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How Is Donald Trump Polling

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These new poll numbers are bad news for President Trump

Former President Donald Trump’s attorneys are asserting the top-secret government documents seized by FBI agents last month are subject to executive privilege because the former president scribbled handwritten notes on them.

Via Politico’s Kyle Cheney, Trump’s attorneys made this argument in a footnote in their latest court filing in which they argue the handwritten notes mean that the documents “could certainly contain privileged information,” thus “further supporting the need for an independent, third-party review of these documents.”

Cheney also notes that Trump’s lawyers’ major argument is that the burden is on the Department of Justice to prove that the documents in question are still classified, even as they acknowledge that the documents were marked as classified at the time of their seizure at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort.

“The government again presupposes that the documents it claims are classified are, in fact, classified and their segregation is inviolable,” they argue. “However, the government has not yet proven this critical fact.”

Trump’s legal team has so far avoided explicitly saying that the former president declassified the documents he brought with him to Mar-a-Lago, and is now arguing that it is the DOJ’s job to prove that he didn’t do so.

All spacecraft that land on Mars eject equipment like this protective shell on their way to the Martian surface. NASA/JPL-Caltech

Upset Enough To Carry A Protest Sign For An Entire Day

But hovering over the entire poll is a deep dissatisfaction from the American public.

Three-quarters of voters 74% say the country is headed in the wrong direction, representing the fifth-straight NBC News survey showing this number in the 70s.

Additionally, 58% believe Americas best days are behind it, which is the highest percentage on this question dating back to 1990.

Another 68% of voters think the United States is currently in an economic recession.

And six in 10 61% say theyre so upset by something that theyre willing to carry a protest sign for an entire day.

Asked what their protest sign would say, the top responses among Democratic voters are Womens rights, Equal rights, Prosecute Trump and Abortion rights.

And the top responses among Republican voters are Impeach Biden, Protect our freedom, Protect 2nd Amendment, and Stop Democrats.

The NBC News poll was conducted Aug. 12-16 of 1,000 registered voters including 750 reached by cell phone and it has an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points.

Trump Support Collapses Majority Of Independents Don’t Want 2024 Run: Poll

Six out of 10 Americans do not want Donald Trump to run for office again, with a significant number of independent voters appearing to turn against the former president, according to a poll.

The survey, conducted by PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist, found that 61 percent of Americans do not want to see the Republican on the ballot in 2024.

While Trump’s overall support for reelection has not changed since December 2020, the former president has lost the backing of the key independent demographic. The latest poll found that just 28 percent of independents believe Trump should run for office again, while more than two-thirds say he should not.

According to exit polling from the last election, 41 percent of independents had voted for Trump over Biden, suggesting the former president is hemorrhaging their support since he left office.

Jim Holladay, an independent voter from North Carolina, told PBS NewsHour that he was one of those who voted for Trump in 2020 but now believes he let another Republican step forward.

Holladay said he no longer supports Trump because the former president has done some “borderline stupid” things, such as remove classified documents from the White House and keep them at his Mar-a-Lago resort and allegedly incite the January 6, 2021 riot at the U.S. Capitol.

Newsweek reached out to Trump for comment.

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Question1 Do You Approve Or Disapprove Of The Way Joe Biden Is Handling His Job As President

                     ADULTS.....................................................                                                               WHITE........                                                               4 YR COLL DEG                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    NoApprove              37%     3%    80%    28%    30%    43%    50%    25%Disapprove           52     95     11     56     58     45     46     65DK/NA                12      3      9     15     12     12      4     10                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HspApprove              31%    39%    37%    43%    26%    40%    33%    65%    33%Disapprove           48     50     55     53     65     53     59     22     51DK/NA                21     11      8      4      9      8      8     13     16

Polls: Joe Biden Jumps While Donald Trump Slumps

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President Joe Bidens approval ratings are soaring, after a summer filled with legislative wins few predicted, and policy initiatives pundits declared would harm him but have helped the country, and the Presidents poll numbers as a result.

NBC News reports Donald Trumps approval among registered voters now sits at just 34%, and President Joe Biden at 45%. Usually, over time, former presidents approval ratings go up, but not Trumps. With just 20% of those polled rating him very positive and another 14% merely positive its Trumps lowest over a year.

President Bidens approval is his best since last October, an 11-month high.

Democrats have pulled even with Republicans ahead of Novembers midterm elections, fueled by six in 10 voters who disapprove of the Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade President Joe Bidens approval rating improving to its highest mark since October and by Donald Trumps favorability rating dropping to its lowest point in more than a year, NBC News adds.

Donald Trump, under at least four criminal investigations, isnt an announced candidate yet.

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Last week the Associated Presss poll showed President Biden also at 45%, up a whopping nine points over his July approval rating.

There are just 50 days until Election Day, far less with early voting.

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Donald Trump’s Approval Rating Plunges To Lowest Point In Over A Year: Poll

Donald Trump’s positive approval rating is at its lowest point in more than a year, whereas President Joe Biden is seeing his highest score in months, according to a poll.

