Donald Trump Beats Joe Biden In Latest 2024 Election Poll
Although former President Donald Trump has not formally announced plans to run for reelection in 2024, new polling suggests he is well-positioned for a rematch against President Joe Biden and could even come out as the winner.
The poll released Friday by Emerson College shows Trump narrowly beating Biden in a hypothetical matchup. While neither Trump nor Biden is backed by the majority of voters, the former president is currently 2 points ahead of the current president.
Trump is supported by 45 percent of registered voters while Biden is backed by just 43 percent, the latest Emerson survey data shows. Meanwhile, 11 percent of registered voters said they want to vote for “someone else,” and just 1 percent said they remain “undecided.”
Emerson’s new poll was conducted from November 3 to 4 with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Notably, the gap between Trump and Biden has widened a bit since Emerson carried out a similar poll in early September. That previous survey showed Trump leading Biden by just 1 percentage point. However, both the Republican and Democrat were supported by a larger number of registered voters at the time.
Trump was backed by 47 percent compared to 46 percent who supported Biden. As of this month, Trump’s support has declined by 2 points while Biden’s has dropped by 3 points.
Texas Lyceum Only Conducts One Poll Per Year
|In 2016, their poll showed Clinton with 38% of the vote and Trump with 35%. No rating and when examining the crosstabs it showed Bernie with 57% of the vote for the 18-29 age group.The poll also showed Sema Hernandez leading the Senate race in the youngest age group. When she ran for Senate in 2018, O’Rourke beat her 62% to 24% with another candidate at 14%.The poll doesn’t have any history of accuracy and I wouldn’t recommend making any wagers based upon it.From an anecdotal perspective from riding my bike, the campaign signs are Biden at 2, all others at 0. I did see one college student wearing a Bernie T-shirt at my college homecoming at the beginning of October though. Not sure if the shirt was from 2016 or 2020 or if it was the only clean shirt he could find to wear since homecoming was around the time that mid-terms were being held.Candidate preference:Biden|
Just Ask Michael Dukakis Or George W Bush
Graphics by Jasmine Mithani
FiveThirtyEights general election polling averages debuted last week, showing that former Vice President Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, holds a big lead over President Trump in national surveys about 10 percentage points as of 5:30 p.m. on Wednesday.
So how does Bidens lead stack up to those in previous cycles? We compared his standing at this point to previous presidential elections by applying our polling average methodology to polls from past cycles. And as you can see in the chart below, both Bidens average support and margin over Trump are historically large the largest of any contender since Bill Clinton in 1996.
Of course, there are still four months to go until Election Day, but the fact that Biden has such a sizable lead already bigger than Hillary Clintons largest lead over Trump, which peaked at 7.5 points in 2016 is notable. Heck, even Barack Obama never led by more than 8 points in our 2008 national average, and that wound up being a blowout.
But before you declare Biden the winner, remember his lead is not insurmountable. Polls closer to November could very well show a race that is tightening. At this point in the 1988 cycle, Michael Dukakis led nationally by almost 5 points, and in 2000, George W. Bush was up by nearly 8 points. But Dukakis ended up losing in November while Bush narrowly lost the popular vote.
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Trump 2024 Would Beat Either Biden Or Harris
Thursday, September 23, 2021
Voters are divided on whether former President Donald Trump should run again in 2024, but most would vote for him in a race against either President Joe Biden or Vice President Kamala Harris.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 48% of Likely U.S. Voters think it would be a good idea for Trump to run for president again in 2024, while 44% say it would be a bad idea.
. Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on or .
The survey of 1,000 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on September 21-22, 2021 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology
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Rasmussen Reports is a media company specializing in the collection, publication and distribution of public opinion information.
To learn more about our methodology, .
Approval Of Bidens Response Varies Widely By Party
A calculation of the share of Democrats, Republicans and independents who approve of the presidents handling of the coronavirus outbreak
This tracker will update daily with new polling data about Americans reactions to the coronavirus pandemic.
Our averages are calculated similarly to how we handle presidential approval ratings, which means we account for the quality of the pollster and each pollsters house effects , in addition to a polls recency and sample size. In cases where the pollster did not provide sample sizes by party, they were calculated based on the percentage of total respondents who identified with each party. If the same poll asked more than one relevant question , we included both questions, but the results of those questions were averaged together, then input into the model, so the poll was not double counted.
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Wednesdays Forecast Is The First Published By Fivethirtyeight Since Kamala Harris Was Chosen As Joe Bidens Running Mate
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Wednesdays forecast, the first issued by FiveThirtyEight since Kamala Harris was announced as Mr Bidens running mate, gives Mr Trump just a 29 per cent chance of winning the 2020 presidential election.
While its clear that Biden is comfortably ahead of Trump right now – nationally and in most battleground states – the forecast shows Trump with a meaningful chance of winning because theres still plenty of time for the race to tighten, FiveThirtyEight said in a statement, adding: But wait! Should you even trust the polls?
Trump Leads Biden By 7% In Slu/yougov Poll
Joe Biden leads Donald Trump rather comfortably in national polling with a realclearpolitics.com average of about 9%, 49% to 40%. Biden also leads Trump in most Battleground states. However, our SLU/YouGov Poll shows Trump with a rather comfortable lead in Missouri among likely voters, 50% to Bidens 43%.
Missouri was once touted as the nations best bellwether state during the 1900s, but Missouri has been trending red, especially in presidential elections since Bill Clinton won Missouri in 1992 and 1996. Missouri has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since, voting for George W. Bush twice, John McCain, Mitt Romney, and Donald Trump with Romney and especially Trump winning by large vote margins.
