Who Could Beat Donald Trump In 2024
Analysis by Chris Cillizza, CNN Editor-at-large
Politico asked Mick Mulvaney, who served as chief of staff to then-President Donald Trump, who he believed had a chance to beat his former boss for the Republican nomination in 2024.
” DeSantis could give him a run for his money. Tim Scott can give him a run for his money. Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson could give him a run for his money. It’s a short list.”1) Ron DeSantiseven if 2) Tim Scott3) Dwayne “The Rock” JohnsonThe Point: Is it possible that Trump gets a serious primary challenge in 2024? Sure. Is it likely? Not at all.
Cory Booker Kirsten Gillibrand Amy Klobuchar Kamala Harris
Being the establishment candidate in the current political climate is the kiss of death. Which is why even candidates who fit that mold will do everything they can to avoid the label including co-sponsoring Mr. Sanderss Medicare for All.
Mr. Booker, a New Jersey senator, has seemingly been running for president since he was a Rhodes scholar at Oxford in the 90s. But some of the well-heeled backers he picked up along the way including Big Pharma and Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump are now political poison in a Democratic primary. He may end up spending as much time distancing himself from his old supporters as cultivating new ones.
Ms. Gillibrand, a New York senator, is similarly well liked on Wall Street. Shes recast herself as a tough-talking liberal in recent years introducing legislation that would institute paid family leave but her obligations to the financial services sector will hamper her.
Kamala Harris, a freshman California senator, has become a liberal rock star with her tough questioning of Jeff Sessions and other Trump administration officials during Senate hearings. Its her record as California attorney general, her previous job, that could trip her up: She , the bank once headed by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, for alleged foreclosure violations. Still, Ms. Harris seems the most promising of this group not least because she has less of a voting record her opponents can use against her.
Deploy The Obamas And Other Vips
Latinos constitute more than 20% of the citizen-voting age population in Arizona and Texas and about 20% in Florida. Biden has room to increase his appeal with this group, especially in Arizona and Florida, where significant majorities of Latinos disapprove of how Trump has handled the coronavirus and favor Biden on a range of character questions.
The Biden campaign and its allies must create an ongoing dialogue with voters of color. They should also immediately begin deploying the full network of surrogates popular with these communities, from the Obamas on down.
4) Guard against Republican voter suppression efforts. The latest Washington Post poll shows Trump trailing Biden by 13 points among everyone and trailing by 10 points among registered voters but trailing by just 5 points among likely voters. Trump and his party know that the key to Bidens success is a massive get-out-the-vote effort so they will do everything they can to suppress the vote.
Republicans saytheyre recruiting up to 50,000 volunteers” in 15 key states to monitor polling places and challenge ballots and voters they deem suspicious. This campaign of voter intimidation and harassment is part of a $20 million effort. It includes millions allocated to challenging lawsuits brought by Democrats and voting-rights advocates seeking to loosen state restrictions on balloting.
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There Has Never Been A Period As Chaotic As This One The Pressure On Our Political System Is Enormous But We Can End This Trumpian Nightmare
Even before the coronavirus and the killing of George Floyd, we knew this was going to be a volatile election year because of President Donald Trump. Still, six months ago, nobody would have predicted todays frenzied environment. A days events can dramatically change things. And who knows how many times the deck will be reshuffled before Nov. 3.
That makes it more important than ever that Trump opponents keep their eye on the ball. Here are six things progressives like me should be doing, regardless of anything else that may happen between now and Election Day, to defeat Trump and put Joe Biden in the White House:
1) Give Biden your wholehearted, full-throated support. There are only two candidates who can win the presidency Biden and Trump. I saw a recent Facebook post that said something like, Never Biden = Vote for Trump Voting Green = Vote for Trump Writing in Bernie = Vote for Trump Staying Home = Vote for Trump. There is no time or room for protest votes.
And just voting for Biden isnt enough. Every one of us has a moral responsibility to defeat Trump. To do this, we must support Biden enthusiastically. Tell everyone you know sing it from the rooftops. The contrast with Trump couldnt be starker.
The time for bellyaching is over. The Democratic Party had a robust primary with 28 candidates vying for the nomination. Biden has clinched it, and it’s every progressives job to do everything possible to help him win. Period.
In Contrast They Think Bernie Sanders Would Boost The Presidents Chance Of Re
NOTHING IS MORE important to Americas Democrats than kicking Donald Trump out of the White House. In a poll published on February 25th, 65% of Democratic voters told YouGov that nominating a candidate who can beat the president in November is more important than selecting one who shares their positions on most issues. Yet there is much confusion over who is best able to evict Mr Trump.
Political polls offer one answer. Most show the various candidates beating Mr Trump by wide enough margins nationally that they would be favoured to win an electoral-college majority. But the election is a long way away, and these polls may not be good at identifying who will actually vote, making them unreliable as measures of candidates strength.
