Usa Today/ipsos Poll Also Found A Majority Of Democrats Are Ready To Move On From Joe Biden
Former President Donald Trump gestures to the audience after speaking at an America First Policy Institute agenda summit at the Marriott Marquis in Washington, on Tuesday, July 26, 2022.
Andrew Harnik, Associated Press
Thats the inverse of the outlook from the Democratic Party, where 56% of respondents said they are ready to move on from President Joe Biden and believe he shouldnt run again in 2024.
What else the poll found: In addition to an update on the 2024 presidential race, pollsters asked about the top issues facing the country and how Americans feel about various politicians. Heres what they found:
The top issues facing America: Poll respondents selected the three main problems facing the country today. Republicans and Democrats largely agreed that inflation is a major problem, but were split on gun violence nearly 40% of Democrats selected it as a main problem, compared to only 11% of Republicans. Heres the full list of top responses, with Democrats and Republicans combined:
An Examination Of The 2016 Electorate Based On Validated Voters
One of the biggest challenges facing those who seek to understand U.S. elections is establishing an accurate portrait of the American electorate and the choices made by different kinds of voters. Obtaining accurate data on how people voted is difficult for a number of reasons.
Surveys conducted before an election can overstate or understate the likelihood of some voters to vote. Depending on when a survey is conducted, voters might change their preferences before Election Day. Surveys conducted after an election can be affected by errors stemming from respondents recall, either for whom they voted for or whether they voted at all. Even the special surveys conducted by major news organizations on Election Day the exit polls face challenges from refusals to participate and from the fact that a sizable minority of voters actually vote prior to Election Day and must be interviewed using conventional surveys beforehand.
This report introduces a new approach for looking at the electorate in the 2016 general election: matching members of Pew Research Centers nationally representative American Trends Panel to voter files to create a dataset of verified voters.
About half of validated voters were married among them, Trump had a 55% to 39% majority. Among unmarried voters, Clinton led by a similar margin .
New Poll Asks Americans Whether Trump Should Face Charges Top Midterm Priorities
About half of Americans think former President Donald Trump should face criminal charges for his role in the deadly insurrection that took place at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, according to the latest PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll. But far fewer roughly a quarter think Trump will actually be prosecuted.
Since hearings by the House committee investigating the attack began in June, new evidence and testimony have revealed how much Trump and members of his administration knew about the potential for violence, as well as the former presidents embrace of his armed supporters and his unwillingness to intervene when chaos overwhelmed the Capitol.
While a majority of Americans overall blame Trump for what happened that day, public opinion remains divided down party lines, according to this last poll. Nearly all Democrats 92 percent and a majority of independents but only about one in five Republicans agree.
Chart by Megan McGrew/PBS NewsHour
The final scheduled Jan. 6 hearing is slated to start Thursday at 8 p.m. ET and is expected to offer a minute-by-minute account of what Trump did and didnt do as the Capitol was overrun. In September, the committee is scheduled to release a report of its findings.
Meanwhile, federal prosecutors responsible for charging suspects related to the attack have also been watching the hearings. Unlike Congress, We do not do our investigations in public, Attorney General Merrick Garland said at the Justice Department Wednesday.
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Closed Borders For Some
President Trump set out his stall on immigration just a week after his inauguration, closing US borders to travellers from seven Muslim-majority countries. Currently 13 nations are subject to tight travel restrictions.
The number of foreign-born people living in the US was about 3% higher in 2019 than in 2016, President Obama’s last year in office. But who those immigrants are has changed.
The percentage of US residents born in Mexico has fallen steadily during Mr Trump’s term, while the number who moved from elsewhere in Latin America and the Caribbean has increased. There has also been a general tightening of the number of visas enabling people to settle permanently in the US – particularly for relatives of those already living there.
If there’s an emblem of President Trump’s immigration policy, it’s surely the “big, beautiful wall” he swore to build on the border with Mexico. As of 19 October, US Customs and Border Protection says 371 miles of wall have been constructed – almost all of it replacement fencing where barriers already existed.
The work did not deter those desperate to reach America.
The number of migrants detained at the US-Mexico border hit its highest level for 12 years in 2019, spurred by a peak in arrivals during the spring. More than half were families, mostly from Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador, where violence and poverty are driving people to seek asylum and a new life elsewhere.
Vote By Party And Ideology
Voter choice and party affiliation were nearly synonymous. Republican validated voters reported choosing Trump by a margin of 92% to 4%, while Democrats supported Clinton by 94% to 5%. The roughly one-third of the electorate who identified as independent or with another party divided their votes about evenly .
