What The Latest National Polls Say
The latest national polls from Global Strategy Group, , show that Trumps approval ratings are in the negative on everything from the economy to the handling of the coronavirus pandemic.
Forty-seven per cent of respondents disapproved of his handling of the economy, 57 per cent disapproved of his handling of the pandemic and 54 per cent disapproved of how he handled the protests stemming from George Floyds death.
An Ipsos survey out of the U.S. , asked respondents, if the 2020 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for?
Thirty-eight per cent said Trump and 46.2 per cent said Biden. The age demographic that gave Trump the most support was aged 65 and over . Respondents aged 18-24 were more likely to favour Biden .
And the latest poll from The New York Times and Siena College shows Biden holding a nine-point lead over Trump.
Bidens campaign manager, Jen OMalley Dillon, recently warned supporters that despite the Democrats strong poll numbers, winning is still not set in stone.
There is still a long way to go in this campaign, on Oct. 14. We think this race is far closer than folks on this website think. Like a lot closer.
Why Polls Were Mostly Wrong
Princetons Sam Wang had to eat his words in 2016. He talks about the impacts of the pandemic and QAnon on public-opinion tallies in 2020
In the weeks leading up to the November 2016 election, polls across the country predicted an easy sweep for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. From Vanuatu to Timbuktu, everyone knows what happened. Media outlets and pollsters took the heat for failing to project a victory for Donald Trump. The polls were ultimately right about the popular vote. But they missed the mark in key swing states that tilted the Electoral College toward Trump.
This time, prognosticators made assurances that such mistakes were so 2016. But as votes were tabulated on November 3, nervous viewers and pollsters began to experience a sense of déjà vu. Once again, more ballots were ticking toward President Trump than the polls had projected. Though the voter surveys ultimately pointed in the wrong direction for only two statesNorth Carolina and Florida, both of which had signaled a win for Joe Bidenthey incorrectly gauged just how much of the overall vote would go to Trump in both red and blue states. In states where polls had favored Biden, the vote margin went to Trump by a median of 2.6 additional percentage points. And in Republican states, Trump did even better than the polls had indicatedby a whopping 6.4 points.
How did the polling errors for the 2020 election compare with those we saw in the 2016 contest?
Ability To Acquire A War Chest
Recent funding figures prove that DeSantis is catching up to Trump with regard to how much of a war chest he can accumulate.
It was revealed in April that DeSantis pulled in nearly $10.5 million in donations in yet another record breaking month for him.
DeSantis is now steadily approaching the $122 million war chest that the former president has managed to raise on a national level via his Super PACs in 2021.
DeSantis’ ability to raise more than $100 million in donations without campaigning on a national scale shows the governor is “in a new category” with regards to fundraising, according to former Florida Senate President Bill Galvano.
“I think it’s less about fundraising skill and more about the fact that he’s created this reality in Florida that everybody wants to be part of the freedom that he’s created,” Galvano told the Sarasota Herald-Tribune.
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Polls Stating To Move In Desantis’ Favor
While surveys have constantly named Trump as the overwhelming favorite to win the GOP nomination, with the Florida governor a distant second, DeSantis’ numbers have started to improve.
On Wednesday, a public opinion survey conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center revealed that DeSantis narrowly beat Trump in the statewide poll that 39 percent to 37 percent, albeit DeSantis’ margin was well within the survey’s sampling error of 5.5 percent.
The poll takes on added significance as DeSantis only received 19 and 18 percent support in the previous polls conducted in July and October 2021.
“Trump slipping in pre-primary polls is part of a typical pattern,” Director of the UNH Survey Center Andrew Smith said in a statement.
“A party’s losing candidate in the prior election is typically the best-known person in their party. As the primary gets closer, new candidates emerge and attract more media attention, and therefore more voter attention, than the losing candidate from the previous election.”
Desantis Already Indicating His Intention To Run
The governor’s name is starting to gain prominence within the GOP outside of Florida, and he has been seen in campaign events and fundraisers in Nebraska and South Carolina over recent months.
DeSantis also frequently implements himself, and the state of Florida as a whole, as key figures in a wide range of conservative talking points, whether it be the reaction to the coronavirus pandemic or the teaching of critical race theory in schools.
It has been noted that DeSantis appears to be trying to distance himself from Trump ahead of a potential 2024 presidential bid.
According to a recent Politico report, DeSantis will not be seeking a highly sought-after Trump endorsement as the Florida governor looks to win reelection in November’s midterm.
Republican figures have also noted that DeSantis may actually be the better candidate over Trump.
“DeSantis has a better shot, in my opinion,” Jim Dornan, a veteran GOP strategist who worked on Trump’s 2015 exploratory campaign committee, previously told Newsweek.
“Trump versus Biden would be a toss up-a total ‘hold your nose’ contest. DeSantis hasn’t p****d off as many people as Trump. He’s Trump without, mostly, the personality baggage.”
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Wapo: Ginni Thomas Made Personal Appeals To Overturn Biden’s Win
When I meet people and they find out I am a political reporter, they inevitably — and immediately — ask some version of this question: “Is he going to run again? And can he win?”
The Point: Trump is the least predictable politician, well, ever. Which means that you can never bank of anything with him — including another run for president. But, man does it look and sound like he is going to run again. And, yes, he can win.
Trump’s Advantages In 2016 Don’t Exist
During his first election campaign, Trump framed himself as the outsider wanting to “drain the swamp” and battle against several established Republican figures.
