Trumps Survival After Scandals
More than a year and a half since Trump left office, 58 percent of Americans hold an unfavorable view of him, according to this latest poll. That includes 89 percent of Democrats and 63 percent of independents. But 83 percent of Republicans say they still favor Trump, along with roughly a third of all Americans.
Trumps favorability among the GOP outpaces that of a handful of other Republicans who are considered potential rivals for a White House bid in 2024:
According to GOP strategist and conservative pollster Whit Ayres, most Republicans are also open to having a new candidate who carries less baggage than they believe Trump carries as their nominee in 2024.
It all depends on who the alternatives are, Ayres said. Most alternatives arent nationally known here.
Trumps political resilience is unlike anything else in U.S. presidential history, said Jeffrey Engel, who directs the Center for Presidential History at Southern Methodist University in Dallas.
As with everything with Donald Trump, history gives us no guide, Engel said.
One comparison is tough to ignore, though todays political dynamics are nearly opposite. In 1974, after an investigation uncovered that President Richard Nixons reelection campaign had bugged the phones at the Democratic National Committee headquarters, Nixon resigned in disgrace before he could be impeached. He retreated from public life and partially rebuilt his reputation in foreign policy during the decades that followed, Engel said.
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Morris told The Post Tuesday the January 6th commission hearings will backfire massively.
There is a fiddling-while-Rome-burns quality to the hearings. Much ado and much distraction about nothing. The more attention the issue draws, the more it becomes apparent that the Democrats are not talking about the concerns that bedevil the average person high prices and inflation at the pump, he said.
Morris likened the Democrats obsession with Trump and the Jan. 6 protests to Republicans in Congress moving to impeach President Bill Clinton over the Monica Lewinsky sex scandal, which hurt the GOP in the 1998 midterm elections because voters thought they made a mountain out of a molehill.
The book also was written before the Supreme Court rulings that tossed out restrictions on concealed guns, overturned the federal right to abortion and scrapped executive power to regulate greenhouse gas emissions on power plants without congressional approval, which could galvanize Democrats to go to the polls.
I do not think any of this terms Supreme Court rulings will have an adverse effect on Trumps chances or those of the Republicans in 22 or 24, he said.
The abortion decision has the most potential impact but, since state laws remain in force, the impact is largely theoretical and when people see how it works out theyll see that very little has really changed.
A Poll That Should Scare Donald Trump
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis takes 39% in a poll of the Republican presidential primary in New Hampshire, while Trump is at 37%. No other potential GOP contender manages double-digit support, with former Vice President Mike Pence in third place at 9%.
Thats a MAJOR change from where the race was last fall. A UNH poll in October 2021 showed Trump with 43% to DeSantis 18%.
Another interesting nugget from the poll: Just 6 in 10 self-identified Republicans want the former President to run again in 2024. Which is, well, sort of low?
Now, this is just one poll in a state expected to be one of the first to vote in the 2024 primary season. If you look at all the polling done in the broader Republican White House race, Trump still leads in the preponderance of it. And he would start a third bid for president as the favorite for the GOP nomination.
But its become increasingly clear that the primary race is no longer properly understood as Trump and everyone else, but rather Trump, DeSantis and everyone else.
And DeSantis has been, for a while now, acting less dependent on Trump.
As Politico reported Wednesday: According to four people connected to the governor and former president, DeSantis has not asked Trump for a formal endorsement and isnt planning to.
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Election Deniers Running For Secretary Of State
In three swing states, three candidates for secretary of state are running on falsehoods about 2020. All are backed by Trump.
One is Arizonaâs Mark Finchem, who spoke to constituents the day before the riot at the Capitol on Jan. 6, saying: âWhen you steal something, thatâs not really a win. Thatâs a fraud.â
Finchem has doubled down on those statements during his campaign for secretary of state â and now, more than 18 months later, says Joe Bidenâs win in Arizona should be decertified.
Biden Entered Fall Campaign With $466 Million In The Bank A $141 Million Cash Advantage Over Trump
From CNN’s Fredreka Schouten and Sarah Mucha
morat Joe Biden’s campaign and aligned Democratic Party committees entered September and the fall sprint to Election Day with $466 million in cash reserves giving the former vice president a significant financial advantage over President Trump.
Team Biden’s cash position, released by his campaign Sunday night, puts the Democratic nominee and his party about $141 million ahead of Trump’s political operation. It represents a sharp reversal from the opening months of the general election when Trump enjoyed a formidable financial lead.
The New York Times first reported Biden’s cash stockpile.
Heavy spending by Trump and record-breaking fundraising by Biden and his allies in August as he added California Sen. Kamala Harris to the ticket helped Democrats overtake the President and the Republican National Committee.
Trump and his joint operation with Republicans started September with $325 million in its cash stockpile, Trump campaign spokesperson Tim Murtaugh .
