Can We Trust The Polls
Can we believe the polls this time?
It’s easy to dismiss the polls by saying they got it wrong in 2016 and President Trump frequently does exactly that. But it’s not entirely true.
Most national polls did have Hillary Clinton ahead by a few percentage points, but that doesn’t mean they were wrong, since she won three million more votes than her rival.
Pollsters did have some problems in 2016 – notably a failure to properly represent voters without a college degree – meaning Mr Trump’s advantage in some key battleground states wasn’t spotted until late in the race, if at all. Most polling companies have corrected this now.
But this year there’s even more uncertainty than normal due to the coronavirus pandemic and the effect it’s having on both the economy and how people will vote in November, so all polls should be read with some scepticism.
Which States Will Decide This Election
As Mrs Clinton discovered in 2016, the number of votes you win is less important than where you win them.
Most states nearly always vote the same way, meaning that in reality there are just a handful of states where both candidates stand a chance of winning. These are the places where the election will be won and lost and are known as battleground states.
In the electoral college system the US uses to elect its president, each state is given a number of votes based on how many members it sends to Congress – House and Senate. A total of 538 electoral college votes are up for grabs, so a candidate needs to hit 270 to win.
As the map above shows, some battleground states have a lot more electoral college votes on offer than others so candidates often spend a lot more time campaigning in them.
Who Is Donald Trump
2020 Presidential Election Update: Donald Trump lost reelection to Joe Biden in the November general, with Biden being sworn in as Americas 46th President on January 20, 2021. Trump is considering a Presidential bid for 2024, and he is also throwing a lot of support behind conservative candidates for Congressional and Gubernatorial seats.
Donald Trump is 74 years old and was the United States 45th President. Trump ran for President in 2016 as a Republican and filed his reelection campaign with the FEC on the date of his presidential inauguration on January 20, 2019, eventually losing reelection to Joe Biden in 2020.
Before becoming POTUS, Trump was best known for his real estate development and reality television appearances. Since Trump took office, the best online sportsbooks have had non-stop Trump odds on offer in every imaginable political betting market, which continues even as Trump is once again a private citizen. It is safe to say that Trump was the most bet-on President in US history. Today, you will find re-election odds for Donald Trump Sr., as well as 2024 Presidential odds for his kids including Ivanka Trump, Donald Trump Jr., and Eric Trump.
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Forecasting Trumps Electoral College Showing
There are still 10 months to go until the first ballots will be cast in the 2020 presidential caucuses and primaries. The identity of the Democratic nominee, in all likelihood, will not be known for more than a year. Nevertheless, it is not too early to begin speculating about Donald Trumps chances of winning a second term in the White House. That is because when an incumbent is running for reelection, the presidential election is largely a referendum on that incumbents performance. The challengers characteristics and the general election campaign itself matter only at the margins.
In this article, I present the results of a modified version of the time for change forecasting model that I have used to correctly predict the winner of the national popular vote in every presidential election between 1992 and 2012. And while the model failed to predict Hillary Clintons narrow popular vote victory in 2016, I noted at the time that Trump might well fall short of his predicted vote given his extraordinary weaknesses as a candidate. As it was, the model predicted Trump to win the national two-party popular vote by three points, but Clinton won it by two points.
Who Is Trumps Competition
Several names have emerged as possible 2024 GOP candidates, including former vice president Mike Pence, Texas senator Ted Cruz, former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, former Trump administration official Nikki Haley, and Florida governor Ron DeSantis.
A recent Harvard CAPS/Harris poll found that Trump is significantly favored to win the GOP nomination, receiving 57% of the hypothetical votes. DeSantis and Pence came in second and third places, respectively, with 12 and 11% of the votes.
In late December, Biden announced that he intends to run for reelection in 2024, assuming that he is in good health. Incumbent presidents rarely lose their partys nomination, so Biden is the likely challenger to the GOP nominee.
Independent voters and young voters, who turned out for Biden in very high numbers in the 2020 election, are taking an increasingly dim view of the current president: Support of independents who voted for Biden is down 31 points and support from voters younger than 30 is down 28 points from his first month as president.
To regain the support of young voters, Biden must fulfill the promises that he made to young people, says Dakota Hall, executive director of the Alliance for Youth Action, an organization that polls young people to determine which issues are most salient to them. Specifically, Hall emphasizes, young voters want to see the Biden administration follow through on its promises regarding student debt relief, environmental justice, and voting rights.
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The Odds Of A Trump Win 19 Per Cent: 338canada Election Forecast
Philippe J. Fournier: The current map shows a distinct advantage towards Joe Biden. But any victory will ultimately come down to three crucial states.
