After Key Races In Georgia Pennsylvania And Other States Heres What Weve Learned
- G.O.P. Governors Emboldened: Many Republican governors are in strong political shape. And some are openly opposing Mr. Trump.
- Voter Fraud Claims Fade: Republicans have been accepting their primary victories with little concern about the voter fraud they once falsely claimed caused Mr. Trumps 2020 loss.
- The Politics of Guns: Republicans have been far more likely than Democrats to use messaging about guns to galvanize their base in the midterms. Heres why.
The Trump-first faction had accounted for 54 percent of Republican voters in October 2020. The erosion since then spanned every demographic: men and women, moderates and conservatives, people of every age.
Among the biggest swings was in a group widely seen as Mr. Trumps most loyal constituency: white Republicans without college degrees, who went from 62 percent identifying first with Mr. Trump to 36 percent.
Frank Luntz, a prominent G.O.P. pollster, said Republican support for the former president is moving in complex ways simultaneously both intensifying and diminishing.
The Trump group is smaller today than it has been in five years, but it is even more intense, more passionate and more unforgiving of his critics, Mr. Luntz said. As people slowly drift away which they are those who are still with him are even stronger in their support.
On stage, Mr. Abbott himself faced shouts of RINO for Republican in name only and some boos, which he overwhelmed by leading the crowd in a chant of Lets go Trump!
For All Of Bidens Troubles Hes Still More Popular Than Trump In The Nbc News Poll
WASHINGTON If its Friday … Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine are expected to resume. … President Biden delivers remarks on the March jobs report. … A Climate group goes on offense, per NBCs Benjy Sarlin. …. Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., pushes Biden not to end Title 42. … NBC News poll shows Ukraines Zelenskyy with favorable/unfavorable numbers that rival Pope John Paul IIs. … Vladimir Putin has numbers that match Saddam Husseins. … And none of that is an April Fools joke.
But first: For all of Bidens problems in this weeks NBC News poll, he has one important thing going for him.
Hes not Donald Trump.
Trumps Grip On Gop Faces New Strains
Shifts in polls of Republicans, disagreements on endorsements and jeers over vaccines hint at daylight between the former president and the right-wing movement he spawned.
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About halfway into his Texas rally on Saturday evening, Donald J. Trump pivoted toward the teleprompter and away from a meandering set of grievances to rattle off a tightly prepared list of President Bidens failings and his own achievements.
Lets simply compare the records, Mr. Trump said, as supporters in Trump 2024 shirts cheered behind him, framed perfectly in the television shot.
Mr. Trump, who later went on to talk about that beautiful, beautiful house that happens to be white, has left increasingly little doubt about his intentions, plotting an influential role in the 2022 midterm elections and another potential White House run. But a fresh round of skirmishes over his endorsements, fissures with the Republican base over vaccines a word Mr. Trump conspicuously left unsaid at Saturdays rally and new polling all show how his longstanding vise grip on the Republican Party is facing growing strains.
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Ad Watch: Primary Meddling
The Democratic Governors Association is hitting Illinois Republican candidate for governor, Richard Irvin but not from where you might expect.
In a new ad out Thursday, the DGA hits Irvin for being soft on crime, an attack usually used by Republicans. The ad highlights Irvins career as a defense attorney, with a narrator saying he by defending some of the most violent and heinous criminals, domestic abusers and sexual assault, a kidnapper who molested a child, reckless homicide, even accused child pornographers. Irwin told Politico the ad was part of a smear campaign against him.
The ad comes just a week after Senate Republicans attacked Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson during her Supreme Court confirmation hearings for being soft on crime as a public defender, while Democrats backed her, saying attorneys have a duty to represent clients no matter what crimes they may have committed.
Thats why this ad raises eyebrows Democrats are putting their name on an ad attacking a conservative candidate from the right, picking a lane usually reserved for Republicans. Some saw it as a ploy to meddle in the GOP primary and ultimately bolster Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker, whos running for re-election. Pritzker donated $250,000 to the DGA last year, according to Politico, but his campaign downplayed the donation.
