If Either Runs All Other Democrats Face Steep Climb For Nomination
ANALYSIS More than a handful of Republicans are already sniffing around the 2024 presidential contest.
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, Florida Sen. Rick Scott and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo are just some of the Republicans who might launch White House bids if former President Donald Trump doesnt seek a second term. And some of them might take the plunge even if Trump does seek the nomination again in two years.
The Democrats, of course, have a very different situation. President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris are incumbents, so the party doesnt have a long list of hopefuls for 2024.
Given Bidens age and his current standing in the polls, as well as Harris mixed reviews, thats not an ideal situation for Democrats.
First, lets deal with the obvious. If Biden wants his partys nomination in 2024, its probably his for the asking. Sitting presidents normally arent denied renomination.
The last serious challenge to a sitting presidents renomination came in 1980, when Massachusetts Sen. Ted Kennedy challenged incumbent Democratic President Jimmy Carter. Kennedy won a dozen primaries, including those in Pennsylvania, New York and California, but Carter piled up delegates in Southern primaries and early caucus states, winning renomination comfortably.
Trump: Maybe This Is A Good Time To Tell People Im Running Again
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Some Republicans fear Trump announcing a 2024 bid before Novembers midterms could distract from GOP messaging and give Democrats the opportunity to turn 2022 into a referendum on the former president, both the Times and CBS report. Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel urged Trump to wait until after the midterms but has recently resigned herself to the idea that he will not, according to the Times. Meanwhile, Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina is reportedly among those advocating for an early Trump announcement.
Rep. Liz Cheney, the vice chairwoman of the Jan. 6 committee and one of few Republicans vocal about the partys need to get rid of Trump, is also leaving the door open for a potential presidential run. I havent made a decision about that yet, Cheney told ABC News on Sunday when asked if shes considering running for president. Right now, Cheney said, she is focused on her reelection in Wyoming and working on the Jan. 6 committee. Ill make a decision about 24 down the road. But I think about it less in terms of a decision about running for office and more in terms of, you know, as an American and as somebody who’s in a position of public trust now, she told ABCs Jon Karl.
The Five Republicans Who Could Challenge Trump In 2024
Former President Trump has hinted repeatedly that hes weighing another bid for the White House in 2024.
And while hes made clear that, if he does so, the nomination should be his for the taking, he could still face some competition. A number of Republicans have begun maneuvering toward presidential campaigns of their own, some more overtly than others.
Of course, theres a political risk that comes with challenging Trump. But that doesnt appear to be deterring some prospective candidates.
Here are the five Republicans who could challenge Trump for the partys 2024 presidential nod.
Ron DeSantis
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has brushed off suggestions that he will mount a presidential campaign in 2024, saying that his No. 1 priority is winning a second term in the governors mansion.
But he also hasnt explicitly ruled out the possibility, and unlike several other prospective GOP presidential contenders, he hasnt committed to forgoing a White House bid if Trump launches a comeback campaign.
And with his clout among Republicans on the rise, its possible that, if DeSantis ultimately decides to run in 2024, he may not be deterred by the former president.
Early polling shows him as the heavy favorite for the Republican presidential nomination if Trump doesnt run again. There are even a few recent surveys that show him topping Trump in a hypothetical primary match-up.
Mike Pence
Mike Pompeo
Larry Hogan
Ted Cruz
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Keeping Confederates From Office
The drafters of the 14th Amendment wanted to keep former officials who joined the Confederacy from resuming public service, without an explicit vote from Congress restoring their eligibility. Section 3 was enforced for several years at both the state and federal level, according to Gerard Magliocca, a professor at the Indiana University Robert H. McKinney School of Law. But in 1872, by a two-thirds vote of the House and Senate, Congress lifted the prohibition against most who had been barred from office.
Since then, it’s fair to say, the provision has fallen into disuse. “Nobody talks about it really,” said Laura F. Edwards, a professor of legal history at Princeton who has studied the 14th Amendment. “You haven’t had to talk about it since the Civil War.”
