Opinionhow A Socialist Candidate Can Win The Us Presidential Election In 2020
The social forces that propelled Sanders to the national stage in 2016 after years as an obscure voice for progress seemed to surprise even him and even more so than last time, hes running to win, not just to start a conversation.
Of course, his candidacy would never have taken off the way it did in 2016 or again in 2020 if grassroots movements like Occupy Wall Street and Black Lives Matter hadn’t empowered regular, working class people to talk about our political-economic system’s failure to deliver on their promises for all but a lucky few. And, more recently, the nationwide wave of teachers strikes both fed into, and was fed by, the movement behind Sanders.
The Reason Sanders Appears Equally Electable
These Bernie or bust voters that come off the sidelines for Sanders in our survey are almost entirely limited to one group: Democrats and independents under age 35. These voters are about 11 percentage points more likely to say they would vote for Democrats if Sanders is nominated and almost all of them say they would not vote at all or vote third party if hes not on the ballot.
However, the Bernie or bust phenomenon appears almost entirely limited to left-leaning young people, who are usually a small share of the overall electorate. This stands in contrast to many theories of Sanderss electoral appeal: For example, whites without a college degree a demographic some speculate Sanders could win over are actually more likely to say they will vote for Trump against Sanders than against the other Democrats. The same is true of the rest of the electorate, except left-leaning young people.
This finding in our data mirrors many other surveys: Morning Consult finds dramatic increases in young Americans stated turnout intentions when asked how they would vote in matchups between Sanders and Trump.
And Then Coronavirus Changed Everything
In the US, concern about coronavirus hit suddenly and decisively around mid-March, pushing politics to the periphery in news bulletins but not necessarily in the minds of Americans.
Healthcare was front of mind. So too was the economy. Presidential leadership mattered in a way it hadn’t during the Russia probe or Ukraine scandal.
With sports and TV shows cancelled, millions of Americans tuned in to the first one-on-one debate featuring Biden and Sanders.
Biden, aided by the lack of a cheering crowd, laid out step-by-step plans for how he’d fight the virus if he were president today.
Sanders stuck to the same policy ideas he always had, talking about redistributing wealth and overhauling the healthcare system.
“It has nothing to do with Medicare for All. That does not solve the problem at all,” Biden responded.
“People are looking for results, not a revolution.”
The next round of primaries again went to Biden. Then the next.
Living through a world turned upside down, Americans went the way of South Carolina and decided they could no longer entertain the idea of a political revolution or a sudden shift to socialist policies. They wanted safety, security and predictability.
They wanted Joe Biden.
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Could Bernie Sanders Win This Time Around
In the same poll, 29 percent of Democrats thought Sanders was likely to beat Trump, while only 17 percent thought Biden would a precipitous 12-point drop for Biden from the organizations post-Iowa poll and a six-point increase for Sanders. .
The change in the two men’s prospects is even more pronounced among black voters, who have been some of Bidens strongest supporters their perception of Biden as the most electable candidate fell 10 points to 21 percent, while Sanders rose nine points to 32 percent. That is especially bad for Biden considering that hes centered much of his pitch around being the safest bet against Trump a consideration many Democratic voters, particularly people of color, rank highly in their thinking.
Sanders Backs Biden As Ex
WASHINGTON Bernie Sanders has endorsed Joe Bidens presidential campaign, encouraging his progressive supporters to rally behind the presumptive Democratic nominee in an urgent bid to defeat President Donald Trump.
I am asking all Americans, Im asking every Democrat, Im asking every independent, Im asking a lot of Republicans, to come together in this campaign to support your candidacy, which I endorse, the Vermont senator said Monday in a virtual event with Biden.
The backing came less than a week after Sanders ended his presidential campaign, which was centered around progressive policies such as universal health care. There were early signs that some leading progressives werent ready to fully follow Sanders lead. And Trumps campaign was eager to use the endorsement to tie Biden more closely to Sanders, whose identity as a democratic socialist is objectionable to Republicans and some Democrats.