If Bernie Sanders wins the nomination, Mr Trump is likely to be re-elected, with a probability of 58%. But if the president is up against Joe Biden or Mike Bloomberg, he is likely to lose the probability of his victory drops to 46% and 49% respectively.
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Liberals Shouldnt Be So Worried About Biden
A fear among liberal skeptics of Biden is that his pragmatism represents a retreat from the partys leftward momentum. Thats true in one sense. He doesnt pass progressive purity tests on issues like Medicare-for-all. On paper, his plans are less ambitious.
But hed still be the most progressive Democratic nominee in history if he won.
His plans line up closer with the center of gravity in the party, but in recent years the center has moved much further left than even during the Barack Obama years. For example, Biden isnt willing to replace the Affordable Care Act with a new, single-payer system like Warren or Sanderss Medicare-for-all. But he does want to improve on it with a major new addition, an expansive public option. Hed also cap premiums at 8.5 percent of a patients income.
These might seem small relative to the scope of Medicare-for-all, but Medicare-for-all has pretty much no chance of becoming law, and its likely to spark a damaging intraparty fight among congressional Democrats that harms the chances of passing any health care bill.
Lamb pointed out that there probably arent enough votes in the Democratic-controlled House to pass it, never mind a Republican-controlled Senate . And the key Senate Democrats who will drive health care policy if Democrats retake the gavel have already said Medicare-for-all is a nonstarter.
Woodfin agreed, echoing Lambs point that most Americans dont favor Medicare-for-all even among Democrats, the enthusiasm has .
Bernie Sanders Joe Biden
A literature of alternative histories has sprung up about Democratic candidates other than Hillary Clinton who would have won in 2016. The two most popular titles in this genre? Bernie Would Have Won and Biden Would Have Won. Are they viable for 2020?
A recent poll put Bernie Sanderss approval rating at 75 percent, which makes him the most popular politician in America. Hes the standard-bearer for the populist left whose Medicare for All bill, while still a liberal pipe dream, now seems as much of a litmus test for ambitious national Democrats as abortion rights. He will also be 79 years old on Election Day 2020.
Joe Biden, a son of Scranton, Pa., appeals to the same working-class white voters who flocked to Mr. Trump in 2016. Some progressives no doubt look upon him fondly from his days as Barack Obamas vice president. But Mr. Bidens three-decades-long centrist Senate record, from his handling of Clarence Thomass confirmation hearing in 1991 to his vote for the 2005 bankruptcy bill, might make him a tough sell to todays Democratic primary voters, not to mention the fact that he still has those centrist tendencies . And hell turn 78 in November 2020.
Would Mr. Sanders or Mr. Biden have won in 2016? Well never know but its unlikely either will in 2020.
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Top 5 Democrats With The Best Chance To Beat Trump
Well rank each Democrat based on their current odds, display whether their chances have been going up or down since January 1, 2019, and provide some insight into the top 5 most likely Trump challengers. Some candidates didnt have odds to start the year or currently dont have odds at all and well indicate when thats the case.
1. Joe Biden
- Then: +1400
- % Change: +13.33%
- The former Vice President saw his odds skyrocket after he officially made his announcement in late April. Biden is now not only the Democratic favorite but public money has also made him the biggest riser on the board since 2019 began. His national recognition and huge favorability Rust Belt where Trump won big in 2016 makes Biden the biggest threat to Trumps re-election bid.
2. Bernie Sanders
- Then: +1400
- % Change: +5.83%
- Sen. Bernie Sanders comes second and is not far behind Biden. The Vermont US senator gained national attention in 2016 for his Democratic Socialism platform and became Hillary Clintons biggest challenger for the partys nomination. This time, the public knows who Bernie is, which is why hes received more first-quarter donations than any other Democratic candidate.
3. Kamala Harris
4. Pete Buttigieg
5. Elizabeth Warren
Sanders Warren And Booker Also Beat Trump In Hypothetical 2020 Matchups
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Former Vice President Joe Biden would beat President Donald Trump in a hypothetical 2020 presidential race, a new poll from the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling says.
Mr Biden who was active on the 2016 campaign trail supporting former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton would blow Mr Trump out of the water, beating him by 14 points in a hypothetical head-to-head race, the poll shows.
Hes not the only one, either. Senator Bernie Sanders, who ran a strong campaign against Ms Clinton for the Democratic nomination, would be the President by 13 points. Senators Elizabeth Warren, Al Franken, and Cory Booker would also beat Mr Trump in hypothetical matchups, according to the poll.
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Elizabeth Warren Sherrod Brown Jeff Merkley
As a democratic socialist, Senator Sanders has no real allegiance to the Democratic Party it often seems his populist movement would just as soon burn the party down. But there are other populists who are less antagonistic to the Democratic Party not to mention who actually belong to it.