However, in 2024, Trump will be considered the establishment figure having already been in the White House, with no indication that there will be as many candidates willing to accept the daunting challenge of going up against the former president.
As noted by FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver: “It’s still something of an open question whether Trump would have won the GOP nomination in 2016 had the opposition not been so fragmented, so the fact that *one* clear alternative has already emerged for the next nomination, DeSantis, potentially makes 2024 a different story.”
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Simulating Two Versions Of Political Support Among The Public
To demonstrate the range of possible error in issue polling that could result from errors like those seen in 2020 election polling, we conducted a simulation that produced two versions of several of our opinion surveys from 2020, similar to the manipulation depicted in the hypothetical example shown above. One version included exactly the correct share of Trump vs. Biden voters we will call it the balanced version and a second version included too many Biden voters . Well call it the tilted version.
But nearly all of Pew Research Centers public opinion polling on issues is conducted among the general public and not just among voters. Nonvoters make up a sizable minority of general public survey samples. In our 2020 post-election survey, nonvoters were 37% of all respondents . Its entirely possible that the same forces that led polls to underrepresent Trump voters would lead to the underrepresentation of Republicans or conservatives among nonvoters. Thus, we need to produce two versions of the nonvoting public to go along with our two versions of the voters.
Donald Trump’s Chances Vs Joe Biden If He Runs Again In 2024
A number of bookmakers are naming Donald Trump as their favorite to win the 2024 presidential election if he runs, but several polls suggest it is still neck-and-neck between him and Joe Biden in a hypothetical match-up.
According to OddsChecker, which aggregates betting odds from numerous sources, Trump is the favorite to be the next president by several bookmakers including Paddy Power and Betfairwho are offering odds of 11/4as well as Bet365 and SkyBet .
In comparison, Paddy Power and Betfair are offering 9/2 odds on Biden winning the 2024 election, with Bet365 and SkyBet offering 5/1.
Trump has not formally announced that he intends on running for president again, but he has hinted at it from the moment he left the White House in January 2021.
The suggestion that Trump could beat Biden in a hypothetical 2024 match-up has been backed by a recent Emerson College poll conducted on May 24 and 25.
According to those taking part in the survey, 44 percent said they would vote for Trump in 2024, and 42 percent said they would back Biden if they were the two candidates.
The poll also shows that Biden’s approval rating remains low at 38 percent, down from 42 percent in an April survey.
The Emerson College poll reveals Biden’s job approval is lowest among white voters at 33 percent, and highest among Black voters at 61 percent.
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Elections: Will Donald Trump Run For President In 2024
Former President Donald Trump seems poised to announce his presidential campaign soon. He has repeatedly teased a 2024 presidential bid on several occasions. In March he was quoted saying The truth is: I ran twice, I won twice and I did much better the second time, insisting that he had won in 2020 And now we just may have to do it again.. In another interaction with the media, he mentioned that he was very close to making a decision on another campaign.
No American President since 1892, has returned to the White House after losing reelection, however, Trump has plenty of reasons to believe otherwise:
Former President Remains Dominant Over Presumed 2024 Gop Field
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The 45th president, who faces widespread blame for spreading false claims about the last presidential election that led to a riot at the US Capitol, slightly leads Joe Biden in a Harvard CAPS/Harris poll published on Monday. Mr Trump would have the support of 47 per cent of voters while 41 per cent would back Mr Biden. The gap between the two was well within the 12-point margin that represents the current share of undecided voters.
Against Mr Bidens vice president, Kamala Harris, Mr Trump fares even better in a survey gauging that potential matchup. Ms Harris was only supported by 38 per cent of respondents, while Mr Trump had the support of 49 per cent.
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Limitations Of This Analysis
One strength of this analysis is that the election is over, and its not necessary to guess at what Trump support ought to have been in these surveys. And by using respondents self-reported vote choice measured after the election, we avoid complications from respondents who may have changed their minds between taking the survey and casting their ballot.
However, this study is not without its limitations. Its based on polls conducted by only one organization, Pew Research Center, and these polls are national in scope, unlike many election polls that focused on individual states. The underlying mechanism that weakens the association between levels of candidate support and opinions on issues should apply to polls conducted by any organization at any level of geography, but we examined it using only our surveys.
Another important assumption is that the Trump voters and Biden voters who agreed to be interviewed are representative of Trump voters and Biden voters nationwide with respect to their opinions on issues. We cannot know that for sure.
How Trump Could Still Win
Polls failed to predict the 2016 election
Predicting the outcome of a presidential election can be difficult as you dont know who will actually show up to cast a ballot, who will change their mind last minute and who lied to pollsters.
For example, in examining what went wrong with the 2016 polls, Pew Research Center looked at a variety of reasons, including that some respondents may not be honest when answering polls, the nonpartisan think tank stated.
Some have also suggested that many of those who were polled simply were not honest about whom they intended to vote for, Pew Research Center stated. The idea of so-called shy Trumpers suggests that support for Trump was socially undesirable, and that his supporters were unwilling to admit their support to pollsters.
However, Pew Research said this theory might account for a small amount of the error in 2016 polls, but it was not among the main reasons.
Simon Palamar, a research fellow at Centre for International Governance Innovation, told Global News in 2016 that because many polls are still conducted over the phone, they can be skewed by voters who dont want to talk with pollsters.
Lets say you believe the polls are rigged and you like Trump you might consciously and deliberately decide not to respond to pollsters, Palamar said. That will systematically omit a certain type of person from the poll.
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