Understand The 2022 Midterm Elections
Why are these midterm races so important?This years races could tip the balance of power in Congress to Republicans, hobbling President Bidens agenda for the second half of his term. They will also test former President Donald J. Trumps role as a G.O.P. kingmaker. Heres what to know:
What are the midterm elections?Midterms take place two years after a presidential election, at the midpoint of a presidential term hence the name. This year, a lot of seats are up for grabs, including all 435 House seats, 35 of the 100 Senate seats and 36 of 50 governorships.
What do the midterms mean for Biden?With slim majorities in Congress, Democrats have struggled to pass Mr. Bidens agenda. Republican control of the House or Senate would make the presidents legislative goals a near-impossibility.
What are the races to watch?Only a handful of seats will determine if Democrats maintain control of the House over Republicans, and a single state could shift power in the 50-50 Senate. Here are 10 races to watch in the House and Senate, as well as several key governors contests.
When are the key races taking place?The primary gauntlet is already underway. Closely watched races in Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia were held in May, with more taking place through the summer. Primaries run until September before the general election on Nov. 8.
The generation after me is just a complete trash heap, Mr. Dean said.
Us Election Betting Odds Who Is Favourite To Win
- Joe Bidden is the odds-on favourite at 11/20, whereas Donald Trump is valued as the slight outsider at 6/4.
- The Democrats are highly likely to take control of the House of Representatives, valued at 1/8. A Republican hold is way out at 15/4.
- According to the bookies, Trump is most likely to secure between 43 46% of the popular vote, valued at 6/4
- Biden is well-fancied for a comfortable win of 330-359 Electoral College votes, coming in at 15/4 with Bet.co.za.
- What if its not Trump or Biden? An independent candidate is placed at 250/1 to win the US Election this week.
- The odds of Trump scraping enough Electoral College votes to win stands at 9/2.
- Could history repeat itself? Donald Trump is 11/5 to lose the popular vote but still be elected, as he was in 2016.
- Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are the three biggest swing-states Trump is 3/1 to take them all.
- Joe Biden is placed at evens to win the most states in total
- What about an Electoral College tie? Theres an outside shot of 50/1 for the vote to finish at 269-269, leaving both candidates short of the magic 270 mark.
Who Would Win A Fight Between Donald Trump And Joe Biden
Even for someone as famously uninhibited and unapologetically profane as Vice President Joe Biden, America’s coolest uncle has been one of Donald Trump’s harshest critics this election cycle. After Trump wondered aloud in his typically evil “just-asking-questions” way whether the election had already been “rigged” for Hillary Clinton, Biden’s earnest suggestion that Trump may be “too stupid” to know the damage he’s doing generated both delighted laughter from the crowd and also this brilliant chyron.
Last week, when the noted Parks and Recreation star was asked if he wished he had the chance to debate Trump, Biden, probably after taking a long drag of a cigarette and sneering, let loose with this:
No, I wish we were in high school, and I could take him behind thegym. That’s what I wish.
You’ll never believe this, but today Donald Trump fired back:
Did you see where Biden wants to take me to the back of the barn? I’dlove that! I’d love that! Mr. Tough Guy! You know he’s Mr. Tough Guy!You know when he’s Mr. Tough Guy? When he’s standing behind amicrophone by himself! He wants to bring me to the back of the barn!Oh, some things in life you could really love doing!
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Note that these two gentlemen were so excited to take each other on that they mixed up the agreed-upon venue! But no matter. Let’s break down who would take this hypothetical behind-the-gym-and/or-the-barn matchup.
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Electoral College Certificates And Votes By State
*Maine appoints its electors proportionally. Biden-Harris won in the First Congressional District and took the state Trump-Pence won the Second Congressional District. Maine’s electoral votes were proportionally awarded accordingly: for President, Biden 3 and Trump 1 for Vice President, Harris 3 and Pence 1.
