How Trump And Biden Supporters Would React To Victory And Defeat
When asked about their reactions to the outcome of the November 2020 election, voters say they would have more positive reactions to Biden winning the election than to Trump being reelected president. And voters reactions to Trumps possible reelection are more intense both positively and negatively than to a Biden victory.
About half of registered voters say they would be excited or relieved if Biden was elected president, while 47% say they would be disappointed or angry.
Among voters who say they would react positively to a Biden victory, far more would be relieved than excited . Among those who expect to react negatively, more say they would be disappointed than angry .
More voters say they would react to a Trump victory with negative than positive emotions. Nearly twice as many voters say they would be angry if Trump wins reelection than if Biden is elected president .
Yet somewhat more voters also say they would be excited by a Trump victory than a Biden victory.
Although both Trump and Biden supporters express positive reactions to their own candidate winning the November election, Trump supporters are about twice as likely to say to say they would be excited if their candidate won the 2020 election than Biden supporters are of their own candidate.
What The Deluge Of Final Polls Can Tell Us
And indeed although nobody needs any reminders of this after 2016 Trump can win. All the election models are bullish on Biden, but they are united in that a Trump win is still plausibledespite his seemingly steep deficit in polls.
A huge part of why our model and others think Trump can still win is the Electoral College. Trump has only a 3 percent chance of winning the popular vote in our model. Other models put his chances at less than 1 percent. Its very likely that Democrats will win the popular vote for the seventh time in the last eight elections.
But while a roughly 8-point deficit in the popular vote is hard to overcome as of this writing, at 7:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, our model forecasts Biden to win the popular vote by 7.8 percentage points a 5-point gap is a lot easier to close. And thats our current forecast in Pennsylvania: Biden wins by 4.7 points. Note the roughly 3-point gap between the popular vote and the outcome in Pennsylvania, the most likely tipping-point state. Thats similar to 2016, when Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by around 2 points but lost the tipping-point state, Wisconsin, by just a little under 1 point.
Or if you want a more sophisticated version of this, we can look at how often Biden is projected to win the Electoral College from various potential margins in the popular vote:1
Biden needs a popular vote cushion
|Popular vote margin|
|< 1||< 1|
Bidens lead in Pennsylvania is narrow
Trump Will Likely Win Reelection In 2020
More than two dozen Democrats reportedly are eyeing the possibility of challenging President Donald Trump in 2020.
Media darling Beto ORourke has met with former President Barack Obama.
Former Vice President Joe Biden claims that he is the most qualified person in the country to be president.
Sen. Kamala Harris says she will make her presidential decision over the holiday.
The Boston Globe editorial board praised former Massachusetts Democratic governor Deval Patrick for calling it quits on 2020, and suggested that the Bay States senior Senator Elizabeth Warren would be wise to heed his example.
Hillary Clinton would like to run for a third time, but slumping ticket prices on her current speaking tour are an ominous sign.
And then there is Sen. Bernie Sanders, who lost the Democratic nomination to Clinton in 2016 but who is nevertheless mulling a bid as well.
Simply put, 2020 is about to get pretty wild on the Democrats side of the ledger, and no one should be shocked if it descends into a no-holds-barred mosh pit of progressive egos slamming each other and Trump at every turn.
Let us also not forget about the mainstream media who will be salivating and panting for the next year and half over who will represent their beloved blue team in the big head-to-head contest.
Still, it is important to keep a few things in mind.
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Michael Moore Predicts Trump Will Win Re
Filmmaker and activist Michael Moore predicted that President Donald Trump will win re-election in 2020 in a Monday interview with Fast Company but the Trump critic has a plan to stop it from happening.
I should say re-appointed, because we will have an even larger population that will vote against him in 2020, Moore told the magazine. But he will win those electoral states as it stands now.
Moore, who recently took the Broadway audience from his politically charged, one-man show The Terms of My Surrender to Trump Tower to protest the president, was one of the few newsmakers who correctly predicted Trump would actually defeat Hillary Clinton and win the presidency.
Heres the good news: We dont have to convince a single Trump voter to vote differently because we already have the majority, Moore told the magazine in a reference to Clinton winning the popular vote but not the Electoral College.
Moore pointed to the National Popular Vote interstate compact, which is an agreement between states that they would give all electoral votes to whoever wins the popular vote. Moore feels that if enough states agree by 2020, it will help kick Trump out of the White House. So far, 10 states and Washington D.C. have agreed, according to Fast Company.
Related stories from TheWrap:
You Can Certainly See How He Could Win: Why Trump Isnt Done Yet
Retain the Sun Belt and hold Pennsylvania: That, in a nutshell, is Trump’s narrow path to four more years.
