Other Findings Of Note
We asked about Jewish voters choices in 2016 and found no difference in the sample as far as their party choice for president. While there was a slight increase in Democrat votes , voters for Donald Trump remained steady .
Jewish Biden voters do have some concerns about the future direction of their political party as far as Israel-related issues or anti-Semitism is concerned, but seem to be fairly confident on the policy regarding Iran. On Israel, 44.23% have no concern at all, while 55.7% have varying degrees of concern. Less than 14%, however, have a great deal or a lot of concern.
Jewish Biden voters concern regarding the future party position on Israel
Compare this with Jewish Trump voters, who, perhaps surprisingly to some, showed a greater concern for future Republican direction on Israel, with two-thirds expressing some degree of concern, and more than 32% expressing a great deal or a lot of concern.
Jewish Trump voters concern regarding the future party position on Israel
Regarding anti-Semitism, Biden voters show a similar pattern as with concern over Israel-related issues, with over 45% not concerned at all, and only 11.5% concerned a great deal, and only 9.8% concerned a lot.
Biden voters concern regarding the future party position on anti-Semitism
Jewish Trump voters concern regarding the future party position on anti-Semitism
Biden voters concern regarding the future party position on Iran
National Survey Of Jewish Voters
The Jewish Electorate Institute today released the results of a survey conducted on behalf of JEI from March 3 through April 3 of 800 self-identified registered Jewish American voters by GBAO Strategies, a research-based strategic counsel for candidates running for office, non-profits, and other organizations seeking to better understand public opinion.
JEI Chair Martin Frost said that this poll demonstrates that Jewish Americans continue to support President Biden and the Democratic Party at levels higher than the general American voting population. Key findings include
- 72% approve of Bidens handling of the war in Ukraine
- 70% think Trump has a great deal of influence over the Republican Party and 26% think he has some influence. A very striking percentage of Jewish voters think
- 68% think Trump is very responsible and 11% think he is somewhat responsible for the Jan 6 insurrection
- 60% think the Republican Party is very responsible and 17% think the Republican Party is somewhat responsible for the January 6 insurrection.
- 68% support the U.S. re-entering the Iran nuclear agreement.
JEI is an independent, non-partisan organization dedicated to deepening the publics understanding of Jewish American participation in our democracy. JEI is the foremost resource on Jewish voter political preferences, producing the top research, polling, and analysis critical to understanding the Jewish electorate.
for the survey results
One Last Dig Into The 2020 Jewish Vote
Two weeks have passed since election day, and theres nothing anyone wants more than to put this whole thing behind us. But before we do so, we need to settle the least important question of these elections, yet the one most likely to come up during your Thanksgiving, Passover or whatever family dinner table: How did the Jews vote?
As everyone probably knows, this question is far from being settled.
Ask Democrats, and theyll point to a J Streetexit poll which found that the Jewish vote went 77:21 percent in favor of Bidenan increase compared to Hillary Clintons results among Jewish voters in 2016.
Ask Republicans, and youll get a different answer. Theirpoll found that Trump increased his share of Jewish voters to 30.5 percent, while 60.6 percent voted for Biden.
Its a pretty big gap, but not one that surprises experts. Were not only talking about a tiny slice of the population, which is hard to measure in these types of polls, but also one that is not precisely defined .
For most, the difference is meaningless because the bottom line remains the same: American Jews vote by a large margin for Democratic candidates and did so this time.
But are there any scenarios in which tiny shifts in Jewish voting trendlines make a difference in real-life politics?
Sure.
Is there a bottom line?
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Why No Jew Should Vote For President Donald Trump: Take Two
Exactly four years ago, I reluctantly wrote take one of this article. As a historian who maintains a website that includes a section chronicling the history of American Presidential elections, and a book with the same title, and as someone with a regular column in Newsweek, called Tel Aviv Diary, I had attempted to remain non-partisan. Over the years, I have largely succeeded in maintaining objectivity regarding American politics. But, at that moment, when it had become clear that the election of President Donald J. Trump was a real possibility, I felt I had no choice but to speak out against what I saw the genuine danger to Jews and the State of Israel, not to mention to the United States, and the world-at-large.
Now, four years later, unfortunately, much of what I predicted has happened. Again, like last time, I will not touch on all of the areas that have made Trump the worst President in United States history, or all of the harm he has done to the world in this article. Ill leave that for my history website. Instead, I will focus on the ways in which Trump has been bad for Israel, and why he has been bad for Jews, through my lens as an American-Israeli.
With National Election Pool Not Posting Jewish Results Backers Of Democrats Or Republicans Publish Their Own Conflicting Numbers But Agree Most Voters Backed Biden
JTA â Itâs a Jewish ritual: Every four years after a presidential election, the question arises about how American Jews voted.
âCheck the Jewish exit pollsâ is the rallying cry.
Those days may be over.
Blame apples and oranges and other assorted fruit: There is no longer a single exit poll to compare and contrast. Thatâs left the field open to partisan Jewish groups to post polls claiming movement in the direction they favor.
