Retrospective: Odds Of Trump Being Reelected In 2020
Donald Trumps reelection odds were favorable until April when it became clear that his responses to Black Lives Matter protests and the Coronavirus were not going over well with a majority of bettors.
At that time, Joe Biden took the lead in the 2020 Presidential election odds and remained the favorite through his win in November.
Will Trump Run In 2024 Odds
The exact odds on whether or not Trump will run in 2024 are hard to come by, but its a near certainty at this point. Its likely that no online sportsbook would take the bet, or would give large plus-money odds on him not running. Right now, Trump is the most likely candidate to win the Republican primary, followed closely by Ron DeSantis. Everyone else is +1400 or longer, and potential candidates like Nikki Haley and Mike Pompeo have odds +2000 or longer .
Basically, if a betting website gave you anything less than +1000 on Trump not running in 2024, dont take the bet. The odds on Trump running in 2024 is close to a 100% likelihood.
Some Republicans Fear An Announcement Will Undercut Them At A Time When They Have A Strong Chance Of Retaking The House And Senate
For nearly a year, a kitchen cabinet of Donald Trump confidants has told the former president not to announce his 2024 comeback candidacy before the midterms, arguing that he could be a drag on 2022 candidates and would be blamed if Republicans underperformed.
But Trump has continued to regularly push for an early announcement in private meetings, as potential 2024 rivals become more aggressive amid signs of weakening support among his base. Now an increasing number of allies are urging him to follow his instincts as a way to shore up his standing in the party and drive turnout to help the GOP take over the House and Senate next year.
The former president is now eyeing a September announcement, according to two Trump advisers, who like some others interviewed for this article spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe private conversations. One confidant put the odds at 70-30 he announces before the midterms. And others said he may still decide to announce sooner than September.
Trump has begun talking with advisers about who should run a campaign, and his team has instructed others to have an online apparatus ready for a campaign should he announce soon, two people familiar with the matter said. He also has begun meeting with top donors to talk about the 2024 race, one of these people said, while on trips to various places across the country.
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Presidential Betting Odds Explained
Understanding presidential betting odds is hugely important before placing a wager. The odds effectively show you how many dollars you would make as profit if you were to place a $100 bet.
So, odds of +200 means you’d earn $200 profit + your $100 stake = $300. Remember, you always can use a bet calculator or check your risk and reward in your bet slip before completing a wager. Why political odds are different to most sports odds is because there are more than two candidates in the market. This means that the odds can fluctuate wildly.
Think of it like betting on a horse race months before the event begins. You’re not sure who will be racing, let alone winning, and so the odds on Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and everyone else are much higher before the primaries.
Once it’s a one-on-one race, you can be sure the 2024 presidential election odds for the final two candidates will shrink. And the shorter your odds, the smaller your potential profits.
Trump Raid: What The Fbi Seized From Mar
The FBI raid of Donald Trumps Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida will absolutely rally support for the former presidents long-expected 2024 bid, political pundits and Trumps avid supporters alike insisted Tuesday.
Both Republicans and Democrats said that Mondays search had the potential to make Trump a martyr and let the 45th president portray himself as a victim of the corrupt government establishment.
The White House is claiming to have not had advance notice the FBI were going to raid the home of the preceding President of the United States?! Please. This is so sure to boost Trump and his chances, you wonder if its intentional, Gregg Keller, a Missouri-based GOP strategist, told The Post.
Chuck Flint, a former chief of staff to Sen. Marsha Blackburn predicted the raid reportedly part of a probe into whether Trump illegally took classified records from the White House would unite the Republican Party behind Trump because it solidifies a pattern of government agencies being used by the Left to target political opponents.
Whether its the IRS auditing conservative organizations or DOJ relying on a Democrat research dossier as a pretext to launch an investigation of Trump in 2016, these actions stoke GOP resentment, Flint told The Post.
The raid at Mar-a-Lago will energize Republican voters who havent forgotten Hillary Clinton deleting 33,000 emails and walking away with a slap on the wrist, he added.
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America Is Not Ready For Trumps Second Term
And he could win, fair and square.
About the author: David A. Graham is a staff writer at The Atlantic.
The United States was unprepared for the scope of President Donald Trumps attempt to steal the 2020 presidential election. By Election Day, Trump had spent months calling the election rigged, and historians and democracy experts warned of the damage that these false claims could make. But when the president stepped to a lectern in the White House late on Election Night and insisted hed won, many Americans were taken aback. Much worse was still to come: Trump calling Georgias secretary of state, asking him to find 11,000 votes attempting to weaponize the Justice Department and instigating the failed January 6 insurrection.
