Is Trump A Threat To Republican Candidates
A Trump endorsement may mean something different in a general election than a primary election.
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Official portrait of President Donald J. Trump, Friday, October 6, 2017. Official White House photo by Shealah Craighead. Photo is in the Public Domain.
It has become clear that Donald Trumps dominance of the Republican Party makes it very hard for independent thinkers to survive. That generalization is true in Wisconsin as well as nationally.
Derrick Van Orden is the Republican candidate for US Representative in the Third Congressional District, running against Democrat Brad Pfaff. The third district covers much of southwestern Wisconsin. The largest city is La Crosse. For years this district was represented by a Democrat, Ron Kind, who is retiring at the end of this year. Recently, the third district has been trending more Republican , in part because of gerrymandering and in part following the national trend of reddening small towns and rural areas.
A pre-primary fundraising appeal from Van Orden would seem to remove any doubts about his commitment to Trumps MAGA cause. Here is how he described himself :
Im Retired Navy SEAL Derrick Van Orden and the Trump Conservative Candidate running in Wisconsins Third Congressional District So many people today are afraid of being silenced or canceled, but not me. I am:
TRUMP-ENDORSED
PROUD CHRISTIAN GRANDFATHER, FATHER, AND HUSBAND
AND A PROUD PATRIOT
Former Secretary Of State Mike Pompeo
In the month of June, Pompeo tweeted the word pipehitter 18 times, and his political action committee CAVPAC short for Champion American Values PAC tweeted pipehitter another 16 times. Be a pipehitter, read one. All of us need to be Pipehitters. If youre a Pipehitter like us, join the team. What the heck is a pipehitter, though?
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo gestures toward a reporter while speaking at the State Department in Washington on Nov. 10, 2020.
Jacquelyn Martin, Associated Press
The word refers to members of special forces, though it has other slang definitions not suitable for a family news website, which inspired mockery online and from Stephen Colbert. According to Pompeo, though, a pipehitter is basically a Pompeo super fan. Facebook ads run by CAVPAC in Pompeos home state of Kansas and the four early primary/caucus states define pipehitter as someone who is unapologetically American, someone who fights for our future, someone who never gives an inch, someone who is dedicated to stand against the radical Lefts agenda.
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Jul 13, 2022 · Betting odds to win the 2024 United States Presidentialelection are live on DraftKings Sportsbook in the Ontario, Canada market. Oddsmakers have Donald Trump installed as the odds favorite to win at +250, followed by Florida governor Ron DeSantis at +300 and Joe Biden at +550..
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Aug 12, 2022 · Both have terribly low approval ratings, but both have shown resiliency. Trump may be in trouble with the U.S. Department of Justice, but he remains the most popular Republican and the favorite to win the 2024 GOP presidential nomination. Biden, meanwhile, has a majority of Democrats hoping he wont seek r-election, but he has enjoyed a …. Live betting odds on the 2024 presidential election, and more! Who will win? Biden, Trump, Harris, DeSantis?… Live betting odds on the 2024 presidential election, and more! … 2024 Winner of Presidential election held on Nov 5 2024. $17,637,123 bet so. Here are the top five odds favorites to be named the Democratic presidential nominee in 2024: 2024 Democratic Presidential Candidate. Odds Kamala Harris. +200 Joe Biden. +225 Elizabeth Warren.
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The Former President Remains A Potent Force In Republican Politics
- Losing Support: Nearly half of G.O.P. voters prefer someone other than Donald J. Trump for president in 2024, a Times/Siena College poll showed.
- Trump-Pence Split: An emerging rivalry between Mr. Trump and Mike Pence, his former vice president, reveals Republicans enduring divisions.
For Mr. Trump, bleeding that amount of Republican support would represent a sharp increase compared with the already troubling level of the partys vote he shed during his last race.
In 2020, 9 percent of Republicans voted for someone other than Mr. Trump, while Mr. Biden lost just 4 percent of Democrats, according to AP VoteCast, a large study of the 2020 electorate by NORC at the University of Chicago for The Associated Press.
Kenneth Abreu, a 62-year-old pharmaceutical executive from Pennsylvania, said he had voted Republican for three decades but would support Mr. Biden instead of voting again for Mr. Trump.
Unlike all these other people who believe every word he says, Im done, Mr. Abreu said. All the garbage hes been talking about, the lies, Jan. 6, the whole thing I just lost all respect for him.
How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.
Political Activities Up To 2015
Trump’s political party affiliation has changed numerous times. He registered as a Republican in Manhattan in 1987, switched to the Reform Party in 1999, the Democratic Party in 2001, and back to the Republican Party in 2009.