A survey released by NBC News found that Trump currently has a 54 percent negative approval rating, with a 34 percent positive approval.

Trump had the same 54 percent negative approval rating in an August NBC News poll, but with a slightly higher positive approval of 36 percent.

In comparison, Trump also had a 36 percent positive approval rating in May and March 2022, 37 percent in January 2022, and 38 percent in August and October 2021.

The former president’s overall favorability rating of 54 percent positive and 34 percent negative has not been as low since an April 2021 NBC poll, when he recorded 55 percent negative and 32 percent positive numbers.

The poll also found that while Biden’s overall approval rating is still underwater, he is currently seeing the highest positive score in nearly a year.

Biden’s latest NBC favorability rating has him at 45 percent positiveup 3 points from last month and the highest it has been since October 2021and 52 percent negative.

Elsewhere, the poll revealed that voters are currently split when asked who they back in the midterms, with the GOP and Democrat Party at 46 percent when voters asked who they believe should control Congress.

The Former President Remains A Potent Force In Republican Politics

For Mr. Trump, bleeding that amount of Republican support would represent a sharp increase compared with the already troubling level of the partys vote he shed during his last race.

In 2020, 9 percent of Republicans voted for someone other than Mr. Trump, while Mr. Biden lost just 4 percent of Democrats, according to AP VoteCast, a large study of the 2020 electorate by NORC at the University of Chicago for The Associated Press.

Kenneth Abreu, a 62-year-old pharmaceutical executive from Pennsylvania, said he had voted Republican for three decades but would support Mr. Biden instead of voting again for Mr. Trump.

Unlike all these other people who believe every word he says, Im done, Mr. Abreu said. All the garbage hes been talking about, the lies, Jan. 6, the whole thing I just lost all respect for him.

How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.

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Bidens Job Rating Remains In The Low Forties

The poll was also conducted after a strong stretch for President Biden, which included Congress passing climate and health care legislation and the Bureau of Labor Statistics reporting that 528,000 jobs had been created last month.

But the survey doesnt show a significant improvement in the presidents standing, with 42% of registered voters approving of Bidens job performance and 55% disapproving.

In May, Bidens job approval stood at 42% among registered voters and 39% among all adults.

The president enjoys his highest approval rating among Democrats , Black voters , urban residents and women , while he has some of his lowest ratings among Latinos , men , those 18-34 , rural residents and Republicans .

On the issues, 40% approve of Bidens handling of the economy , and 39% give him a thumbs-up on foreign policy .

Looking ahead to Novembers midterm elections, 47% of registered voters prefer Republicans winning control of Congress, while 45% want Democrats in charge.

In Mays poll, the parties were tied on this question: 46%-46%.

Donald Trump Under 50% Against Ron Desantis In Fresh 2024 Pollingis A Clash Of Titans Inevitable

Lofgren reacts to Trumps CPAC poll numbers

House Republicans give Carolina Amesty cash lift as she faces Allie Braswell

A new national poll shows that while former President Donald Trump would defeat Gov. Ron DeSantis in a hypothetical 2024 Primary, he may not be able to claim majority support.

A survey conducted by Yahoo! and YouGov between Aug. 18 and Aug. 22 shows Trump getting just 49% in a 2024 head-to-head duel, one that requires the caveat that no such national Primary exists.

DeSantis received 31% in the survey, with an additional 21% of the 543 Republican and Republican-leaning respondents not sure whether they preferred the former President or the Florida Governor.

The Trump versus DeSantis question has been probed before, of course. This survey added a third element, Wyoming U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney, who seems to be in the early stages of running a Never Trump-styled campaign in 2024.

Remarkably, Trump polls better when Cheney is added to the hypothetical. He drew 50% support from respondents, with 32% for DeSantis , and just 6% for Cheney. 13% of respondents couldnt decide.

Though DeSantis didnt seriously challenge Trump in either scenario overall, independent voters who leaned toward voting in the 2024 Republican Primary did prefer the Governor whether Cheney was in play or not.

In a two-person field, 38% of Independents liked DeSantis, with 36% picking Trump.

A.G. Gancarski

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Why Polls Were Mostly Wrong

Princetons Sam Wang had to eat his words in 2016. He talks about the impacts of the pandemic and QAnon on public-opinion tallies in 2020

In the weeks leading up to the November 2016 election, polls across the country predicted an easy sweep for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. From Vanuatu to Timbuktu, everyone knows what happened. Media outlets and pollsters took the heat for failing to project a victory for Donald Trump. The polls were ultimately right about the popular vote. But they missed the mark in key swing states that tilted the Electoral College toward Trump.

This time, prognosticators made assurances that such mistakes were so2016. But as votes were tabulated on November 3, nervous viewers and pollsters began to experience a sense of déjà vu. Once again, more ballots were ticking toward President Trump than the polls had projected. Though the voter surveys ultimately pointed in the wrong direction for only two statesNorth Carolina and Florida, both of which had signaled a win for Joe Bidenthey incorrectly gauged just how much of the overall vote would go to Trump in both red and blue states. In states where polls had favored Biden, the vote margin went to Trump by a median of 2.6 additional percentage points. And in Republican states, Trump did even better than the polls had indicatedby a whopping 6.4 points.

