Thursday, May 9, 2024

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How Are The Polls Looking For Trump

Attitudes About Criminal Justice Reform Show Some Bipartisan Support

More Troubling Poll Results For President Trump – Day That Was | MSNBC

The latest poll asked voters some new questions about criminal justice reform. Seventy percent of registered voters in Tennessee think that the criminal justice system either needs a complete overhaul or major changes, nationally and in Tennessee.

While Democrats are slightly more likely to hold these beliefs , a majority of Republicans also express a strong desire for criminal justice reform.

When questioned about whether its preferable to give convicted murderers the death penalty or life imprisonment without the possibility of parole, 53 percent of those surveyed say life imprisonment is the preferable option. Thirty-seven percent responded that the death penalty is the better of the two choices. While there are some partisan differencesa slight majority of Republicans prefer the death penalty and 66 percent of Democrats prefer life imprisonment with absolutely no possibility of parolethe partisan divisions are not as great as those found on other issues.

Those insights come as Lee last month paused executions in Tennessee through 2022 after issuing a reprieve to inmate Oscar Franklin Smith due to a technical oversight in the lethal injection process.

Responses reflect a change in attitude since respondents answered this question in spring 2011, when 55 percent supported the death penalty over life in prison for convicted murderers.

What Reaction Has There Been

Quizzed by reporters on whether a president could delay the election, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said he would not “enter a legal judgement on the fly”. When pressed, he said the justice department would “make that legal determination”, adding “we want an election that everyone is confident in”.

Ellen Weintraub, chairwoman of the US Federal Election Commission, said Mr Trump did not have the power to move the election – and added: “Nor should it be moved.” She called for more funding for states to be able to run “the safe and secure elections all Americans want”.

Numerous Republicans – including Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and House of Representatives Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy – also dismissed the idea.

“Never in the history of the federal elections have we ever not held an election and we should go forward with our election,” Mr McCarthy said. Trump ally Senator Lindsay Graham meanwhile said a delay was “not a good idea”.

Democrats have also been lining up to condemn Mr Trump’s suggestion. New Mexico Senator Tom Udall said there was “no way” the president could delay the election.

“But the fact that he is even suggesting it is a serious, chilling attack on the democratic process. All members of Congress – and the administration – should speak out,” he said.

However Chris Stewart, a Republican congressman from Utah, said that while he did not support delaying the election, Mr Trump had a legitimate point about postal voting being hard to monitor.

Abortion A Contentious Issue

Abortion is at the forefront of national conversation as a draft Supreme Court opinionwas leaked that suggests the conservative majority may overturn a court case that ruled that people have a constitutional right to obtain an abortion.

The draft majority opinion, written by conservativeJustice Samuel Alito, attacks the landmark 1973Roe v. Wade decisionas incorrectly decided. A final opinion is expected to be published in late June.

Among Tennesseans surveyed, 48 percent identified as pro-choice, and 50 percent identified as pro-life. Overall, 36 percent of respondents said abortion should be legal in all cases. Seventy percent of Democrats polled favored abortion being legal, while only 8 percent of Republicans prefer pro-choice legislation.

Overall, while there is a strong partisan divide on this issue, only a minority of Tennesseans, including Republicans, want to make all abortion illegal. There is strong support for having abortion be either completely legal or legal under some conditions, such as in cases of rape and incest and when the health of the mother is at stake.

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Why Dont Big Differences In Candidate Preference And Party Affiliation Result In Big Differences In Opinions On Issues

Opinions on issues and government policies are strongly, but not perfectly, correlated with partisanship and candidate preference. A minority of people who support each candidate do not hold views that are consistent with what their candidate or party favors. Among nonvoters, support among partisans for their partys traditional positions especially among Republicans is even weaker. This fact lessens the impact of changing the balance of candidate support and party affiliation in a poll.

Theres almost never a one-to-one correspondence between the share of voters for a candidate and the share of people holding a particular opinion that aligns with the opinion of that candidates party. Three examples from a summer 2020 survey illustrate the point.

Poll: Nearly 60% Of Americans Say Trump Should Be Charged For Jan 6

Trump Dominates Polls as More Americans Say They

After three days of hearings examining the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol, a new poll found that a majority of Americans say that former President Donald Trump should face charges for his role in the insurrection.

