Why Bernie Sanders Is The Only Candidate Who Can Beat Donald Trump
- Monday, Jan 20 2020
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Caleb Gates lives and works in Cedar Rapids. He provides case management to new refugee families and advocates for new Iowans. -promoted by Laura Belin
When I came to bed on election night 2016 and told my wife Donald Trump had won, she cried and asked me, Are you going to lose your job?
I worked with refugees. In December 2017 I learned Trumps anti-refugee policies were shutting down the program I worked for. I lost my job the following month.
I was blessed to find another job working with refugees, but many others in that field were not so fortunate. The Trump administration has stained the moral fabric of our country and decimated our global reputation. Many lives have been damaged or even destroyed as a direct result of the actions and decisions of this President. The stakes are high, and Democrats, independents, and even many Republicans feel it.
Look at every presidential election in the last 20 years. Every time a party has nominated the safe candidate, the electable candidate, Democratic or Republican, that candidate has lost. Al Gore, John Kerry, John McCain, Mitt Romney, and Hillary Clinton were all promoted as safe and electable. Every one lost.
I love some of Andrew Yangs ideas, but we need a president with political experience.
Amy Klobuchars support seems limited to the Midwest, and she has even less African-American support than Pete Buttigieg.
Who Can Debate Trump Who Cares
Lets stipulate: The GOPs fall campaign will be vicious No matter who the Democratic candidate is, he or she will be lambasted by Trumps machine Every Democrat in the race has exploitable flaws Incumbent presidents, especially those able to cite robust economic figures, have an enormous advantage Trumps base is solid, so the election will hinge on swing voters in a few battleground states.
Thanks to cable TV, social media and zealous opinion writers like me, Democrats cant stop second-guessing themselves. When a candidate shows a bit of spunk in a debate, we pivot and enthuse that he or she can take it to Trump. Its not going to work that way.
Trump will campaign by holding raucous rallies and attacking via Twitter. There is no guarantee that he will agree to even a single debate a possibility his team has already floated. He has successfully ignored everything from releasing his taxes to complying with congressional subpoenas, so clearly he will play by his own campaign rules. Trump prefers dancing toe to toe with sycophants like Sean Hannity and Presidential Medal of Freedom winner Rush Limbaugh.
Fix Trump’s mess or blow it up? Democrats should pick Door No. 1 and steer to the center.
This year, however, voters I spoke with in Nevada said things such as I like Pete but Im caucusing for Bernie , or Amy seems best, but Biden is safest. Second-guessing is inherent to the caucus process, which is one reason caucuses are likely to disappear after this cycle.
Bernie Vs The Billionaire
Perhaps the most promising feature of this scenario, though, is the vivid contrast made possible by a binary choice between Sanders and Trump.
Because Bernies politics emphasize class conflict, a Trump-Sanders contest promises to be not a mere clash of values and norms, of milieus and manners, but a referendum on the role of the rich and the rest in our society, with each contender representing different sides of the divide.
Sanders has already given us a preview of what this will look like. When he launched his campaign in March, he contrasted his upbringing to Trumps, saying, I did not have a father who gave me millions of dollars to build luxury skyscrapers, casinos, and country clubs. I did not come from a family that gave me a $200,000 allowance every year beginning at the age of three.
He continued, Unlike Donald Trump, who shut down the government and left 800,000 federal employees without income to pay their bills, I know what its like to be in a family that lives paycheck-to-paycheck.
In a rhetorical flourish that underscored the social implications of Trumps profiteering and juxtaposed them to his own lifelong commitment to equality, Sanders added, I did not come from a family that taught me to build a corporate empire through housing discrimination. I protested housing discrimination, was arrested for protesting school segregation.
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No One Can Tell Us Who Can Beat Mr Trump Because No One Knows
All we really know is that the last two Democratic presidents to win were dynamic performers on the stump who inspired people with optimism and were able to assemble a broad coalition.
As a potential member of that coalition, the single smartest act of political analysis one can perform may be to step back from the data, and ask yourself a simple question: How do the candidates make me feel?
Adam Jentleson, a progressive strategist and former deputy chief of staff to Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, is writing a book about the Senate.
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As Trump Reels Democrats Wonder Which Of Their Candidates Can Beat Him
There are moments in every presidential nomination contest when many strategists, donors and activists can more easily explain why each of the candidates cant win the nomination or the presidency rather than which ones can. That this feeling has begun to grip some Democrats at a time when things are going so badly for President Trump, however, is not at all typical.
On paper, the field of candidates running for the Democratic nomination is everything the partys rank and file might hope for. It is big, offering more choices than ever. It is experienced, with candidates from every level of government and beyond. It includes more women and minorities than ever at a time when their voices are redefining the party. It is generationally and geographically diverse.
Yet, to date, theres been little that has given Democrats the confidence that their nomination process will produce a challenger strong enough, appealing enough and politically skilled enough to withstand what will be a brutal general election against a weakened and vulnerable president. Trumps campaign is already running a general election loaded with cash and with months of time to try to shape voters perceptions of Democrats negatively before their nominee is even selected.
By weeks end, Trumps Syria missteps had been denounced in a critical Washington Post op-ed written by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell .
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There Are Some Obvious Problems With Biden
In an ideal world, the Democrats would likely want a nominee younger than Biden, who is 77.
Its also true that for a party coming off the historic election of the first African American president and that came within a razors edge of electing the first female president, theres something symbolically disappointing about retreating to another white man.
This is made worse by the fact that when he was pressed to address his problematic personal treatment of women near the launch of his campaign, Biden was perfunctory and dismissive.
Representation matters, and with Biden were not getting a real advance. But we dont live in an ideal world, and there isnt a younger and slightly more self-reflective version of Biden out there for Democrats to vote for.
