Thursday, May 23, 2024

Latest Posts

What Are Trump’s Chances Of Winning In 2020

Aoc’s Odds Of Winning The 2024 Us Presidential Election

John Salley on Donald Trump’s Chances of Winning 2020 Election (Part 22)

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has emerged as one of the brightest young stars of the Democratic Party but has seen her odds fall from +3,300 in the New Year to +5,000 in March, and she has now plummeted all the way to +6,500 . AOC currently serves as a U.S. House of Representatives member, representing New York’s 14th district.

The politically savvy 32-year-old has built a massive online following and will be turning the requisite age of presidential eligibility just before the 2024 election.

Her biggest obstacle may in fact be her own party, with her more progressive views likely to alienate some of her colleagues unless they soften over time.

She recently hit the news for criticizing the Biden administration for not doing more to help student debt. Meanwhile, Nancy Pelosi’s new book “This Will Not Pass” accuses Ocasio-Cortez and other progressives of vying to be “queen bee.” AOC could run the risk of being another Bernie Sanders if she can’t convince the moderates that she’s willing to make concessions on key issues.

Forecasting Trumps Electoral College Showing

There are still 10 months to go until the first ballots will be cast in the 2020 presidential caucuses and primaries. The identity of the Democratic nominee, in all likelihood, will not be known for more than a year. Nevertheless, it is not too early to begin speculating about Donald Trumps chances of winning a second term in the White House. That is because when an incumbent is running for reelection, the presidential election is largely a referendum on that incumbents performance. The challengers characteristics and the general election campaign itself matter only at the margins.

In this article, I present the results of a modified version of the time for change forecasting model that I have used to correctly predict the winner of the national popular vote in every presidential election between 1992 and 2012. And while the model failed to predict Hillary Clintons narrow popular vote victory in 2016, I noted at the time that Trump might well fall short of his predicted vote given his extraordinary weaknesses as a candidate. As it was, the model predicted Trump to win the national two-party popular vote by three points, but Clinton won it by two points.

How Trump And Biden Supporters Would React To Victory And Defeat

When asked about their reactions to the outcome of the November 2020 election, voters say they would have more positive reactions to Biden winning the election than to Trump being reelected president. And voters reactions to Trumps possible reelection are more intense both positively and negatively than to a Biden victory.

About half of registered voters say they would be excited or relieved if Biden was elected president, while 47% say they would be disappointed or angry.

Among voters who say they would react positively to a Biden victory, far more would be relieved than excited . Among those who expect to react negatively, more say they would be disappointed than angry .

More voters say they would react to a Trump victory with negative than positive emotions. Nearly twice as many voters say they would be angry if Trump wins reelection than if Biden is elected president .

Yet somewhat more voters also say they would be excited by a Trump victory than a Biden victory.

Although both Trump and Biden supporters express positive reactions to their own candidate winning the November election, Trump supporters are about twice as likely to say to say they would be excited if their candidate won the 2020 election than Biden supporters are of their own candidate.

Don’t Miss: Can Bernie Sanders Beat Trump

Predictit The Political Stock Market

Wall Street will keep its watchful eye on the election and react accordingly. That, of course, is separate from the stock market of politics,

PredictIt is a stock market for politics, where you can buy or sell shares in the expected outcomes of political events, head of public engagement Will Jennings told USA TODAY Sports, that has seen 1.5 billion “shares” traded since its launch in November 2014.

PredictIt provides a market for hundreds of political outcomes foreign policy, administration policy, international elections, Senate and House races .

Heres how it works: speculators can buy and sell shares between 1 cent and 99 cents for each candidate. On Monday, Biden traded between 63-65 cents, while Trump upped slightly from 41 to 42 cents. That means the market is setting a 63-65% probability he will win much lower than the 538 forecast. If, for example, Biden were to win and someone had five shares of him bought at 64 cents apiece, those five shares would turn into $5.

Additionally, each state has a price attached. The more of a swing state it is, the closer to 50 cents it will trade at, with North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Pennsylvania all trading between 50-60 cents. People can wager on the results of a specific state and profit in that manner.

Jennings said the PredictIt markets started foreshadowing a Trump victory about an hour before the narrative on cable news election coverage shifted four years .

Trump Vs Biden Presidential Odds For 2024

Will Trump Win Reelection? His 2020 Odds Are Pretty High

Trump polls favorably against Joe Biden in a 2024 matchup. Part of that polling comes from the economic challenges of a post-pandemic economy paired with gas shortages caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Biden rallied as inflation slowed, gas prices fell, and he secured major policy victories.

However, Trump news-jacks better than perhaps anyone else, and certainly better than any other candidate with odds to win the 2024 Presidential Election. Shocking tweets and statements created media firestorms where reporters would chase his controversy. That took time away from grilling congressional Republicans about bills they were moving through Congress. While Trumps outbursts could be embarrassing for Republicans, they werent without strategic advantages.

