Trump may never see “eye to eye” on the event, according to an NBC News report from the time. Meanwhile, Trump said in an interview last month he was “very disappointed” in Pence for not supporting his claims of election fraud, which are not backed by any evidence.
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Betting Odds For President Donald Trump
Before we weigh each of the Democrats chances of beating Trump, we need to look at the odds for Trump himself and determine if his chances are rising or falling.
Donald Trump
- Then: +150
- % Change: +7.62%
- Trump has been favored to win re-election since the start of the year and his chances of winning have continued to rise in 2019. This is likely due to two factors: 1) Were slowly getting closer to the election and incumbents always have an edge and 2) The public money does not believe he will be impeached, which gives him a clear path to be on the ballot as the Republican nominee when the 2020 election rolls around whereas the Democratic nomination is much more uncertain.
Cracks In The Biden Foundation
So far, polling shows that Biden has benefited the most from the focus on electability. In a national mid-June Monmouth University poll, Biden significantly led the field when likely Democratic primary voters were asked to rank each candidates chance, on a 1-10 scale, of beating Trump. Fifty-nine percent of Democratic voters ranked Bidens chance of beating Trump in the three highest categories on that scale .
No one else finished that close: 39% ranked Sanders in the top three categories, 32% Warren, 24% Harris and just 17% South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg. As usual in this years polls of Democratic voters, Bidens advantage on electability in that survey was especially pronounced with older voters.
But in last weeks debate Biden delivered a performance almost universally regarded as unsteady, when he was challenged most forcefully by Harris on his record on school busing during the 1970s but also by Sen. Michael Bennet on the deal he cut in 2012 with Republican Mitch McConnell during the fiscal cliff triggered by the expiration of the tax cuts that passed under President George W. Bush.
Assuming Biden is able to get his act together, he has a real base , I believe, grounded in historical dynamics that make it very hard for Harris to make further gains, Greenberg said. At some point Biden is going to push back, maybe using the President , by saying Im carrying on his legacy.
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Who Won The Presidential Debates
Donald Trump and Joe Biden went head-to-head in two live TV debates.
The first, on 29 September, was a chaotic affair, with Mr Trump’s combative approach stamping out any chance of a real debate.
A CBS News/YouGov poll taken straight afterwards suggested it was a good night for Mr Biden.
Of those who watched, 48% said Mr Biden was the winner while 41% went for Mr Trump – a similar split to national polling averages. Nearly 70% of people said the debate made them feel “annoyed”.
In the second debate, on 22 October, organisers introduced a mute button to help police the arguments.
But it was a much more restrained President Trump on show and there was a much greater focus on the policies of the two candidates.
While that seemed to help Mr Trump somewhat, snap polls still suggested viewers thought Mr Biden’s performance was more impressive.
A CNN poll found 53% of viewers thought the Democrat had done a better job in the debate, while 39% went with Mr Trump.
A YouGov snap poll was similar, with 54% saying Mr Biden had won compared to 35% for the president.
So while Mr Trump put in a better performance, it’s unlikely to have been enough to change the balance of the race on its own.
Opinionkamala Harris’ Candidacy Requires A Nuanced Debate About Her Record Race And Gender Is The Left Ready
When it comes to Bidens likability, he soars among almost every demographic and is more favorable than Donald Trump . However, Biden also sits atop all the potential 2020 candidates as the only candidate with a favorability over 50 percent, according to late December Quinnipiac polling.
Biden has a track record of working across the aisle to get things done. Biden was the guy who negotiated the fiscal cliff deal with Senator Mitch McConnell as well as a major part of the 2010 deal that extended the Bush tax cuts, because he doesnt view Republicans as enemies, he knows he needs to work with them in order to get things done. This is exactly the right tone that needs to be set on the campaign trail especially as Republican voters in general and Trump supporters in particular feel vilified by the media.
Just this week, he responded to criticism of himself in the New York Times for being bipartisan saying, I read in the New York Times today that one of my problems if I were to run for president, I like Republicans. OK, well bless me father for I have sinned.
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Us Election 2020 Polls: Who Is Ahead
BBC News
Voters in America will decide on 3 November whether Donald Trump remains in the White House for another four years.
The Republican president is being challenged by Democratic Party nominee Joe Biden, who is best known as Barack Obama’s vice-president but has been in US politics since the 1970s.
As election day approaches, polling companies will be trying to gauge the mood of the nation by asking voters which candidate they prefer.
We’ll be keeping track of those polls here and trying to work out what they can and can’t tell us about who will win the election.
An Examination Of The 2020 Electorate Based On Validated Voters
By Ruth Igielnik, Scott Keeter and Hannah Hartig
Pew Research Center conducted this study to understand how Americans voted in 2020 and how their turnout and vote choices differed from 2016 and 2018. For this analysis, we surveyed U.S. adults online and verified their turnout in the three general elections using commercial voter files that aggregate official state turnout records. Panelists for whom a record of voting was located are considered validated voters all others are presumed not to have voted.
We surveyed 11,818 U.S. adults online in November 2020, 10,640 adults in November 2018 and 4,183 adults in November and December 2016. The surveys were supplemented with measures taken from annual recruitment and profile surveys conducted in 2018 and 2020. Everyone who took part is a member of Pew Research Centers American Trends Panel , an online survey panel recruited through national, random sampling of telephone numbers or, since 2018, residential addresses. This way nearly all U.S. adults have a chance of selection. The surveys are weighted to be representative of the U.S. adult population by gender, race, ethnicity, partisan affiliation, education, turnout and vote choice in the three elections, and many other characteristics. Read more about the ATPs methodology.
Here are the questions used for this report and its methodology.
Validated voters, defined
Here are some of the other key findings from the analysis:
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Warren Makes The Case A Woman Has The Best Chance To Beat Trump
Sen. Elizabeth Warren made a forceful case in Tuesday nights debate that a woman can win the White House, tackling the unpopular question that has loomed over the presidential race since Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton since 2016 buttressing her argument by pointing to the electoral losses of the men standing alongside her on stage.
Can a woman beat Donald Trump? Look at the men on this stage, Warren said.
Collectively, they have lost 10 elections. The only people on this stage who have won every single election that theyve been in are the women: Amy and me, she said, referring to the only other woman who qualified for the debate stage: Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar.
So true, Klobuchar interjected. So true.
In interviews over the past year, many Democratic voters have voiced anxiety about the prospect of watching Trump take on another female candidate after they witnessed the misogyny and degrading rhetoric that consumed the 2016 campaign.
Warren had a clear opening to address that invisible barrier for female candidates Tuesday night after CNN reported this week that four sources said her longtime ally, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, told her in a private 2018 meeting that a woman couldnt win the presidency during a discussion about the 2020 election.
When? Warren replied.