Pence Edges Up The List As He Places A Big Bet Against Trump In Georgia
Its Trump vs. Pence in the Georgia gubernatorial primary on Tuesday sort of after Pence made the intriguing decision to come in late for a candidate Trump hates: Gov. Brian Kemp .
Its possible to oversell the significance of this Mike Pence has backed establishment-oriented GOP candidates like Kemp before. But Pence had to know this would be provocative to Trump, and decided to do it anyway, even opting to make a public appearance for Kemp on the eve of the primary.
It now looks like itll pan out quite nicely. Kemp led former senator David Perdue 60 percent to 32 percent in a recent Fox News poll, further cementing him as the odds-on favorite. His win wouldnt necessarily affirm Pences political stock Kemp was already showing double-digit leads but it would be a nice boost for Pence and his presidential aspirations.
And its merely the latest example of Pence carving out some calculated distance from former president Donald Trump. And hes navigated the potential pitfalls relatively well: Though Trump has criticized the former vice president for not helping him overturn the 2020 election, it hasnt amounted to the kind of sustained campaign he often launches against his apostates.
What happens if a narrative takes hold after May 24 that Pence beat Trump in a proxy battle ? Trumps reaction would say plenty about his 2024 intentions and Pences gamble.
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Former Trump Aide To Run Primary Challenge Against Kinzinger
Representative Adam Kinzinger will face a primary challenge from a former Trump administration aide as the pro-Trump faction of the GOP looks to oust Republicans, such as Kinzinger, who voted in support of the former presidents second impeachment.
Catalina Lauf, who served in the Department of Commerce under the Trump administration, launched a bid Thursday to oust Kinzinger from his seat in the 16th congressional district of Illinois.
I never thought Id primary a fellow Republican, but is Congressman Kinzinger really a Republican anymore? He isnt and we have the proof, the 27-year-old challenger said in a campaign announcement video.
Lauf said her 42-year-old opponent is a weak-kneed, establishment Republican who cares more about his next MSNBC appearance than the voters who elected him.
She claimed Kinzinger does not support the America First movement, noting his one in three votes in Congress that have sided with House speaker Nancy Pelosi
Instead of being in our fight, Adam betrayed his constituents for a life in the D.C. swamp, said Lauf, who branded herself the anti-AOC.
She blasts her Fake Republican opponent for backing the phony impeachment hoax for a president who has already left office.
He said impeachment was necessary to save America. What? Lauf said. You know what I think is necessary to save America, Adam? Setting term limits for people like you and the rest of your friends out. Six terms in Congress is enough.
Just Call Trump A Loser
His record is clear. Some nervy Republican challenger should say so.
Lets assume Donald Trump runs again for president in 2024. Yes, I know, caveats, caveats. Republicans say its too early to discuss 24. A lot can change between now and then. Maybe Trump wont actually run. Maybe hes just teasing the possibility to milk the attention. Apparently, he likes attention.
But if Trump does decide to inflict himself on another race, he will enter as the clear Republican favorite, enjoying a presumption of invincibility inside the GOP. This has engendered a belief that anyone who challenges Trump must tread lightly, or end up like the roadkill that his primary opponents became in 2016.
That notion is outdated.
Trumps bizarre and enduring hold over his party has made it verboten for many Republicans to even utter publicly the unpleasant fact of his defeatsomething they will readily acknowledge in private. I caught up recently with several Trump-opposing Republican strategists and former associates of the president who argued this restraint should end. The best way for a Republican to depose Trump in 2024, they said, will be to call Trump a loser, as early and as brutally as possibleand keep pointing out the absurdity of treating a one-term, twice-impeached, 75-year-old former president like a kingmaker and heir apparent. In other words, dont worry about hurting Special Boys feelings.
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Roque Rocky De La Fuente
An entrepreneur and businessman whos had a career in car sales, banking, and real estate development, Roque De La Fuente, known as Rocky, is accustomed to running for public office. in 2016, he sought the Democratic party nomination, then ran as Reform Party and self-funded American Delta Party candidate in the same election, coming in eight in the popular vote. In 2018, he sought the nomination in nine senate raceswinning none. In May 2019, De La Fuente announced his candidacy to challenge Trump in the 2020 election.