Theres way too much thats both tangibly and symbolically at stake with Trumps presence in the White House for Democrats to ignore the overwhelming evidence that the politicians with something on the line in tough races think Biden is the best chance to beat him.
Chris Matthews Expresses Worries: Democrats ‘need To Find’ Candidate Who Can Beat Trump
MSNBC host Chris Matthews declared Monday that he’s “not happy with the field” of 2020 Democratic presidential candidates.
Matthews, a former speechwriter for President Carter, said he did not think Democrats had a candidate who could defeat President Trump
“What are my thoughts? Im not happy. Im not happy with this field. I think they have to find a candidate for president that can beat Trump,” Matthews said during a panel discussion Monday on “Morning Joe.”
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The telecast from Des Moines, Iowa, took place on the morning of the state’s caucuses. Sen. Bernie Sanders has emerged as the favorite to win the caucuses.
But Matthews was pessimistic on Sanders’s chances in the general election.
“Bernie Sanders is not going to be president of the United States,” he said.
Mathews then compared the excitement around the Sanders campaign to that of 1972 Democratic nominee George McGovern, who lost in a landslide to President Nixon by a 520-17 margin in the Electoral College while only winning 35 percent of the popular vote.
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Analysis: Drive To Beat Trump Unites Democrats Behind Biden
WASHINGTON Nearly everything in American life has changed in the 16 months between the launch of Joe Bidens White House campaign and his address Thursday night as the Democratic presidential nominee. A pandemic has killed more than 170,000 Americans and remade work and school. A soaring economy is now sagging.
Yet Bidens bet on the 2020 race has remained unchanged a belief that the nation is less partisan and more open to compromise than it often appears on social media or cable television panels. That voters are seeking decency over ideology, a reset over a revolution. That after four years of President Donald Trumps administration, what mattered most to Democrats was winning.
Many questioned Bidens premise during the primary, viewing the 77-year-old career politician as a candidate as out of step in age, race and ideology with a diverse party increasingly tilting to the left and seeking generational change. Some still worry that Biden wont draw out enough young and liberal voters this fall.
But Bidens nominating convention this week was filled with evidence validating his approach: that fierce opposition to Trump can unite a wide swath of the American electorate around an imperfect, yet personally respected and empathetic, candidate.
And as Biden stepped forward to accept his partys nomination Thursday, 33 years after he first ran for president, he vowed to put country not party or personal power above all else.
Who Can Beat Trump Who Knows
The Democratic candidates are all debating a singular issue. New polls offer insights, not answers.
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At Wednesday nights Democratic presidential debate, the candidates bickered and battled over health care policy over Michael Bloombergs record and his right to represent a party that he only recently rejoined over the possible dangers of nominating a democratic socialist.
But in a way, it all seemed like just window dressing around one big question: Who has the best chance in November? Every policy critique seemed to lead inexorably back to this issue of electability.
In his very first comments at the debate, Mr. Bloomberg didnt just criticize Senator Bernie Sanderss plan to create a single-payer health care system he said it would cause Democrats to lose the general election.
I dont think theres any chance of the senator beating President Trump, Mr. Bloomberg said. You dont start out by saying Ive got 160 million people, Im going to take away the insurance plan that they love.
Mr. Sanders shot back, arguing that Mr. Bloomberg, the former New York mayor, was a billionaire saying that we should not raise the minimum wage or that we should cut Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.
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Would Republican Attacks Knock The More Moderate Candidates Down To Sanderss Level
One concern about our findings is that Republicans who say they would vote for Biden or Buttigieg might not really do so in November, after the general election campaign has heated up. After months of sustained attacks from Trump and Republicans throughout the general election, would the more moderate candidates still be more electable than Sanders?
To examine this possibility, we first conducted an experiment to identify effective attacks against each of the Democratic candidates. For example, Bidens historical support for freezing Social Security benefits undermined his support, but hearing about Buttigiegs sexual orientation and the fact that he met his husband online did not decrease his support.
Then, to examine the resiliency of each Democrats support in the general election in the face of effective attacks, we showed some of our survey respondents the three attacks that were most effective against each Democrat before asking them who they would vote for in a contest between that Democrat and Trump.
After showing three attacks against each candidate, we find that Sanders would still need the same large youth turnout surge to overcome his deficit relative to the more moderate candidates against Trump. When we analyze the data using the same approach described above that disregards what voters say about whether they will vote, we find that, after being shown the attacks, Buttigieg, Bloomberg, and Biden still do better against Trump than Sanders does.
Joe Biden Isnt The Safe Bet To Beat Donald Trump Bernie Sanders Is
Joe Biden is a weak candidate who is more likely to lose to Donald Trump than Bernie Sanders. The best chance we have at ousting Trump is voting for Sanders in the rest of the primaries.
Bernie Sanders speaks at a Phoenix, Arizona, rally on March 5. Gage Skidmore / Flickr
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The Democratic primary race, with more than half the delegates still in play, is now between Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden. They have radically different policy platforms and political strategies, but for many voters, the most pressing concern is which of these two men has the best shot of beating Donald Trump in November.
Fundamentally, we worry that Biden is not running an inspiring campaign that can win. His message to struggling young people is give me a break things arent so bad. His message to climate activists and immigration activists who challenge his positions is go vote for someone else. And his message to Wall Street is nothing will fundamentally change.
The only Democrat to win the presidency since Bill Clinton was Barack Obama. Obama ran significantly to Hillary Clintons left in the primary, inspiring a generation with his vague but uplifting message of hope and change. Moderate Democrats who didnt run inspiring campaigns, such as Al Gore, John Kerry, and Hillary Clinton, didnt fare well.
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