Still, Sanders embrace of Biden was crucial for someone who is tasked with bridging the Democratic Partys entrenched ideological divides. Democratic disunity helped contribute to Hillary Clintons loss to Trump in 2016.
Sanders said theres no great secret out there that you and I have our differences.
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Can Sanders Beat Trump A Growing Number Of Democratic Voters Say Yes
By Joseph Ax
6 Min Read
NEW YORK – Bernie Sanders Democratic presidential rivals warn that nominating the self-described democratic socialist will ensure President Donald Trumps re-election, but a growing number of the partys voters see the senator as their best chance of winning in November.
Sanders dominating performance in last weeks Nevada caucuses, powered by growing support across age, race and ideology, has set off alarm bells among Democratic Party officials who believe putting the progressive stalwart at the top of the ticket will harm the partys chances up and down the ballot.
Sanders electability was a prime topic at Tuesdays Democratic presidential debate in South Carolina. Rivals contended his ambitious liberal policy ideas, such as Medicare for All, which would replace private health insurance, would be an electoral catastrophe, costing the party the White House and control of Congress.
But the latest Reuters/Ipsos polling shows Sanders rising momentum in the race – a near win in Iowa, a narrow victory in New Hampshire and a decisive win in Nevada – has given him more credibility with Democratic voters.
Some 26% of Democrats and independents polled Feb. 17-25 said they believed Sanders was the strongest Democrat in a head-to-head matchup with Trump, compared with 20% who picked billionaire businessman Michael Bloomberg and 17% who named former Vice President Joe Biden.
MAJOR CONCERNS AMONG MODERATES
‘bernie Or Bust’ Won’t Beat Trump
None of this is meant to endorse any sort of hostage-taking Bernie or bust mentality.
His followers occasional threats to withhold support for their nonpreferred nominee are as unconscionable as theyd be from anyone who should oppose Trump, given the purposeful damage this president gleefully does to the most vulnerable. This spite along with a sometimes creepy hostility toward normie Democrats and a willingness to traffic in conspiratorial thinking that invests mystical sway in a sometimes comically inept Democratic National Committee offers some evidence that this movement may lack the coalition-building potential necessary to defeat Trump.
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But this divisiveness does not often appear in Sanders himself, who has a proven distaste for distractions like Hillary Clinton’s damn emails.
Like the vast majority of Sanders supporters in the 2016 election, Id gladly vote for any Democratic nominee over Trump. This senator isnt even my favorite senator running for the nomination. Yet one reason I have to seriously consider Sanders is that he has the clearest path to uniting the Democratic Party and ousting the evil clown in the Oval Office.
And if you only care about winning, you cant ignore that.
Jason Sattler, a writer based in Ann Arbor, Michigan, is a member of USA TODAYs Board of Contributors and host of “The GOTMFV Show” podcast. Follow him on Twitter:
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Another Shot At The Prize
Four years ago, Sanders also followed a tight result in Iowa with a victory in New Hampshire. That contest was actually more decisive – a 20-point win over Hillary Clinton, who was considered the prohibitive favourite entering the race.
Sanders’ 2016 New Hampshire triumph, however, was a springboard into an empty pool.
He followed his win in the overwhelmingly white New England state with a narrow loss in Nevada and a drubbing in South Carolina, where the Democratic voting population is majority black. Although there were a few bright spots after that – victories in Michigan and Wisconsin – Clinton spent the next few months pulling away from Sanders in the nomination race.
Now Sanders is back, hoping history doesn’t repeat itself. Facing a more crowded field, he appears to be in a much better position, as the nomination fight becomes a state-by-state slog on a battleground that stretches the breadth of the nation.
There is no Clinton machine waiting to do battle against the Sanders insurgency this time around. Instead, the Vermont senator heads out of New Hampshire along with a ragtag mix of candidates all scrambling for a foothold.
Joe Biden, the apparent front-runner through much of 2019, is grievously wounded by poor showings in the first two contests. Elizabeth Warren, the other candidate appealing to the liberal wing of the Democratic Party, has finished behind Sanders twice now and shows no signs gaining any ground.