What You Need To Know

  • A new ABC News / Ipsos poll published Sunday found that found that 58% of respondents believe that the former president should be charged for his role in the Jan. 6 riot
  • The results of the survey are mostly divided along party lines, with more than 90% of Democrats saying that Trump bears a âgreat dealâ or âgood amountâ of responsibility for the attack on the capital, compared with only 21% of Republicans
  • Though the hearings have already attracted millions of viewers, only 34% of those surveyed said they are following the committee’s investigation, with just 9% saying they are following it closely
  • Whether the hearings will have an impact on the upcoming midterms is still uncertain, with around half â 51% â of the respondents stating that the hearings have made no difference in how they plan to vote in the upcoming midterm elections

The new ABC News/Ipsos survey, published on Sunday, found that 58% of respondents believe that the former President should be charged with a crime for his role in the Jan. 6 attack, up from 52% in an ABC News/Washington Post poll from earlier this year.

More than 60% of independents polled say that the former president should be charged.

Read Also: How Many Times Did Trump Lie During The Debate

Limitations Of This Analysis

One strength of this analysis is that the election is over, and its not necessary to guess at what Trump support ought to have been in these surveys. And by using respondents self-reported vote choice measured after the election, we avoid complications from respondents who may have changed their minds between taking the survey and casting their ballot.

However, this study is not without its limitations. Its based on polls conducted by only one organization, Pew Research Center, and these polls are national in scope, unlike many election polls that focused on individual states. The underlying mechanism that weakens the association between levels of candidate support and opinions on issues should apply to polls conducted by any organization at any level of geography, but we examined it using only our surveys.

Another important assumption is that the Trump voters and Biden voters who agreed to be interviewed are representative of Trump voters and Biden voters nationwide with respect to their opinions on issues. We cannot know that for sure.

A Turn In The Polls For President Trump

Could President Trump’s stellar Mount Rushmore speech have maybe shifted his political fortunes? It was so good, so inspiring, so necessary in times like these.

Looking back on the 2020 election, historians will say the Mt. Rushmore speech was the moment that Donald Trump won reelection.

…wrote the estimable Roger Kimball, in American Greatness, in the hours after the speech.

So it’s natural to start looking for the upward turn in his poll numbers. Here’s one that held some promise:

Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Trump by 4 percentage points nationwide in a new Hill-HarrisX general election poll.

Forty-three percent of registered voters said they would support Biden for president if the election were held today.

Five percent of voters said they prefer someone else. An additional 5 percent of voters said they do not plan to vote in the election, one percentage point up from the same survey conducted last month.

Eight percent of voters are still undecided, down a percentage point from last month.

That’s because poll after poll has shown that Biden was beating Trump by eight to 12 points. Four points would signal a shift, yes, maybe a lessening of the frozen negative ground, maybe a trend that is our friend? One poll, out of a lot of them, sure, but maybe the others would follow?

Worse still, according to RealClearPolitics’ pollster scorecard, The Hill/Harris had Trump in a one-point deficit May 13-14, meaning Trump has declined.

Also Check: Cost To Stay In Trump Towers

Can Anybody Beat Mike Dewine

Governor Mike DeWine is in a similar position to many of his Republican colleagues: He has to first defeat a primary challenge before he can fully focus on November, a similar position toTexas Governor Greg Abbott, who easily won his primary in March.

While DeWine doesn’t have Trump’s endorsement, he has incredibly high name recognition in Ohio given his years as governor, attorney general, U.S. senator and congressman.

Former Congressman Jim Renacci and farmer Joe Blystone are hoping that lingering conservative anger over DeWine’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic may spur voters in a different direction.

Renacci, in a meeting with the Cleveland Plain Dealer’s editorial board last week, said DeWine “did not listen to the people” when he closed businesses and set other unilateral rules in 2020. DeWine said during that meeting that he believes he took a “middle-of-the-road position” on COVID and is “proud of what we did,” including pushing to open schools earlier than some planned last spring.

DeWine’s opponents have also tried to link him to an energy bribery scandal that took down top Ohio Republicans, including the former House speaker. DeWine has denied having any knowledge about any alleged improper actions by the person at the center of that scandal.