For instance, a poll commissioned by the Republican Jewish Coalition found that 30.5 percent of Jewish voters voted for GOP incumbent Donald Trump nationally compared to 60.6% for Democratic challenger Joe Biden.
âItâs not just the embassy that moved. Jewish voters are moving, too,â Ari Fleischer, George W. Bushâs former press secretary, said on an RJC conference call November 4, the day after the election.
Meanwhile, a poll commissioned by the liberal group J Street found that 77% of Jewish Americans voted for Biden and only 21% for Trump.
âTrump pushed the Jewish vote further to the Democrats,â the groupâs pollster wrote in a memo summarizing the results.
The two polls align on the big picture that the vast majority of Jewish voters supported the Democrat, as has long been the case in national elections. But is either group correct about the change they say happened over the past four years?
In both surveys, foreign policy and Israel were among the lowest-ranked issues.
Thank you,
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A Jewish Revolving Door
Where do administration figures go when the pond freezes over?
No need to worry they all find jobs. Thats what corporate boards and think tanks are for.
For Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner, the future entails going back to their business operations, though it is still unclear if theyll do so from New York , or move with Donald to Florida.
Steve Mnuchin? He, too will probably go back to the business world.
Stephen Miller? That will be a more challenging fit, but the Breitbart/OANN/Newsmax ever-expanding ecosystem could be a good match.
And then theres David Friedman, Trumps ambassador to Israel does he stay on to live in the Holy Land? If he moves back, look for him to be the most sought-after speaker, board member, or even leader of any right-wing Jewish organizations.
Support For Trump Among Us Jews May Be Higher Than Predicted
The American-Jewish vote that has been traditionally and overwhelmingly Democrat might change in a significant way in Tuesdayâs U.S. presidential election. The reason is the substantial gap between the significant pro-Israel policies of U.S. President Donald Trump and those advocated by former Vice President Joe Biden.
Historically, the American-Jewish community has illustrated that when there is a discernible divide between the candidates concerning the issue of Israel, at least 10 percent swing to the candidate considered more favorable to it.
In an Aug. 27, 2019 article, Gallup senior scientist Dr. Frank Newport wrote that about nine in 10 American Jews are more sympathetic to Israel than to the Palestinians. Additionally, 95 percent of Jews have favorable views of Israel, while 10 percent have favorable views of the Palestinian Authorityâsignificantly more pro-Israel than the overall national averages of 71 percent favorable views of Israel and 21 percent favorable views of the Palestinian Authority.
It is not surprising that the left-wing Jewish organization J Street, with its own agenda in mind, repeatedly tries to release polls that paint a different view of the Jewish vote, contradicting the extensive polling of Gallup and the actual voting history of the Jewish community, which shows the accuracy of Newports analysis.
Farley Weiss is president of the National Council of Young Israel. He is an intellectual property attorney for the law firm of Weiss & Moy.
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What Does All This Mean For Israel And The Jewish
Our data raises the question of policy versus personality and emotion versus ideology.
While policy matters are certainly of concern to any concerned voter, we see here that when personality issues of any leader come into play, they clearly can override any logic applied to understanding any particular issue. This was seen with President Trump, who despite some unprecedented pro-Israel actions, was disliked by many Jewish-Americans.7 It also was seen with Prime Minister Netanyahu, for whom his decision to speak to Congress and break from the much-admired Barack Obama has not been forgotten or forgiven.8
Additionally, and perhaps related to the above finding, it also appears that many Jewish-Americans are increasingly more concerned about the principle and substance of certain issues as related to their personal ideology and party affiliation and are less inclined to apply identity-based labels such as pro-Israel to describe themselves or define their behavior.
The issue of personality should not be lost on policymakers. As noted by Lenny Ben-David , Foreign policy is not made by Washington or the White House. It is made by individuals, some of whom have biases against Israel, or in the case of Obama and his staff, deep dislike for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. Those biases must be explored when appointments and hires are made by the next administration.9
* * *
Could The Jewish Vote Decide The Election
These are the places Jewish voters could swing the election
A map showing the distribution of the Jewish electorate across the country.
In the run-up to the presidential election, BrandeisNOW asked faculty to provide analysis and insight into some of the most pressing issues facing the country. This story is part of the series.
If the 2020 presidential election is anything like 2016, it will be decided by a relatively small number of voters in a handful of battleground states. American Jews, who comprise less than 2.5% of the population, are small in number. Nevertheless, as the political upset in 2016 has made clear, every vote matters.
Historically, Jewish adults vote at rates higher than the national average, with some estimates putting the rate between 80 to 85%.
Because of their concentration in a few states and their relative homogeneity in political outlook, Jewish voters are an important part of the electoral math, especially in states or districts that are considered competitive.
In our research, we use Bayesian Multilevel Regression with Poststratification to synthesize data from hundreds of national surveys to develop profiles of the US Jewish population that include their geographic and demographic distributions. Our most recent work was a synthesis that included data from over 1.3 million US adults to provide Jewish population estimates within US congressional districts.