By Philippe J. FournierOctober 13, 2020
Trump waves to the crowd as he leaves after speaking during a campaign event at the Orlando Sanford International Airport on Oct. 12, 2020 in Sanford, Florida
The first presidential debate has not had the desired effect for President Donald Trump according to the data made public since early October. His own COVID-19 infection and hospitalization did not bring about a sympathy boost in the polls as many had hypothesized last week. Quite the opposite, it appears Joe Biden has solidified his position as the favourite to win the Nov. 3 presidential election south of the border.
The national polls had Biden ahead by an average margin of 6 to 8 points before the debate. As of this writing, the 338Canada presidential forecast has Biden leading by nine points on the national level:
However, while a Trump victory with the current numbers would be an upset, it would still not be a one-in-a-century or -millennium event: The 338Canada model has Biden winning the Electoral college in 81 per cent of all simulations meaning Trumps chances at re-election remain at around 19 per cent, roughly the odds a dice roll.
Lets look at three crucial states: Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
What Are The Chances Well Know The Next President On Election Night
In addition, theres something to be said for the idea that its worthwhile to lock in a vote. If someone has already voted, theyre 100 percent likely to vote . What about someone who says theyre planning to vote on Election Day but hasnt done so yet? Theyre certainly not 100 percent likely to vote. Something could come up on Election Day they get stuck late at work, they blow out a tire, they feel sick, they dont bother because they think their candidate is losing. Indeed, even some of the people that pollsters deem to be the most likely voters dont wind up voting. If 2 percent of mail voters have their votes rejected, but 5 percent of likely Election Day voters dont wind up voting, then polls could underestimate Democrats.
Wait, wasnt this supposed to be a post about how Trump could beat his polls? Well, the point is just that mail voting creates additional uncertainty this year, and its easy to imagine how that could help out Trump or Biden.
Another potential source of anxiety for pollsters is the Hispanic vote. Polls show Trump having made significant gains relative to 2016 with Hispanic voters and to a lesser extent with Black voters, especially Black men. This is not enough to offset gains that Biden has made with white voters, however, including white voters both with and without a college degree.
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How Do Young Voters Feel About Trump
Says Hall, A majority of young people, like we saw in 2020, would reject a President Trump candidacy. This rejection comes from an understanding that the issues that we care about, Trump is not a fan of, whether it’s the environment, voting rights and the keen look at the racial discrimination within voting rights, the economy, and making sure that were raising taxes on the wealthy corporations.
According to a recent Alliance for Youth Organizing poll of voters age 17-39, the most commonly favored issue they would like elected officials to work on is increasing taxes on corporations and the wealthy. Thats something where young people, I think, are all aligned upon,” Hall says, “whether youre a Democrat, Republican, or Independent that those in Washington, DC, only care about wealthy people.
Trump, whose net worth totals approximately $2.5 billion and whose company is under investigation for tax fraud, embodies wealth and hypocrisy. Basically, though many young voters feel disillusioned with the Biden administration, most would still prefer Biden return to office in 2024 over four more years of Trump, according to Hall.
Trumps Problem: Little Time Not Great Momentum
And thats precisely Trumps towering challenge. He needs to hold North Carolina, where hes just over even-money to win, overcome a small deficit in Arizona, and climb back from a shortfall in the odds of 58% to 42% in Pennsylvania. Hes got good to pretty good chances in each state. But to win, hes got to pull off not one, not two, but a near-miraculous trifecta.
Its important to address a yawning divergence in the overall odds for the nationwide, winner-take-all market on PredictIt, as well as the other betting sites, to those awarded by the Miller model. As noted, Millers methodology gives Trump a 1-in-4 chance of prevailing. But on PredictIt, Trumps line on Monday afternoon is 40% to 60%, or 2 in 5 to win, 15 points higher than Millers approximate 25%. So if Miller is using the PredictIt data, why is the probability his model puts on a Trump victory so much lower? Its that people who are betting on the nationwide winner-take-all poll are using their feelings about what will happen in the election, he says. But to understand the outcome in the Electoral College, you have to model it. And that requires a computer.
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Trump’s 2020 Chances ‘100 Percent Dead’ After 4 Swing State Lawsuits Are Dropped
President Trump’s longshot chances of overturning President-elect Joe Biden’s win just became pretty much impossible.
Even before Biden was projected to win the 2020 election, Trump and his supporters launched a bevvy of lawsuits aimed at disqualifying ballots in states Biden narrowly picked up. Those suits have slowly been dropped or dismissed, and on Monday, a slew of swing-state drops have all but eradicated Trump’s chances of changing the election outcome before the Electoral College finalizes it, CNN reports.