The numbers released Sunday came as campaigns filed reports with federal regulators detailing their fundraising and spending during August.
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Trump Moves To Make Supreme Court Vacancy A Central Issue In His Campaign
Analysis by Maeve Reston
Hoping to shift the public’s attention from his handling of the coronavirus pandemic, President Trump moved quickly on Saturday to make the new Supreme Court vacancy a central issue in his campaign, announcing he would name a woman to replace Ginsburg this week.
Trump, who had been facing a potentially historic deficit with women voters in part because of their disapproval of his handling of the pandemic, addressed Ginsburg’s death moments after he stepped on stage at his campaign rally in Fayetteville, North Carolina, Saturday night, calling her “a legal giant” whose “landmark rulings, fierce devotion to justice, and her courageous battle against cancer inspire all Americans.”
As the crowd began chanting “Fill That Seat!” Trump said he had not made a final choice but was inclined to choose a woman and then, with a theatrical flourish and no hint of irony, took a snap poll of the crowd to gauge whether they preferred a man or a woman to fill the seat of a justice who was an equal rights icon.
“It will be a woman, a very talented, very brilliant woman,” Trump said, after the crowd overwhelmingly cheered for a female nominee. “I haven’t chosen yet, but we have numerous women on the list.”
He called on Biden once again to release his list of potential nominees to the high court, but suggested it would be too politically fraught for the former vice president to do so.
Neither Trumps Standing Within The Gop Nor The Partys Views On His Culpability For Jan 6 Have Budged
Former White House aide Cassidy Hutchinsons vivid testimony last month to the select House committee investigating the Jan. 6 Capitol attack was the latest to shake Washington, but much like the panels other public hearings, it appears to have done little to change Americans minds about another presidential bid by Donald Trump, according to a new Morning Consult/Politico survey.
How voters feel about Trump 2024
- According to the , 66% of Republican voters think Trump should run for president in 2024, while 30% said he should not. The latest figures are down slightly since voters were last asked the question in March, but are similar to Trumps standing last fall.
- For comparison, 51% of Democratic voters think President Joe Biden should run for re-election while 40% think he should not .
- When it comes to support in a hypothetical Republican primary, 54% of GOP voters said theyd back Trump, in line with surveys conducted in June and down marginally from 56% in March.
- A separate Morning Consult survey found 53% of Republican voters said Trump should play a major role in the GOP, about steady with the 55% who said the same in a June 3-5 survey conducted before the panels public hearings began.
The Jan. 6 hearings negligible impact on Trumps standing
The stability of Trumps support among Republican voters comes alongside relatively low voter awareness of the committees investigations and other Jan. 6-related developments that have occurred in recent weeks.
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Ivanka Trump Fusses Over Dress In Jan 6 Documentary Teaser
Asked about Morris book, Trump told The Post, Ive known Dick Morris for a longtime and his father was a great real estate lawyer who represented me very well. Dick is a very talented person, and I would ask for his advice and opinions on matters of politics. Its what he loves and does best, and hes very good at it.
On another issue important to voters, Morris said Trump and the Republicans have a strong hand to play as the law-and-order party and paint Biden and the Democrats as soft on crime during the fall midterms and in 2024.
He said the left wing of the Democratic Partys campaign to defund the police is a gift to Trump and the GOP.
The crime issue is particularly toxic for the Democrats, because it is obvious to voters that it was not nearly as bad a problem before Biden was elected. Back in 2019, and before, crime had fallen out of the headlines and faded in popular consciousness. But after Bidens election, the movement to defund the police, and the vilification of dedicated, responsible, fair, and hardworking police officers has set the crime rate soaring. So who is to blame? Figure it out!, Morris said.
The Left wants to cut the number of uniformed police and replace them with social workers and psychologists to stem violence and escalation. So the next time you worry that a criminal is trying to break into your home, call 911 and wait for a social worker to arrive, he said.
The Capitol Riot Hearings Have Damaged Trumps Popularity And Cost Him A Major Media Ally
Donald Trump won a standing ovation after repeating his 2020 election rigging claims at a rally of young conservatives in Florida over the weekend.
The rapturous response at the Student Action Summit in Tampa was a departure from the lacklustre reception to his claims about the 2020 presidential race at other recent campaign rallies, said the Daily Mail.
Recent polls suggest that Trumps popularity has been dented by the hearings of the congressional inquiry exploring the 6 January riot at the US Capitol. The former president was booed at a rally in Arizona on Friday and has also lost the support of a key media ally.
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Trump Says Supreme Court Pick Is Down To 4 Or 5
From CNN’s Allie Malloy
President Trump discussed his Supreme Court nominee in an interview with Fox and Friends this morning, saying he is still looking at 4 to 5 candidates very seriously.”
Its down to five. It could be any one of them, Trump said on Fox and Friends Monday before adding it was probably four candidates.
