Question9 Overall Do You Think Donald Trump Has Had A Mainly Positive Or Mainly Negative Impact On
ADULTS..................................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes NoPositive 41% 84% 4% 45% 48% 35% 37% 58%Negative 51 9 94 47 44 58 60 36DK/NA 8 7 2 8 8 7 4 7 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk HspPositive 33% 36% 47% 49% 57% 45% 50% 12% 37%Negative 56 54 47 49 36 50 44 81 51DK/NA 11 9 6 3 7 5 6 7 12
Nearly All Say Relations With Us Will Stay The Same Or Get Better Over The Next Few Years
When asked whether relations with the U.S. will get better, worse or stay the same over the next few years, a median of 57% across the 16 publics say they will stay the same. While a continuation of current relations with the U.S. is the most common response, a median of 39% say relations will get better and only 5% say they will get worse.
The only place where a majority thinks relations with the U.S. will get better is Germany , where attitudes about the transatlantic alliance have become increasingly pessimistic in recent years. Half of Canadians also say relations with their southern neighbor will get better over the next few years.
In 2017, when this question was asked specifically about then-newly elected President Trump and his effect on bilateral relations, the most common answer was also that they would remain the same. But back then, few said that relations with the U.S. would improve under Trump, and significant portions of the population thought they would deteriorate, including 56% in Germany who said this.
New Marquette Law School National Survey Finds A Third Of The Public And Three
Please note: Complete poll results and methodology information can be found online at law.marquette.edu/poll.
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MILWAUKEE A new Marquette Law School national survey finds that 33% of adults say they do not believe Donald Trump had top secret and other classified material at his Mar-a-Lago estate this summer, while 67% believe he did have such documents. Sixty-one percent of Republicans say he did not have such secret documents, while 39% say he did. In contrast, large majorities of independents and Democrats think Trump had classified material at his Florida home, as shown in Table 1. Table 1: Do you believe Donald Trump had top secret and other classified material or national security documents at his home in Mar-a-Lago this summer? |
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The survey was conducted Sept 7-14, 2022, interviewing 1,448 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-3.4 percentage points.
Most of those who have a favorable view of Trump, regardless of party, do not believe he had secret documents in his possession, while over 80% of those with an unfavorable opinion, regardless of party, say that he did have secret documents. Table 2 shows belief about the documents by party and favorability toward Trump. There are too few Democrats with a favorable opinion of Trump to provide a reliable subsample.
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Favorable to Trump |
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Table 3: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or havent you heard enough yet to have an opinion? . . . Donald Trump
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Trumps Favorability Rating Drops To New Low: Poll
Former President Trumps favorability rating has dropped to a new low after slowly trickling down over the past few months.
A new NBC News poll released Sunday found that 34 percent of registered voters said they have a positive view of Trump, while 54 percent say they have a negative view of him. Trumps favorability rating was at its lowest in April 2021, when his rating fell to 32 percent in the same NBC poll.
The former presidents favorability score is down slightly since last month, with the same 54 percent saying they have a negative view of Trump, but 36 percent saying they had a positive view of him.
While Trumps favorability score has trickled down, President Bidens score has gone up, though only slightly. This month, 45 percent said they approve of the president a 2-point increase since last month.
Contrarily, 52 percent of voters say they disapprove of Biden, which has gone down 3 percentage points since last month.
Pollsters also questioned voters about their views on the different investigations against Trump, specifically asking whether the various investigations should stop or continue. The poll found that 56 percent of voters believe the investigations should continue, while 41 percent say they should stop.
The NBC News poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters between Sept. 9-13, and has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
Some Concerns About Functioning Of Us Democracy
Majorities in New Zealand, Australia, Canada, Sweden and the Netherlands are skeptical of how the U.S. political system functions. On the flip side, majorities in South Korea, Greece, Italy, Japan, Taiwan and Spain express at least some confidence in the American system of government.
However, even among publics where majorities think the U.S. political system works at least somewhat well, this confidence is lukewarm: At most, about a fifth say the American political system functions very well. In most places surveyed, the share who say this is smaller than one-in-ten.
While attitudes are mixed about how well the U.S. political system functions, publics in the advanced economies surveyed are largely skeptical that democracy in the U.S. is a good example for other countries to follow. Across all publics surveyed, no more than about three-in-ten say the U.S. is currently setting a good example of democratic values.
Rather, majorities or pluralities say American democracy used to be a good example but has not been in recent years, and up to about a quarter reject the idea that the U.S. has ever been a good model of democracy.
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Electoral Map Based On Polls
Current as of Map Timestamp
Updated three times daily, this map tracks the electoral vote count for the 2020 presidential election based on polling. The 2016 election margin, rounded to the nearest 1%, is used where there are no polls.