A federal judge blocked much of Floridas new restrictive voting law Thursday, but the ruling will likely be appealed, NBCs Jane C. Timm reports.
The Sample And Margin Of Error
Pollsters cant realistically contact every American adult throughout the country and ask their opinion on a given issue. Instead, they try to contact a representative sampleusually anywhere between 1,000 and 2,000 individualsthat accurately represents the countrys population as a whole. Pollsters, with the help of statisticians, demographers, and data experts, use a variety of techniques to create a representative sample. This typically involves using probability formulas and algorithms to ensure random sampling and to increase the likelihood of contacting an accurate cross-section of the U.S. adult population. Some pollsters also create panels of respondents that they believe reflect the actual population and poll them repeatedly over a span of time. These polls are usually called tracking polls. Oftentimes, pollsters weigh their respondents to account for various demographic measurements. For example, a pollster might weigh more heavily the responses from a specific demographic group if that group was poorly represented in the random sample in relation to the countrys estimated demographic composition. The same might be done if a group appears to be overrepresented.
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Trump Leads Biden By 7% In Slu/yougov Poll
Joe Biden leads Donald Trump rather comfortably in national polling with a realclearpolitics.com average of about 9%, 49% to 40%. Biden also leads Trump in most Battleground states. However, our SLU/YouGov Poll shows Trump with a rather comfortable lead in Missouri among likely voters, 50% to Bidens 43%.
Missouri was once touted as the nations best bellwether state during the 1900s, but Missouri has been trending red, especially in presidential elections since Bill Clinton won Missouri in 1992 and 1996. Missouri has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since, voting for George W. Bush twice, John McCain, Mitt Romney, and Donald Trump with Romney and especially Trump winning by large vote margins.
Support among men and women for Trump in Missouri is also down from 2016, from 62% to 56.5% for men and from 53% to 43% among women. Although Trump still shows strong support among voters without a college degree, his support among four-year college graduates is sharply down. Among these college graduates, he has fallen from 55% support in 2016 to 41% in our poll. While 45% of males with four-year college degrees say they will vote for Trump, only 36% of four-year college degreed women say they will.
Biden Is Furious That Hes Below Trump In Polls But It Just Got Even Worse
As we noted earlier, Brain-Dead Biden is in a quandary as to how to change his sliding numbers. Hes frustrated even that his numbers are worse than those of President Donald Trump. As NBC noted, Hes now lower than Trump, and hes really twisted about it, another person close to the White House said. He also thinks Democrats arent defending him enough.
Biden is supposedly upset that his people are undercutting him, but his people respond, We dont say anything that the president doesnt want us to say. In other words, what Biden is saying now or what NBC is spreading out there to try to make him look better just doesnt add up.
Thats the problem when it comes to Biden thats why the polls are continuing to crash: because no one believes that Brain-Dead Biden knows what he is doing and they believe all the issues that we are having to deal with can be laid right in the lap of his confusion.
It isnt getting any better for him.
The Civiqs poll just hit the basement on Biden: 34 percent.
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Data Download: The Number Of The Day Is 60 Percent
Thats the net positive rating for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the latest NBC News poll 67 percent had positive views of Zelenskyy, while 7 percent viewed him negatively.
For comparison, the late Princess Diana, had a net positive rating of 75 percentage points in a survey conducted shortly after her death. Zelenskys rating is also on par with Pope John Paul II, who had a 58 percent net positive rating.
At the other end of the spectrum, Russian President Vladimir Putins net negative rating was minus 87 percentage points, with 88 percent of Americans viewing Putin negatively and just 1 percent viewing him positively. That rating put Putin just behind Saddam Hussein, who had a net negative rating of minus 91 percentage points.
Other numbers to know:
6: The number of hours the House committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol interviewed Trumps son-in-law Jared Kushner yesterday.
$7 million: Thats how much energy executive and Arizona GOP Senate hopeful Jim Lamon will report raising in the first fundraising quarter of 2022, per the Washington Examiner, which includes a $5 million contribution from Lamon himself.