He did discuss Barbara Lagoa and Amy Coney Barrett by name when asked about the women.
On Lagoa Trump said, Shes excellent. Shes Hispanic. Shes a terrific woman from everything I know I dont know her. Florida. We love Florida. When asked whether politics is a consideration, Trump said he thinks less so than the person themselves.
Trump was also asked about Ginsburgs dying wish in which she told her granddaughter that she doesnt want to be replaced until a new president is elected. Trump then claimed that he thinks that statement could have been written by Schiff, Schumer and Pelosi.
I dont know that she said that or was that written out by Adam Schiff and Schumer and Pelosi? I would be more inclined by the second That came out of the wind. Maybe she did or maybe she didnt. Look the bottom line is we won the election. We have an obligation to do whats right and act as quickly as possible. We should act quickly because were gonna have probably election things involved here because of the fake ballots that theyll be sending out, Trump said.
Here’s What Is On Trump And Biden’s Schedules Today
As President Trump and Joe Biden enter the fall sprint to Election Day, both candidates hit the campaign trail today and are set to deliver remarks.
- Trump is expected to travel to Ohio, where he will first deliver remarks at a “Workers for Trump” event at 4:30 p.m. ET in Vandalia and then hold a “Great American Comeback” rally at 7:00 p.m. ET in Swanton.
- Biden travels to Manitowoc, Wisconsin, and is set deliver remarks at 3:15 p.m. ET. This will mark Bidens second trip to Wisconsin since becoming the official Democratic presidential nominee. He traveled earlier this month to the Milwaukee area and Kenosha, the city where the police shooting of 29-year-old Jacob Blake reignited protests over racial injustice.
Check out CNN’s Poll of Polls which tracks the national average in the race here.
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Republicans Cant Understand Democrats
Only one in four Republican voters felt that most or almost all Democratic voters sincerely believed they were voting in the best interests of the country. Rather, many Republicans told us that Democratic voters were brainwashed by the propaganda of the mainstream media, or voting solely in their self-interest to preserve undeserved welfare and food stamp benefits.
We asked every Republican in the sample to do their best to imagine that they were a Democrat and sincerely believed that the Democratic Party was best for the country. We asked them to explain their support for the Democratic Party as an actual Democratic voter might. For example, a 64-year-old strong Republican man from Illinois surmised that Democrats want to help the poor, save Social Security, and tax the rich.
But most had trouble looking at the world through Democratic eyes. Typical was a a 59-year-old Floridian who wrote I dont want to work and I want cradle to grave assistance. In other words, Mommy! Indeed, roughly one in six Republican voters answered in the persona of a Democratic voter who is motivated free college, free health care, free welfare, and so on. They see Democrats as voting in order to get free stuff without having to work for it was extremely common roughly one in six Republican voters used the word free in the their answers, whereas no real Democratic voters in our sample answered this way.
Can The Polls Lie
Ryan Hurl, assistant professor of political science at the University of Toronto in Scarborough, said the polls show that Biden is in a better position than Clinton was in 2016.
But there is still an outside possibility that were dealing with the biggest shy Tory event in modern history, he said.
The shy Tory is when conservative voters sometimes dont tell the truth about their voting preferences, Hurl explained. This has also been called the shy Trump effect, which is when Trump supporters are too shy to admit they back him.
This might be happening and you can understand how that could be. This is an era of distrust in institutions and that can extend to polling, such as people not answering polls or deliberately being deceptive, he added.
Clifford Young, president of Ipsos Public Affairs, said there is always a chance that Trump can still win, as people may change their minds when voting or have been dishonest to pollsters.
It does look like Biden is going to win, but we were surprised in 2016, Young said.
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Trumps Support In Iowa For Another Run Surpasses Bidens
According to news reports, Trumps decision is more a matter of when to launch a 2024 campaign, not if he should.
Some Republican operatives believe he should wait to make an announcement until after the November midterm elections to avoid taking the focus off Biden, whose approval ratings have plummeted amid rising inflation and soaring gas prices. But aides and allies have said an announcement could come as early as this summer.
Unlike Biden, Trump has fared well in Iowa in the past, placing second in the 2016 presidential caucuses and carrying the state in both the 2016 and 2020 general elections. Today, he garners more support in Iowa for another presidential bid than Biden, his 2020 rival, the poll shows.
Just 23% of Iowans say they hope Biden, 79, runs for president again, while 67% say they hope he does not. Nine percent are not sure.
Unlike Trump, Biden fails to garner a majority of support from within his own party for another campaign. Among Democrats, just 37% say he should run again, while 52% say they hope he does not.
Bidens approval rating in Iowa has hit a new low at 27%. At the same time, the share of Iowans who believe the country is on the wrong track has surpassed even what it was during the 2008 Great Recession. Today, 84% of Iowans believe things in the nation are on the wrong track. Just 10% say they believe things are headed in the right direction.