**Nebraska appoints its electors proportionally. Trump-Pence won in the First and Third Congressional Districts and took the state Biden-Harris won the Second Congressional District. Nebraska’s electoral votes were proportionally awarded accordingly: for President, Trump 4 and Biden 1 for Vice President, Pence 4 and Harris 1.
…a Process, not a Place
The Office of the Federal Register is a part of the National Archives and Records Administration and, on behalf of the Archivist of the United States, coordinates certain functions of the Electoral College between the States and Congress. It has no role in appointing electors and has no contact with them.
Demographic Profiles Of Trump And Biden Voters
As was the case in the 2016 and 2018 elections, the Democratic voting coalition in 2020 looked quite different from the Republican coalition in several respects. Overall, Biden voters were younger, more racially and ethnically diverse, and less likely to live in rural areas than Trump voters.
In 2020, 85% of voters who cast a ballot for Trump were White non-Hispanic this compares with just 61% of Biden voters. These differences are roughly consistent with the share of White voters in each partys coalition in 2016.
Nearly two-in-ten voters who cast a ballot for Biden in the 2020 election were Black, identical to the share of Clinton voters in 2016 who were Black. That is significantly higher than the share of Trump voters who were Black .
The community profiles of Trump and Biden voters are similar in some fundamental ways to the previous two elections but more voters who cast ballots for Biden in 2020 say they live in a suburban area compared with Clintons 2016 voters.
Overall, urban voters continue to constitute a larger share of the Democratic coalition compared with the Republican coalition. And rural voters remain a significantly larger portion of the Republican electorate.
However, when comparing Clintons voters with Bidens, there are some significant shifts. In 2016, about half of Clintons voters described their communities as suburban , while 32% said they were from an urban area and 19% were from a rural area.
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About The Vanderbilt Poll
The survey of 1,000 adults who are registered voters living in Tennessee was conducted between April 26 and May 14, 2022, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. The statewide poll is conducted annually by Vanderbilt Universitys Center for the Study of Democratic Institutions. In 2015, the Vanderbilt Poll became a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Researchs Transparency Initiative. More detailed results and methodology can be found at vu.edu/poll.
Who Won The First Debate
Joe Biden was bookmaker Coral’s favourite to win the first US Presidential debate.
But it largely descended into an ugly war of words for 90 minutes, with the incumbent President repeatedly talking over his rival and going on the attack.
However Biden, despite being the more calm of the two, struggled to rise above the squabbling and many answers on vital questions were not heard.
It is thought undecided voters will not have been swayed by the debate on September 29, although commentators are suggesting Biden swung it slightly.
According to one expert ahead of the debate, it was key for Biden to have a specially strong showing to win it.
The BBC gave the night to Joe Biden as he achieved his “main goal was to prove to Americans that he could hold up under pressure”.
The first polls also gave Biden the win by 48 per cent to 41 per cent, according to CBS and YouGov tracking in battleground states.
But Donald Trump’s campaign team claimed victory and many viewers said they thought Trump “dominated” his rival.
Pundits said there was no clear winner as the interruptions and insults meant real debate got lost.
“What a dark event we have just witnessed,” MSNBC anchor Brian Williams said afterwards.
CNN anchor Jake Tapper said: “That was a hot mess, inside a dumpster fire, inside a train wreck.
CNN’s Dana Bash called it “a s*** show.”
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Here Are The Predictions Trump Got Right About Biden
Former President Donald Trumps predictions during his 2020 presidential campaign about what would happen to the U.S. if Joe Biden took office have been eerily correct.
Trump accurately warned voters that Bidens policies would attack free speech and the Second Amendment, cause illegal immigrants to flood the southern border, and consumers would suffer high gas prices and a failing economy.
If Biden and Trump were to hold a joint press conference, it might look something like this.
Bidens Attacks On The Second Amendment
Trump warned that Bidens administration would implement a radical left agenda, including attacks on the First and Second amendments.
Hes following the radical left agenda: take away your guns, destroy your Second Amendment, no religion no anything, hurt the Bible, hurt God, hes against God, hes against guns, hes against energy, our kind of energy, Trump said in August 2020.