If she runs, Elizabeth Warren, a Massachusetts senator, would instantaneously be the Democrats putative front-runner. Her anti-corporate agenda has made her a fund-raising powerhouse, and she seems to have found an ideological sweet spot between the centrist Clinton and populist Sanders factions. Additionally, thanks to the Nevertheless she persisted meme, shes become a feminist heroine.
But Ms. Warren, wholl be 71 in 2020, is an ambivalent politician a longtime law professor, she didnt run for office until 2012 and its not clear that she has the proverbial fire in the belly for a presidential bid.
Sherrod Brown, an Ohio senator, hails from a crucial swing state and has strong labor backing. Hes never seemed interested in a presidential run until now. A finalist in the 2016 Democratic veepstakes, he would be formidable in Rust Belt states. His politics match the mood, and while he might not have the raw talent of Senator Warren, hed be a strong Plan B.
Who Won The Presidential Debates
Donald Trump and Joe Biden went head-to-head in two live TV debates.
The first, on 29 September, was a chaotic affair, with Mr Trump’s combative approach stamping out any chance of a real debate.
A CBS News/YouGov poll taken straight afterwards suggested it was a good night for Mr Biden.
Of those who watched, 48% said Mr Biden was the winner while 41% went for Mr Trump – a similar split to national polling averages. Nearly 70% of people said the debate made them feel “annoyed”.
In the second debate, on 22 October, organisers introduced a mute button to help police the arguments.
But it was a much more restrained President Trump on show and there was a much greater focus on the policies of the two candidates.
While that seemed to help Mr Trump somewhat, snap polls still suggested viewers thought Mr Biden’s performance was more impressive.
A CNN poll found 53% of viewers thought the Democrat had done a better job in the debate, while 39% went with Mr Trump.
AYouGov snap poll was similar, with 54% saying Mr Biden had won compared to 35% for the president.
So while Mr Trump put in a better performance, it’s unlikely to have been enough to change the balance of the race on its own.
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Biden Leading National Presidential Polls
National polls are a good guide as to how popular a candidate is across the country as a whole, but they’re not necessarily a good way to predict the result of the election.
In 2016, for example, Hillary Clinton led in the polls and won nearly three million more votes than Donald Trump, but she still lost – that’s because the US uses an electoral college system, so winning the most votes doesn’t always win you the election.
With that caveat aside, Joe Biden has been ahead of Donald Trump in most national polls since the start of the year. He has hovered around 50% in recent months and has had a 10-point lead on occasions.
Opinioni’ve Been Talking About Beto O’rourke Since 2017 He’s A 2020 Democratic Frontrunner For A Reason
Furthermore, there are two key demographics that swung for Trump in the 2016 election that Democrats need to win back in 2020: Independent voters and most importantly, suburban female voters. In the 2016 election, over 47 percent of Trumps voters were women a statistic that still shocks many pundits and analysts to this day. But due to the rhetoric and blunders of the White House, nearly 30 percent of those women now have a very poor impression of Trump according to a recent Pew Research Poll.
Worse than just their sentiments toward Trump, though, suburban women who catapulted him into the White House swung blue in the midterm elections. A USA Today analysis of the 2018 midterm election found more than 80 suburban counties and cities with high incomes and large number of college-educated voters voted more Democratic than in 2016. These gains were huge for Democrats, but this demographic could change again in 2020 if Republicans were to get smart about their candidates, rhetoric, and strategy, which no one expects.
These suburban and college-educated women who are increasingly aligning themselves with the Democratic party also describe themselves as mostly moderates looking for a government that compromises.
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Opinionjulin Castro May Not Beat Trump In 2020 But He Is The Face Of Future Presidential Politics
He added: From where I come from, I dont know how you get anything done. I dont know how you get anything done unless you start talking to one another again.
The eventual Democratic nominee would also have to appeal to young voters, who have been the most disaffected by Trumps presidency and Biden polls best among voters under the age of 35 with a 60 percent favorability. It also doesnt hurt that upon Bidens return to the social platform Instagram late last summer, he drew over one million followers and we all know social media is key to reaching young people in todays campaign atmosphere.
Whichever Democrat candidate becomes the nominee will also need to have a name recognition that matches that of Trump, and Biden can handily compete with that as the former vice president of the United States and a long time senator.
John Hickenlooper Steve Bullock
Some Democrats will be tempted to look beyond the Beltway for a savior. Thus the appeal of a certain type of pragmatic governor.
John Hickenlooper, in his second term as Colorado governor, has built a solid economic record there while also instituting tough gun control laws and overseeing the smooth introduction of legalized marijuana. Hes also evinced a willingness for bipartisanship that has served him well in purple Colorado. Hes an offbeat enough character that its possible to see him catching fire.
Steve Bullock is a second-term governor in deep-red Montana, and hed cast himself as someone whod help Democrats broaden their electoral map beyond the coasts. Its not a bad sales pitch. But Mr. Bullock isnt much of a salesman. One joke making the rounds about him goes that if you close your eyes while hes speaking, you hear Evan Bayh.
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