De La Fuentes name is on the ballot in a dozen states, and he owns businesses and property in several of them. His program reflects the candidate bipartisan inclination. De La Fuente talks about gun control, immigration reform that unites families, not divides them, promises to match immigrants with job shortage, and supports environmental protection and investment in renewable energy.
Age: 65 Years in political office: 0
Who gives him money: Himself.
Biggest idea for the economy: Match immigrants with job shortages, invest in renewable energy to create new jobs.
Social media following: 65,400, : 241,000.
Who will like this candidate: Moderate Republicans, conservative independents.
Who will hate this candidate: Trump supporters.
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Which brings us back to the question: With all these investigations hanging over his head, will Donald Trump ever be charged with a crime?
We know this: For a former U.S. president to be convicted of a crime, the prosecutor’s case must be substantial, the evidence overwhelming and the jury unbiased. The most likely scenario is that the Trump Organization will be criminally charged with a financial crime . And if the New York prosecutors have enough documentary and testimonial evidence that Donald Trump knew about those financial crimes, they would be likely to bring charges against the former president, as well.
That’s a high hurdle for them to clear. But if they don’t make it, it won’t be for lack of trying.
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Former Secretary Of State Mike Pompeo
Mike Pompeo served as Trump’s secretary of state. The former congressman from Kansas has set up a political action committee “Champion American Values” to help conservative candidates in 2022 and beyond.
Next year’s elections are his focus, Pompeo told radio station KCCI during a September visit to Iowa, and then “we’ll turn our attention to the next election after that.”
Like other quasi-candidates, however, Pompeo has been meeting with donors and talking like a candidate.
As far back as March, when Fox News host Sean Hannity asked if he would run for president if Trump didn’t, Pompeo said: “I’m always up for a good fight … I care deeply about the American conservative movement for an awfully long time now. I aim to keep at it.”
New York Primary Results
- See also: Republican National Convention, 2016 and 2016 presidential nominations: calendar and delegate rules
New York had 95 delegates at the 2016 Republican National Convention. Of this total, 81 were district-level delegates . New York’s district delegates were allocated on a proportional basis a candidate had to win at least 20 percent of the vote in a district in order to be eligible to receive a share of that district’s delegates. The first place finisher in a district received two of that district’s delegates and the second place finisher received one delegate. If a candidate won more than 50 percent of the vote in a district, he or she received all of that district’s delegates.
Of the remaining 14 delegates, 11 served at large. At-large delegates were allocated on a proportional basis a candidate had to win at least 20 percent of the statewide vote in order to be eligible to receive a share of the state’s at-large delegates. If a candidate won more than 50 percent of the statewide vote, he or she received all of the state’s at-large delegates. In addition, three national party leaders served as bound delegates to the Republican National Convention.
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Meeting With Russian Lawyer
On June 9, 2016, Trump Jr., campaign chairman Paul Manafort, and Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner held a meeting with Kremlin-connected lawyer Natalia Veselnitskaya, who promised Trump Jr. that she had damaging information about Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton. According to The New York Times, Trump Jr. initially said the meeting was about adoptions of Russian children. He later issued a statement saying, “After pleasantries were exchanged the woman stated that she had information that individuals connected to Russia were funding the Democratic National Committee and supporting Mrs. Clinton. Her statements were vague, ambiguous and made no sense. No details or supporting information was provided or even offered. It quickly became clear that she had no meaningful information.”
Donald Trumps Bid To Reshape Gop Faces Biggest Hurdles In Georgia
Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp speaks during a Get Out the Vote Rally, on May 23, 2022, in Kennesaw, Ga.
ATLANTA Donald Trump hopes to avoid a stinging defeat in the Georgia governors race on Tuesday as Republican primary voters decide the fate of the former presidents hand-picked candidate to lead one of the most competitive political battlegrounds in the U.S.
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