Support among men and women for Trump in Missouri is also down from 2016, from 62% to 56.5% for men and from 53% to 43% among women. Although Trump still shows strong support among voters without a college degree, his support among four-year college graduates is sharply down. Among these college graduates, he has fallen from 55% support in 2016 to 41% in our poll. While 45% of males with four-year college degrees say they will vote for Trump, only 36% of four-year college degreed women say they will.
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Nope We Need Radical Reversal Of Trump Policies
|We certainly don’t need a person with little energy, who looks tired, and will try to get along with republicans and push bi-partisanship. It is already too late for that. Only choices left are Warren, Sanders or Buttigieg. The 2 billionaires would be good, but do not possess the political skills to win in general.Candidate preference:Undecided|
|Is going to keep trump policies. Candidate preference:Biden|
Fivethirtyeight Politics Podcast: Trump Narrows The Gap With Latino Voters
Trumps chances havent improved much elsewhere, but its worth noting that his standing hasnt really worsened in a couple of right-leaning battleground states that Democrats have eyed, like Georgia and Ohio, either. Thats important for Trump because not only would losing either state dramatically hurt his chances of winning overall , but it also signals that this election might not be a blowout where Democrats turn states like Georgia and Texas blue.
Bottom line: The broad electoral picture hasnt changed much since we launched the forecast in mid-August, but weve observed some real changes in a number of key battleground states. The problem for the president is that most of those shifts have been to Bidens benefit, except for the all-important state of Florida. Trump very much remains in contention, but he is an underdog for reelection at this point.
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Why Does It Matter
Wisconsin sided with the Democratic candidate in all presidential elections from 1988 through 2012, although sometimes by very narrow margins. In 2016, Trump managed to flip the state despite his underdog status in the polls.
Americans are also electing members to the two chambers of Congress, the main law-making body of the US. Those chambers are the Senate and the House of Representatives.
Without support in the Senate and the House, the president’s ability to enact key policies is severely limited.
The winner of the election is determined through a system called the electoral college. Each of the 50 states, plus Washington DC, is given a number of electoral college votes, adding up to a total of 538 votes. More populous states get more electoral college votes than smaller ones.
A candidate needs to win 270 electoral college votes to win the election.
In every state except two Maine and Nebraska the candidate that gets the most votes wins all of the states electoral college votes.
Due to these rules, a candidate can win the election without getting the most votes at the national level. This happened at the last election, in which Donald Trump won a majority of electoral college votes although more people voted for Hillary Clinton across the US.
Its Hard To Know What The Fundamentals Say
Ive long been critical of models that use economic fundamentals to try to predict election results, mostly because although they claim to be highly precise they havent actually been very good at predicting the outcome of an election where they dont already know the results.
And those models are especially likely to have problems this year because of highly variable economic data. One model based on second quarter GDP projects Trump to win -453 electoral votes, for example. But if you built a model based on third-quarter GDP, which is expected to be highly positive, it might predict a Trump landslide.
This isnt to say that we dont employ a fundamentals forecast of our own. We do, but its much less confident than others, and it receives relatively little weight in the overall forecast. It also isnt currently that bad for Trump. In fact, it essentially predicts the popular vote to be roughly tied. Why?
In other words, our forecast thinks its far from obvious that the economy will doom Trump, especially if he can tell a story of recovery by November. Indeed, Trumps approval ratings on the economy are still fairly good, so our model seems to be doing a reasonably good job of capturing how voters actually feel about the economy.
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A 10 Percent Chance Isnt Zero And Theres A Chance Of A Recount Too
ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / FABIO BUONOCORE
Its tempting to write this story in the form of narrative fiction: On a frigid early December morning in Washington, the Supreme Court ruled 5-4 that disputed mail ballots in Pennsylvania You know, that kind of thing. But given the stakes in this election, I think its important to be prosaic and sober-minded instead.
So lets state a few basic facts: The reasons that President Trumps chances in our forecast are about 10 percent and not zero:
- As in 2016, Trump could potentially benefit from the Electoral College. Projected than the margins in the national popular vote.
- More specifically, Joe Bidens lead in Pennsylvania the most likely tipping-point state, according to our forecast is solid but not spectacular: about 5 points in our polling average.
- Without Pennsylvania, Biden does have some paths to victory, but theres no one alternative state he can feel especially secure about.
- While a lot of theories about why Trump can win are probably wrong, systematic polling errors do occur, and its hard to predict them ahead of time or to anticipate the reasons in advance.
- There is some chance that Trump could win illegitimately. To a large extent, these scenarios are beyond the scope of our forecast.
- Theres also some chance of a recount or an Electoral College tie , according to our forecast.
Trump Vs Desantis By The Numbers
Based on a casual reading of the polls, Donald Trump looks to have smooth sailing to the Republican presidential nomination in 2024 and the chance to erase the stink of losing to Joe Biden that he so covets. But if thats the case, why does Trump seem so panicky these days? Simple: Trump is in trouble, and when you dig into the numbers his grip on the GOP nomination is getting more tenuous. It is Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis who has all the momentum.
The good news for Trump is that he still has high approval numbers among Republicans and leads in all but one of the GOP primary ballot tests. But that is where the good news ends. Trump is trending down against DeSantis on the national ballot and, for the first time, is losing in a state primary ballot test. According to FiveThirtyEight, Trump was regularly besting DeSantis with totals in the upper 50s to more than 60 percent, but the last time he hit 60 percent was in Echelons late-April poll. In the past month, Trump has mostly been in the low to mid-50s.
Make no mistake, DeSantis is running, just in a highly calculated, surreptitious manner. As a result, his national numbers are not that great at face value. He lags Trump nationally and in primary polling. His national approval is 33 percent approve, 37 percent disapprove, according to the Yahoo News poll. He also has to get through reelection in Florida in November.
Trumps gathering storm
Trump feeling the heat
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