What The Data Say
There have been a number of assessments of a Sanders-Trump contest, particularly through the lens of a comparative contest between Trump and former vice president Joe Biden.
One of the more thorough was earlier this month in the Economist. In it and a supplemental Twitter thread, G. Elliott Morris argued that there are two ways in which more-moderate candidates see benefit in general election contests: by winning more swing voters and because more-partisan candidates tend to amplify turnout among the opposing party.
Morris was specifically considering the advantages Biden enjoyed, writing that Biden could perform better than his competitors against Mr. Trump. He is more moderate than Mr. Sanders, so both more likely to attract swing voters and less likely to motivate Republicans to vote against him. His strength with both black and racially conservative white voters could make a big difference in swing states.
But the corollary is clear: Perhaps Sanders ispoorly positioned against Trump.
Patrick Ruffini, a Republican pollster with Echelon Insights, similarly compared Biden and Sanders. Sanders fares better against Trump with younger voters, but Biden does better with other groups. There’s overlap here with ideology, obviously, since younger voters tend to be more liberal. But Sanders, he wrote, could well end up giving back some of Dems’ post-2016 white college gains.”
Both Hillary Clinton And Bernie Sanders Could Beat Donald Trump Poll Says
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leads Trump 52 percent to 44 percent among registered voters and Sen. Bernie Sanders leads Trump 55 percent to 43 percent,according to the poll.
These estimates line up with other polling data HuffPost Pollsters average has shown Clinton and Sanders polling higher than Trump, although prinmary poll matchups arent predictive of what will happen once the general election campaigns start.
But if Sens. Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz were nominated instead of Trump, Clinton might face more of an uphill battle, according to the poll Rubio tops Clinton at 50 percent to 47 percent and Cruz slightly leads 49 percent to 48 percent.
Sanders, meanwhile, holds a steady lead over all top three Republican candidates in the poll 57 percent to 40 percent against Cruz, 55 percent to 43 percent against Trump, and 53 percent to 45 percent against Rubio.
The independent senator is also viewed as the most favorable candidate in both parties, with 60 percent of registered voters holding a positive view of him, whereas the majority of voters view both Clinton and Trump unfavorably. However, Sanders hasnt yet faced the scrutiny that he would face in a general election campaign.
Voters in 13 states and one U.S. territory head to the polls Tuesday to vote in primaries or caucuses.
Democrats Are Becoming More Okay With The Idea Of Government
With Sen Elizabeth Warren tiptoeing away from it, Sanders is alone on the debate stage embracing replacing private insurance with government-run health insurance. But in Nevada, entrance polls showed a clear majority of those going to caucus on Saturday supported Medicare-for-all.
Nationally, Democrats seem more okay with it, too. Sanders has made his campaign synonymous with Medicare-for-all. In the Post-ABC poll, 62 percent of Democratic-leaning adults say Sanders is about right on the liberal spectrum, putting him on par with more moderate candidates who oppose it, like Biden and former South Bend, Ind., mayor Pete Buttigieg.
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Why Sanders Doubts Biden Could Create A Turnout Wave
Vice President Joe Biden launched his campaign on the pitch of saving “the soul of this nation” from eight years of Trump at the helm, and his candidacy hinged on being uniquely positioned to do that. Sanders said he doubted Biden could generate the enthusiasm for a broad voter turnout he thinks is necessary to defeat Trump.
Sanders called Biden a friend, but singled out his votes for the Iraq War, disastrous trade agreements, and a terrible bankruptcy bill critics, including fellow candidate U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, argue prioritized credit card companies over people seeking bankruptcy protections.
To win, we need energy, we need excitement, we need the largest voter turnout in American history, Sanders said in the interview. And I don’t think Joe’s record will allow him to do that, and I think we are the campaign to do that.
Bernie Sanders Isn’t Even My Favorite Senator Running For The 2020 Nomination But I See His Potential To Unite The Democratic Party And Oust Trump
If moderate Democrats are serious when they say their only concern is beating President Donald Trump, they should get used to the thought of backing Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont.
If you believe in saving democracy, the courts and the planet, and reversing the unrepentant cruelty, corruption and carelessness that define the current administration, you have a duty to at least consider the candidacy of the most popular senator in America, the top fundraiser in the Democratic primaries, and the man who has generally beaten Trump in head-to-head polls for five years now.
Sure, you cant ignore a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll that shows socialism half of Sanders democratic socialist brand about as unpopular as capitalism is popular. Conventional wisdom suggests Republicans would love to run against a socialist as the stock market continually hits new highs, raising all boats that happen to float on a sea of 401s.
But every expert in conventional wisdom has one thing in common: Not one of them has ever beaten Trump.
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How Has Sanders Responded
CNN quoted Warren aides as saying she had been told by Mr Sanders during a private meeting that a woman could not win.
In his response, he said the comment had been made up by staff who werent in the room and are lying about what happened.
