Hard To Get There From Here
The idea of a center party has great appeal in theory. In practice, few agree on what centrist means. Lots of people, when asked this question, envision a center party that reflects all their own views and none of the views they disagree with.
Thats where a Trump Party does have one advantage. Prospective Trump Party supporters do agree on what they stand for: Donald Trump.
Yet theres an easier path for Trump supporters than fighting the U.S. electoral system, unfriendly ballot access rules and entrenched party identification. Thats to take over the Republican Party. In fact, theyre very close to doing so now.
Trump retains a powerful hold over the partys policies. His adviser, Jason Miller, stated, Trump effectively is the Republican Party. This Trump Party is very different from Ronald Reagans GOP. Thats not surprising the U.S. major parties have always been permeable and vulnerable to takeover by factions.
There are good reasons for Americans to want more major parties. Its hard for two parties to capture the diversity of views in a nation of more than 300 million people.
But American politics would look very different if the country had a viable multi-party system, in which voters could choose from among, say, a Socialist Party, a White Supremacist Party and maybe even a Party for the Animals.
How Concerned Are You About Covid
MANCHESTER, N.H. Former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg is seen as the best candidate to defeat President Trump, according to exit polls in New Hampshires first-in-the-nation primary.
When asked who has the best chance against Mr. Trump, 27% of voters pointed to Mr. Buttigieg, compared to 21% who said Sen. Amy Klobuchar, and 19% who named Sen. Bernard Sanders of Vermont.
One of the consistent themes of the 2020 Democratic nomination has been that voters from across the ideological spectrum are most concerned with making sure Mr. Trump doesnt win a second term.
TOP STORIES
Who Can Beat Trump Who Knows
The Democratic candidates are all debating a singular issue. New polls offer insights, not answers.
- Read in app
Hi. Welcome to On Politics, your guide to the day in national politics. Im Giovanni Russonello, your morning newsletter writer taking over your afternoon edition.
to get On Politics in your inbox every weekday.
At Wednesday nights Democratic presidential debate, the candidates bickered and battled over health care policy over Michael Bloombergs record and his right to represent a party that he only recently rejoined over the possible dangers of nominating a democratic socialist.
But in a way, it all seemed like just window dressing around one big question: Who has the best chance in November? Every policy critique seemed to lead inexorably back to this issue of electability.
In his very first comments at the debate, Mr. Bloomberg didnt just criticize Senator Bernie Sanderss plan to create a single-payer health care system he said it would cause Democrats to lose the general election.
I dont think theres any chance of the senator beating President Trump, Mr. Bloomberg said. You dont start out by saying Ive got 160 million people, Im going to take away the insurance plan that they love.
Mr. Sanders shot back, arguing that Mr. Bloomberg, the former New York mayor, was a billionaire saying that we should not raise the minimum wage or that we should cut Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.
Drop us a line!
You May Like: Is Trump Going To Win
Joseph R Biden Jr Former Vice President
Mr. Bidens argument about being the most electable candidate is increasingly not the subtext of his campaign its the text.
But it wasnt until the closing portion of the debate that he said Democrats had to be mindful of who can win and bring some coattails to ensure the party reclaims the Senate.
Who has the best chance, most likely chance, of defeating Donald Trump, who is the one most likely to do that? he asked, before continuing: Who can help elect Democrats to the United States Senate in states like North Carolina and Georgia and Arizona and other states?
For most of the night Thursday, however, he avoided stating why hed be the Democrat most likely to win against Mr. Trump, instead trumpeting his knowledge of foreign affairs and boasting that hes running on his near half-century in politics. With my experience comes judgment and a little bit of wisdom, Mr. Biden said.
Mr. Biden had one of his better debate performances Thursday, in part because he was able to make a succinct pitch for his viability and even more because he watched two of his most daunting rivals in Iowa, Mr. Buttigieg and Ms. Warren, tangle with each other.
The Reason Sanders Appears Equally Electable
These Bernie or bust voters that come off the sidelines for Sanders in our survey are almost entirely limited to one group: Democrats and independents under age 35. These voters are about 11 percentage points more likely to say they would vote for Democrats if Sanders is nominated and almost all of them say they would not vote at all or vote third party if hes not on the ballot.
However, the Bernie or bust phenomenon appears almost entirely limited to left-leaning young people, who are usually a small share of the overall electorate. This stands in contrast to many theories of Sanderss electoral appeal: For example, whites without a college degree a demographic some speculate Sanders could win over are actually more likely to say they will vote for Trump against Sanders than against the other Democrats. The same is true of the rest of the electorate, except left-leaning young people.
This finding in our data mirrors many other surveys: Morning Consult finds dramatic increases in young Americans stated turnout intentions when asked how they would vote in matchups between Sanders and Trump.
Recommended Reading: Where To Get Trump 2020 Signs
The Big Question For Michigan Democrats: Is Biden Or Sanders More Likely To Beat Trump
Joe Biden, left, and Bernie Sanders are set for a competitive Democratic presidential primary race in Michigan on March 10, 2020.
Tom Wentz and Troy Zukowski-Serlin are Michigan residents passionate about wanting President Trump voted out of office.
But Wentz and Zukowski-Serlin have different theories on how to make that happen.
Wentz, a 38-year-old Hillsdale resident, thinks the Democrats need Bernie Sanders as their candidate. Only Sanders can channel the passion and populist fervor that got Trump elected in 2016, he says.
If its not Bernie, Trump wins. I strongly believe that, Wentz said. Sanders brings out voters who otherwise dont give a s***.
