Democrats Reasons For A Different Candidate
Whats the most important reason you would prefer someone other than Joe Biden to be the Democratic Partys 2024 presidential nominee?
Asked of 191 respondents who said they planned to vote in the 2024 Democratic primary and who preferred a candidate other than Joe Biden in a New York Times/Siena College poll from July 5-7, 2022.
Jobs and the economy were the most important problem facing the country according to 20 percent of voters, with inflation and the cost of living close behind as prices are rising at the fastest rate in a generation. One in 10 voters named the state of American democracy and political division as the most pressing issue, about the same share who named gun policies, after several high-profile mass shootings.
More than 75 percent of voters in the poll said the economy was extremely important to them. And yet only 1 percent rated economic conditions as excellent. Among those who are typically working age voters 18 to 64 years old only 6 percent said the economy was good or excellent, while 93 percent rated it poor or only fair.
The White House has tried to trumpet strong job growth, including on Friday when Mr. Biden declared that he had overseen the fastest and strongest jobs recovery in American history. But the Times/Siena poll showed a vast disconnect between those boasts, and the strength of some economic indicators, and the financial reality that most Americans feel they are confronting.
Does Joe Biden Have The Best Chance Of Beating President Trump In 2020
In this combination of file photos, former Vice President Joe Biden speaks in Collier, Pa., on March 6, 2018, and President Donald Trump speaks in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington on March 20, 2018. Biden has formally joined the crowded Democratic presidential primary race with a goal to unseat Trump.
Associated Press
In this April 11, 2019, file photo, former Vice President Joe Biden takes part in a forum on the opioid epidemic at the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia. Biden has formally joined the crowded Democratic presidential primary race, declaring the soul of the nation at stake if President Donald Trump wins re-election. In a video posted on Twitter on Thursday, Biden focused on the 2017 deadly clash between white supremacists and counter protesters in Charlottesville, Virginia, noting Trump said there were very fine people on both sides of the violent encounter.
Matt Rourke
In this March 6, 2018, file photo, former Vice President Joe Biden speaks at a rally in support of Conor Lamb, the Democratic candidate for the March 13 special election in Pennsylvanias 18th Congressional District in Collier, Pa. Biden has formally joined the crowded Democratic presidential primary race.
Gene J. Puskar, Associated Press
SALT LAKE CITY Just hours after Joe Biden posted a video announcing his 2020 bid for the White House Thursday, President Donald Trump took to Twitter.
Matt Rourke
Trump denied the characterization.
Does Joe Biden Even Have A Chance Against President Trump In These Swing States
October 27, 2020 By Richard C. Young
President Donald J. Trump displays his signature after signing a presidential order extending the moratorium on offshore drilling on Floridas Gulf and Atlantic Coast, and also the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina Tuesday, Sept. 8, 2020, at the Jupiter Inlet Lighthouse and Museum in Jupiter, Fla., on the Environmental Accomplishments for the People of Florida.
In The American Spectator, Robert Stacy McCain casts doubt on the idea that Joe Biden will be able to edge out the President in a number of swing states. He writes :
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Bidens Best Hope For 2024 Might Be Donald Trump
President Biden sees himself as the Democrat with the best chance of beating former President Trump.
The president is suffering from anemic approval ratings, with a recent poll showing a majority of Democrats dont want him to be the partys nominee in 2024.
Hes facing record high inflation, a turbulent political and media environment, and deep frustration within his party over its inability to protect abortion rights and take action on climate change.
Its no wonder many are beginning to look for alternatives in two years as Democrats face the prospect of a tough midterm election in which they could lose the House and Senate majorities.
Yet the same New York Times-Siena College poll that had terrible news for Biden also showed he would still beat Trump in a head-to-head match-up 44 percent to 40 percent if the next presidential election were held today.
Its pretty clear that the strongest argument for Biden 2024 is a Biden vs. Trump rematch, said Democratic strategist Joel Payne.
In the Times poll, Bidens approval rating hit a low of 33 percent, and it showed a majority of Democrats want someone other than him to run in 2024.
Yet one top Democratic donor said the poll showing Biden beating Trump, who could announce a new run for the White House any day, is giving the president some life at a time when he really needs it.
Given Bidens political problems, the 2024 scenario is setting itself up as quite the conundrum for Democrats.
Con: Biden Should Stand Down And Support The Best Woman In The Race
BALTIMORE For the first time since the four-term reign of President Franklin Roosevelt, Democrats have a chance to pick a real progressive and could well make history by nominating a woman.
Now a moderate like Joe Biden is close to entering the Democrats already crowded field, but his policies smack more of the moderation of Barack Obama, the man he served as vice president for eight years. At this point, the nation needs the progressive promises of free health care and higher education, not the same old, same old.