Joe Biden embarks on his No Malarkey bus tour
The Vermont senator told CNN: It is ludicrous to believe that at the same meeting where Elizabeth Warren told me she was going to run for president, I would tell her that a woman couldnt win.
What I did say that night was that Donald Trump is a sexist, a racist and a liar who would weaponise whatever he could.
Do I believe a woman can win in 2020? Of course! After all Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump by 3 million votes in 2016.
But later on Monday, Ms Warren stood by the allegation. Among the topics that came up was what would happen if Democrats nominated a female candidate, she said in a statement.
I thought a woman could win, he disagreed. The Massachusetts senator added: I have no interest in discussing this private meeting any further because Bernie and I have far more in common than our differences on punditry.
She added that the two remained friends and allies.
Would Republican Attacks Knock The More Moderate Candidates Down To Sanderss Level
One concern about our findings is that Republicans who say they would vote for Biden or Buttigieg might not really do so in November, after the general election campaign has heated up. After months of sustained attacks from Trump and Republicans throughout the general election, would the more moderate candidates still be more electable than Sanders?
To examine this possibility, we first conducted an experiment to identify effective attacks against each of the Democratic candidates. For example, Bidens historical support for freezing Social Security benefits undermined his support, but hearing about Buttigiegs sexual orientation and the fact that he met his husband online did not decrease his support.
Then, to examine the resiliency of each Democrats support in the general election in the face of effective attacks, we showed some of our survey respondents the three attacks that were most effective against each Democrat before asking them who they would vote for in a contest between that Democrat and Trump.
After showing three attacks against each candidate, we find that Sanders would still need the same large youth turnout surge to overcome his deficit relative to the more moderate candidates against Trump. When we analyze the data using the same approach described above that disregards what voters say about whether they will vote, we find that, after being shown the attacks, Buttigieg, Bloomberg, and Biden still do better against Trump than Sanders does.
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Aoc Is The Democrats Best Shot Against Trump In 2024
When Barack Obama came out of nowhere to win his Senate seat in 2004, it almost felt preordained. As if he was the person we had been waiting for to breathe fresh air into the Democratic Party.
Flash forward to 2018, and the meteoric rise of a 29-year-old bartender from Queens feels eerily similar. She has been unafraid, unapologetic and unwilling to bend to the will of Washington. She is a force to be reckoned with, and in 2024 Democrats are going to need her force to reckon with Republicans.
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is less of a personality and more of a movement. Yes, the smart, photogenic congresswoman is the face of the rising progressive movement, but she is also the future of the Democratic Party. AOC has cultivated a following beyond politics. Shes an influencer in its purest form. Her ability to relate to her supporters and allow them a glimpse into her private life is a blueprint for Democrats trying to act less like mannequins and more like humans.
Shes the voice of a movement that began after the banks were bailed out by the government, while homeowners were left to default. The simplicity with which she talks about everyday struggles hints that shes not just a persona for consumption. She isnt beholden to corporations, is a prodigious small-dollar fundraiser, and could out-Trump Trump like no other politician has been able to.
Michael Starr Hopkins is a founding partner at Northern Starr Strategies.
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Bernie Sanderssparks New Meme W/ Capitol Steps Pic Amid Vote
Bernie Sanders is firing up the meme machine again — this time by posing in the thick of summer and looking dog-tired while hard at work … a shot that’s worth a thousand words.
The Vermont senator was photographed Sunday laying out on the Capitol Hill steps, where he appeared to be kind of exhausted after a marathon day of work known as Vote-a-Rama … where congressmen and women are going through hours of debate/votes on legislation.
Big Vote-a-rama energy with on the steps of the Senate, as the Senate enters hour 13.
According to the photog, reporter Kent Nishimura, the Senate was entering its 13th hour of the overnight marathon when this pic was taken … and as you can imagine, it’s catching fire.
For starters, some say this makes a great album cover … if BS was into music. Others say he very much resembles the ‘School of Rock’ cartoon, Bill, from the famed sketch, “I’m Just a Bill,” where the rolled-up paper character is also lying down on the Capitol steps.
In other words … it’s just a great photo, perhaps equally meme-able as his other famous photo from 2021 when he was captured nestled up in a sweater and mittens during Biden’s inauguration … which also set the internet ablaze with jokes up the wazoo.
This seems to be the summer version … and funny enough, it’s kind of the exact opposite vibe as his mitten meme. Bernie out here trying to beat the heat and letting it all hang out.
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Can Bernie Sanders Beat Donald Trump Here’s The Reality
- Opinion by John Avlon
You’d be forgiven for thinking that there are no rules in politics and there’s nothing more to learn from history.
Donald Trump was a populist outsider who violated all the rules of politics. He did not care about the Republican Party and he didn’t try to build a broad coalition. But he was beloved by his base, even as the GOP establishment warned he would be a disastrous nominee.