Bernie Sanderss Strength And Weaknesses Against Trump
To beat President Trump, most political analysts agree the Democratic nominee is going to have to do two things:
Can Sen Bernie Sanders , the current front-runner who describes himself as a democratic socialist, do that? Anyone who says they know the answer doesnt. But here are some data points from recent national polls and from his dominant performance in the Nevada caucus to help us look closer at this question.
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Americans Remembered Those Ideas When Sanders Launched His 2020 Campaign
When Sanders announced he was running again in 2019, the New York Times ran the story on its cover.
That fundraising power would continue to propel Sanders to the top of the historically big and diverse field of candidates.
But all the while the moderate wing of the Democratic Party was still sceptical of Sanders’ beliefs, and even progressives thought he had obstacles to the nomination.
One was the belief that Sanders, age 78, was too old to take on the nomination.
Those worries amplified in October when he suffered a heart attack, the kind of health disaster that would end other candidates’ campaigns.
For Sanders, the medical emergency was shortly followed by a rise in the polls, thanks in part to the strength of his campaign surrogates. The first rally Sanders held after his heart attack was headlined by Democratic darling Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
He only gained ground from there, earning endorsements from hundreds of celebrities and influencers and becoming the most popular candidate with Democrats under the age of 35.
Even with that popularity or maybe because of it some worried that Sanders’ stubborn commitment to progressive ideals could never do enough to unify the Democratic base.
“Everyone’s just talking about electability,” one Sanders supporter told the ABC ahead of the nation’s first democratic nominating contest, the Iowa caucuses.
“I’m putting my money on Biden, and I’ll vote for him if he’s the one that can beat Trump.”
Trump Can Absolutely Kill Him: Wall Street Shrugs Off Sanders
The finance world is treating the prospect of a President Sanders much like it generally dismissed a possible President Trump in 2016.
02/12/2020 12:36 PM EST
An avowed democratic socialist narrowly won the New Hampshire primary, propelled by promises to jack up taxes on the rich, nationalize health care and take a sledgehammer to the nations banking behemoths.
Wall Street has so far reacted to the rise of Sen. Bernie Sanders with a massive yawn because few in the industry think the Vermont senator has a real shot at becoming president.
Stocks continue to pop to new highs even as Sanders climbs the Democratic field and pledges to come after the wealthy with a zealous passion.
Thats because the overwhelming consensus on Wall Street these days is that should Sanders wind up as the Democratic nominee sliding past a handful of moderates also at the top of the field he would get demolished by President Donald Trump in the general election.
Theres no Bernie fear at all, because I think the general view is that he is just way too far left of a candidate to beat Trump and a more moderate candidate would be much more competitive, said Steve Massocca of Wedbush Equity Management. If Bernie becomes the candidate and you assume Wall Street wants Trump to win again and I think they do then this is nothing but good news.
There also remains some level of confidence across Wall Street that the eventual nominee will be someone not named Bernie Sanders.
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Deafening Silence On Migrant Kids And Other Commentary
With a popular-vote victory in Iowa and an outright win in New Hampshire, Bernie Sanders has officially emerged as the frontrunner for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination. Many commentators have noted the parallels between Sanderss surging, antiestablishment candidacy and Donald Trumps 2016 campaign. The analogy is real. Both men can call upon large, passionate bases of support. Both have also had to contend with the fierce resistance of a party elite bent on denying them victory, along with unfair media coverage.
Trump, of course, confronts these challenges with glee. From the earliest days of his campaign, right through to his celebratory, post-impeachment acquittal press conference, he has turned the tables on the DC insiders.
Trump is a fighter, a self-described counterpuncher, and sold himself to the electorate as such. His voters prize this quality, perhaps above all others. They know that, in Trump, they have a champion who will stand up for them, and see proof of this in his ability to stand up first for himself. It is doubtful, after all, that Trump will ever suffer a Mitt Romney-style Candy Crowley moment. When attacked or corrected by his opponents or the media Donald Trump retaliates with force.
Nor did he ask why a US senator, presidential candidate, and supposed friend would find it appropriate to discuss alleged, private comments for political gain, and whether such a person could, therefore, ever be trusted.