If Joe Biden gets in, your Second Amendment is gone. Its gone either obliterated to a point of being gone or gone itself, Trump told supporters on Sep. 8, 2020, in Florida.
The Trump campaign also released an ad that warned Biden openly admitted his plan to violate our Second Amendment rights.
To gun owners out there who say, well, a Biden administration means theyre going to come for my guns. Bingo. Youre right, Biden said in a clip from CNN the Trump campaign used in the ad.
Bidens Open Border Policy:
During his 2020 campaign Trump said:
An Examination Of The 2020 Electorate Based On Validated Voters
Pew Research Center conducted this study to understand how Americans voted in 2020 and how their turnout and vote choices differed from 2016 and 2018. For this analysis, we surveyed U.S. adults online and verified their turnout in the three general elections using commercial voter files that aggregate official state turnout records. Panelists for whom a record of voting was located are considered validated voters all others are presumed not to have voted.
We surveyed 11,818 U.S. adults online in November 2020, 10,640 adults in November 2018 and 4,183 adults in November and December 2016. The surveys were supplemented with measures taken from annual recruitment and profile surveys conducted in 2018 and 2020. Everyone who took part is a member of Pew Research Centers American Trends Panel , an online survey panel recruited through national, random sampling of telephone numbers or, since 2018, residential addresses. This way nearly all U.S. adults have a chance of selection. The surveys are weighted to be representative of the U.S. adult population by gender, race, ethnicity, partisan affiliation, education, turnout and vote choice in the three elections, and many other characteristics. Read more about the ATPs methodology.
Validated voters, defined
Here are some of the other key findings from the analysis:
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Voting Patterns In The 2020 Election
The 2020 election featured continuity in the voting patterns of major demographic and political groups in the population, but there were a few important shifts. The gender gap in the 2020 election was narrower than it had been in 2016 as Democrats made gains among men and Republicans made gains among women. In the 2016 election, Donald Trump won men by 11 percentage points while Hillary Clinton won women by 15 points . In the 2018 election, Democrats substantially narrowed the gap with men while maintaining an 18-point lead among women. In the 2020 election, men again divided nearly evenly , while Bidens advantage narrowed to 11 points among women .
Similarly, as Biden increased his level of support among White men in the 2020 election relative to Clintons in 2016, Trump gained among White women, which had the effect of further narrowing the gender gap among White voters. In 2016, Trump won White men by 30 points . That gap narrowed to a 17-point margin for Trump in 2020 . White women, a group sometimes categorized as swing voters and who broke nearly evenly in 2016 , favored him in 2020 .
Biden received the support of 92% of Black voters, nearly the same as Clinton received in 2016 and Democratic candidates for the U.S. House received in 2018.
Party and ideology
Age and generation
White non-evangelical Protestants voted for Trump over Biden by a 14-point margin , while Black Protestants were an overwhelmingly Democratic group .
The Personal Is Political
If you were to go searching for the molten core of Joe Bidens politics, you could do worse than this passage from his book Promise Me, Dad:
My old friend Tip ONeill, the twentieth centurys most colorful and successful Speaker of the House, famously said, All politics is local. Ive been around long enough to presume to improve on that statement. I believe all politics is personal, because at bottom, politics depends on trust, and unless you can establish a personal relationship, its awfully hard to build trust.
This is the core of Bidenism. Its also the core problem of it. As his many critics have pointed out myself included the relational politics that defined the Senate decades ago have fallen before the structural polarization of modern American politics. Biden often seemed caged by his affection for the Senate of yore, musing proudly of the deals he cut with segregationist senators like Mississippis James Eastland. But that Senate, for better and for much, much worse, was a product of the mixed political parties of the past. Its gone now.
As Biden wrote, personal relationships build trust. And trust builds a foundation upon which negotiation and compromise the core work of politics, as Biden sees it is possible. And so the Biden-Sanders relationship birthed the Biden-Sanders task forces, which was, to my eyes, the most impressive and interesting decision of Bidens campaign.
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