In another presidential campaign, Trump will refocus the news back onto him. Another campaign of shameless lies will generate media coverage that his base eats up, and undecided voters misinterpret as strength.

Don’t Miss: What Is Trump Doing About Immigration

Will Trump Run After Search By Fbi

On August 8, 2022, the FBI conducted a controversial raid on Trumps Mar-a-Lago property in Florida. This, naturally, has been criticized by the GOP as being politically motivated and baseless, while the Democrats have seized on the events in an effort to prevent a possible Trump 2024 campaign. Whether the FBI found any evidence of any crimes and whats going to happen if they did remains to be seen.

However, as the aftermath of the Trump FBI raid plays out, you can expect election betting sites to have odds on various outcomes thereof. In the immediate aftermath, these events have boosted FL. Gov. Ron DeSantis GOP nomination chances for 2024, but only by a few points. Trump is still the favorite to get the nomination at most sites, though DeSantis is favored overall to win the presidency at this time. But theres still a long time to go.

Donald Trump Wins In 2024

Trump is the bookies favorite, the bettors favorite and leads Biden in the polls right now. He has the support of his growing base, plenty of financial muscle to mount a successful presidential campaign, and is feeding off the polarization in American society. If anyone thought populist politics was dead, theyre wrong. Granted, Trumps odds probably will inflate once the Democrats have figured out who theyre backing, but right now he projects as the favorite whoever he takes on.

Also Check: How To Tweet To Trump

Presidential Election Betting Faq

Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis are co-favorites, listed at 10-to-3 odds to win the 2024 Presidential Election, while Joe Biden is at 11-to-2 odds to win re-election in 2024.

Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump are currently co-favorites to win the 2024 election with a 23.1% chance to win. Current President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris are in a battle for third and fourth place.

Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis are expected to run for the Republicans. Joe Biden should run for the Democrats, but the likes of Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg and Gavin Newsom also could run.

Joe Biden may run for president in 2024 for the Democrats. But if he doesnt seek a second term, Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom and Pete Buttigieg could succeed him. Hillary Clinton and Michelle Obama have also been suggested.

The two big candidates to run for president from the Republican side are Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis. Trump has been the favorite most of the time siunce odds came out, but they are tied now.

The 2024 election will take place on Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024.

The 2024 US presidential election takes place on Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024. Americans can either vote on the day, vote in advance or request mail-in ballots.

Joe Biden is 79 years old. He was born Nov. 20, 1942. He will be 82 two weeks after the next election.

No. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will be 34 at the time of the next election, and you must be 35 to be President of the United States.

What The Current Lines Tell Us About The Chance Of Trump Winning In 2024

What are the odds of Trump winning re-election?

The odds suggest that Trump will win in 2024 if he runs, but they still offer compelling payouts for bettors who want to take a chance. Still, with the Vegas Trump odds provided, it isnt so easy for the former POTUS to be considered a sure thing, as FL Gov. Ron DeSantis is trending right alongside him and is the obvious GOP heir apparent in the near future.

Recommended Reading: How Do You Send A Message To President Trump

What Are The Chances Well Know The Next President On Election Night

In addition, theres something to be said for the idea that its worthwhile to lock in a vote. If someone has already voted, theyre 100 percent likely to vote . What about someone who says theyre planning to vote on Election Day but hasnt done so yet? Theyre certainly not 100 percent likely to vote. Something could come up on Election Day they get stuck late at work, they blow out a tire, they feel sick, they dont bother because they think their candidate is losing. Indeed, even some of the people that pollsters deem to be the most likely voters dont wind up voting. If 2 percent of mail voters have their votes rejected, but 5 percent of likely Election Day voters dont wind up voting, then polls could underestimate Democrats.

Wait, wasnt this supposed to be a post about how Trump could beat his polls? Well, the point is just that mail voting creates additional uncertainty this year, and its easy to imagine how that could help out Trump or Biden.

Another potential source of anxiety for pollsters is the Hispanic vote. Polls show Trump having made significant gains relative to 2016 with Hispanic voters and to a lesser extent with Black voters, especially Black men. This is not enough to offset gains that Biden has made with white voters, however, including white voters both with and without a college degree.

Dont Miss: When Is President Trumps Next Rally

Who Will Run For President In 2024

Were still more than two years out from the 2024 US election but campaigning will get underway soon. On the Democratic side, incumbent Joe Biden is expected to seek a second term, while VP Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg and Gavin Newsom all could compete to be the Dems’ pick.

Meanwhile, the Republican party looks set to choose either Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis. The big decision for party members centers around Trumps electability nationwide. He lost the last election by seven million votes. Can he overcome this deficit in 2024?

You May Like: What Did Trump Say About Romney

Biden Leading National Presidential Polls

National polls are a good guide as to how popular a candidate is across the country as a whole, but they’re not necessarily a good way to predict the result of the election.

In 2016, for example, Hillary Clinton led in the polls and won nearly three million more votes than Donald Trump, but she still lost – that’s because the US uses an electoral college system, so winning the most votes doesn’t always win you the election.