Trump first floated the idea of running for president in 1987, placing full-page advertisements in three major newspapers, proclaiming “America should stop paying to defend countries that can afford to defend themselves.” The advertisements also advocated for “reducing the budget deficit, working for peace in Central America, and speeding up nuclear disarmament negotiations with the Soviet Union“.DCCC chair Rep. Beryl Anthony Jr. told The New York Times that “the message Trump has been preaching is a Democratic message.” Asked whether rumors of a presidential candidacy were true, Trump denied being a candidate, but said, “I believe that if I did run for President, I’d win.” In 1988, he approached Lee Atwater asking to be put into consideration as Republican nominee George H.W. Bush‘s running mate. Bush found the request “strange and unbelievable.” According to a Gallup poll in December 1988, Trump was the tenth most admired man in America.
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Odds on the US Presidential Election 2024: Winning Party and Next President. Compare the odds from the betting companies here! Calendar 2022-2025 … US Presidential Election 2024 – Winning Party. Odd unit: EU | UK | US Highest odds Lowest odds Republican: 1.74: 1.61: Democratic: 2.40: 2.20: Any Other: 24.00: 24.00: Independent: 26.00:. Why Its Important: While the election is years away, the betting odds imply that if Trump runs, he might be the favorite to win the 2024.
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Bet with the best 2024 Presidential Election News and Politics odds on the Smarkets betting exchange, thanks to our industry-low 2% commission. US Presidential Election 2024 Odds. US Presidential Election 2024 – Odds to Win: US Presidential Election 2024 Winner. US Presidential Election 2024 – Odds to Win: US Presidential Election 2024 Winner 11/04/24 @ 0:00 Team Win Donald Trump Sr. +275: Ron DeSantis +265: Joe Biden +600: Kamala Harris +1400: Mike Pence +1800: Nikki Haley.
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The 2024 Republican Presidential Candidate Wild Cards
The first Democratic debate back in 2019 had 20 TWENTY! candidates, so dont be surprised if the Republican field is just as large or larger. We could have some more governors or representatives run, or even other nontraditional candidates, like a Trump family member, a Fox News host or a celebrity, like Dwayne The Rock Johnson, whos said hes seriously considering a run. Stranger things have happened.
Republican Voters On Their Preferred Candidate For President
If the Republican 2024 presidential primary were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were:
Donald
Asked of 350 respondents who said they planned to vote in the 2024 Republican primary in a New York Times/Siena College poll from July 5-7, 2022. Respondents who answered someone else or did not offer a response are not shown.
The greatest threat to usurp Mr. Trump within the party is Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, who was the second choice with 25 percent and the only other contender with double-digit support. Among primary voters, Mr. DeSantis was the top choice of younger Republicans, those with a college degree and those who said they voted for President Biden in 2020.
While about one-fourth of Republicans said they didnt know enough to have an opinion about Mr. DeSantis, he was well-liked by those who did. Among those who voted for Mr. Trump in 2020, 44 percent said they had a very favorable opinion of Mr. DeSantis similar to the 46 percent who said the same about Mr. Trump.
Should Mr. DeSantis and Mr. Trump face off in a primary, the poll suggested that support from Fox News could prove crucial: Mr. Trump held a 62 percent to 26 percent advantage over Mr. DeSantis among Fox News viewers, while the gap between the two Floridians was 16 points closer among Republicans who mainly receive their news from another source.
Mr. Trumps troubles inside his party leave him hamstrung in a matchup against an unusually vulnerable incumbent.
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Would Trumps Support Change If He Were Charged With A Crime
The former president faces a handful of investigations, including from the Department of Justice and the U.S. House select committee on the origins of the Jan. 6 attack, a grand jury looking into potential election interference in Georgia and, most recently, an FBI probe into classified materials removed from the White House and kept at Trumps Florida estate. Some had been recovered or returned earlier this year. But when the FBI executed a search warrant at Mar-a-Lago last month, agents still found more than 100 classified documents and 43 empty folders with classified markings, among thousands of other official records, according to a Department of Justice list of items.
Support for Trumps candidacy in 2024 would not change much if any of these investigations result in Trump being charged with a crime, according to this poll. Sixty-five percent of Americans would oppose another run for the White House. More than six in 10 Republicans would still want to see him launch a campaign. Meanwhile, 73 percent of independents say he should not run again if he is charged.
WATCH:Legal implications of decision to appoint special master to review Trump documents
This poll is just a snapshot of the current political environment. With two months until the midterm elections and another two years until the 2024 presidential election, a lot can still change with the Republican primary field and the investigations.
Graphic by Megan McGrew
What The Primaries Reveal About The Future Of Trumpism
The movement no longer depends on Trump himself.
For all the talk about how Donald Trumps endorsed candidates would fare in the Republican primaries this year, the results in this weeks races made clear: Whatever happens to Trumps personal influence, Trumpism is consolidating its dominance of the GOP.