Biden has done well with women voters over the years and likely would do well again next year with moderate women who voted for him and Obama in 2008 and 2012.
As president, such a woman would not shy away from raising tax rates on wealthy individuals and corporations or repairing the damage done the country by four years of Donald J. Trump.
The value of having multiple women candidates is that they force us to think about women candidates in a way that is not monolithic, noted Kelly Dittmar, a scholar at the Center for American Women and Politics.
The women already running for president may soon be joined by others. Popular talk-show host Oprah Winfrey has been mentioned repeatedly over the last few weeks, but significantly has never issued the Shermanesque oath named for the Union Civil War General William Tecumseh Sherman. When his name was mentioned as a GOP candidate, he declined saying: I will not accept if nominated and will not serve if elected.
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Nationwide polling and survey data leading up to Election Day has provided consistently optimistic news for Joe Biden but one of the top campaign analysts in the country said Donald Trump still has a path to victory in his bid for re-election.
Nate Silver, founder of the election polling site FiveThiryEight, said the president has about a 10 percent chance of winning, and that his victory would come down to Pennsylvania one of the most crucial battleground states in the 2020 election during an interview with ABCs This Week.
Speaking on the Sunday before the election, Mr Silver compared recent polls in Pennsylvania to others that showed Mr Biden with a stronger lead: Pennsylvania has not bumped up to a 7- or 8-point Biden lead like we see in Michigan and Wisconsin. It’s 5 points. It’s not a big early voting state, so a lot of votes have not yet been cast in Pennsylvania.
Among the votes that were sent in by mail, there are some provisions about a naked ballot, a security envelope. That could make things more complicated. You could have the courts involved, he added. You have some protests, looting in Philadelphia. There’s lots of stuff going on.”
Should Mr Trump win in Pennsylvania, Mr Biden would then become the underdog, according to Mr Silver, who suggested the former vice president would then need to pick up another state the president won in 2016, like Arizona or North Carolina.
Biden And Trump Have Similar Strengths
Biden and Trump are similar in age Trump is 72, Biden in 76. Both have appealed to voters with a raw, unscripted approach to politics, according to Politico.
Both have proven their ability to appeal to blue-collar voters without a college education. These Americans were once staunch Democrats, but have increasingly migrated to the Republican Party.
In comparison with other candidates in the Democratic field, Biden is also uniquely capable of competing with Trump in the Rust Belt states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania that helped Trump win in 2016.
At the same time, Biden represents “a vestige of the Obama administration,” according to Politico, which Trump has focused on as he compares his own presidency to that of his predecessor.
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Bidens Absence And Trumps Presence
Begin with the seats the parties hold now. Only seven House Democrats won districts Trump carried in 2020. Democrats arent defending many of the crossover seats that led to huge losses in 2010 and 1994. On the flip side, the Senate map is pretty good for Democrats, with Republicans defending more seats.
Then, of course, theres the Dobbs decision, which led to a surge in Democratic interest and of young women registering to vote. Every candidate and strategist and analyst Ive talked to, on both sides of the aisle, believes Dobbs reshaped this election. The question theyre mulling is whether that energy is fading as the months drag by and the election draws close.
But theres something else distorting this race, too: Bidens relative absence and Trumps unusual presence.
Heres an odd fact: Trump has led Biden in Google searches since July. During the same stretch in 2018, Trump was far ahead of Obama in search interest, and during this period in 2010, Obama was ahead of Bush. Thats the normal way of things: Midterms are a referendum on the incumbent. The ousted or retired predecessor is rarely much of a factor. But this midterm is different.
Trump pushed J.D. Vance in Ohio and Herschel Walker in Georgia and Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania all of whom are underperforming in their respective matchups.
Frustrated Voters In A Volatile World
While Tennessee voters are largely unhappy with the nations leadership, Gov. Bill Lee remains popular with constituents, though his approval rating did drop slightly. Lee earned a 56 percent approval from those polled, down from last years level of support but similar to results from December 2021. When breaking down attitudes by party, 80 percent of Republicans said theyd reelect Lee, compared with only 7 percent of Democrats.
Tennesseans also see a U.S. economy increasingly in trouble. Only 27 percent believe the U.S. economy is in good shape, down significantly from 47 percent of those polled last year who said the economy was very good or fairly good.
Tennesseans offer a more favorable assessment, though, of the states economy, with 64 percent responding the economy is very good or fairly good right now.
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Can We Expect Anything Other Than Biden Vs Trump In 2024
A FiveThirtyEight Chat
Welcome to FiveThirtyEights politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited.
sarah : We know the 2022 midterm elections havent happened yet, but this summer has seen an unusual amount of activity on the 2024 front.