How did the polling errors for the 2020 election compare with those we saw in the 2016 contest?

Direction Of The Country

HIGHLIGHTS

  • The percentage of Americans who felt the country was headed in the right direction ranged from 43% to 20% during President Trump’s term, with a termwide overall average of 35%.
  • The percentage of Americans who felt the country was headed in the wrong direction ranged from 72% to 43% during President Trump’s term, with a termwide overall average of 58%.
  • The direction of the country spreadthe difference between the percentage of Americans who felt the country was headed in the right direction and those who felt the country was headed in the wrong directionranged from a net 4% to a net 53% who felt the country was headed in the wrong direction during President Trump’s term. The overall termwide average was a net 23% of Americans who felt the country was headed in the wrong direction.
  • Direction of the country rating, 2017-2021
    Year
    -53%

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    Question22 How Much Of The Responsibility If Any Do You Think Former President Trump Bears For The Storming Of The Us Capitol On January 6th: A Lot Some Not Much Or None At All

                         ADULTS.....................................................                                                               WHITE........                                                               4 YR COLL DEG                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    NoA lot                42%     5%    81%    36%    33%    50%    53%    27%Some                 15     15     11     19     18     13     11     14Not much             13     21      1     17     16     10     14     18None at all          27     56      5     26     31     25     20     37DK/NA                 3      3      2      2      3      3      3      4                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HspA lot                39%    42%    42%    46%    28%    43%    36%    77%    42%Some                 23     17     12      8     13     13     13      9     20Not much             13     10     13     16     20     14     17      2     12None at all          23     25     30     29     36     27     31     10     25DK/NA                 2      5      2      1      4      3      4      1      1

    Question1a Do You Approve Or Disapprove Of The Way Joe Biden Is Handling His Job As President Combined With: Do You Strongly Or Somewhat Approve/disapprove

    Not Voting Is The #1 Cause Of Unwanted Presidencies Funny Donald Trump ...
                         ADULTS.....................................................                                                               WHITE........                                                               4 YR COLL DEG                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    NoApprove strongly     18%     1%    45%    12%    13%    23%    27%    10%Approve smwht        18      2     34     16     16     20     23     14Disapprove smwht      8      8      6     10      8      8      6      6Disapprove strongly  43     87      5     46     49     37     40     58DK/NA                12      3      9     16     13     12      4     11                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HspApprove strongly      8%    18%    20%    31%    11%    21%    16%    36%    18%Approve smwht        23     20     17     12     15     18     17     28     14Disapprove smwht     18      4      4      5      6      6      6      8     12Disapprove strongly  29     46     51     48     58     46     52     14     39DK/NA                22     11      9      5     10      8      9     13     17

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    Question6 Overall Do You Think The Country Is Better Off Or Worse Off Today Than It Was A Year Ago

                         ADULTS.....................................................                                                               WHITE........                                                               4 YR COLL DEG                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    NoBetter               41%     5%    76%    38%    37%    45%    53%    25%Worse                52     94     14     56     56     48     44     70SAME             5      1      7      4      4      5      1      3DK/NA                 3      -      2      2      3      2      2      3                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HspBetter               44%    43%    37%    40%    30%    38%    34%    67%    42%Worse                44     51     58     56     65     58     61     24     50SAME             8      4      4      2      2      2      2      7      4DK/NA                 4      2      2      2      3      2      2      2      4

    Question9 Overall Do You Think Donald Trump Has Had A Mainly Positive Or Mainly Negative Impact On

                         ADULTS.....................................................                                                               WHITE........                                                               4 YR COLL DEG                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    NoPositive             41%    84%     4%    45%    48%    35%    37%    58%Negative             51      9     94     47     44     58     60     36DK/NA                 8      7      2      8      8      7      4      7                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HspPositive             33%    36%    47%    49%    57%    45%    50%    12%    37%Negative             56     54     47     49     36     50     44     81     51DK/NA                11      9      6      3      7      5      6      7     12

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    China Seen As A Rising Power

    Respondents to the survey were read a list of seven major nations, and for each one, were asked whether they think it is playing a more important, less important, or as important of a role in the world compared with 10 years ago. Among the seven countries tested, China stands apart: A median of 70% across the nations polled say Beijing plays a more important role today than a decade ago. Half or more in 23 of 25 countries express this view.

    Many also say this about Russia. A median of 42% believe Moscows role on the world stage has grown over the past decade, and majorities hold this view in Greece, Israel, Tunisia and Russia itself. Overall, people are split on whether Germanys role is greater than it was 10 years ago or about the same, but many in Europe see Germanys role as more influential. On the other hand, Europeans are particularly likely to think the UK is less important now.

    There is no real consensus in views of Americas prominence in world affairs. A median of 35% believe it is as important as it was 10 years ago, while 31% say it is more important and 25% say less. Japan is the only country with a majority saying that Washington plays a less important role. Meanwhile, Israelis, Nigerians and Kenyans are particularly likely to think the U.S. is more important than it used to be.

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