President Donald Trump throws a hat to supporters before he speaks at a campaign rally on Oct. 31 in Reading, Pa. | Alex Brandon/AP Photo
Everything would have to break exactly right for Donald Trump to win reelection.
But the recipe for an upset is there.
Trump is polling within striking distance of Joe Biden in Florida, North Carolina and Arizona. Republicans aregaining on Democrats in the early vote in Florida. If the president can carry the Sun Belt states he won in 2016 and beat Biden in Pennsylvania, he could well hold the White House for four more years.
For as bad as all this st is, said Jeff Roe, the Republican strategist who steered Ted Cruzs 2016 presidential campaign, you can certainly see how he could win.
Its a big if resting on a tower of uncertainties explosive Republican turnout on Election Day, including among new, same-day registrants tepid enthusiasm for Biden, especially among young people of color disruptions at polling places that depress Democratic turnout legal victories related to ballot counting and a full-on embrace of Trump by the few voters who remain undecided.
Overall,forecasters put Trumps odds at about one in 10.
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Trumps Court Picks Could Help Him Win Reelection
As voting is already under way across America, so are Republican efforts to limit voting. And Donald Trumps party is likely to see more favorable rulings in election-related disputes reaching the federal appeals courts given that theyre now filled with the presidents appointees. Trump has appointed more judges to the appeals courtsthe last stop for federal cases before the Supreme Court and where the majority of federal litigation endsthan any other president during the first three years in office, the New YorkTimes reported in March. In looking at a series of recent voting-rights rulings at the appellate level, the Times now find that the conservative makeup of the courts could help Trumps reelection chances.
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Joe Rogan Reveals If He Will Ever Host Donald Trump On His Podcast
We refused any payment. Some said that Trump was suspicious of those he paid, worried that he was being ripped off. We felt that by turning down any formal role in the campaign, we could skirt the infighting that raged inside, Morris said.
We also decided, jointly with the president, that the calls and our consulting role should be kept secret. And so it remained for the ensuing seven months.
Morris also chuckled about what he learned about Trump: You cant change his aggressive, forceful personality.
Trump is Trump. Like it or lump it. Hell never change, and I came to realize that his manner could not be divorced from his successful outcomes. Change one, and you would forfeit the other, he said.
He previously said the 2024 contest could be a rematch between Trump and Hillary Clinton.
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Donald Trump Will Win Re
DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach .
When I said that I think Trump is going to win in 2016, I also said that, if you think 2016 is weird, just wait for 2020. Well, if you think 2020 is weird, just wait until 2024. You aint seen nothing yet.
Thats Bond King billionaire and DoubleLine Capital boss Jeffrey Gundlach striking an ominous tone in comments he reportedly made this week at Schwabs 2020 IMPACT conference,
Gundlach was quoted by Financial Advisor magazine as saying that he expects widening economic inequality to bring about some sort of revolution by 2027, with the 2024 presidential election directly in the path of massive social, economic and political change.
For now, Gundlach, in contrast to what the polls are showing, believes, just as he did back in 2016, that next weeks election will go Trumps way.
Mind you, my conviction is way lower than it was four years ago, he explained. But back in , when Trump was little more than an asterisk in the betting odds, I predicted he was going to win. This one is much more murky, but in my eyes it favors a Trump win.
And while some would say Trumps re-election poses a risk to markets and global stability, Gundlach sees it differently. You might dislike Trump or some of his policies, but risk is not what youre getting with him, particularly compared to turning the presidency over to another party, and particularly when that partys candidate isnt saying what some of his policy positions are, he said.
Wall Street Predicts Trump Will Win Reelection In 2020
Chris note: Over the last few days, weve featured the details behind one of the most powerful and accurate stock-picking systems in the world.
Of course, Im talking about my colleague Jason Bodners system. It scans thousands of stocks every day. And it zeroes in on the strongest ones that Wall Street is piling into. Best of all, it works.
Since 1990, on average, his system has identified half of the top 5% of names in the S& P 500 each year including the No. 1 stock on the S& P 500 for the past six years in a row.
But heres the thing
Jasons system doesnt just pinpoint the very best stocks to own. It also gets politics right.
And right now, its suggesting that President Trump wont just be a one-term phenomenon.
Heres Jason with the full details
By Jason Bodner, editor, Palm Beach Trader
During the 2016 presidential election, the mainstream media were sizing the White House drapes for Hillary Clinton.