Wentz said hed have a hard time voting for Joe Biden, Sanders main competitor for the Democratic nomination.
As an establishment candidate, Biden is “the complete opposite of Bernie, Wentz said. I thought we wanted to vote for change.
Zukowski-Serlin, a 56-year-old Portage resident, has the opposite view.
In a country exhausted by the Trump presidency, he sees Biden as an experienced, well-respected leader who can beat Trump in November by promising a return to normalcy and stability.
I think hes a good man, Zukowski-Serlin said about Sanders, a self-described democratic socialist. But his policies are too far out of the mainstream.
As Michigan Democrats weigh their options for the states presidential primary on Tuesday, its largely come down to Sanders vs. Biden.
Read more on MLive:
Who Can Beat Hillary Clinton
After this week’s debate, more than a dozen political experts name the GOP candidates whoâd be the most formidable debaters against Clinton.
The ability to defeat Hillary Clinton in a general election debate is the ultimate test of 2016âs Republican presidential hopefuls. Thatâs why, following tonightâs GOP primary debate in Milwaukee, Politico Magazine asked political experts on left and right which Republican candidate would fare best against Clinton.
GOP candidates like to brag about how theyâd wipe the floor with the former Secretary of State in a debate. âI am Hillary Clintonâs worst nightmare,â Carly Fiorina confidently declared in an earlier debate. Months ago, Donald Trump predicted âbeating in a debate would be one of the easy challenges of my life.â It seems every GOP candidate has, at one time or another, professed similar eagerness to take on the Democratsâ presumptive nominee. And each candidate claims to be the best person for the job.
That begs the question: who should Clinton really fear most? To cut through the spin, Politico Magazineâs experts spell out why the Republican candidates they select would have the best shot at beating Clinton one-on-one. These expertsâ responses are collected below.
âCruzâs unmistakable erudition, well-oiled agility, and irritating, implacable calm would serve him well against a similarly square rival.â
Recommended Reading: Will Trump Win In 2020
The Proof Is In The Polling
This research suggests, then, that Mr Biden could perform better than his competitors against Mr Trump. He is more moderate than Mr Sanders, so both more likely to attract swing voters and less likely to motivate Republicans to vote against him. His strength with both black and racially conservative white voters could make a big difference in swing states. Recent polling from the New York Times and Siena College suggests that 6% of the electorate would vote for Mr Bidenbut not for Elizabeth Warrenagainst Mr Trump.
His advantage is evident in polls. According to The Economists analysis of publicly released polling data, Mr Biden performs better against Mr Trump than his competitors, nationwide and in swing states. Although polls of the general election conducted this early before a contest are not perfect, they are still helpful.
Mr Biden is not faultless. He is uninspiring on the stump and in debates. His Washington ties may inspire resentment from voters sceptical of elites. His candidacy would also represent a safety-first strategy for the Democrats at a time when many in the party desperately want to push a much more progressive economic, racial and social agenda. Yet for all that he still appears to be the Democrats best option in a contest against Mr Trump.
Dig deeper:Sign up and subscribe to Checks and Balance, our new newsletter and podcast on American politics
What Are The Chances Well Know The Next President On Election Night
In addition, theres something to be said for the idea that its worthwhile to lock in a vote. If someone has already voted, theyre 100 percent likely to vote . What about someone who says theyre planning to vote on Election Day but hasnt done so yet? Theyre certainly not 100 percent likely to vote. Something could come up on Election Day they get stuck late at work, they blow out a tire, they feel sick, they dont bother because they think their candidate is losing. Indeed, even some of the people that pollsters deem to be the most likely voters dont wind up voting. If 2 percent of mail voters have their votes rejected, but 5 percent of likely Election Day voters dont wind up voting, then polls could underestimate Democrats.
Wait, wasnt this supposed to be a post about how Trump could beat his polls? Well, the point is just that mail voting creates additional uncertainty this year, and its easy to imagine how that could help out Trump or Biden.
Another potential source of anxiety for pollsters is the Hispanic vote. Polls show Trump having made significant gains relative to 2016 with Hispanic voters and to a lesser extent with Black voters, especially Black men. This is not enough to offset gains that Biden has made with white voters, however, including white voters both with and without a college degree.
You May Like: Can Donald Trump Win 2020 Election
Sanders Viewed As Best Candidate To Beat Trump By Democrats And Independents Who Watched Latest Debates: Poll
A plurality of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who watched either of the two most recent presidential debates believe Sen. Bernie Sanders has the best chance of defeating President Donald Trump in November, according to an ABC News/Ipsos poll out Friday.
“The empirical evidence shows that there is no need for alarm about Mr. Sanders being the Democratic nominee, and even some cause for confidence.” Steve Phillips, Center for American Progress
The survey found that 34% of Democrats who watched any part of the Nevada debate last week or the South Carolina debate on Tuesday view Sanders as the most electable Democratic contender, while 25% chose former Vice President Joe Biden.
Just 15% said billionaire businessman Michael Bloomberg has the best chance of beating Trump.
“Of the top two candidates, those under age 50 were much more likely to say Sanders is the strongest candidate to face Trump, and Biden was considered best positioned by those over 50,” ABC Newsreported.
The poll was based on a survey of 639 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents between Feb. 26-27 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
After seeing either of the ninth and tenth debates, 34% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents said Bernie Sanders has the best chance of defeating the incumbent president, per new News/Ipsos poll.
ABC News Politics