Use the timeline feature to view the map based on the final update each day.
States where the margin is < 5% are shown as toss-up. Leaning is < 10%, likely < 15%. Safe is 15% or higher.
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.
Current
For an interactive map, choose one of the following:
- Click here to go to the 2020 historical interactive map
- Click here to create a 2024 map at the home page
- Click here to edit the map below
Question2 Do You Approve Or Disapprove Of The Way The Republicans In Congress Are Handling Their Job
ADULTS..................................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes NoApprove 23% 51% 6% 22% 24% 23% 18% 30%Disapprove 65 44 90 65 63 67 74 59DK/NA 12 5 4 14 13 11 8 11 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk HspApprove 20% 20% 27% 28% 27% 25% 26% 15% 24%Disapprove 58 69 66 66 62 65 64 76 62DK/NA 22 11 7 6 11 10 11 9 13
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But Many Raise Concerns About Health Of Us Political System
The election of Joe Biden as president has led to a dramatic shift in Americas international image. Throughout Donald Trumps presidency, publics around the world held the United States in low regard, with most opposed to his foreign policies. This was especially true among key American allies and partners. Now, a new Pew Research Center survey of 16 publics finds a significant uptick in ratings for the U.S., with strong support for Biden and several of his major policy initiatives.
This analysis focuses on public opinion of the United States in 16 advanced economies in North America, Europe and the Asia-Pacific region. Views of the U.S. and its president are examined in the context of long-term trend data. The report also explores how people view President Joe Bidens proposed policies and characteristics.
For this report, we use data from nationally representative surveys of 16,254 adults from March 12 to May 26, 2021. All surveys were conducted over the phone with adults in Canada, Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, the UK, Australia, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan.
This study was conducted in places where nationally representative telephone surveys are feasible. Due to the coronavirus outbreak, face-to-face interviewing is not currently possible in many parts of the world.
Here are the questions used for the report, along with responses, and the survey methodology.
Biden More Trusted Than Putin And Xi Less Trusted Than Merkel
Publics express much more confidence in Biden than in Russian President Vladimir Putin or Chinese President Xi Jinping. Biden also fares well in comparison with French President Emmanuel Macron, but his ratings tend to trail those of German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
A median of 77% have confidence in Merkel to do the right thing in world affairs. She receives somewhat higher ratings in the Netherlands, Sweden, Spain, Belgium, France, New Zealand and Australia than in her home country, though a large majority of Germans still express confidence in the chancellor. Of the 16 publics surveyed, Greece is the only one where fewer than half hold this view. Faith in Merkel has also increased since the summer of 2020 in six of the 12 countries where data is available for both years.
A median of 63% have confidence in Macron when it comes to his handling of world affairs. Roughly eight-in-ten or more hold this view in Greece and Sweden. As with Merkel, Macrons ratings in his home country are positive, but more subdued than in other publics 53% of people in France trust the French president to do what is right in international affairs.
Medians of only around one-in-five express confidence in Putin or Xi. Singapore and Greece are the only countries where more than half trust either president 55% in both Greece and Singapore say they have confidence in Putin, and 70% in Singapore say the same of Xi.
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Bidens Approval Rises To 45%
The NBC News poll also finds 45% of registered voters approving of President Bidens overall job , versus 52% who disapprove .
Its Bidens highest approval rating in the poll since last October.
The improvement for Biden has come primarily from core parts of the Democratic base, including women , Latinos and voters 18-34 .
Still, Biden is underwater with other key demographic groups like independents , suburban voters and seniors .
45% has always traditionally been a flashing warning sign for an incumbent American president, said McInturff, the GOP pollster.
On the issues, 42% of all voters approve of the presidents handling of foreign policy, 40% approve of his handling of the economy, 36% approve of his handling of border security and immigration, and 30% approve of his handling of the cost of living.
Asked whether Bidens policies have helped or hurt economic conditions, 47% of voters say theyve hurt, 23% say theyve helped and 28% say they havent made much of a difference.
Demographic And Political Profiles Of Clinton And Trump Voters
As the pattern of the votes implies, the coalitions that supported the two major party nominees were very different demographically. These differences mirror the broad changes in the compositions of the two parties: The Republican and Democratic coalitions are more dissimilar demographically than at any point in the past two decades.
In 2016, a 61% majority of those who said they voted for Clinton were women, while Trump voters were more evenly divided between men and women. Whites constituted nearly nine-in-ten of Trumps supporters, compared with a smaller majority who voted for Clinton. Clintons voters also were younger than Trumps on average .
Among Clinton voters, 43% were college graduates, compared with 29% of Trump voters. And while non-college whites made up a majority of Trumps voters , they constituted only about a quarter of Clintons .