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Trump Versus Biden Voters
While the results reported above may hold true for our sample in general, we see strong differences between Trump and Biden voters, with our overall data being heavily influenced by the preponderance of the latter.
If we separate out the Trump voters , we see that their unequivocal support for Israel is much more definitive. Among those who voted for Trump, close to 87% were able to endorse the yes option on Q7 while only 11.9% chose the option The term is too vague for me to give a yes or no answer. On the question of the importance of Israel-related issues in their decision on how to vote, Biden voters rated a 42 while Trump voters rated a 68. Also, while only 20% of our sample of Biden voters stated that their Jewish identity played a role to a great deal in their voting, 32% of the Trump sample felt that way. While we must caution that the sample size of Trump voters is relatively small, the trend is noticeable and warrants further study.
Trump voters pro-Israel attitude
Biden voters pro-Israel attitude
The Younger Voter Under 60
Showing the same trends, younger Jewish voters choose character and trust far more than other issues as their most important or second most important issue with 57.9% selecting that option. Other issues ranked far behind, as in the general sample.
Under-60 choices for most important and second most important issue
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Jewish Voters Back Biden After Trump Says Voting Democrat Is ‘very Disloyal’: Poll
Jewish voters overwhelmingly backed former Vice President Joe Biden and his Democratic Party over President Donald Trump in Tuesday’s election, according to an exit poll published by the liberal J Street non-profit organization.
Votes are still being counted as of Wednesday morning, with the election a close race that will come down to a handful of swing states, particularly in the Midwest. Biden had been forecast to easily win the contest, but the election is going down to the wire.
Jewish voters went for Biden over Trump by a 77-21 margin according to J Street’s poll, conducted by the GBAO Strategies company and compiled between October 28 and November 3, surveying 800 voters. The margin of error was 3.5 percent.
Jewish voters backed Biden by a larger margin than they did defeated Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016, who won 70 percent of the vote to Trump’s 25 percent.
Jewish voters also supported down ballot Democratic candidates. Of those surveyed, 78 percent supported Democrats in their congressional races, compared with 21 percent for Republican candidates.
Despite Trump’s suggestions to the contrary, American policy on Israel was not the driving issue for Jewish voters. Trump has framed American Jews as primarily focused on Israel, an anti-Semitic trope that has earned him criticism from the Jewish community.
American Jews Are Liberal And Vote Democratic But Among Them Orthodox Jews Are Increasingly Voting Republican And Spouting Familiar Conspiracy Theories
Trump won the election. Places of worship must remain open during the pandemic. Antifa is more dangerous than white supremacists.
These views are standard among some evangelicals and Catholics.
But a new survey suggests that those views have permeated other religious groups, too, notably Americas small Orthodox Jewish community.
As a voting bloc, American Jews are liberal and vote Democratic but among them, Orthodox Jews, who strictly adhere to traditional teachings, are increasingly voting Republican and spouting familiar conspiracy theories former President Donald Trump has stoked.
A new survey of 449 Orthodox Jews showed that those who voted for Trump and those who voted for Biden had completely different views on the issues facing the country.
Among Orthodox Jewish Trump voters, Israel, Iran and terrorism were among the top concerns cited in a survey by Nishma Research, a Connecticut-based polling firm. Among Orthodox Jewish Biden voters, the coronavirus pandemic, bringing the country together and health care were the top three issues.
Overall, it seems pretty clear that Orthodoxy has shifted toward Trump, said Mark Trencher, president of Nishma and the studys lead researcher, noting that among those who voted Republican or Democrat, there were huge differences.
Critically, three-fourths of those who voted for Trump questioned the elections fairness.
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But This Doesnt Mean Jews Cant Unite Behind Bidens Agenda
President-elect Biden, for better or worse, is a moderate. And as such, it shouldnt be that difficult to get most Jewish voters, including many of those who voted against him, to agree on most of his policy proposals:
Coronavirus: Bidens decision to make this a priority should resonate well with the entire Jewish community. Except for the small faction ofHeshy Tischler followers in Borough Park, COVID deniers never made inroads among Jewish Americans, even those in the pro-Trump circles who took issue with limitations imposed by New Yorks Democratic governor and NYCs mayor.
Immigration: limiting immigration of all kindsone of Trumps hallmark policieshas never been an issue Jewish Republicans feel strongly about. Rolling back these restrictions is something they can easily support.
Taxes: This is more of an issue for old-time Jewish GOP supporters than for other pro-Trump Jews. It wont be easy for Biden to garner support on this issue from Jews who voted for his rival.
Israel: This should have been the big dividing issue, but in reality, the differences arent huge.
And Iran? Here its more about reality than policy. Biden would like to return to the nuclear deal . Still, since Iran has shifted away from the agreement following Trumps withdrawal, theres no easy path back to the agreement. A newly negotiated deal could probably win over many Jewish skeptics since it would be a bit stricter than the previous deal and would likely get more support from Israel.
