Midterm Roundup: Border Politics
Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., encouraged Biden not to end the order known as Title 42 thats prevented immigrants from crossing the U.S.-Mexico border during the pandemic, amid fears that rescinding the authority would cause a surge of migrants at the southern border. Kelly and Sen. Krysten Sinema, D-Ariz., stressed that the Department of Homeland Security doesnt appear to have a plan to maintain a humane and orderly process at the border.
A surge of migrants could create yet another headache for Biden, but also for senators like Kelly, who are top GOP targets. Republicans have long been hammering Kelly and other vulnerable Democrats on immigration, and a surge of migrants could provide another opening for GOP attacks.
New York redistricting: A state judge struck down New Yorks congressional and state legislative maps as unconstitutional gerrymanders, giving legislators until April 11 to draw new district lines.
Georgia Senate: Two super PACs backing GOP Senate candidates Gary Black and Latham Saddler are planning seven-figure ad buys attacking Republican frontrunner Herschel Walker ahead of the May 24 primary, in an attempt to force Walker into a primary runoff, Politico reports.
Florida Governor: Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Frieds campaign is signaling that she plans to question Rep. Charlie Crists past relationship with Trump in the Democratic primary for governor, NBCs Marc Caputo reports.
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This lack of crossover support for presidents in their first term in office points toward one of the most animating forces in American politics today: Increased disdain and hatred of ones political opponents, known as negative partisanship. As the chart below shows, opinions about the other party have become far more unfavorable since the late 1970s. In other words, its not that surprising that Americans are far less likely to approve of and more likely to intensely dislike presidents from the other party right from the moment they take office.
Such hostile sentiments reflect a world in which each major party increasingly believes the other poses a threat to the countrys well-being. Consider that in 2019, the Pew Research Center found that about three-fourths of Americans thought that Democrats and Republicans not only disagreed over plans and policies, but that they also couldnt agree on basic facts. This is certainly borne out in attitudes toward the economy: Democrats thought the economy was immediately doing worse once Trump took office, while Republicans immediately thought it was getting worse after Biden won the 2020 election. And in the lead-up to the 2020 contest, Pew also found that about 9 in 10 of both Biden and Trump supporters felt that the victory of the other partys presidential nominee would lead to lasting harm, a sign of how each side increasingly finds the other to be an unacceptable political alternative.
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Approval Ratings By State
Approval ratings vary greatly by state and can indicate how a state will vote in the upcoming 2020 Presidential Election. Since his inauguration in January 2017, President Trumps net approval has decreased in every state. President Trumps approval rating is decreasing in important states that he won in his 2016 election, including swing states and states that are consistently Republican in every election. The three key states Trump had in his 2016 election are Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, all of which currently have approval ratings under 50%.
Below are each states approval ratings for President Trump as of February 2020. Data is from a poll by the Morning Consult.
- Net approval since Trump took office has decreased by 22 percentage points
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Trump Approval Ratings Still Strong In Key Battleground States: Poll
Former President Trump remains overwhelmingly popular among Republican voters in key battleground states heading into the midterm election cycle, according to a new roundup of polls released Monday.
Nearly 4 in 5 Republican voters surveyed in Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania rated Trump favorably, according to Morning Consult surveys conducted in March.
The former president had slightly higher favorability in Georgia and North Carolina than he did in Ohio and Pennsylvania .
Each of those states have important Senate races that Trump has waded into or where he is considering endorsing a GOP candidate.
Morning Consult surveyed at least 855 registered Republican voters in each state from March 1-20. The margin of error for each poll is about 3.7 percentage points.
The polls suggest that Trump-backed candidates in those states could greatly benefit from the former presidents support, even as some of his recent endorsements have fallen flat. But it remains to be seen to what extent approval of Trump will transfer to his picks.
Trumps popularity in the four states has remained virtually unchanged since he left office, Morning Consult found.