Americans are ready now. If anything, theyre overprepared. Many members of the uneasy coalition of Democrats and former Republicans who oppose Trump are frantically focused on the danger of Trump and his GOP allies trying to steal the 2022 and especially 2024 elections. This is not without justification many of Trumps henchmen, meanwhile, are frantically focused on stealing it. But these watchdogs risk missing the graver danger: Trump could win this fair and square.
The possibility remains that they might try everything else and then opt for the wrong thing after all.
Will Trump Run Again
Despite his defeat last fall, many believe Trump still holds the keys to the future of the GOP. The former president has retained an extremely loyal base of supporters, and his popularity among Republicans does not seem to have been damaged by his checkered political past.
Trump was impeached twice during his first and only term in the White House, and his four-year stint was marred by a seemingly endless array of scandals. Trump was rather fortunate to escape his first three years in office without a legitimate disaster, but that changed last year when the pandemic upended everything.
Trumps disastrous response to the pandemic may have ultimately cost him his chance at re-election. The economy, which had been Trumps primary selling point beforehand, subsequently went into the tank. His approval rating among non-GOP voters was questionable to begin with. The pandemic was likely the final nail in his coffin.
Trump Iowa rally in the works:
However, in spite of it all, Trump may be able to win his partys nomination again in 2024 if he wants to. While some within the party may have decided to move on, there does not seem to be a very obvious heir to his throne. Trump is still the single most popular Republican in the country.
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What To Monitor: Polling Data
Polling data is fluid and changes over the course of an election period. In the early stages like now , candidates with the most name recognition tend to poll the strongest. Thats why on the Democratic side former VP Joe Biden and 2016 candidate Bernie Sanders were early polling front-runners.
As lower tier candidates who have difficulty fund-raising drop out of the race, and TV debates start crystallizing voter opinion, the numbers begin to consolidate around one-to-two front-runners heading into the primaries.
For simplicity purposes, monitor two well-respected polling aggregators:
- Real Clear Politics: Consolidates and links to the most respected polls.
- FiveThirtyEight Polls: Does the same but presents the information in a different way.
Latest 2024 President Odds Movement
Trump and DeSantis are tied in the latest US president odds. The GOP leaders are far in front, and DeSantis actually overtook Trump for a brief period in late June and early July when it looked as though the former president could face criminal charges over the Jan. 6 riots.
Joe Biden, meanwhile, has seen his chances of winning in 2024 edge up recently, from 14.3% to 15.4%. The November mid-term elections should be a good barometer of the voters’ feelings.
The latest president odds movements also show California Gov. Gavin Newsom could impact this race, while Harris has seen her popularity slide. Right now, it looks like the GOP will win the 2024 election. The next question, then, is who will be on the winning ticket?
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How A Pandemic Could Actually Boost Trumps Reelection Chances
Psychology research shows that when humans are made more aware of their mortality, they tend to support dominant leaders who claim to protect them.
04/07/2020 04:43 PM EDT
Peter T. Coleman is a professor of psychology and education at Columbia University who studies intractable conflict. His next book, The Way Out: How to Overcome Toxic Polarization, will be released in 2021.
One of the burning questions on many Americans minds during the global pandemic were all living through is: What effect will these events have on the reelection of President Donald Trump?
While Trumps approval rating has inched up during the Covid-19 outbreak, a majority of Americans disapprove of his handling of the crisis. Given his initial reluctance to acknowledge the severity of the problem, the administrations testing debacle, and his daily errors and misstatements at his news briefings, many voters might assume that Trumps chances of winning this fall are dwindling.
But a widely studied psychological phenomenon suggests the opposite: that, with the grimness of death hanging in the air, anxious Americans might actually be more likely to support Trump in November because of his dominant leadership style and his claims of offering protection.
How can we switch modes? By offering a compelling vision of hope.
Donald Trump Has 87% Chance Of Winning The Election Stock Market Researcher Says
President Donald Trump has a very good chance of winning the 2020 presidential election against Joe Biden, if a more than 200-year overview of the stock market is to be believed.
Thats according to research from the Socionomic Institute, a group that has long used the stock market to predict elections and economic and cultural trends.
The research, going back to George Washington, found 16 times in U.S. history when an incumbent president ran for reelection and the stock market was up more than 20% in the preceding three years. In 14 of those 16 times, the incumbent won reelection, giving a success rate of 87%. If the trend holds, Mr. Trump could be No. 15.
The two times it didnt work out, for reference, were George H.W. Bush, who lost to Bill Clinton in 1992 even though the stock market was up 38% in the preceding three years, and John Adams, who didnt win his reelection bid in 1800, despite the fact that the value of capital in U.S. chartered banks had risen by 30% in the previous 5 years.
The stock market is an indicator of social mood, said Matthew Lampert, who is the director of research of the group. Historically, a more positive trend in the market and social mood is associated with a win for the incumbent.
That gives Mr. Trump a pretty clear historical edge. But there are some huge caveats to consider before concluding that he will have another four years in the White House.