Now, many people are seeing a replay of that same script with the rise of Bernie Sanders. There’s no question that this outsider has built a populist movement and moved the debate inside the Democratic Party . His supporters are passionate and quick to condemn the Democratic establishment.
Ask Anyone If They Support Medicare For All With Absolutely No Qualifiers And The Approval Rating
|is much higher.Right wing talking point Ask them if they support Medicare for All but they will lose their private insurance and the approval rating goes down.Ask them if they support Medicare for All, private insurance will be all but eliminated and any possible tax increase will be more than offset for the vast majority of the people by the elimination of deductibles, co-pays, premiums, that dental, vision and hearing will be covered as well, of course that approval rating is unknown because the questions by the pollsters are never phrased that way. Candidate preference:Undecided|
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Opinionhow A Socialist Candidate Can Win The Us Presidential Election In 2020
The social forces that propelled Sanders to the national stage in 2016 after years as an obscure voice for progress seemed to surprise even him and even more so than last time, hes running to win, not just to start a conversation.
Of course, his candidacy would never have taken off the way it did in 2016 or again in 2020 if grassroots movements like Occupy Wall Street and Black Lives Matter hadn’t empowered regular, working class people to talk about our political-economic system’s failure to deliver on their promises for all but a lucky few. And, more recently, the nationwide wave of teachers strikes both fed into, and was fed by, the movement behind Sanders.
Bernie Is Too Divisive To Be President
Bernie Sanders can absolutely defeat Donald Trump, write Meagan Day and Matt Karp of Jacobin Magazine. Americans chose Trump over Hillary Clinton, a centrist from the Democratic establishment who was correctly seen as someone who would maintain the status quo. Her inability to motivate voters resulted in low turnouts among Democrats, handing Trump victory. Sanders is creating a huge surge of enthusiasm across the country, crucially so in the Obama-voting counties that chose Trump in 2016. His ability to motivate groups, like young people and minorities, is unmatched. Coming from the outside, he offers a refreshing message that resonates with voters.
Bernie Sanders is too risky of a candidate to beat Donald Trump, asserts Timothy Egan of the New York Times. While his ideas have fuelled a much-needed national conversation on healthcare and income inequality, Americans are uneasy about a democratic socialist in the White House. Whether he can replicate his popularity among young people with the rest of the population in a general election is doubtful. Additionally, his politics will make him a major target for Republicans, who will go after him with everything they have. The ‘socialism’ label will hurt him here and give Trump a major advantage. Democrats need to choose a more unifying candidate.
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Joe Bidens Win In South Carolina Is Unlikely To Halt Bernies Momentum
What is at stake this year in American politics is enormous. In the primary elections, looking beyond the establishment may be the key to beating Donald Trump in November.
For all of 2019, Joe Biden claimed he was the best-placed Democrat to beat Trump in the November 2020 presidential election. This claim seemed reasonable in theory, until you actually listened to Biden meeting voters or debating his Democratic opponents. Biden on the stump or the debate stage is often a verbal train wreck: he has an uncanny ability to start any sentence with the opposite of what he is trying to say, and then needs to spend the rest of the sentence explaining what he meant to say.
Competing against the slick talking Peter Buttigieg and the clear and passionate Bernie Sanders, Biden has looked unimpressive. The early results in Iowa and New Hampshire reflected this. However, after the South Carolina primary this weekend, Joe Biden is declaring himself the comeback kid. The math tells us that Biden has once again spoken too soon. Only 63 delegates were at stake in South Carolina, and although Biden won a handsome share of these, it is important to know that 1,357 delegates are up for grabs this week in the Super Tuesday primaries, which are held across 14 states.
This article is published under a Creative Commons Licence and may be republished with attribution.
Bernie Vs The Billionaire
Perhaps the most promising feature of this scenario, though, is the vivid contrast made possible by a binary choice between Sanders and Trump.
Because Bernies politics emphasize class conflict, a Trump-Sanders contest promises to be not a mere clash of values and norms, of milieus and manners, but a referendum on the role of the rich and the rest in our society, with each contender representing different sides of the divide.
Sanders has already given us a preview of what this will look like. When he launched his campaign in March, he contrasted his upbringing to Trumps, saying, I did not have a father who gave me millions of dollars to build luxury skyscrapers, casinos, and country clubs. I did not come from a family that gave me a $200,000 allowance every year beginning at the age of three.
He continued, Unlike Donald Trump, who shut down the government and left 800,000 federal employees without income to pay their bills, I know what its like to be in a family that lives paycheck-to-paycheck.
In a rhetorical flourish that underscored the social implications of Trumps profiteering and juxtaposed them to his own lifelong commitment to equality, Sanders added, I did not come from a family that taught me to build a corporate empire through housing discrimination. I protested housing discrimination, was arrested for protesting school segregation.
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