The former presidents scorecard on Tuesday was mixed. Candidates he endorsed won the GOP nominations for governor in Pennsylvania and Senate in North Carolina, while his preferred choice for Idaho governor failed to topple the incumbent and his late intervention could not save troubled young Representative Madison Cawthorn in North Carolina. The Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary remains too close to call between the celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz, Trumps candidate, and David McCormick, whom Trump has criticized.
If 22 was going to be a test of Trump and Trumpisms dominance of the party, so far hes pretty dominant and its pretty dominant, says Bill Kristol, a leader among the GOPs embattled Never Trump forces.
As the Republican electorate shifts away from the kinds of voters who might have resisted Trump, the partys tilt toward Trumpism has become self-perpetuating. Trumpism, it seems, no longer depends on Trump himself.
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Here’s The Growing List Of Trump
Donald Trump is putting his thumb on the scale in dozens of congressional races around the country.
The former president promised his supporters when leaving office that he’d return to politics. And while he’s been teasing a 2024 run for the White House, in the meantime he’s issued endorsements in federal and statewide races ahead of the 2022 midterm election cycle.
Some Republicans, like House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, have welcomed Trump’s assistance as the party looks to regain control of Congress. Currently, Democrats enjoy a narrow majority in the House and an advantage in the evenly divided Senate with Vice President Kamala Harris available to cast any tie-breaking votes.
But others want to see the GOP distance itself from the embattled former president. Longtime strategists such as Karl Rove have warned that Trump’s obsession with rehashing the 2020 election could do more harm than good for the party.
In fact, Trump has endorsed several conservative candidates who are challenging sitting Republican members of Congress who voted to impeach him after the U.S. Capitol riot or criticized him for his false claims about election fraud.
Here’s the growing list of candidates he’s supporting ahead of the 2022 elections.
Manafort: Melania Trump Gave A Great Speech
Alabama Sen. Jeff Sessions put Trumps name up for the nomination shortly before 6 p.m. ET. The nomination was seconded by New York Rep. Chris Collins, the first member of Congress to endorse him.
Donald Trump is the singular leader that can get this country back on track,” Sessions said while nominating Trump.
The official nomination came on the second day of what has been a rocky start to the convention. An effort Monday to protest Trumps candidacy on the convention floor fell short, but not before images of chaos unseen in recent conventions played out on live television.
That preceded prime-time speeches headlined by Melania Trump, who is accused of plagiarizing lines from Michelle Obamas 2008 speech at the Democratic National Convention.
The Trump campaign has struggled to explain the similarities between the two speeches. Top aide Paul Manafort eventually blamed presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.
It’s just another example, as far as we’re concerned, that when Hillary Clinton is threatened by a female, the first thing she does is try to destroy the person,” Manafort said.
Andrew Rafferty has been a political reporter for NBCNews.com since 2013. Rafferty writes and reports on politics for the web, and shoots and produces video for all NBC platforms.
Rafferty began at NBC News through a fellowship at “Meet The Press.”
He is from Buffalo, N.Y., and attended John Carroll University in Ohio.
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What Makes The 2024 Presidential Election Unique
The lead up to the 2024 presidential election is different from past years because of former President Donald Trump. Hes eligible to run for a second term, and has publicly toyed with the idea while also weighing in on other Republicans he thinks could be the future of the party. If Trump does run in 2024, hed start out with unparalleled name ID and massive support, but if he doesnt, the field could be wide open for other Republicans hoping to win over his supporters. President Joe Biden said recently he expects to run for reelection in 2024.
This early on, wannabe candidates must raise their profiles, show their commitment to the party, and raise money, one Republican strategist said, to get on peoples radars even when your candidacy is in a holding pattern.
Some of the most visible 2024 presidential candidates will surely flame out long before the Iowa caucus, and theres always the chance that the next Republican nominee isnt yet considered a serious player . Theres a million and one things that will happen between now and then that will shape the race in ways we cant now predict, but the invisible primary that comes before any votes are cast has started.
Heres your very early guide to some of 2024s Republican presidential candidates, based on early polling, interviews with Republican donors and strategists and results from online political betting markets.
Homing In On How Trump Could Have Only One Term
Trump has been president once before. That means he only has another four years in the Oval Office if he wins another term. Because presidents historically tend to lose their party’s majority in Congress after two years in office, Trump likely could only pass most of his agenda during his first two years.
Other Republican candidates would be running for president with the possibility of serving two terms. Republican rivals could regularly use that fact to contrast themselves with Trump. It would be a way to differentiate themselves without bashing Trump’s policies or criticizing him personally.
“At the end of the day people will be looking through the prism of electability,” said Sam Nunberg, who worked on Trump’s 2016 campaign. “Ultimately, he can only serve one term. That’s a reason that some voters may be skeptical of voting for him. He’s a lame duck by around June of 2025.”
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