Similarly, voting was strongly correlated with ideological consistency, based on a scale composed of 10 political values including opinions on race, homosexuality, the environment, foreign policy and the social safety net. Respondents are placed into five categories ranging from consistently conservative to consistently liberal.
Virtually all validated voters with consistently liberal values voted for Clinton over Trump , while nearly all those with consistently conservative values went for Trump . Those who held conservative views on most political values favored Trump by 87% to 7%, while Clinton received the support of somewhat fewer among those who were mostly liberal . Among the nearly one-third of voters whose ideological profile was mixed, the vote was divided .
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How The Fbis Activity Is Being Framed
The FBIs activity on Monday in Palm Beach acting on a warrant reportedly related to a probe involving Trumps handling of top secret documents provided a dramatic picture of the unprecedented examination of a former president by federal, state and local investigators on the civil and criminal front.
Three in 4 voters said they had seen, read or heard at least something about the FBIs raid by the time of the survey, with little variation by political affiliation. In turn, most voters aligned with reporting that the search was related to mishandling of classified information, compared with 32% who thought it was related to Jan. 6 and 14% who said it was something else.
In a statement, Trump called the FBIs search an act of political persecution and a Witch Hunt designed to harm the political movement he leads. While much of the Republican electorate buys that charge, the message does not appear to have legs with the broader public.
America’s ‘endless Wars’ And A Middle East Deal
In his February 2019 State of the Union address, President Trump pledged to withdraw US troops from Syria, declaring: “Great nations do not fight endless wars.”
The numbers paint a more nuanced story. Not least because months down the line, Mr Trump decided to keep about 500 troops in Syria after all to protect oil wells. The president has scaled back the presence he inherited in Afghanistan, and to an extent in Iraq and Syria. But American forces are still everywhere they were the day he took office.
There are ways to impact on the Middle East without troops, of course. President Trump overturned the objections of previous presidents by moving the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem in 2018, and recognising the city, including its occupied East, as Israel’s capital. Last month he hailed the “dawn of a new Middle East” when the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain signed agreements normalising relations with Israel – a move the US helped broker.
Rhetoric aside, this was perhaps the most significant diplomatic achievement of the Trump administration. The two Gulf states are just the third and fourth Arab nations in the Middle East to recognise Israel since it declared independence in 1948.
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Trumps Survival After Scandals
More than a year and a half since Trump left office, 58 percent of Americans hold an unfavorable view of him, according to this latest poll. That includes 89 percent of Democrats and 63 percent of independents. But 83 percent of Republicans say they still favor Trump, along with roughly a third of all Americans.
Trumps favorability among the GOP outpaces that of a handful of other Republicans who are considered potential rivals for a White House bid in 2024:
According to GOP strategist and conservative pollster Whit Ayres, most Republicans are also open to having a new candidate who carries less baggage than they believe Trump carries as their nominee in 2024.
It all depends on who the alternatives are, Ayres said. Most alternatives arent nationally known here.
Trumps political resilience is unlike anything else in U.S. presidential history, said Jeffrey Engel, who directs the Center for Presidential History at Southern Methodist University in Dallas.
As with everything with Donald Trump, history gives us no guide, Engel said.
One comparison is tough to ignore, though todays political dynamics are nearly opposite. In 1974, after an investigation uncovered that President Richard Nixons reelection campaign had bugged the phones at the Democratic National Committee headquarters, Nixon resigned in disgrace before he could be impeached. He retreated from public life and partially rebuilt his reputation in foreign policy during the decades that followed, Engel said.
Sitting President Joe Biden Is Not On The Minds Of Democratic Voters Who Are Looking For A New Leader In The Next Presidential Election According To A New Poll Released Wednesday
Voters are not interested in a second-term presidency for Joe Biden, according to a new poll released Wednesday.
Maury Blackman, CEO of the data company Premise, announced the results of the Premise Poll in an episode of his podcast, Great Minds Think Data.
Poll numbers show voters are interested in a run from current Vice President Kamala Harris and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. California Governor Gavin Newsom and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg are tied for third place.
Biden’s presidency has not inspired Democrats to elect him to a second term, the numbers show. By a margin of 23 points, 61% of those polled said they would prefer a new president 38% said they’d welcome another four years of Biden.
Still, the poll numbers were not high for possible replacement candidates. Harris polled at 21%, with possible candidacy getting the most votes. However, Harris may not be free to run. In a Q& A with the press, Biden said in January, “She is going to be my running mate …. I think she’s doing a good job.”
Harris is the first woman vice president, as well as the first Black or Asian American vice president, which her supporters have argued means she is under unique pressure as a barrier-breaker. Her polling, however, has not been strong.