$10 million: The amount of money the super PAC Protect Our Future, which is backed by cryptocurrency executives, plans to spend on Democratic primaries this year.
39 percent: Bidens approval rating in the new Marist College poll.
985,569: The number of deaths in the United States from the virus so far.
Donald Trump Isn’t Getting Any More Popular
Analysis by Chris Cillizza, CNN Editor-at-large
Usually when presidents leave office, they almost immediately get more popular. The longer they are out of office, the more kindly the public tends to think of them.
unchangedno1) Trump has never really gone away.still2) There are no on-the-fence voters when it comes to Trump.The Point: While the electoral outlook for Democrats in 2022 is full of doom and gloom, if Trump is the GOP nominee in 2024 and his numbers stay close to where they are in a swing state like Wisconsin, then President Joe Biden has a solid chance at a second term.
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The Claim: President Joe Bidens Approval Rating Is 39% And Lower Than Donald Trumps Ever Was
Text in reads, “Joe Biden’s approval falls to 39 percent, worse than Trump’s approval ever.” The post did not indicate which poll it’s referring to.
A similar post accumulated 46,000 likes in six days before it was deleted. Other claims in this vein have racked up hundreds of interactions on Facebook and Instagram, according to CrowdTangle, a social media insights tool.
The claim is misleading. While one poll did put Bidens approval rating at 39%, the polling average a more accurate measure of a president’s popularity put it higher. Experts say Biden’s approval rating, the lowest since he took office, is still higher than Trumps term low.
USA TODAY reached out to several social media users who shared the claim for comment.
Us President Is Being Forced To Deal With Some Of The Same Dynamics As His Predecessor
Former US president Donald Trump has overtaken his successor Joe Biden in favourability ratings among American voters in what has been described as a remarkable turnaround.
The Times reported that, just eight months after the transfer of power, Trump has a positive rating of 48% compared with Bidens 46% in a Harvard-Harris poll. Back in February, Biden had a 56% positive rating compared with Trumps 43%.
The team that surrounded Trump during his reign also fared better than Bidens circle. Some 55% of respondents said that Mike Pence was a better vice president than his successor, Kamala Harris, and 63% believed that Mike Pompeo was a better secretary of state than Antony Blinken.
A number of other surveys have discovered the same trend, with a poll in the bellwether state of Iowa putting Bidens approval rating at just 31%, down from 43% in June.
Meanwhile, after Biden dropped to a new low of 43% approval in the monthly Gallup survey, down six points from August and 14 since his inauguration in January, the pollster pointed out that among elected presidents since World War Two, only Trump has had a lower job approval rating than Biden does at a similar point in their presidencies.
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New Marquette Law School Poll Finds Trump And Desantis Drawing Similar Support But Each Trailing Biden In Possible 2024 Presidential Matchups Election Confidence Covid Topics Also Surveyed
MILWAUKEE A Marquette Law School Poll survey of adults nationwide finds that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former President Donald Trump run equally well against Democratic President Joe Biden in hypothetical 2024 matchups, although Biden leads both Republicans.
In a head-to-head matchup, DeSantis is supported by 33%, while Biden is supported by 41%. A substantial 18% say they would support someone else, and 8% say they would not vote. In a Trump versus Biden rematch, Trump receives 33% to Bidens 43%, with 16% preferring someone else and 6% saying they would not vote.
The survey was conducted Jan. 10-21, 2022, interviewing 1000 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points.
While the election is substantially into the future, these results show that while Trump remains popular among Republican voters, another GOP candidate performs at least as well against Biden. There are similar patterns of support for both Republicans by party identification, as shown in Tables 1 and 2. In both pairings against Biden, there are significant percentages of all partisan categories saying they prefer someone else, not in the pairing, or wouldnt vote. This is especially pronounced among independents.
Table 1: DeSantis vs. Biden, by party identification, Jan. 2022
Table 3: Like to see Trump run in 2024, by party identification, Jan. 2022
Favorability to DeSantis, Trump and Pence