As you can see from the headlines below, the media thought Clinton would be a shoo-in. Most of their polls had her defeating Donald Trump, whom they considered to be politically naïve:
Trump Has a Big Hispanic Problem in FloridaThe New Latino Voice, August 3, 2016
A Different Forecasting Model Shows Big Win for ClintonThe Hill, September 6, 2016
Clintons Odds Rise Again CNN, November 8, 2016
We all know how that turned out
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Voters Think Its Time To Let Other States Besides Iowa And New Hampshire Go First
The Iowa Democratic Party struggled to report complete results for much of the past week after the state caucused last Monday. Precinct chairs reported having difficulties with an app they were supposed to use to report results and struggled to call in the caucus totals as well. Also, confusion over new rules may have led some errors to be introduced into the results. This led to delays in reporting vote totals that werent officially finalized until Sunday.
Though Buttigieg was ultimately awarded the most delegates from Iowa, Sanders won the most support from caucusgoers and his campaign officially asked for a recanvass in many precincts earlier this week.
Iowas issues renewed calls for reforming the entire early caucus and primary system, which currently sees Iowa and New Hampshire going first, nationally. The Monmouth poll showed that voters are relatively split when it comes to readjusting the electoral calendar.
Just over 1 in 4 voters think the current system results in the best candidate being chosen for the nomination, while 52 percent say it makes little difference which state goes first. However, there was a drop in support from last month among Democrats about whether Iowa and New Hampshire should continue to go first, with 7 percent saying the two states should vote first, down from 11 percent.
Biden Team Already Working Toward Transition
Biden will be inaugurated as president on Jan. 20, whether Trump acknowledges his win as legitimate or not. Biden has already begun the process of transitioning to the countrys highest office.
Though Trump has not formally conceded, his administration has granted the new administration access to intelligence briefings, office space, secure computers and other government services, USA TODAY previously reported. Trump tweeted Nov. 23 that the move was made at his recommendation.
The announcement, made by Emily Murphy of the General Services Administration, allocated over $6 million to Bidens transition team for hiring and other transition-related expenses. Since then, Biden has made a number of Cabinet picks, including his chief of staff, Treasury secretary, director of national intelligence, head of the Department of Homeland Security, ambassador to the United Nations, climate change envoy, secretary of State, Defense secretary and Health and Human Services secretary.
Recommended Reading: How To Meet President Trump
Restrict Voting To One Day Using Paper Ballots
Trumps grievances over losing the 2020 election and baseless conspiracy theories about voter fraud have inspired Republican state lawmakers across the country to propose and adopt new voting restrictions. Trump has called for measures such as universal voter ID since disbanding in 2018 the commission he established to back up his false claim of millions of fraudulent votes costing him the 2016 popular vote.
Trump has recently added a demand for same-day voting using paper ballots. That should be our goal, he said at CPAC. The proposal echoes his false claims blaming mail ballots and electronic voting machines for his loss in 2020.
As president, Trump could not change the rules on his own. He could pressure Republican-led state legislatures to pass more restrictions, or he could push for action in Congress. Congress has the power to regulate elections under the Constitution, with past examples including the National Voter Registration Act of 1993 and the Help America Vote Act of 2002.
Requiring everyone to vote on one day would upend elections across the country. Forty-six states and D.C. allow early in-person voting, and 35 and D.C. permit voting by mail without an excuse, including eight that automatically send mail ballots to voters, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.
Biden Says Russians Are Trying To Meddle In 2020 Election
The president wouldnt say whether he will accept the results of Novembers election, citing possible fraud with mail-in ballots.
You dont know until you see. It depends, Trump said, adding that voting by mail as Democrats have suggested during the coronavirus would rig the election.
Pressed by Wallace, Trump refused to budge.
No, Im not going to just say yes. Im not going to say no, and I didnt last time either, Trump said.
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How My Unbeatable System Works
Regular readers know I spent nearly two decades on Wall Street, at prestigious firms like Cantor Fitzgerald, trading more than $1 billion worth of stock for major clients.
But I walked away from it all and used my experience to develop my own unbeatable stock-picking system. I spent half a dozen years and hundreds of thousands of dollars to make sure its highly accurate, comprehensive, and effective.
My system scans nearly 5,500 stocks every day, looking for the best of the best that big institutions are likely buying by the truckload. And I use 80 complex algorithms to score and rank each one of them for strength across 29 factors.
Its very powerful Since 1990, on average, its identified half of the top 5% of names in the S& P 500 each year including the No. 1 stock on the S& P 500 for the past six years in a row.
Now, you may be wondering what all this has to do with Trumps historic 2016 victory. And the answer is: It seems the smart money can identify more than just triple-digit gains