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Will Anyone Not Already In Politics Run For President In 2024
When Trump first flirted with the idea of being president in 2013, plenty of people laughed it off as a publicity stunt. But naysayers of the celebrity businessman didnt realize the extent of his emerging popularity. Its no surprise, then, that betting sites are taking odds on other celebrity presidents. Here are the some names that just wont go away.
The Rock’s 2024 President Odds = 2% Chance
The Rocks 2024 odds are +5000. That means Dwayne Johnson, better known as “The Rock”, has a greater chance of being the next US president than Candace Owens and Bernie Sanders. The Rock certainly would prove a popular candidate, but is he really on the verge of running for president? Trumps former chief of staff thinks Johnson could give Trump a run for his money,” while there are rumors he could run in the Democratic primaries. Still, at his price the bookies arent expecting The Peoples Champion to seriously challenge in 2024.
Tucker Carlson’s 2024 President Odds = 1% Chance
Tucker Carlson’s 2024 odds slid from +6600 to +10000 as August ended. A well-known political commenter and conservative influencer, Carlson has been discussed as a potential candidate to make the switch from entertainment to politics but there has been nothing official out of his camp to suggest he would run in 2024. Carlson is popular among Republican voters, though, so should he consider a run at any political office, expect him to garner plenty of attention.
Kanye West’s 2024 President Odds = 1% Chance
Would Trumps Support Change If He Were Charged With A Crime
The former president faces a handful of investigations, including from the Department of Justice and the U.S. House select committee on the origins of the Jan. 6 attack, a grand jury looking into potential election interference in Georgia and, most recently, an FBI probe into classified materials removed from the White House and kept at Trumps Florida estate. Some had been recovered or returned earlier this year. But when the FBI executed a search warrant at Mar-a-Lago last month, agents still found more than 100 classified documents and 43 empty folders with classified markings, among thousands of other official records, according to a Department of Justice list of items.
Support for Trumps candidacy in 2024 would not change much if any of these investigations result in Trump being charged with a crime, according to this poll. Sixty-five percent of Americans would oppose another run for the White House. More than six in 10 Republicans would still want to see him launch a campaign. Meanwhile, 73 percent of independents say he should not run again if he is charged.
This poll is just a snapshot of the current political environment. With two months until the midterm elections and another two years until the 2024 presidential election, a lot can still change with the Republican primary field and the investigations.
Graphic by Megan McGrew
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Joe Bidens Odds Of Winning The 2024 Us Presidential Election
After briefly rebounding, President Bidenâs approval rating has dropped back to 36% in the latest Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll, the worst number during his tenure as president.
Bidenâs latest market prices on the Smarkets exchange give him just a 11.9% chance of being re-elected in 2024.
Despite healthy growth in the US job market and relatively low levels of unemployment, the Biden regime continues to face plenty of obstacles. Chief among them are surging inflation, high fuel prices, and global supply chains still hindered by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Heâs also dealing with criticism from his Democrat base who feel like the party is losing key ground on issues like gun reform and abortion. With criticism from all sides, Biden might not even be the party nominee if the Democrats take a beating during the midterms.
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Who Will Run For President In 2024
Were still more than two years out from the 2024 US election but campaigning will get underway soon. On the Democratic side, incumbent Joe Biden is expected to seek a second term, while VP Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg and Gavin Newsom all could compete to be the Dems’ pick.
Meanwhile, the Republican party looks set to choose either Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis. The big decision for party members centers around Trumps electability nationwide. He lost the last election by seven million votes. Can he overcome this deficit in 2024?
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If History Is Our Guide Trumps Chances Of Returning To The White House Are Extremely Low
Donald Trump is all but certain to announce another run for president to reclaim the White House after his one term in office. He wouldnt be the first former president to attempt such a political comeback.
If history is our guide, however, Trumps chances of serving two nonconsecutive terms is extremely low. In fact, the record of success by former presidents winning a term after being out of office is limited to just one example in more than 200 years, even though others have tried to return to the presidency.
The closest parallel of what Trump is attempting to replicate comes from the career of Democrat Grover Cleveland, our 22nd and 24th president.
Cleveland was first elected in 1884. He won the Electoral College with 219 votes against his Republican opponent James G. Blaines 182 electoral votes. Clevelands victory, however, was masked by his razor-thin margin of victory in his home state of New York, which he won by just over 1,000 votes. Had Cleveland lost New York, Blaine would have won the presidency and Cleveland likely would have been just a footnote to history.
Just as Clevelands 1884 victory hinged on just a few votes in one state, in 2016, Trumps margin over Hillary Clinton was because of small but significant victories in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. He won these three states by a total of less than 78,000 votes, even though he lost the nationwide popular vote by close to 3 million votes.