Using a similar strategy and backed by conservative attorney James Bopp Jr., voters in Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin all filed lawsuits challenging the legality of some votes cast in those states. Nine cases aimed at overturning Biden’s win were also dropped on Friday. The Trump campaign lost several suits in Pennsylvania that day as well. One case in Pennsylvania had attempted to throw out late-arriving mail-in ballots, and because it mirrored the strategy of the four cases dropped Monday, likely pushed the voters to give up.
With barely any of Trump’s election challenges left, Rick Hasen, an election law expert at the University of California, Irvine, became convinced that “Trump’s legal path to overturn the election results appears 100 percent dead.”
#ELB: Trumps Legal Path to Overturn the Election Results Appears 100 Percent Dead
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Consumer Sentiment Looks Okay For Trump Right Now
Before we dive into the economic data, a word of warning from Sides: The debate in political science circles is whether voters care about how the economy did in the year preceding an election or if they look back over the previous two years.
Either way, when thinking about November 2020, we are either only halfway through the economic period voters will be using to evaluate the state of the country and Trumps presidency or weve barely begun it and none of whats happened so far will matter by the time people head to the polls.
Changes in economic indicators matter more closer to the election, Sides told me. So the consequential economic trends, if there are any, probably havent happened yet.
And things can still change: Bloomberg currently projects the chances of a recession in the next 12 months at 26 percent. Thats far from a guarantee but its still a decent chance. So if there is a big drop in economic conditions before the election, it hasnt happened yet.
But we will press on, starting with consumer sentiment, a useful way to understand how the American people are feeling about the economy.
Here is how UMs consumer sentiment index has shifted during Trumps presidency:
This is a noisy metric, as you can see. But taking the long view, American consumers are feeling either about the same as when Trump came into office or maybe a little bit better.
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President Donald Trumps Running Policies
Trumps 2020 Presidential campaign used a lot of ideas presented during his 2016 campaign. Trump was still railing against illegal immigration and globalism while promising legislation and executive actions to improve the economy, create more jobs, and install stronger foreign policies.
For 2020, his slogan was changed from Make America Great Again to Keep America Great. These platforms worked well in 2016, and his greater focus on economic recovery should have increased the odds of Trump being re-elected the second time around. However, the coronavirus and 1619 Riots derailed that considerably.
Weighing Donald Trumps Policies And Actions In The White House Many Utah Voters Would Choose Him In 2024
Former President Donald Trump gestures to the audience after speaking at an America First Policy Institute agenda summit at the Marriott Marquis in Washington on Tuesday, July 26, 2022.
Andrew Harnik, Associated Press
Donald Trump says he has made up his mind about whether to run for president again in 2024.
While he hasnt made an announcement yet, many Utahns who voted for him in 2016 would mark the ballot for him again because of the policies he advanced in his one term in the White House and despite his nonstop claims of fraud in the 2020 election.
A new Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll ascertained Utah voters thoughts on whether Trump fulfilled his campaign promises and what policies and actions they approved or disapproved of during his presidency.
Based on those responses, the survey sought to find out if those voters would go back to Trump if he were to run in 2024. While nearly eight in 10 previous Trump voters in Utah would support the former president, the poll results appear to leave room for other potential GOP presidential candidates to make inroads.
Given the questions that were asked, the evidence from the survey indicates that while Trump is still likely to be the prohibitive favorite among Utah Republicans, meaningful numbers of former Trump voters may be ready to give other candidates a chance, said Chris Karpowitz, co-director of the Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy at Brigham Young University.
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Bidenworld Wants To Make The Midterms More About Trump And Hopes Elon Musk Helps
Still, some allies and Democrats privately worry that Biden may not be able to handle the rigors of another campaign.
A bone he broke in his foot while playing with his dog in late November 2020 still occasionally bothers Biden, resulting in a slower and shorter gait. And the White House has largely abandoned using the Oval Office for press events in part because it cant be permanently equipped with a teleprompter Biden aides prefer the fake White House stage built in the Old Executive Office Building next door for events, sacrificing some of the power of the historic backdrop in favor of an otherwise sterile room that was outfitted with an easily read teleprompter screen.
And if Biden were to run again in 2024, it almost certainly would be a more rigorous campaign than the one he previously mounted. The outbreak of Covid kept Biden in his Delaware home for much of the 2020 general election campaign, sparing him the wear and tear of relentless travel.
As for Trump, the issues are not related to physical health so much as psychological conditioning. He wants to run, those who know him say, but wants to be sure he will win.
I always said that he would run if Biden is under 44 or 43 but if Biden is at 46, 47, he will pass, said Bryan Lanza, a GOP strategist and former Trump campaign official. Right now he is at 41 so I have to say yes right now there has to be a dramatic turning out in Biden numbers for him to pass.
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