A Fox News poll released last week showed DeWine in a relatively safe position, leading his opponents with 43% of the vote. Renacci was at 24%, while Blystone had 19%.

Question3 Do You Approve Or Disapprove Of The Way The Democrats In Congress Are Handling Their Job

New Polls Put Trump In A Perilous Political Position | MSNBC
                     ADULTS.....................................................                                                               WHITE........                                                               4 YR COLL DEG                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    NoApprove              30%     5%    64%    23%    24%    35%    38%    21%Disapprove           60     93     28     66     66     54     58     69DK/NA                10      2      8     10     10     10      5     10                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HspApprove              24%    35%    30%    33%    19%    33%    26%    53%    26%Disapprove           56     57     65     62     73     58     65     37     63DK/NA                20      8      6      5      8      9      8     10     12

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Trump Leads Biden By 7% In Slu/yougov Poll

Joe Biden leads Donald Trump rather comfortably in national polling with a average of about 9%, 49% to 40%. Biden also leads Trump in most Battleground states. However, our SLU/YouGov Poll shows Trump with a rather comfortable lead in Missouri among likely voters, 50% to Bidens 43%.

Missouri was once touted as the nations best bellwether state during the 1900s, but Missouri has been trending red, especially in presidential elections since Bill Clinton won Missouri in 1992 and 1996. Missouri has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since, voting for George W. Bush twice, John McCain, Mitt Romney, and Donald Trump with Romney and especially Trump winning by large vote margins.

Support among men and women for Trump in Missouri is also down from 2016, from 62% to 56.5% for men and from 53% to 43% among women. Although Trump still shows strong support among voters without a college degree, his support among four-year college graduates is sharply down. Among these college graduates, he has fallen from 55% support in 2016 to 41% in our poll. While 45% of males with four-year college degrees say they will vote for Trump, only 36% of four-year college degreed women say they will.

Who Won The Presidential Debates

Donald Trump and Joe Biden went head-to-head in two live TV debates.

The first, on 29 September, was a chaotic affair, with Mr Trump’s combative approach stamping out any chance of a real debate.

A CBS News/YouGov poll taken straight afterwards suggested it was a good night for Mr Biden.

Of those who watched, 48% said Mr Biden was the winner while 41% went for Mr Trump – a similar split to national polling averages. Nearly 70% of people said the debate made them feel “annoyed”.

In the second debate, on 22 October, organisers introduced a mute button to help police the arguments.

But it was a much more restrained President Trump on show and there was a much greater focus on the policies of the two candidates.

While that seemed to help Mr Trump somewhat, snap polls still suggested viewers thought Mr Biden’s performance was more impressive.

A CNN poll found 53% of viewers thought the Democrat had done a better job in the debate, while 39% went with Mr Trump.

A YouGov snap poll was similar, with 54% saying Mr Biden had won compared to 35% for the president.

So while Mr Trump put in a better performance, it’s unlikely to have been enough to change the balance of the race on its own.

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Economics Likely To Trump Ethnicity In Kenyas August Poll


Kenyans go to the polls on 9 August, and for the first time, the contest is dominated by class rather than ethnicity. Kenya has a painful history of violence during its election seasons. The lowest ebb was after the 2007 elections when 1 100 people were killed and 650 000 displaced, resulting in a controversial International Criminal Court case.

Four candidates are cleared to run for the presidency. The two main contenders are former prime minister Raila Odinga and the current deputy president, William Ruto. The country faces an increasing debt burden, higher taxation and a weakened shilling. The key issue swaying voters is the economy, exacerbated by post-COVID-19 global inflation that has sent essential commodities prices soaring, according to International Crisis Group.

The economy will be the main battleground in the competition for votes, with debates over class likely to trump ethnic allegiance.

Ruto has firmly positioned himself as a populist leader with hishustler nation slogan designed to position him as the preferred candidate for working-class Kenyans. He is challenging what he describes as the dynasty politics of his rival Odinga, who is making his fifth bid for the presidency, backed by President Uhuru Kenyatta, who is barred constitutionally from running again.

Despite both sides ethnic arithmetic, it is the candidates record on delivery that will count

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