Namely, many Americans, including Democrats, are really down on the idea of President Biden seeking a second term, while former President Donald Trump continues to dominate the news cycle. A sizable portion of Americans say they dont want Biden or Trump to have a second term, but is there, uh a path for anyone who isnt Trump or Biden in 2024?
Lets tackle this chat in two parts:
OK, first up. Is there a Democrat who can take on Biden?
alex : I dont think so, Sarah, especially if Trump is the nominee. If Trump announces that hes running for a second term, I think: 1) Biden will run again, and 2) there wont be a damaging primary to take him down.
What Democrat is going to take Biden on against Trump? Democrats will coalesce around the nominee who can beat Trump, and Biden has already proved that he can.
alex: Right, Nathaniel. I just dont see notable Democrats wanting to participate in a messy, protracted primary against the sitting president. It would be a terrible look for the party.
nrakich: Yes!
Favorites To Win The 2024 Us Presidential Election
Shortly after the inauguration, Vice President Kamala Harris was atop the presidential odds board at +350, with Biden close behind at +400, and Trump in third place at +650.
Those odds have shifted massively, and Trump is now tied with DeSantis for the lead as 2024 U.S. presidential election favorite at +300 . Biden has now dropped to third place at +600 , while Harris has plummeted all the way to fourth place at +1,400 .
Other presidential betting favorites for 2024 include governor of California Gavin Newsom Trump’s VP Mike Pence , and former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley and Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, who are tied at +2,500 .
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Abortion A Contentious Issue
Abortion is at the forefront of national conversation as a draft Supreme Court opinionwas leaked that suggests the conservative majority may overturn a court case that ruled that people have a constitutional right to obtain an abortion.
The draft majority opinion, written by conservativeJustice Samuel Alito, attacks the landmark 1973Roe v. Wade decisionas incorrectly decided. A final opinion is expected to be published in late June.
Among Tennesseans surveyed, 48 percent identified as pro-choice, and 50 percent identified as pro-life. Overall, 36 percent of respondents said abortion should be legal in all cases. Seventy percent of Democrats polled favored abortion being legal, while only 8 percent of Republicans prefer pro-choice legislation.
Overall, while there is a strong partisan divide on this issue, only a minority of Tennesseans, including Republicans, want to make all abortion illegal. There is strong support for having abortion be either completely legal or legal under some conditions, such as in cases of rape and incest and when the health of the mother is at stake.
Voters On The Direction Of The Country
Do you think the United States is on the right track, or is it headed in the wrong direction?
Note: Polls prior to 2020 are Times/CBS surveys of U.S. adults, with the wording Do you feel things in this country are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track?Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 849 registered voters in the United States from July 5-7, 2022.
For Mr. Biden, that bleak national outlook has pushed his job approval rating to a perilously low point. Republican opposition is predictably overwhelming, but more than two-thirds of independents also now disapprove of the presidents performance, and nearly half disapprove strongly. Among fellow Democrats his approval rating stands at 70 percent, a relatively low figure for a president, especially heading into the 2022 midterms when Mr. Biden needs to rally Democrats to the polls to maintain control of Congress.
In a sign of deep vulnerability and of unease among what is supposed to be his political base, only 26 percent of Democratic voters said the party should renominate him in 2024.
Mr. Biden has said repeatedly that he intends to run for re-election in 2024. At 79, he is already the oldest president in American history, and concerns about his age ranked at the top of the list for Democratic voters who want the party to find an alternative.
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Biden And Trump Seem Set For 2024 Rematch
As one pollster put it, “Voters in general are looking for change.”
Joe Biden and Donald Trump have been headed for another face-off since the day Trump lost to Biden in 2020 — but voters say they are upset with the direction of the country and just as ambivalent about having either Biden or Trump lead their political parties in two years, adding an unusual level of uncertainty to what could be an historic 2024 contest.
A New York Times/Siena College poll earlier this month showed abysmal numbers for both leaders: Biden’s job approval scraped 33%, a new nadir, and 64% of Democrats surveyed said they wanted a different nominee in 2024. Meanwhile, 51% of Republicans said they wanted someone other than Trump to be their standard-bearer in the next presidential election — and despite Biden’s unsteady footing, Trump still narrowly trailed him in a hypothetical head-to-head.
Such stark numbers only supercharged speculation, among politicos, over whether either of the two will be on the ballot come 2024. How unusual would it for them to run against one another again? If not them, then who? And what can change between now and then?
“When you have such a sour, negative political environment, voters in general are looking for change,” said GOP pollster Robert Blizzard. “They’re looking for new voices, new people.”
Phillips, the donor, sees it another way.
Still, Trump hasn’t seemed to reap many benefits from the drop in Biden’s support.