With that caveat aside, Joe Biden has been ahead of Donald Trump in most national polls since the start of the year. He has hovered around 50% in recent months and has had a 10-point lead on occasions.

Trump Has Strong Supporters But It’s Too Early To Know How Things Will Play Out

Trump has 91% chance of winning second term

Carr says Trump actually stands a good chance of becoming the second president since Grover Cleveland to be voted out of office, then return to serve a second non-consecutive term. She confirms that yes, this is largely due to the fact that “Trump will continue to stoke the emotions and energy of his loyal voter base through claims of election fraud,” saying that “By his continued accusations of the election being ‘stolen’ from him, this prevents psychological closure of the election for both himself and those who voted for him.” Both the discomfort that comes from this lack of closure, along with Trump’s promoting the idea of a great injustice being done to him will, according to Carr, “intensify his voters’ loyalty.”

She does note, however, that another four years of Trump is not a done deal, since “if President-elect Biden can provide significant economic recovery to America especially to families of auto industry workers and other blue collar occupations as well as provide meaningful and immediate tax cuts for small businesses,'” then there’s actually a good chance that he could “greatly decrease Trump’s chances of being reelected.” Remember, a lot can happen in four years, no matter who’s in charge. Let’s just try to stay calm, stay positive, and hope that these inevitable changes will be for the better.

Also Check: Who Is Winning Trump Or Biden

Donald Trump 2024 Odds Faqs

The 2024 Presidential Election is on November 5, 2024. Although early voting will begin in many states across the US weeks beforehand, none will be counted until November 5.

No. However, his presidential campaign announcement is expected. Federal investigations may incentivise him to run for president to avoid prosecution resulting from those investigations. After a presidential term, it also seems hard to believe that Trump would pass at the chance to become president again. As the January 6 hearings have demonstrated, Trump does not react well to coming in second place.

Yes. Trump ran as a Republican in 2016 and 2020. Since thats where his voter base is, thats how hell run if he wins the Republican primary. If he loses the primary, he could run as an Independent, but hes currently a Republican.

The Trump Presidential odds for 2024 come from sportsbooks and prediction markets. As bettors make wagers and sportsbooks adjust odds, the odds change and paint a picture of what bettors think will happen. However, sportsbook odds are skewed by bettor choices and sportsbook hedges. Prediction markets are more accurate than sportsbook odds, but nothing beats exit polls.

Aside from a few speeches and rallies, Trump has stayed at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida. He has also been investigated for his role in inciting the Capitol Riot, tax fraud in his businesses before running for president, and for taking classified documents home to Mar-a-Lago.

About the Author

What Are The Odds Of Trumps Winning In 2020

Kevin Lewis asks:

What are the odds of Trumps winning in 2020, given that the last three presidents were comfortably re-elected despite one being a serial adulterer, one losing the popular vote, and one bringing race to the forefront?

My reply:

Serial adulterer, poor vote in previous election, ethnicity . . . I dont think these are so important. It does seem that parties do better when running for a second term than when running for third term , but given our sparse data its hard to distinguish these three stories:1. Incumbency advantage: some percentage of voters support the president.2. Latent variable: given that a candidate wins once, thats evidence that hes a strong candidate, hence its likely hell win again.3. Pendulum or exhaustion: after awhile, voters want a change.

My guess is that the chances in 2020 of the Republican candidate will depend a lot on how the economy is growing at the time. This is all with the approximately 50/50 national division associated with political polarization. If the Republican party abandons Trump, that could hurt him a lot. But the party stuck with Trump in 2016 so they very well might in 2020 as well.

I guess I should blog this. Not because Im telling you anything interesting but because it can provide readers a clue as to how little I really know.

Also, by the time the post appears in March, who knows what will be happening.

Also Check: How Much Is It To Stay At Trump Tower

Registered Voters Divided On Which Candidate Will Win

Overall, registered voters are divided over who they think will win the 2020 November election: While 50% of voters believe that Trump will win the presidential election, 48% predict a victory for Biden.

And although voters predictions for who will win the presidential election largely align with their candidate preference, voters who support Trump or lean toward voting for him are slightly more likely than Biden supporters to say that their candidate will win .

Throughout the 2016 presidential campaign, majorities of voters consistently expected a Hillary Clinton victory. In August of 2016, 55% said Clinton would win, compared with 42% who expected Trump to win.

Trump supporters are far more confident their candidate will win today than they were four years ago. Currently, 90% of Trump supporters expect him to win at about the same point in the campaign four years ago, only 74% of Trump supporters said he would prevail over Clinton.

Today, voters who are more certain of their choice in candidate are more likely to expect that their candidate will win the 2020 election. Nearly all strong Trump supporters expect him to win, compared with 77% of his more moderate supporters. Similarly, among Biden supporters, those who support Biden strongly are more likely than those who support him moderately to expect him to win the November election.

Latest Posts

Popular Articles