In North Carolina, Trump has endorsed Rep. Ted Budd for the Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Richard Burr , who is retiring. In Pennsylvania, Trump recently endorsed former television host Mehmet Oz to replace retiring Sen. Pat Toomey
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WASHINGTON On the day of George Floyds funeral in Houston and as coronavirus cases continue to rise, several states are holding primaries to determine which candidates will represent their parties come November.
Here are the races the NBC News political unit are paying closest attention to:
Georgia Senate: The top primary contest to watch is in Georgia, where several Democrats are running for the right to challenge Sen. David Perdue, R-Ga., in the fall.
The favorite in this Democratic primary is 2017 congressional nominee, Jon Ossoff, and his top challengers are former Columbus Mayor Teresa Tomlinson and businesswoman Sarah Riggs Amico. The Cook Political Report lists the race as Lean Republican for November.
If none of the candidates break 50 percent, the Top 2 will advance to an Aug. 11 runoff.
South Carolina Senate: Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., and Democrat Jaime Harrison receive nominal primary opposition ahead of their expected November showdown in the Palmetto State. Harrison has raked in significant fundraising ahead of todays contest.
Nevada 3rd District: Republicans will pick their nominee in Nevada to face Democratic Congresswoman Susie Lee, D-Nev., in the competitive Nevada district.
Nevada 4th District: Also in Nevada, incumbent Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford, who recently admitted to having an affair with a former Senate staffer, is receiving a primary challenge from multiple Democrats, as well as Republicans who are trying to reclaim the seat.
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Trump Does Especially Well With Vaccine
The poll results show Trump does especially well among people who have not been vaccinated and do not intend to be vaccinated, Selzer said.
He is viewed favorably by 86% of Iowans who say they are not vaccinated and do not plan to become vaccinated.
Thats on par with Reynolds, who also is viewed favorably by 86% of vaccine-resistant Iowans. But far fewer vaccine-resistant Iowans view the states two Republican senators favorably. Sixty percent of those who are not vaccinated and do not plan to become vaccinated view Grassley favorably, and 67% view U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst favorably.
Trump has been vaccinated, but he did so in private and he said in a September interview with the Wall Street Journal that he is unlikely to get the booster shot authorized by the Food and Drug Administration for those 65 and older and for people with weakened immune systems.
He has publicly touted the aggressive timeline during which the vaccines were developed while he was in office. But at an August rally in Alabama, he was briefly booed for urging his supporters to get the shot.
You got to do what you have to do, but I recommend: Take the vaccines, he said at the rally. I did it its good.
Reynolds, Grassley and Ernst all have been vaccinated against COVID-19 and have publicly recommended that others do the same. But they and Trump have all drawn a firm line when it comes to any kind of vaccine mandate.
Trump Viewed Favorably By More In Iowa Gop Than Chuck Grassley
Trump has always been a polarizing figure in the state the percentage of all Iowans who viewed him favorably topped 50% only once before in polls dating to January 2018. That was in March 2020, just as the coronavirus pandemic began to surge in the U.S.
But he has maintained popularity among Iowa Republicans throughout his time in office, and the vast majority continue to view him favorably.
According to the Registers Iowa Poll, 91% of Iowa Republicans have a favorable view of him and just 7% view him unfavorably. Another 2% are not sure.
Those marks put Trump in league with Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds, who is viewed favorably by 90% of Iowa Republicans. And it surpasses Republican U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley, who is viewed favorably by 81% of Iowans.
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I did not foresee the day when Donald Trump would be 10 points more popular with Iowa Republicans than the venerable Chuck Grassley, said pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co.
That Republican goodwill contrasts with Democrats feelings for Trump, 99% of whom view him unfavorably. Just 1% view him favorably.
Independent Iowans are nearly evenly split, with 48% viewing him favorably and 49% viewing him unfavorably. Another 3% are unsure.
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Us President Is Being Forced To Deal With Some Of The Same Dynamics As His Predecessor
Former US president Donald Trump has overtaken his successor Joe Biden in favourability ratings among American voters in what has been described as a remarkable turnaround.