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Ping Back On Climate Change
It’s hard to pin down what President Trump believes about climate change, as he’s called it everything from “an expensive hoax”, to a “serious subject” that is “very important to me”. What is clear is that six months into the job, he dismayed scientists by announcing America’s withdrawal from the Paris climate accord, which committed nearly 200 countries to keeping global temperature rises well under 2C.
The US is the second-biggest emitter of greenhouse gases behind China, and researchers have warned that if Mr Trump is re-elected, it may become impossible to keep global warming in check.
Rejecting the Paris agreement, the president claimed it “would have been shutting down American producers with excessive regulatory restrictions”. This has been a theme for Mr Trump, who has removed a raft of pollution regulations to cut the cost of producing coal, oil and gas.
Column: Cheneys Wyoming Defeat Is A Win For Trump And A Decisive Blow To Fading Gop Establishment
Cheneys congressional primary loss also undermines the truth and those who care about protecting democracy.
Just 3 in 10 California voters in the poll said they supported another Biden candidacy, while 61% were opposed nearly identical to the share of the vote he won in the state in 2020. Among poll respondents who voted for him two years ago, nearly half said they opposed him running again. And among voters with favorable views of Bidens current job performance, nearly 30% said they would not like to see him run in 2024.
Nor is there a loud clamor in California for Harris, 57, the states former U.S. senator, to assume the Democratic Partys mantle. The vice presidents approval ratings have flagged, even in her home state.
Her allies see an opportunity for Harris to break from the polling doldrums by leading the administrations efforts to preserve abortion rights. Still, voters eligible to participate in the Democratic presidential primary in California those registered as Democrats or with no party preference ranked her third in a list of potential candidates for the Democratic nomination if Biden is not on the ballot in two years 1 in 10 had Harris as their top pick.
Youd think the sitting vice president would be a natural alternative , especially one from our own state, DiCamillo said. Thats not coming through in this poll.
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Poll: Fewer Than Half Of Republican Primary Voters Would Support Trump In 2024
Just over half of Republicans likely to vote in their party’s 2024 presidential primary say that they would prefer someone other than former President Donald Trump as the party’s presidential candidate, a poll released on Tuesday by The New York Times and Siena College found.
After identifying Republicans likely to vote in the primary, the survey gave respondents a choice between Trump and five other potential GOP nominees. Only 49% of respondents chose Trump, despite the fact that the former president carried 94% of all Republican votes in the 2020 election, which he lost to current President Joe Biden.
Trump’s closest challenger was Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who was chosen by 25% of respondents. Other potential candidates included Texas Senator Ted Cruz Trump’s one-time running mate, former Vice President Mike Pence former South Carolina governor and Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo .
Is Trump vulnerable?
The biggest question raised by the poll is whether it indicates that Trump might be vulnerable to a challenge in the Republican primary elections in 2024. Experts said that the results should be read with caution.
While Trump’s lack of a clear majority in the poll may raise some eyebrows, “He’s still pretty far ahead,” Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, told VOA.
Comparison to Biden
Trumps 2024 Standing After The Fbi Raid
- In the Aug. 10 survey, 58% of Republican voters said they would support Trump if the 2024 Republican presidential primary were today, the highest on record since his 2020 loss. The share of support is up from 54% in July and 53% in June amid the high-profile congressional Jan. 6 hearings.
- Trumps improvement has come to the detriment of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, whose 2024 support has slumped 5 percentage points since late July, to 16%.
- Similarly, a record-high 71% of GOP voters say that Trump should run for president in 2024.
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The Rise Of ‘fake News’
“I think one of the greatest of all terms I’ve come up with is ‘fake’,”Donald Trump said in an October 2017 interview. Although the president definitely didn’t invent the term “fake news”, it’s fair to say he popularised it. According to social media posts and audio transcripts monitored by Factba.se, he has used the phrase about 2,000 times since first tweeting it in December 2016.
Reports by @CNN that I will be working on The Apprentice during my Presidency, even part time, are ridiculous & untrue – FAKE NEWS!
â Donald J. Trump
Search Google for “fake news” today and you’ll get more than 1.1 billion results from all over the world. Charted over time, you can see how US interest rose in the winter of 2016-17, and spiked the week the president unveiled what he called the “Fake News Awards”, a list of news stories he viewed as false.
During the 2016 White House race, “fake news” meant untrue reports like one about Pope Francis endorsing Mr Trump for the presidency. But as it seeped into popular usage, that meaning shifted away from being just about misinformation.
The president has frequently used “fake news” to attack news stories he disagrees with. In February 2017, he took it further, branding several news outlets “the enemy of the American people”.
The FAKE NEWS media is not my enemy, it is the enemy of the American People!
â Donald J. Trump