About a third of Clinton voters lived in urban areas, versus just 12% among Trump voters. By contrast, 35% of Trump voters said they were from a rural area among Clinton voters, 19% lived in a rural community.
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Religious Affiliation And Attendance
As in previous elections, voters in 2016 were sharply divided along religious lines. Protestants constituted about half of the electorate and reported voting for Trump over Clinton by a 56% to 39% margin. Catholics were more evenly divided 52% reported voting for Trump, while 44% said they backed Clinton. Conversely, a solid majority of the religiously unaffiliated atheists, agnostics and those who said their religion was nothing in particular said they voted for Clinton over Trump .
Within the Protestant tradition, voters were divided by race and evangelicalism. White evangelical Protestants, who constituted one out of every five voters, consistently have been among the strongest supporters of Republican candidates and supported Trump by a 77% to 16% margin.
This is nearly identical to the 78% to 16% advantage that Mitt Romney held over Barack Obama among white evangelicals in Pew Research Center polling on the eve of the 2012 presidential election.
Among white mainline Protestants 57% said they voted for Trump and 37% reported voting for Clinton. Clinton won overwhelmingly among black Protestants .
White non-Hispanic Catholics supported Trump by a ratio of about two-to-one , while Hispanic Catholics favored Clinton by an even larger 78% to 19% margin.
Question23 Do You Consider What Happened At The Us Capitol On January 6th An Attack On The Government Or Not
ADULTS..................................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes NoYes/Attack on gov't 59% 29% 93% 56% 53% 66% 65% 49%No 35 66 5 40 42 29 32 44DK/NA 5 5 3 5 5 5 3 7 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk HspYes/Attack on gov't 63% 64% 55% 56% 46% 63% 55% 83% 57%No 31 30 42 39 49 32 40 13 39DK/NA 7 6 2 5 5 5 5 4 4
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Lower White Support For Trump In Pennsylvania Michigan And Wisconsin
The three crucial northern battlegrounds of both 2016 and 2020 are the relatively white states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Each one flipped for Biden this election.
Exit polls in all three states indicate that more Democratic-favorable margins among different white blocs between 2016 and 2020 contributed to Bidens wins. See Figure 4 and .
Beginning with Pennsylvania, it is clear that white college graduatesboth male and femalevoted more Democratic in 2020 than in 2016. Particularly noteworthy is the change for white male college graduates , while white female college graduates increased their Democratic support from 14% to 19%.
Pennsylvanias seniors, too, registered a smaller Republican margin, while white noncollege men and women remained fairly strongly Republican. But the shift among white college-educated Pennsylvanians toward Democrats, strong nonwhite support, and greater support among young people were enough to seal Bidens win.
Question1a Do You Approve Or Disapprove Of The Way Joe Biden Is Handling His Job As President Combined With: Do You Strongly Or Somewhat Approve/disapprove
ADULTS..................................................... WHITE........ 4 YR COLL DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes NoApprove strongly 18% 1% 45% 12% 13% 23% 27% 10%Approve smwht 18 2 34 16 16 20 23 14Disapprove smwht 8 8 6 10 8 8 6 6Disapprove strongly 43 87 5 46 49 37 40 58DK/NA 12 3 9 16 13 12 4 11 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk HspApprove strongly 8% 18% 20% 31% 11% 21% 16% 36% 18%Approve smwht 23 20 17 12 15 18 17 28 14Disapprove smwht 18 4 4 5 6 6 6 8 12Disapprove strongly 29 46 51 48 58 46 52 14 39DK/NA 22 11 9 5 10 8 9 13 17
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Poll: Biden Now Leads Trump By Widest Margin In 6 Months
As President Bidens approval rating continues to bounce back from its summertime lows, a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll now shows him leading former President Donald Trump in a 2024 rematch by the widest margin since March.
The survey of 1,634 U.S. adults was conducted from Sept. 2 to Sept. 6 immediately after a combative primetime speech last Thursday, in which Biden blasted Trump and the MAGA Republicans as extremists who threat the very foundations of our republic.
The poll found that if the next presidential election were held today, 48% of registered voters would choose Biden, while 42% would choose Trump. Bidens new 6-point lead is 3 points larger than his edge in the previous Yahoo News/YouGov survey from late August and 4 points better than his average lead across all Yahoo News/YouGov surveys conducted between April and July . The polls margin of error is approximately 2.6%.
The last time Biden led Trump in a Yahoo News/YouGov poll by 6 percentage points or more among registered voters was in March 2022 . The time before that was in May 2021 . Notably, Bidens support today matches those previous highs.
None of which means Biden is a lock to defeat Trump in 2024. The election is still years away, and Trump won in 2016 despite losing the national popular vote . Meanwhile, more Americans still disapprove than approve of Bidens performance in office.
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