The Times reported that, just eight months after the transfer of power, Trump has a positive rating of 48% compared with Bidens 46% in a Harvard-Harris poll. Back in February, Biden had a 56% positive rating compared with Trumps 43%.
The team that surrounded Trump during his reign also fared better than Bidens circle. Some 55% of respondents said that Mike Pence was a better vice president than his successor, Kamala Harris, and 63% believed that Mike Pompeo was a better secretary of state than Antony Blinken.
A number of other surveys have discovered the same trend, with a poll in the bellwether state of Iowa putting Bidens approval rating at just 31%, down from 43% in June.
Meanwhile, after Biden dropped to a new low of 43% approval in the monthly Gallup survey, down six points from August and 14 since his inauguration in January, the pollster pointed out that among elected presidents since World War Two, only Trump has had a lower job approval rating than Biden does at a similar point in their presidencies.
Confidence In Biden On Key Issues Facing The Country
Confidence in Biden to handle several major issues facing the country also has declined substantially since last year. Today, fewer than half of Americans say they are confident in Biden to handle each of the eight issues asked about in the survey, including two previous areas of strength for Biden his ability to handle the coronavirus outbreak and the economy.
Just over four-in-ten say they are very or somewhat confident in Biden to deal with the public health impact of the coronavirus , make good decisions about economic policy and handle an international crisis .
Comparable shares express confidence in him to handle law enforcement and criminal justice, work effectively with Congress, make wise decisions about immigration policy and deal effectively with China.
Early in his presidency, Biden drew less confidence for his ability to unite the country than to handle major issues. That remains the case today: 30% of Americans are confident in him to bring the country closer together, while more than twice as many have little or no confidence in him to do this.
Confidence in Biden on several issues has fallen over the past year, but the decline has been particularly notable when it comes to his ability to handle the public health impact of the coronavirus.
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Polls Put Trumps Approval Rating Lower
Despite the recent decline in Biden’s approval, Trump’s ratings were lower during his time in office.
“Biden’s approval rating has clearly taken a turn for the worse in the past several weeks, but he is still faring better than Trump at this point in their presidencies,” Burden said. “Trump had one of the lowest and steadiest approval ratings of any modern president.”
FiveThirtyEight put the polling average for Trump’s approval rating at 38.8% on Sept. 9, 2017, his first year in office. The lowest point of his term came on Dec. 16, 2017, with an average approval rate of 36.4%.
This claim is also wrong looking only at the YouGov poll.
YouGov reported Trumps approval rating never increased far above 40% and reached a term low of 34% in a poll conducted Nov. 10-14, 2017.
In other words, Trump’s low is well below Biden’s current level in YouGov polling.
According to Gallup, Trumps approval rating ranged between 34% and 49% over the course of his presidency. Trump hit the lower end of that range in January, following the insurrection at the Capitol.
Domestic Terrorism Is Seen As The Bigger Threat
With the 20-year anniversary of the 9/11 attacks coming up this month, a plurality 44% thinks the country is less safe than it was before the attacks, while 30% say its safer and a quarter say about the same.
Politics is at play in this question as well. Two-thirds of Republicans said the U.S. is less safe.
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Overall, more believe domestic terrorism 49% is a greater threat than international terrorism 41%.
Almost 7 in 10 Republicans said it was international terrorism, though, that was the bigger threat, while 7 in 10 Democrats said it was domestic terrorism.
Still, the overall number is a big shift from 2002 after 9/11 when by a 56%-to-30% margin in a CBS News poll, people said the opposite.
The survey of 1,241 adults was conducted Aug. 26 through Tuesday, via landline and mobile telephones. Survey questions were available in English and Spanish. The margin of error of the full sample was 3.8 percentage points. The margins of error for the subsets of Democrats, Republicans and independents were all larger.
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Poll of the week: A new Quinnipiac University poll finds that President Donald Trump’s approval rating stands at 34%, while his disapproval is at 61%. The same pollster put Trump at a 33% approve to 60% disapprove split last week.
What’s the point: Before we bid adieu: This story has been updated with more poll numbers released in Trump’s final days as president.
